Weather Forecasts Optional

The Weather System moving into and through the Lower Mississippi Valley producing locally heavy rain and shower activity.    Associated with this front is some fairly gusty winds also.

Early Wednesday we had significant cloudiness over the Carolinas and because of that the temperatures remained relatively mild.

Infrared Satellite Image

Water Vapor Satellite Image

 

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Weather – A Tale of Two Wednesdays, October 30th, 2013, 0500L Eastern

This Wednesday sees a pretty vigorous cold front sliding to the east,  while unseasonably warm temperatures are to be replaced by cooler, drier air.  

But weather seldom remains stagnant very long and before long we have another strong system located north of Alaska and Canada.    Each time one of these systems move through the weather becomes winterlike and the forecasts become rife with snow forecasts.

This forecast above reflects rainfall amounts potential and the final chart above is valid from Friday to Saturday.

The above charts show the system exiting this weekend and by midweek next week will see yet another round of rains and clouds.

Continental US (NHEM) Sector Infrared

 

Weatherwise but Pound Foolish

Weather can be an enigma as  daily forecasters toil with their reputations hanging in the balance.   This has been this kind of weak and it seems that Friday the big system producing snow in the Rockies gets to the Eastern Seaboard.  Rain chances went from 20% to near 80% in some estimates.

Regardless,  we will see rain this Friday and if they get more support from the new disturbances then rain fall totals could be around .25″ or more.     I knew and could feel something was developing.    That sixth sense of something.

Feminists run amok – The War of the Roses

In Sublime irony they exist.

aged mannequins with diamond eyes

who strive with pride and flippancy.

They crisscross the boundaries inducing

encroachment and then reproach.

Silver haired Jackels with sharpened faces

and tawdry graces.

Sublime,  pretentious and curt.

Like clever little scorpions

stinging who the may.

The treasure box is locked,

containing lucre turned to dust.

—  I am on a dating site in which the owner (a man) has set standards so high that some women (many in fact) take advantage of the men.

–    Granted some are justified in their derision but there is an irony here.

Many speak as if they have a royal flush when they onlyhave a cracked mirror

a few valium and a glass of wine.

If you look at the bottom of their profile announcing things like

if I ignore you too bad,  deal with it.

Strange they want respect and give none.

Not every man is a dog and this is true of women too.   However one lady who says in her profile that she is looking for sex,   is dressed in short shorts with her legs wide open and suggestively and with no bra.

This is kind of like bait and switch and endorsed by the site’s owner.   It is actually wimpy to play sides.   Again the men that are pigs need to go.   But when the list is long,  too long,  then I get the scent of a bitch.

In stark contrast are the women who are equally beautiful but who tell me that many women will not even read their posts and delete them and then laugh.

There are comments like you must not have asked for sexual favors (reworded) and a litany of things that is no one else’s business.

The Weather story continues to evolve around a very well defined surface low pressure area and causing at the very least the chance for heavier rains on the order of four plus inches.   Like I have said before weather is more about potential and then met or unmet expectations.   The formula is as elusive as the Higgs Boson was.

In attempt to enlighten people I try to explain why as simply as I can and when I hear misinformation it is like a spelling mistake to an English teacher.

Weathering Heights – Monday October 28th, 2013

The storm system over the Rockies is there and trying to gain strength and deposit some of the white fluffy stuff.  A return of southerly winds in the Southeast US will produce rain as temperatures are forecasted to be over 70 degrees.

Featured below is the weather forecast progged for Wednesday.   Warm moist air is expected with that southerly breeze.

 

 

Forecast for precipitation on Wednesday.

Thursday

 

 

Weathering Heights Redux

As I said early last week we do have a major storm coming to the Eastern US.    The biggest questions are when and how much?   It appears the timing is looking towards the end of the week,  perhaps Friday.

While some forecasters use only data that misses come crucial aspects of a forecast.   Like,   is that computer model handling a situation well?   If not,  how to reconcile the differences into a forecast that will benefit the most amount of people.

Over the next few days this system will affect the west and the Rockies producing a major winter storm across the Rocky Mountain Region.

