Yet again, with Harvey

two_atl_5d0 (13)

This is actually fun.  We see Oceanic  and Gulf of Mexico issues.  We have systems engourging each other.  It seems just as one system gains some validity, it falls apart.

The system has some obvious and important problems.   In 2-5 days an increase (80%) of potentiality is based upon assumption.  Assuming the path is going one place or another really matters.  Interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and how much of that crossing hits the Yucatan.   Earlier we have projections being a bit more westward,  thus the WSW component is really a best guess.   The Geometry really is hard to pin down.  Like with many projections you can go from 80%-20% and then disappearing altogether.

Looking again at this remnant of Harvey,   we see another interaction with the Yucatan.  We have a presumption of movement and if this system moves as they forecast this  movement could be problematic.  If it goes more westerly then it would basically scratch Belize as it departs the Yucatan.

If it swings more NW and WNW then where would it go? A more southerly turn would make this storm go to Depression heaven.   If this storm faces enough land mass, then the land will make a weak storm weaker.   If it goes between the Yucatan and Mexico then we have to re-work estimates as it crosses un-impeded in the Gulf of Mexico.

Is the environment more favorable in the Gulf?  And where does it end up?  A strong forward track inhibits a turn.  That is good (for us).  This is indeed the trickier proposition.   You see, Emergency Management has a hat in this rodeo and so does Home Depot and Lowes.  We would see a run on Home Depot and Lowes.

Against most important  is life and limb.  EM has a very tight juxtoposition here.  To man shelters and provide as much leeway as they can.  Hurricane or Tropical Force parties are ignorant. You could get holed up in Hotels without electricity.  After the Beer runs out, then the party just begins.   Don’t do that!   Now this is contingent upon path and strength and so it is vitally important that people listen to local TV and Emergency Management.

These are some of the EM difficulties and their’s is a difficult matter.  Only weather men or gals do this (for the most part) but I suggest that you don’t do that.  Even a stronger Tropical Storm can make a   big difference.  The center is really not the issue as much as the Storm’s periphery.

GULFIR172322215

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL ADVISORIES!  Do drive through flooding and avoid the chance of other kinds of problems.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

EM is doing you a favor.  Be mindful of that fact.


 

800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.


Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)atl_00_sfc_analysis

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php

Follow that link to get Marine products.

 

Harvey ?

Harvey has been a tough nut to crack.  First:  Storm Center has been inconsistent and thunderstorm patterns erratic.   So right now the center is anyone’s guess.   These sudden flare-ups of Thunderstorm activity are partly due to convection over-land and sea-breezes.

If anything, circulation is closer to Florida,  with an elongated center.   The system  looks to be just off of  Florida.  The million dollar question is the actual center,  sustained winds and pressure.  There is a bit of Thunderstorm activity  in a cyclonic pattern off the coast of Florida.  Some of that is attributed to Thunderstorm Tops.   But this picture is NOT set at this time.

So for now, the next pressure recording and sustained winds are very importsnt. Florida two clusters of thunderstorms.  Wait, three, my bad.  One is superimposed on another.

GULFWV172321615

GULFVS172321945

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210000-
/O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro,
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof,
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola,
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point,
Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko,
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage,
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson,
Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur,
Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst,
Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude,
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss,
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia,
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak
  afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those
  outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$



 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

LAZ015-023>026-MSZ026>033-035>039-042>046-048>052-054>066-072>074-
212000-
Richland-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-
Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
258 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees will remain
possible through early this evening  Exposure to these conditions
will raise the likelihood of heat related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

$$

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.

download (8)

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR EAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410
AND 425...

IDZ410-425-210300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170821T0300Z/
Upper Snake River Valley/Idaho Falls BLM-
Middle Snake River Valley/Twin Falls BLM north of the Snake River-
203 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR EAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 410 AND 425...

* AFFECTED AREA... Arco Desert Region of fire weather zone 410.
  Fire weather zone 425.

* WIND...Southwest to West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
  mph.

* HUMIDITY...Minimum 9 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Do not use fireworks.
  Engine heat from vehicles can spark wildfires, especially in
  grasses. Do not park on or drive over grassy areas or throw
  cigarettes out of cars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Fires may experience
rapid rates of growth. Please advise the appropriate officials or
fire crews in the field of the red flag warning for portions of
Southeast Idaho.

images (23)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
356 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
356 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
mainly for areas north of Interstate 70, where strong gusty winds
and hail to the size of quarter dollars will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night for areas north of Interstate 70, and again on Tuesday for
areas south and east of Saint Louis.

