WWII – Internment

via Santo Tomas Internment Camp

Advertisements

Hurricane Irma go West!!!~

mfl

This current fix (position) is helpful for me.   My daughter resides in Palm Beach and while Irma’s tentacles stretch encompasses most of the southern 2-3rds of Florida, it would be beneficial for me and a great many of Florida.

214634_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago
indicate that Irma’s intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane’s circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon’s NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant
storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has
increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is
possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation.
Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and
property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from
local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. The highest amounts are expected
over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma
will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.1N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 35.0N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 13/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND

=============================================================

two_atl_0d0 (2)

GULFWV172512145

214634 (1)

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…
…HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 345 MI…555 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…925 MB…27.32 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of
Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the
peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast
of Florida to Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote
River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/
Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna
Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest
is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to
remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the
southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected
to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast
of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of
southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or
early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central
and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos…additional 1 to 3
inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward…4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina…4 to 7 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
morning across south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

========================================================================

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FOR EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO SEBASTIAN INLET… AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF VENICE TO THE ANCLOTE
RIVER… INCLUDING TAMPA BAY… AND FROM PONCE INLET TO THE FLAGLER/
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO VENICE
* FLORIDA KEYS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF VENICE TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY… CIEGO DE AVILA… SANCTI
SPIRITUS… AND
VILLA CLARA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO… HOLGUIN… LAS TUNAS AND MATANZAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO… HOLGUIN… AND LAS TUNAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE… IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS… CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA… FLORIDA… AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 76.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…….100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT…….160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 180SE 60SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 76.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT…170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT…170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT…GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT…170NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT…GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…190NE 170SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 150SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 35.0N 85.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

=======================================================================

 

HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1
NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135
KTS…155 MPH…250 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9)

CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)

GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 5(33) 1(34)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) 1(29)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) 1(43)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)

KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 62(64) 3(67) X(67)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) 1(30)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)

WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 8(66) 1(67)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) 1(24)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)

MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 65(69) 1(70) X(70)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 2(32) X(32)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) 2(73) 1(74)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 76(84) 1(85) X(85)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 2(52) X(52)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 67(82) X(82) X(82)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) X(47) X(47)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24)

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 73(90) X(90) X(90)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 61(62) 1(63) X(63)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 61(93) X(93) X(93)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 60(64) 1(65) X(65)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 49(85) X(85) X(85)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) X(47) X(47)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25)

PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 31(37) 48(85) X(85) 1(86)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 44(58) 28(86) X(86) X(86)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 34(45) X(45) X(45)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21)

W PALM BEACH 34 2 5( 7) 28(35) 43(78) 11(89) X(89) X(89)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20)

FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 11(14) 44(58) 29(87) 5(92) X(92) X(92)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 11(11) 36(47) 9(56) X(56) X(56)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25)

MIAMI FL 34 3 20(23) 50(73) 20(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95)
MIAMI FL 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 40(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38)

HOMESTEAD ARB 34 4 30(34) 48(82) 14(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 2( 2) 35(37) 35(72) 5(77) X(77) X(77)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 10(10) 31(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45)

MARATHON FL 34 4 50(54) 41(95) 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 50 X 6( 6) 72(78) 17(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
MARATHON FL 64 X 1( 1) 50(51) 28(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81)

KEY WEST FL 34 3 35(38) 53(91) 6(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 3( 3) 59(62) 20(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 35(35) 28(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64)

NAPLES FL 34 1 6( 7) 44(51) 41(92) 5(97) X(97) X(97)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 56(65) 17(82) X(82) X(82)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 21(64) X(64) X(64)

FT MYERS FL 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 51(83) 13(96) X(96) X(96)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 30(78) X(78) X(78)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 34(60) X(60) X(60)

VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 47(60) 26(86) X(86) X(86)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 40(62) X(62) X(62)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) X(46) X(46)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 51(86) X(86) X(86)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 56(62) X(62) X(62)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 64(75) X(75) X(75)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 1(47) X(47)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 4(48) X(48)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 2(50) X(50)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 1(38) X(38)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 1(38) X(38)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) X(27)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)

BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16)

WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 5( 8) 13(21) 24(45) 11(56) X(56) X(56)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 20 10(30) 6(36) 5(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ANDROS 34 83 2(85) 1(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
ANDROS 50 11 4(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ANDROS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GREAT EXUMA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

SAN SALVADOR 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

HAVANA 34 2 18(20) 33(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
HAVANA 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ISLE OF PINES 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

CIENFUEGOS 34 15 63(78) 7(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
CIENFUEGOS 50 2 26(28) 10(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

CAMAGUEY 34 92 1(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
CAMAGUEY 50 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
CAMAGUEY 64 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MONTEGO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X(4)

============================================================================

 

IRMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

.HURRICANE IRMA

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

FLZ069-070-073>078-168-172>174-090600-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ054-059-064-160-162-165-265-090600-
/O.UPG.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ063-066>068-071-072-090600-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ056>058-061-255-260-262-090600-
/O.UPG.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ155-090600-
/O.UPG.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017$$

FLZ047-141-147-090600-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ050-151-090600-
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ041-044>046-052-053-144-251-090600-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ043-139-142-148-149-239-242-248-249-090600-
/O.EXA.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

===========================================================

http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl#hti

You can find  more information in the link above.   PLEASE DO THAT!!

And right behind that,  Hurricane Jose.  Pray for your loved-ones and what has turned out to be,  a virtual nightmare!!!

Be safe Rachel!

AMX_loop (2)

Hurricane Local Statement

Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 39
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-090530-

Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 39
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL112017
530 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

This product covers South Florida

**MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Broward, Coastal Collier, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal
      Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland Collier, Inland
      Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and Metro Miami-Dade
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Glades, Hendry, Inland
      Broward, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, and Metro Palm Beach

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 340 miles southeast of Miami FL or about 430 miles
      southeast of Naples FL
    - 22.1N 76.5W
    - Storm Intensity 155 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Category 4 Hurricane Irma continues to move west northwest across
the southern Bahamas this afternoon, and will impact South Florida
beginning Saturday. Hurricane Irma continues to remain a severe and
extremely dangerous threat for all of South Florida. Direct major
hurricane landfall is likely somewhere across South Florida this
weekend.

The primary concerns continue to be for catastrophic major hurricane
force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Additional concerns
include the potential for flooding rainfall, isolated tornadoes,
significant beach erosion and surf, and life-threatening rip currents.

Depending on the eventual track of Hurricane Irma, flash flooding is
also possible around portions of Lake Okeechobee in association with a
possible overwash or minor to moderate overtopping of the Herbert
Hoover Dike. Interests near Lake Okeechobee should heed the orders of
local and state emergency management officials.

Preparations to protect life and property are strongly urged to be
completed by tonight. All persons in South Florida should take shelter
by early Saturday morning. Hurricane Irma is a potentially deadly
situation and should not be taken lightly. Everyone is urged to
exercise extreme caution in order to protect their lives.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across coastal Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and Collier
counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant to extensive impacts across the immediate coast of Broward
and Palm Beach counties.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across all of South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets, parking lots and underpasses become submerged. Driving
      conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with
      some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Broward County: Mandatory evacuation ordered for areas east of
Federal Highway, barrier islands, low-lying areas, and mobile homes.

Collier County: Mandatory evacuations of locations south and west of US
41, and those living in mobile homes.

Miami-Dade County: Mandatory evacuation of mobile homes, evacuation
zone A, zone B, portions of zone C, and barrier islands which
include Bal Harbour, Bay Harbour Islands, Golden Beach, Indian Creek
Village, Miami Beach, North Bay Village, Sunny Isles Beach, and
Surfside.

Palm Beach County: Mandatory evacuation of zones A and B, as well as
mobile homes and flood-prone areas. Voluntary evacuation of zone C.
Effective at 10 AM Friday.

For further information, contact 311 for Miami-Dade and Broward counties
and 211 across the rest of South Florida.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Check-in with your emergency points of contact among family, friends,
and workmates. Inform them of your status and well-being. Let them
know how you intend to ride out the storm and when you plan to
check-in again.

Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.