The Eastern US will see the storm system complex now over the Rockies  being influenced by other systems.   We will keep you up-to-date over these changes and any relevant information like storm warnings.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2013

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 28 2013 – 00Z Wed Oct 30 2013

…Heavy rain possible over parts of the Central Plains…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average for parts of the
Northern High Plains…

A developing deep upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest will dig
southward to the Great Basin by Tuesday.  In the meantime a front
extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains then into the
Northern Rockies will move off the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by
Monday night.  The boundary will produce light rain over parts of the
Upper Great Lakes that will move into the Northeast/Lower Great Lakes by
Monday morning, with snow at the higher elevations of the interior
Northeast.  The snow will end overnight Monday.

The digging upper-level trough will produce light snow over parts of the
Northern High Plains and expand into the Great Basin, post frontal, by
Monday and into parts of the Higher elevations of eastern California into
the Central Rockies by Tuesday morning.  As the upper-level trough
deepens, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will move northward over
the Southern/Central Plains.  A much weaker upper-level impulse moving
from the Central Gulf Coast to  off the Southeast Coast will trigger
evening showers and thunderstorms, on Sunday evening,  along with
nighttime rain over parts of the Central Gulf Coast into the Tennessee
Valley/Central Appalachians Monday into Monday evening.

The moisture will overrun the east-west front over the Plains/Mississippi
Valley producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday.  Rain will develop
north of the boundary on Tuesday from parts of the Central High Plains to
the Middle Mississippi Valley.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

VALID 12Z WED OCT 30 2013 – 12Z SUN NOV 03 2013

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST…WHICH INCLUDES A LARGE-SCALE FLOW
PATTERN CHANGE…LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING THROUGH THIS DAY 3-7
PERIOD.

THE 27/00Z ECENS/NAEFS AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS
WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT…EVEN WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES–OUT THROUGH DAY 6. WPC MANUAL SURFACE GRAPHICS
CONTINUE WITH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES OPEN WAVE CYCLONE SOLUTION
THAT QUICKLY WRAPS AND INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ONTARIO.

THE 27/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DEEP OCCLUDED
CYCLONE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND REMAINS A FASTER SOLUTION
THAN ITS MEAN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN SIMPLE TERMS…IT
ALL BOILS DOWN TO THE JET STREAK EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES AROUND 31/00Z (DAY 3.5) AND THE GFS ALLOWING NEARLY ALL
THE ENERGY/VORTICITY ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THAT FEATURE. THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE JET
STREAK BUT ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE BULK OF
THE VORTICITY EJECTING OUT OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN
KANSAS.

AS A RESULT…THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS THE FASTEST SURFACE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD DAY 6. TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST 3-4
DAYS…WE DISCOUNTED THE GFS TODAY.

VOJTESAK

I wanted everyone to see that these discussions are widely varied and accounts for some of the confusion.   The airmasses are fluid and subject to changes in the 3-dimensions.     Over the weeks and through this winter,  I will keep you abreast of the weather and some Meteorology to help you understand it.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=12&day=null

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/prob32/prob32.html

Please check the above the dynamic models which will give you a look at the storms in motion and including watch areas.

National High and Low Temperature (for the contiguous United States)
NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD
Issued 8 pm EDT Sunday, October 27, 2013

High Temperature for Sunday, October 27, 2013
(as received by 8 pm EDT October 27)
94 at El Centro, CA

Low Temperature for Sunday, October 27, 2013
(as received by 8 pm EDT October 27)
11 at Stanley, ID

 

 

 

 

 

Weathering Heights – Sunday October 27th, 2013 – 0200 L

Last week we discussed the possibility of a major storm system and it appears now that it is coming to fruition as a very strong Cold Front dives into the Rockies.   The big question is where the Low ends up and will it get any other support by virtue of Cyclogenesis.  (Low pressure forming).      This current system has brought cooler than normal temperatures to the Eastern and Gulf States.  Conversely warmer than  normal temperatures across the western 1/3 of the country.  

The next twenty four to forty eight hours will indicate any new disturbances which could make this a winter snow storm or a disturbed area that produces snow over the higher elevations and near Upper Northeast.

Infrared Satellite Image

Water Vapor Satellite Image

National Weather Outlook