 

Where is Harvey?

two_atl_5d0 (12)

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

...UPDATED TO PLACE TROPICAL WAVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends across the central Caribbean with axis 
extending from 19N72W to a 1008 mb surface low near 14N72W to 
11N73W. This system was previously T.S Harvey. Scattered moderate
convection has developed during the past few hours near the low 
center mainly from 12N-17N between 73W-77W. A fast westward 
motion is expected to continue with this system for the next 
couple of days as the wave moves along the southern periphery of 
the subtropical ridge.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N45W to 10N46W, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a large area of 
cloudiness but convection is limited in association with this 
wave due to Saharan dust intrusion. This system coincides with a 
well defined 700 mb trough, and a high amplitude northward bulge 
of moisture is noted on the TPW product.

A tropical wave was introduced to this map over the eastern 
Caribbean, after analyzing upper-air soundings across the islands
and model guidance. The wave's axis extends from 19N65W to 10N64W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the
northern portion of the wave mainly north of 16N between 62W-66W
affecting the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. 

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending 
from western Cuba along 84W to near 10N84W, moving west at 10-15 
kt. The wave shows up very well on the TPW animation and 700 mb 
streamline analysis. Energy from the wave has fractured to the 
northeast and is analyzed as a surface trough currently located
over the Florida Peninsula. The wave is enhancing showers near
Honduras, Belize and adjacent waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to a
1008 mb low near 13N20W to 11N41W. The Intertropical Convergence 
Zone extends from 11N51W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large and well defined upper-level low centered over the
southeast Gulf near 25N85W continues to generate scattered 
showers over the Florida Straits. The western half of the Gulf is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1016 mb 
high pressure centered near 29N90W. Isolated showers and light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of 90W. The upper-low will
drift westward reaching the central Gulf by Monday. This system 
will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf
waters today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. Moisture associated with these tropical
waves will continue to affect the area increasing the likelihood 
of showers and thunderstorms today. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades across the basin, with the strongest winds
remaining east of 70W. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes, and mountain upslope lifting 
will combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the island mainly during the afternoon 
and evening hours through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As previously mentioned, the northern part of the tropical wave 
currently moving across the western Caribbean is analyzed as a 
trough currently extending across southeast Florida. This trough 
is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 76W, and
will continue to move westward through the day. Another surface 
trough is analyzed northeast of the Leeward Islands extending from
25N65W to 20N65W. This trough continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms from 19N-25N between 61W-66W. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of 
this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of fresh to strong winds is
noted per scatterometer data on the northern side of this trough.
The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 32N39W. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds are also noted between the coast of Africa 
and the Madeira/Canary Islands. These winds are the result of the 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures 
over west Africa.


GULFIR172320915
The Central Pressure USA_06Z
Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected to combine with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. This will result in
heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees from 11AM til 7PM.
Exposure to these conditions will raise the likelihood of heat
related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Maximum heat index values near 105 degrees are possible in the
Delta region on Monday. Prolonged exposure to these temperatures
or strenuous outdoor activities could be dangerous.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

$$

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.


...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss




Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
202215-
/O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro,
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof,
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola,
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point,
Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko,
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage,
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson,
Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur,
Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst,
Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude,
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss,
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia,
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak
  afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those
  outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

images (25)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-211100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Daytime temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees will
combine with high humidity values today to produce heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in
effect until early this evening. In addition, a couple of isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially south of Interstate 20. No
severe weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Thunderstorms will remain possible each day through much of the
next week. Thunderstorms are expected areawide on Wednesday.

Heat index values will continue to range between 105 and 109
degrees across portions of the area through Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures and lower heat index values are expected after a cold
front moves across the area on Wednesday. Precautions should be
taken to prevent heat related injuries.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, skywarn networks, and amateur
radio operators is not anticipated through tonight.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Today for Southeast Oklahoma,
Northwest and North Central Louisiana, Southwest and South Central
Arkansas, and parts of East and Northeast Texas...