In emergencies it is best to remain calm. Stay informed and focused
on the situation at hand. Exercise patience with those you encounter.
Be a good neighbor and help others.

If relocating to a nearby shelter or to the home of a family member
or friend, drive with extra caution, especially on secondary roads.
Remember, many bridges and causeways will be closed once higher winds
arrive. Also, if you encounter water covering the road, seek an
alternate route. Always obey official road signs for closures and
detours.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$



 

Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Miami FL
538 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068>075-168-172>174-090800-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0005.170908T2138Z-170912T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-Inland Broward-
Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Mainland Monroe-
Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-
Far South Miami-Dade-
538 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
  following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Collier, Coastal
  Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland
  Broward, Inland Collier, Inland Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe,
  Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.

* Through Monday evening.

* Excessive rainfall from Hurricane Irma which will lead to
  possible widespread flooding.

* Impacts: Flood waters entering structures, significant to major
  street flooding with road closures, areas of rapid inundation at
  underpasses, low lying, and poor drainage areas, and possible
  evacuations and rescues due to flood waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$


 

Hurricane Warning

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 39
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL112017
520 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068-090530-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
520 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Boca West
    - Palm Springs
    - Florida Gardens
    - Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
          until early Monday morning

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
          major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
          equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
        - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
          devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
          to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
        - Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
          Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
          loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
          shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
          roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
          homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
          projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
          months.
        - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
          and roadway signs blown over.
        - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High
        - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
          major flooding where peak rainfall totals well exceed
          amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation.
          Rescues and emergency evacuations are likely.
        - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
          extensive flooding rain impacts.
        - Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or significant loss of
          life. If flood related watches and warnings are issued,
          heed recommended actions. Poor decisions may result in
          being cut off or needlessly risk lives. If vulnerable,
          relocate to safe shelter on higher ground before flood
          waters arrive.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Flood control systems and barriers may
          become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets, parking lots and underpasses become
          submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road
          and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is favorable for tornadoes

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate
        - The tornado threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - When implementing emergency plans, include should include a
          reasonable threat for scattered tornadoes.
        - To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of
          significant tornado impacts.
        - Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to
          shelter quickly if a tornado approaches.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
          spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
          communications failures.
        - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
          homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
          or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
          about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Florida  ----------------------


 

 

Tropical Unrest.

A few weeks ago we were basking in relative calm.   Even those systems would steer away into the Central Atlantic.  Those in the area of the Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico.   But something was afoot,   I sensed a problem when the system slowed and gathered moisture and dumped tons of rain.

This was the perfect storm.   Harvey began to ramp up.  I referenced this slowing and the dangers, in so many words.   I did not expect what happened.   It was NOT climate change.   It was an anomaly and weather is about changes.  It’s highs and lows, tightening  pressure gradients and a myriad of other things.

As a consequence of what had happened, thousands were displaced and hungry,  exposed and afraid.  Let’s not criticise people who are doing the best they can.

Going forward,  there are new challenges and new storm systems.  This evening here in North Carolina, we are experiencing lower  clouds before the rain.    There is a quasi-stationary front (warm sector) which will keep the temperatures rather uniform, with overnight lows 68-70.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
448 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
448 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible along and south of southward
drifting cold front Friday afternoon and into Friday night. There is
a good chance for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing
tornadoes as well as damaging wind gusts. In addition, locally heavy
rain is expected which may lead to flash flooding, especially in poor
drainage areas.

US (5)

southmissvly_loop

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1101 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-011915-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1101 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

The remnants of Harvey will approach Alabama and is expected to
bring a threat for brief tornadoes to the forecast area. The threat
could continue until 10 PM. The best chance for brief tornadoes
should generally be along and northwest of a line from Selma to
Clanton to Wedowee, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
farther south and east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through tonight.

$$



 

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
249 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...Gusty Winds Possible Across North Central Alabama...

ALZ011>015-017>020-024-026-011100-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WI.Y.0007.170831T1949Z-170901T2100Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-
Cherokee-Jefferson-St. Clair-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette,
Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre,
Birmingham, Hoover, Pell City, and Moody
249 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 4 PM CDT Friday.

