The tropical system that braved Africa and the Atlantic Basin is now awash with a few thunderstorms and not much else. This was a no-brainer. At the outset you had barely a disturbance and the 20% was a stretch. I do like the more expansive descriptions and degrees of separation. It is very impotant to understand that and an inter-active discussion yields a more informed public.
As forecasted here, I saw very little justification. Out!
The Valley, Elmira area of NY State. The area has not seen this kind od flooding, some 40 years ago. Route 17 (Highway) has been closed. Bridges and other structures will need major repairs.
A drier regime will inch it’s way into the Valley and all the way to near Buffalo. This drie air will continue to punch its way into most of NY/PA.
Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch National Weather Service State College PA 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-291000- /O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-170729T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 310 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... The Flash Flood Watch continues for * A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Perry, Somerset, and York. * Through Saturday afternoon * Heavy rainfall of two to three inches with local amounts of over four inches is possible, especially in higher terrain. Areas that received the heavy rainfall last weekend are most susceptible to flooding. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Review flood safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/flood.
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.
.DAY ONE…Today and Tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.
Flash Flood Watch.
Some storms could contain gusty winds and small hail this afternoon
and evening.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Saturday through Thursday.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.
Flash Flood Watch.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 327 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291145- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 327 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas east and south of a line from Killeen to Denton to Sulphur Springs through 8 pm this evening. There is a small chance of thunderstorms late today and tonight, mainly northeast of a Breckenridge to Dallas to Canton line. Gusty downburst winds, brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. Most locations will remain rain-free through tonight, however. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday. However, it will remain hot, especially across Central Texas where temperatures will reach or exceed 100 degrees, and some areas will experience heat index values in excess of 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for much of Central Texas on Saturday afternoon. Low thunderstorm chances will linger across the region Saturday and for areas mainly west of I-35 Saturday night through Tuesday. All of North and Central Texas will see increasing thunderstorm chances by the middle of next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$
Heat Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...Heat Advisory remains in effect late today east and south of a Killeen to Denton to Sulphur Springs line through 8 pm, then continues Saturday afternoon east and south of a Killeen to Glen Rose to Terrell/Canton line on Saturday afternoon... TXZ103>105-107-117>120-123-131-133-134-290100- /O.CON.KFWD.HT.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170729T0100Z/ Denton-Collin-Hunt-Hopkins-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Rains- Hood-Johnson-Ellis- Including the cities of Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Sulphur Springs, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, and Midlothian 232 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING... * TEMPERATURE...High temperatures from 95 to 102 degrees. * HEAT INDEX...105 to 110 degrees. * IMPACTS...Individuals and pets outdoors during peak heating without adequate shade and/or water may succumb to heat exhaustion or heat stroke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Be sure to check on persons with health problems and the elderly...as they are the most susceptible to heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Never leave young children or pets in an enclosed vehicle...even for a short time...as temperatures can quickly rise to life threatening levels. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency - call 911.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 556 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017 UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-291200- Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Northern Wasatch Front- Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys-Southern Wasatch Front- Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Wasatch Mountain Valleys- Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80- Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs- Western Uinta Basin-Castle Country-San Rafael Swell- Sanpete/Sevier Valleys-West Central Utah-Southwest Utah- Utahs Dixie and Zion National Park-South Central Utah- Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Central Mountains- Southern Mountains-Southwest Wyoming- 556 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of Utah and southwest Wyoming. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Moisture will maintain a threat for showers and thunderstorms across the outlook area. These storms will be most numerous over the higher terrain, as well as across southern and eastern Utah. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A gradual drying trend is expected across the north over the weekend into early next week, while moisture remains in place across the south, maintaining a threat for showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall through at least Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. $$ For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity For information on potential road travel impacts visit... http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 443 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017 UTC017-025-037-290100- /O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-170729T0100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Garfield UT-San Juan UT-Kane UT- 443 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUAN AND EASTERN KANE COUNTIES... At 438 PM MDT, Rainfall continues across the southern border of the flash flood warning. However, the majority of the precipitation has moved out of the area. Radar rainfall estimates across the majority of this are includes around an inch, with selected areas of 2+ inches of precipitation. This area is highly flash flood prone, and is traveled by hikers, canyoneers, and campers in the Coyote Gulch area and other slot canyons along the Hole In The Rock Road. Flash flooding is expected to continue until the evening hours. Depending on further thunderstorm development, flooding may continue into the night time hours. Please use prudent judgement when traveling through this area until the morning hours of Saturday.
Excessive Heat Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Medford OR 227 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 CAZ080>083-ORZ023>028-290930- /O.NEW.KMFR.EH.A.0001.170731T1800Z-170804T0300Z/ Western Siskiyou County-Central Siskiyou County- South Central Siskiyou County- North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County- Central Douglas County-Eastern Curry County and Josephine County- Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County- South Central Oregon Cascades- Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades- Including the cities of Etna, Fort Jones, Yreka, Weed, Mount Shasta, Dunsmuir, Mccloud, Roseburg, Sutherlin, Green, Myrtle Creek, Canyonville, Glendale, Grants Pass, Cave Junction, Steamboat, Toketee Falls, Medford, Ashland, Union Creek, Howard Prairie, and Siskiyou Summit 227 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Medford has issued an Excessive Heat Watch...which is in effect from Monday morning through Thursday evening. * Valley Temperatures: Daily high temperatures of 100 to 110 degrees, with overnight lows of 65 to 75 degrees. * Mountain Temperatures: Daily high temperatures of 95 to 100 degrees, with overnight lows of 70 to 75 degrees. * Locations include: Most of Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, and Siskiyou counties, including Medford, Roseburg, Grants Pass, Montague, Mount Shasta City, and the Cascades. * Impacts: Very high temperatures and limited relief overnight will increase chances for heat related illness, especially for sensitive groups and people without access to air conditioning. Heat stress is possible for livestock and outdoor pets. Also, area rivers still run cold and fast, increasing the risk for hypothermia and water rescues. * View the hazard area in detail at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD Precautionary/preparedness actions... * An Excessive Heat Watch means that a prolonged period of hot temperatures is expected. * These hot temperatures are likely to create a DANGEROUS SITUATION in which heat illnesses are possible. * Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, and stay out of the sun.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Melbourne FL 900 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141- 144-147-290500- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia- Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County- Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County- Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin- Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County- Northern Brevard County- 900 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop across the area into the afternoon. Greatest coverage of this activity is expected toward Brevard County and the Treasure Coast into mid to late afternoon, where sea and lake breeze boundary collisions are favored. A few stronger storms will be possible, producing frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. Storm motion will be toward the east around 10 to 15 mph. .EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT... Hot temperatures with highs in the mid 90s and high humidity today will again create a dangerous situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air- conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. .MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... Isolated to scattered storms will develop this afternoon, moving eastward around 10 to 15 knots across inland lakes and offshore, especially from the Cape southward from mid to late afternoon. Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts in excess of 34 knots. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Drier air and lack of an east coast sea breeze will keep thunderstorm coverage below normal Saturday. Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching frontal trough will then lead to scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms Sunday afternoon into early next week. The main threats from storms will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today. $$
Floyd, Times Are Changin 