.The combination of high temperatures in the middle and upper
nineties along with high humidity will result in heat indices of
105 to 109 degrees from this afternoon through early this
evening.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-210000-
/O.CON.KSHV.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs,
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville,
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden,
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice,
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia,
Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, Zwolle,
Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, Montgomery,
Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, Olla, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Atlanta, Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City,
Jefferson, Longview, Marshall, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches,
Center, Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...High pressure aloft across the area will allow for
  temperatures to climb into the middle to upper nineties. These
  temperatures along with low level moisture will produce heat
  indices of 105 to 109 degrees.

* TIMING...Heat indices will be near 105 to 109 in the afternoon
  and early evening before lowering.

* IMPACT...Precautions should be taken to prevent heat related
  illnesses, including limiting outdoor work activities to the
  morning before temperatures rise and early evening after the
  readings lower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Take frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned
environments. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

A Tale of Depression

Again this situation was simple last night.  The center is hard to find, even now.  Satellite Imagery shows a lot of rain on one side or the other.    So a wave makes sense , and with the storm now having sustained winds at 35mph.   Plenty of shear and central pressure has risen to 1007mb.   They are trying to make an omelet without the egg.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)

activity_loop (4)

 

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.

The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.

The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH


 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN
NICARAGUA…NORTHERN HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z


GULFIR172311745

203938_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Things to ponder – Harvey!

Last check Harvey has some issues. 1)  Max Sustained Winds  (40mph),  2) Minimum Central Pressure 1005mb (High),   Forward Speed 18mph (a tad fast).  Poorly developed and being twisted and churned on either side.   The 500mb is in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  The HIGH is weak at all levels.  NHC is not even certain about the strength, but tend to think.  NO.  Met. Larry Olson (Mike Scott….)

GULFIR172310115

 

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Microwave and conventional geostationary satellite images indicate
that Harvey’s center is still displaced to the east of a persistent
cluster of deep convection due to about 15 kt of northeasterly
shear. With no notable changes in the cyclone’s structure since
the last advisory, the maximum wind estimate remains 35 kt, which
is in line with the latest Dvorak CI numbers.

Recent microwave fixes suggest that Harvey’s center may have slowed
down or wobbled northward temporarily, and the 12-hour motion
estimate is a slightly slower 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a swift
westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours.
Once Harvey moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 72 hours,
it will reach the western edge of the ridge, and it will likely
slow down and gain some latitude due to a cut-off low over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although the track guidance envelope
has shifted slightly northward on this cycle, especially around the
72-hour period, there are no significant changes from six hours ago.

Northeasterly or northerly shear is forecast to continue for the
next 36 hours or so, which should prevent significant strengthening
while Harvey moves westward across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. By 48 hours, the vertical shear over the cyclone
drops drastically, but the system’s fast motion could still
limit the amount of intensification that will occur. The best
opportunity for strengthening would likely be around day 3 when
Harvey begins to slow down as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one during the first 48 hours, and it was nudged a little
lower at 72 hours to fall closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
(HCCA) model and the ICON intensity consensus. A lot of
uncertainty remains, however, since models like SHIPS and HWRF
bring Harvey near or to hurricane intensity before it reaches land
while the GFS and ECMWF continue to weaken the circulation while it
moves across the Caribbean Sea.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 13.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
120H 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT… 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 64.

 

Trouble in the Tropics?

The Yucatan Peninsula is where Tropical Storm Harvey  will first encounter land.   And  as it does it will weaken.  It is only a bland tropical system as is.  Any interaction with land will weaken it, but trajectory is a huge issue.  Crossing the Peninsula diagonally is best for everyone but those who see significant swells, a few winds and perhap torrential rains.  I am not saying that it is good news for Southern Texas to Lake Carles, LA.

204351_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

As the 5PM REPORT Came out,  the diagonal path seems to write a different story from above.  There are two considerations.  The strength and its path.   I think perhaps the question is that the system is still only a rather weak TS and any encounter with land may cause it to weaken even further

Strongly feel that this storm may be downgraded and stay a Tropical Depression.  If it does reach TS again,  then something atypical would happening.  Apart from that, little change is expected, as per me.

 

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey,
with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but
poorly organized, convective area. Earlier reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting
an increased intensity. However, due to uncertainties in how
representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in
the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 275/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge
north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion
for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern
to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. After 72 h, a
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new
forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but
there were only minor changes in the direction. It should be noted
that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey
might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale
models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest
runs.