* TIMING...will continue through Friday afternoon.

* WINDS...will be between 15 and 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...of the strong winds may break small limbs and cause
  hazardous driving conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 35 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for
high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$



 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

TORNADO WATCH 476 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC007-009-021-033-043-047-057-059-063-065-073-075-077-079-083-
091-093-103-105-107-117-119-125-127-133-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0476.170831T1615Z-170901T0100Z/

AL
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB                 BLOUNT              CHILTON
COLBERT              CULLMAN             DALLAS
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            GREENE
HALE                 JEFFERSON           LAMAR
LAUDERDALE           LAWRENCE            LIMESTONE
MARENGO              MARION              MORGAN
PERRY                PICKENS             SHELBY
SUMTER               TUSCALOOSA          WALKER
WINSTON

Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport 16:53 Overcast 81 71 72 SE 10 29.83
Anniston Metro Airport 16:53 Mostly Cloudy 84 71 65 SE 9 G 20 29.88
Atlanta, Hartsfield – Jackson Atlanta International Airport 16:52 Partly Cloudy 82 67 60 SE 5 29.96
Auburn-Opelika Airport 16:56 Mostly Cloudy 82 73 74 S 15 G 21 29.94
Nashville, Nashville International Airport 16:53 Overcast 77 73 88 NE 9 29.87
Alabaster, Shelby County Airport 16:53 Mostly Cloudy 84 72 67 S 17 G 23 29.82
Huntsville, Huntsville International / Jones Field 16:53 Overcast 82 74 77 SE 13 G 24 29.81
Jackson, Jackson International Airport 16:54 Light Rain Fog/Mist 74 72 94 SW 15 G 26 29.75
Memphis International Airport 16:54 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy 69 66 90 NE 28 G 44 29.67
Montgomery, Dannelly Field 16:53 Partly Cloudy 88 72 59 S 10 G 22 29.86
Tuscaloosa Regional Airport 16:53 Fair 83 76 79 S 13 G 24 29.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
317 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...

The post-tropical center of Harvey is now analyzed south of Tunica,
MS. A synoptic scale warm front was located via surface pressure
field analysis from the surface low center east to just south of
Tupelo, MS. Across the state of Mississippi, surface winds generally
shift across this front but as this feature extends into Alabama, it
is primarily defined by a pressure trough with little in the way of
a wind shift or change in the thermodynamic environment.

Sounding data along with upper air guidance suggests drier air aloft
is present in greater magnitude to the east and the north while
profiles are more moist to the south and the west.

Rotating storms remain likely across our south-central, southwest
and western counties with a limited tornado risk. While
conditions had become somewhat calmer in the short- term,
additional development across our south and west counties continue
to be monitored closely. Tornadoes remain possible as we remain
in the synoptically favored right front quadrant of a former
tropical cyclone.

Breaks in cloud cover continue across our eastern, southeast and
south-central counties and solar insolation continues to result in
surface heating that is increasing instability values. Wind shear is
most prominent off the surface at this time, supporting broad storm
rotation. Wind shear values will increase across our western and
northwest counties for the remainder of this afternoon and evening
as the remnants of Harvey move into western Tennessee.

Radar imagery indicates storms that we are closely watching in
Pickens, Perry and Marengo Counties with more activity to the
southwest. Our southwest and west-central counties continue to have
the greatest potential for rotating storms and possible tornadoes.

JH/05

.LONG TERM...

Rain chances will drop significantly for Friday as much drier air
aloft moves into the region around the southern periphery of
Harvey`s remnant low. The weekend looks dry for most if not all
of our forecast area with the arrival of northwesterly flow. The
next chance of rain may not come until Tuesday as southerly flow
develops in advance of an approaching upper-level trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Band one has exited the TAF window to the east and now watching
band 2 begin to work in from the west. Looks to move into TCL at
or just past 18Z and then work into EET and BHM by 20 to 21Z and
then sliding northeastward after that. There should be a line that
moves through MGM and TOI as well, but they may not see the amount
of activity as the northern sites. As the center of the remnants
of Harvey moves northeast, we will see low clouds and showers
overnight at the northern sites along with the main low itself.