The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and
thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow
strengthening during this time. However, the GFS and ECMWF again
forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and
the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker
cyclone. This lowers the confidence in intensification. After
48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the
main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The
intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in
72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
120H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

…HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI…650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

GULFIR172302115       This satellite picture depicts an irregular storm center on the IR Loop.  It could better organize and center seems kind of oblique looking.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

GULFWV172301915

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

southeast

activity_loop (3)

This chart shows a lot of instability and a few showers and thunderstorms.   Pretty good indicator of enhanced convective activity.  I am not so certain of the forecast path and even a strong circulation.    Right now it is diffuse.  The next few hours may give a few answers.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) – DWWX–

The rush to Political Correct…

Yeah it is offensive.  But it is there right to be ignorant.   Yeah I get it.  But rather find obtuse angles at attacking President Trump,  do something but whine.  Whining doesn’t feed children.   Whining doesn’t win anything.

On CNN, Don Lemon was chatting with Morgan Freeman.  Don asked Freeman about racism and Morgan said, “stop talking about it”.  When we impower any kind of bigotry, the bigot wins.   I remmber on Mayor in D.C.

The racism we ignore

“Marion Barry’s mouth set him up. The disgraced former mayor of Washington, DC, who was caught on tape in a 1987 crack cocaine sting, made an even bigger disgrace of himself and his city on Tuesday. Celebrating a Democratic primary victory, the city councilman attacked small businesses owned by “Asians” in his district. Then the race-baiting clown doubled down”.

Barry told supporters in DC’s Ward 8: “We got to do something about these Asians coming in and opening up businesses and dirty shops. They ought to go.” Once pushed out, Barry promised, he would replace the foreign invaders with “African-American business people.”

He then took to Twitter to expound on the perils of “dirty” Asian shops in his neighborhood. Barry posted photos of supposedly hazardous stores — including Chinese restaurants surrounded not by trash or toxic waste, but by Plexiglas barriers and reinforced doors.

He explained that Asian-owned businesses that had the audacity to protect themselves from crime were “lowering standards” in his constituents’ communities.

Crazy Barry doesn’t just need another round of rehab. He needs a reality check.

As a commenter on DCist.com noted, 2010 Census data showed that “Asians made up 0.4 percent of the Ward 8 population. . . If anything, Asians are moving out, not in — the Asian population decreased 13.6 percent . . . between 2000 and 2010.”

Most of us remember Martin Luther King and that tragic day.  MLK day is great, but we only pay lip service to that day.  In many cities statues and MLK Blvd are situated in blighted neighbor hoods.  PC people get real.  Former-President Obama payed lip service to helping people feel better.    Rather than focus on idiots, we prefer to sticks and Stones.

In Burkburnette Texas, I often played with blacks (Across the steet from blacks).  We played and got dirty ane one day this black kid call me a #Peckerwood.   A kid who was playing with us in an ash pile told that kid to leave me alone.   Kids I think get it. My own mom lived in a vacuum,  but that was rectified.   I have a  two black nephews.

One day my own mother seen that ‘those people” are us. She got presents for the one nephew and she had to be fair to him.   He loves my  mother and always wants to stay overnight with her.   My niece married a black guy.   That is their baby.  We live to learn.  So what’s up with people? Right.

My Aunt and Uncle adopted a kid (who was black).   Joel Stephens was an 5-star recuit at Syracuse.   A reporter asked about  his “black brother”.  Joel said,  “he is not my  black brother, he is my brother”.    Unity matters.  Faith Matters.  Cancer sucks.

 

Joel Stephens.

41kyXBoyRlL

 

One night our dad was dropping the F-word at supper and all five of us went off on him. We lived in upstate NY.  A side note, Joel died at 22 with a rare form of Cancer.  Joel was a Christian.  He thanked God for his cancer! Huh? Great faith there. The owner of the Baltimore Orioles told the the Stephens family medical bills.  He even has a Joel Stephens Day.  But back to the event with our dad.  No one instilled us with bigotry.   We respected our friends and we did appreciate that bigots are going to do what they do.  My preference is to avoid such stupidity. And like Morgan Freeman said to stop talking about it.  Lemon was shocked.

We do NOT empower bigots. We politely consider the source.  Fighting over this,  just sustains the offending party, but ignoring them enough, they just go away.  That is not the take-away point. We need to respect each other.  See each other as friends, not hyphenating names but realizing the great potential of all of us.   Character Matters.