Note: Have put in AMD NOT SKED for KASN TAF since winds are
missing from the observation and will be a factor in the forecast
today and tonight.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances are expected through tonight with tropical
moisture in place. A drying trend will follow for Friday and the
weekend. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  80  60  81  60 /  90  50  20  10  10
Anniston    70  82  63  83  62 /  90  40  20  10  10
Birmingham  70  82  64  83  64 /  90  30  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  70  84  66  86  64 /  90  20  10  10   0
Calera      70  82  65  85  65 /  90  20  10  10  10
Auburn      71  84  66  84  65 /  70  30  20  10  10
Montgomery  73  88  67  88  67 /  70  20  10  10  10
Troy        72  87  68  87  66 /  40  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for the following counties:
Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Etowah...Fayette...Jefferson...
Lamar...Marion...St. Clair...Walker...Winston.

&&

mcd1605

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Areas affected…Parts of eastern Mississippi into western Alabama

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 311531Z – 311730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…Some increase in the risk for generally isolated and
relatively short-lived tornadoes may occur through midday and early
afternoon. It is not yet certain that a watch will be needed, but
trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION…East of the remnant circulation center of Harvey,
tropical boundary layer moisture (mid 70s+ F surface dew points)
remains present in a narrow corridor roughly centered near the
Mississippi/Alabama state border area. Breaks in cloud cover across
this region have allowed for some insolation and destabilization, as
a broken band of convection pivots across the region. Coinciding
with a broad belt of 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, which is
contributing to sizable low-level hodographs where near surface flow
remains southeasterly (mainly ahead of the broken band of
convection), at least some risk for brief tornadoes remains evident.
However, the extent of this threat remains unclear, and will
probably hinge on whether rain cooled air now present across much of
central and southern Alabama can modify appreciably. Currently this
seems unlikely, but a couple of corridors of substantive further
boundary layer destabilization seem at least possible. One of these
may extend north and east of Biloxi MS into southwestern Alabama
(near/north of Mobile). The other may develop near Tuscaloosa
northwestward into areas near/east of Tupelo and Columbus MS.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/31/2017

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…BMX…HUN…MOB…MEG…JAN…LIX…

LAT…LON 30618883 31698838 33188861 33878880 34578878 34878820
33188731 32508771 31978792 31188782 30448833 30368885
30618883

================================================================

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

enh_0000

 

ww0476_radar

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and western Alabama
Northeast Mississippi
Southwest Tennessee

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1115 AM until
800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include…
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY…Arcing bands of showers and storms will pose a risk for
brief tornadoes this afternoon into early evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
either side of a line from 60 miles north of Oxford MS to 55 miles
southeast of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 20030.

 

Go Away Now – Harvey

Locatio
7

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

=====================================================================

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

LCH_loop (4)

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

=================================================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

=========================================================================

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken since this afternoon as the center
has moved farther inland over Louisiana. Surface observations
indicate that winds along the northern Gulf coast have decreased,
and the system became a tropical depression in the 0000 UTC
intermediate advisory. Harvey should continue to gradually weaken
as the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected
to dissipate over the Ohio Valley within 72 hours.

Harvey is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The cyclone
should turn northeastward around the northwestern portion of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from the western Atlantic
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern is
forecast to take Harvey across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys during the next couple of days.

It should be noted that despite Harvey’s weakening, heavy rainfall
and flooding are forecast to occur along the path of Harvey during
the next few days, but its faster forward speed should keep
subsequent rainfall amounts well below what occurred along the
northwest Gulf coast.

This is last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in public
advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM
CDT under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Additional information can
also be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service office.

The National Hurricane Center would like to thank all the men and
women that have worked countless hours at local National Weather
Service Forecast offices along the Gulf coast providing life-saving
warnings and information during the past week, on top of preparing
their family and homes for the storm. The center would also like to
acknowledge the dedication of the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft crews that flew numerous missions into Harvey. In
addition, NHC thanks the staff at the Weather Prediction Center,
who led efforts to coordinate forecasts of the historic
flooding event, NWS River Forecast Centers that provided flood
guidance, and the Storm Prediction Center, that coordinated tornado
forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/
Port Arthur, and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals
compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials,
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

3. The Weather Prediction Center will issue public advisories on
Harvey as long as it remains a rainfall threat. These advisories
can continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
and at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 31.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
48H 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
72H 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

=================================== ======================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS…35 MPH…55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

JACKSON MS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 43
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-311215-

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 43
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA  AL092017
1102 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This product covers SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

**FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 30 miles north-northeast of Alexandria LA
    - 31.7N 92.3W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 30 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 10 pm CDT, Tropical Depression Harvey was continuing to track
toward the northeast across Central Louisiana with maximum
sustained winds of 35 mph, and it is forecast to continue with this
motion overnight tonight and into Thursday.

Rainfall continues across interior East Texas into Central Louisiana,
where an additional one half to 1 inch of rainfall is possible the
rest of tonight, with locally higher amounts possible. A flash flood
watch remains in effect for these areas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
East Texas and Extreme Western Louisiana. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having additional devastating to
catastrophic impacts.
These impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
parts of Central Louisiana. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having possible limited impacts.

* WIND:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

* SURGE:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across coastal SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not return to evacuated areas until hazardous winds diminish
and flood waters abate.

RECOVERY PHASE - Do not return to evacuated areas until it is safe.
Listen for the all-clear signal from local authorities.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

As it pertains to this event...this will be the last local statement
issued by the National Weather Service in Lake Charles LA regarding
the effects of tropical cyclone hazards upon the area.

$$

13



Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-311330-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-170831T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1230 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Jefferson, Tyler, Newton, Hardin,
Orange, and Jasper Counties of Southeast Texas...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
  Tyler County in southeastern Texas...
  Newton County in southeastern Texas...
  Hardin County in southeastern Texas...
  Orange County in southeastern Texas...
  Jasper County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 830 AM CDT Thursday

* At 1224 AM CDT, Doppler radar and gauge reports indicated heavy
  rain has fallen across the warned area. 10 to 30 inches of rain
  have fallen with some spots seeing 50 inches. Flash flooding is
  already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Jefferson, Tyler, Newton,
Hardin, Orange, and Jasper Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches,
  Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Jasper, Silsbee, West Orange,
  Woodville, Newton, Kirbyville, Kountze, Sour Lake, Colmesneil, Nome
  and Chester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3101 9466 3106 9456 3118 9354
      3082 9356 3054 9374 3044 9370 3033 9376
      3029 9371 3006 9370 2999 9386 2981 9395
      2969 9384 2967 9406 2956 9435 2989 9436
      2989 9444 3011 9445 3011 9460 3049 9473

$$

Rua



Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Village Creek Near Kountze

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Evadale
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

TXC245-361-311644-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0098.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAT2.3.ER.170827T2236Z.170902T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River Near Beaumont.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.4 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 13.0 feet...River is near flood of record
  which occurred october 1994. Widespread major flooding is
  occurring. Numerous homes in Northeast Beaumont and Rose City are
  flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 11.5 feet...Major flooding is occurring.
  River levels are near those reached during Tropical Storm Allison
  in 1989. Several streets in Northeast Beaumont are flooded and
  impassable and water is in homes near the river. Neighborhoods on
  the north side of Interstate 10 in Rose City are flooded with water
  in approximately 4 homes.
* Impact...At stages near 11.0 feet...Major flooding occurs at
  Colliers Ferry Park and around the Beaumont Country Club.
  Residential roads off of Pine Street are impassable and water up to
  homes. Several streets in Northeast Beaumont also become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 10.0 feet...Major flooding around the
  Beaumont Country Club, Colliers Ferry Park and Pine Street can be
  expected.


$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Village Creek Near Kountze

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Evadale
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

TXC199-241-245-361-311644-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NSBT2.3.ER.170827T1530Z.170902T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* At 9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was estimated to be near 11.7 feet.
* Forecast... continue rising to a stage near 15.1 feet by Saturday morning
  and begin falling by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At stages near 10.0 feet...Major flooding along the river
  including Northwest Orange County From Lake View to the Saltwater
  Barrier with several homes and camps flooded. Flooding is also
  occurring along the river in Beaumont.
* Impact...At stages near 9.5 feet...Major flooding in Lakeview
  Estates.
* Impact...At stages near 8.0 feet...Widespread flooding, especially
  in Northwest Orange County from Lake View downstream to the
  Saltwater Barrier. Several homes and camps are flooded or
  threatend.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9404 3008 9401 3008 9413 3033 9421

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Sabine River Near Bon Wier
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Sabine River Near Orange

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-311619-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.3.ER.170828T1352Z.170902T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.3 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.4 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 29.0 feet...Major flooding occurring
  leaving the town of Deweyville isolated. Numerous homes are
  flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 27.9 feet...This flooding will be similar
  to the flooding expierenced in the flood of March 2001. Homes in
  Deweyville have water in them.
* Impact...At stages near 27.0 feet...Widespread moderate lowland
  flooding will occur. Homes in Deweyville closest to the river are
  flooded. Flooding of homes in the Indian Lakes and River Oaks
  sections will also occur. Low-lying roads and a few homes in
  Southwest Beauregard Parish have some flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 9363 3011 9364 3011 9378 3031 9381
      3062 9378

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Sabine River Near Bon Wier
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Sabine River Near Orange

LAC019-TXC361-311619-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ORNT2.3.ER.170830T0615Z.170903T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Orange.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 6.5 feet by
  Sunday early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 6.0 feet...Major flooding can be expected.
  Numerous roads and homes in Orange are subject to flooding.
  Backwater flooding along Adams Bayou can be expected. Water begins
  to approach the travel lanes on I-10.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Moderate flooding can be
  expected along the river with some roads in Orange likely flooded.
  Back water flooding can also be expected along Adams Bayou in
  Orange.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 9376 3018 9365 3014 9363 2998 9372
      3001 9381

$$




Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
311030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
529 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Tropical Storm Harvey has moved onshore and will continue to move
to the north northeast today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall is
expected to continue across southeast Texas and will further
exacerbate flooding ongoing across the region. As Harvey
progresses northeastward, the flooding threat could shift into
western Louisiana. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the
entire area.

Gusty winds are expected today as Harvey continues to move inland. A
Tropical Storm Warning continues for areas along and south of I-10
today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for areas along and north of
I-10.

There is a Marginal Risk for tornadoes today in the rainbands
rotating around the center of Harvey.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire region on Thursday
with the possibility of additional showers which could lead to
additional flooding.

Chances for rain will decrease on Friday and Saturday as drier
air filters into the area. However, moderate to major flooding is
expected to continue along area rivers.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
weekend and early next week as a week as the next weather system
approaches the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...images (24)

Harvey – Go away now

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

151152WPCQPF_sm (1)
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

=======================================================================

151152

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch is discontinued west of Sabine Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Holly Beach Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sabine Pass Texas to west of Holly Beach Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

151152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.3 West. Harvey is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn
toward the northeast is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey should move through
southwestern and central Louisiana today and tonight, then move
through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern Mississippi Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Harvey moves
farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the south of the center. During the past few hours,
there have been reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in
southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas near Lake Charles,
Cameron, and Sabine Pass.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is
993 mb (29.33 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 10
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward
into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The expected
heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western
Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river, small
stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF
YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please
see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Holly Beach to Morgan City…2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach incl. Galveston Bay…1 to 3 ft
Morgan City to Grand Isle…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through
this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast
Arkansas.

151152_current_wind_sm

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

============================================================================

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS… TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SABINE PASS TEXAS TO WEST OF HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.3W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.3W AT 30/1500Z…INLAND
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 93.5W…INLAND

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 93.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

151152_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

============================================================================

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has changed little in organization since landfall, with
satellite and radar data showing continued convective banding, most
notably in the northwestern quadrant. Winds gusts of 35-45 kt have
been reported over the coastal regions south of the center, and the
central pressure has risen only slightly to 993 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. It should be noted that
a large area of winds just below tropical-storm-force is occurring
over the Gulf of Mexico south of the coasts of south-central and
southeastern Louisiana.

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Harvey
moved northward for a period of several hours near landfall, but now
is resuming a north-northeastward motion of roughly 020/7. The
cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric
high, which should steer it north-northeastward and then
northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
during the next few days until the system dissipates.

Harvey should gradually weaken as it moves farther inland, with the
intensity expected to drop below tropical-storm strength shortly
after the 12 h point. Subsequently, the system should decay to a
remnant low by 72 h and dissipate completely by 96 h. The forecast
weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall
and flooding along Harvey’s path, although the system’s faster
motion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what
occurred over southeastern Texas.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston,
Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by
the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 30.5N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1200Z…DISSIPATED

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS…45 MPH…75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

JACKSON MS 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FORT POLK LA 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)

LAKE CHARLES 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)

CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

JASPER TX 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)

KOUNTZE TX 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

===============================================================

151152_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1059 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

LAZ052>054-073-074-302300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

TXZ215-302300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

LAZ041-042-055-056-059-065>068-TXZ216-302300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…LCH…LIX…

=========================================================================

http://www.weather.gov/lix/satellite

activity_loop (6)

mcd1600

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Areas affected…Parts of east central and southeast Louisiana
through southern Mississippi

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 301451Z – 301645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…At least some risk for mainly isolated, relatively
short-lived tornadoes is already evident. The extent of this threat
remains a bit unclear, but it seems likely to increase into and
through early afternoon, particularly within a corridor across east
central and southeast Louisiana through much of southern
Mississippi, perhaps as far north as the I-20 corridor.

DISCUSSION…Beneath the lower/mid tropospheric dry slot to the east
of the remnant circulation center of Harvey, breaks in low-level
cloud cover are likely already allowing for an increase in boundary
layer instability in response to insolation. This should continue
into and through the midday hours, particularly within a narrow
plume of tropical boundary layer moisture (with surface dew points
of 75F+) wrapping across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal
areas, into the vicinity of the surface cyclone center which
continues to slowly track north northeast of Lake Charles.

Within/across this corridor of richer boundary layer moisture
content, a southeasterly component to the near surface flow beneath
southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 40 kt is already contributing
to favorable hodographs for the development of substantive low-level
mesocyclones. As cells embedded within ongoing and developing bands
of convection pivoting around Harvey occasionally strengthen, the
risk for mainly isolated, brief tornadoes will probably increase as
the boundary layer undergoes further destabilization into and
through early afternoon.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/30/2017

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…MOB…JAN…LIX…LCH…SHV…

LAT…LON 32139187 32329116 32128998 31468851 30308856 29918954
30649045 30989167 31589237 32139187

mcd1600

   Mesoscale Discussion 1600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of east central and southeast Louisiana
   through southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 301451Z - 301645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...At least some risk for mainly isolated, relatively
   short-lived tornadoes is already evident.  The extent of this threat
   remains a bit unclear, but it seems likely to increase into and
   through early afternoon, particularly within a corridor across east
   central and southeast Louisiana through much of southern
   Mississippi, perhaps as far north as the I-20 corridor.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath the lower/mid tropospheric dry slot to the east
   of the remnant circulation center of Harvey, breaks in low-level
   cloud cover are likely already allowing for an increase in boundary
   layer instability in response to insolation.  This should continue
   into and through the midday hours, particularly within a narrow
   plume of tropical boundary layer moisture (with surface dew points
   of 75F+) wrapping across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal
   areas, into the vicinity of the surface cyclone center which
   continues to slowly track north northeast of Lake Charles.

   Within/across this corridor of richer boundary layer moisture
   content, a southeasterly component to the near surface flow beneath
   southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 40 kt is already contributing
   to favorable hodographs for the development of substantive low-level
   mesocyclones.  As cells embedded within ongoing and developing bands
   of convection pivoting around Harvey occasionally strengthen, the
   risk for mainly isolated, brief tornadoes will probably increase as
   the boundary layer undergoes further destabilization into and
   through early afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/30/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32139187 32329116 32128998 31468851 30308856 29918954
               30649045 30989167 31589237 32139187 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
WatchesMesoscale DiscussionsOutlooksFire WeatherAll ProductsContact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 30, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities