Henry Already!!! Say it’s not so!

mcd1593

 Mesoscale Discussion 1593
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

   Areas affected...Coastal LA and southeast TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 474...

   Valid 282058Z - 282230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 474 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to remain isolated, but a
   brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Substantial rain and storms have produced outflow and
   reinforced the front across much of the area with surface winds
   mainly out of the northeast. East to southeasterly winds do exist
   south of the main boundary, which currently exists near the coast.

   A line of storms extends from southwestern LA southward, with some
   cellular structures within. As these cells continue to train
   northward, they will encounter the surface front and may acquire
   rotation briefly with effective SRH on the order of 200 M2/s2.

   Farther west, storms over southeast TX are moving cyclonically
   northwestward around TC Harvey. Some of these cells may also contain
   a threat briefly as they cross the aforementioned boundary.

   ..Jewell.. 08/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30449196 30389328 30339409 30159448 29889466 29629447
               29589415 29699344 29569283 29419194 29339164 29509123
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0474.html
validww

US (3)


Click on the links above for information on the various watches and warnings.  It looks as if Harvey could have yet another life.

two_atl_0d0 (1).png

GULFIR172402015

weather.gov     images (24)National Weather ServiceWatches, Warnings & AdvisoriesGo to the NOAA HomepageNWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by “City, St” or zip code 

 
8 products issued by NWS for: Orange County Airport TX


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
635 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
291200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
635 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Heavy rainfall from slowly moving Tropical Storm Harvey along the
Texas coast will produce several rounds of training showers and
thunderstorms across Southeast Texas, Central and Southern
Louisiana. A flash flood watch for the entire area continues.

The prolonged east to southeast winds will lead to minor coastal
flooding across Southeast Texas and Southwestern Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Continued heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Harvey will continue
through Thursday. The chances of precipitation will slowly diminish
Friday into the Labor Day weekend and the entire system moves
further inland and weakens.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be required.

$$


Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
416 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

TXC199-241-245-361-282245-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-170828T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson TX-Hardin TX-Orange TX-Jasper TX-
416 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Jefferson and Hardin
Counties...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
JEFFERSON...HARDIN...ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that heavy rain was once again falling over the area that has.
received a tremndous amount of rainfall the past few days. Flash
flooding is currently ogoing with evacuations ongoing along Taylors,
Hillebrandt, and Pine Island Bayous.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Jefferson and Hardin Counties.
This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Lumberton,
Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Evadale,
Central Gardens, Thicket, Saratoga, Hamshire, Wildwood, Mauriceville
and Buna.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches with locally
higher amounts are possible in the warned area for the remainder of
the afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3049 9454 3053 9454 3052 9393
      3024 9390 3024 9384 3001 9376 2999 9386
      2993 9386 2984 9395 2979 9395 2968 9385
      2967 9405 2956 9435 2989 9436 2989 9444
      3011 9445 3011 9460

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
402 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...HEAVY RAINS FROM HARVEY POISED TO BRING MORE FLOODING...

.Showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer bands of
Tropical Storm Harvey will continue to develop and move ashore
across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana through much of
the coming week. Excessive rainfall amounts are likely through
Thursday, and with soil already saturated from recent rains,
flash flooding is likely.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
290500-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-170901T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle,
Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport,
Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta,
Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou,
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lake Charles, Sulphur,
Hathaway, Jennings, Topsy, Roanoke, Welsh, Lake Arthur, Crowley,
Rayne, Branch, Church Point, Richard, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge,
Cade, St. Martinville, Abbeville, Intracoastal City, Meaux,
Forked Island, Kaplan, New Iberia, Morgan City, Burns Point,
Centerville, Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista,
Stephensville, Hackberry, Johnson Bayou, Grand Lake, Klondike,
Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, Rutherford Beach, Town Bluff,
Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Lumberton,
Silsbee, Beaumont, Sabine Pass, Sea Rim State Park, Orange,
Vidor, Bridge City, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville,
Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville,
Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna,
Evadale, and Deweyville
402 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Louisiana and southeast Texas, including the
  following areas, in Louisiana, Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles,
  Beauregard, Calcasieu, East Cameron, Evangeline, Iberia,
  Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Lower St. Martin, Rapides, St.
  Landry, St. Mary, Upper St. Martin, Vermilion, Vernon, and
  West Cameron. In southeast Texas, Hardin, Jefferson, Northern
  Jasper, Northern Newton, Orange, Southern Jasper, Southern
  Newton, and Tyler.

* Through Thursday evening

* Areal rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches are expected across
  Southeast Texas, Southwest Louisiana and portions of South-
  Central Louisiana, with 5 to 10 inches expected across Central
  Louisiana. Intense rainfall rates may overwhelm local drainage
  capacity.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

25



Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
331 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Louisiana...

  Bayou Vermilion Near Carencro

...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Minor Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...Texas...
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...Texas...
  Vermilion River At Lafayette, Surrey Street Gage
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont

291031-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NSBT2.3.ER.170827T1530Z.170902T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
331 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...Forecast flooding increased from Major to Record severity...
The Flood Warning continues for
 the Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:15 PM Monday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.2 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 10.0 feet...Major flooding along the river
  including Northwest Orange County From Lake View to the Saltwater
  Barrier with several homes and camps flooded. Flooding is also
  occurring along the river in Beaumont.
* Impact...At stages near 9.5 feet...Major flooding in Lakeview
  Estates.
* Impact...At stages near 8.0 feet...Widespread flooding, especially
  in Northwest Orange County from Lake View downstream to the
  Saltwater Barrier. Several homes and camps are flooded or
  threatened.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9404 3008 9401 3008 9413 3033 9421

$$

TXC245-361-291030-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0098.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAT2.3.ER.170827T2236Z.170902T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
331 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...Forecast flooding increased from Major to Record severity...
The Flood Warning continues for
 the Neches River Near Beaumont.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by
  Saturday morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At stages near 13.0 feet...River is near flood of record
  which occurred October 1994. Widespread major flooding is
  occurring. Numerous homes in Northeast Beaumont and Rose City are
  flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 11.0 feet...Major flooding occurs at
  Colliers Ferry Park and around the Beaumont Country Club.
  Residential roads off of Pine Street are impassable and water up to
  homes. Several streets in Northeast Beaumont also become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 7.5 feet...Moderate flooding is occurring.
  River levels are near those reached during Tropical Storm Allison
  in June 2001. Flooding of Colliers Ferry Park and secondary roads
  near the river can be expected.



&&

LAT...LON 3019 9417 3023 9411 3004 9378 2992 9387 2998 9406

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
226 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Louisiana...Texas...

  Calcasieu River Near Oakdale
  Calcasieu River Near Oberlin
  Sabine River Near Orange

...Observed Flooding Changed from Moderate to Minor Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Moderate to Major Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...
  Mermentau River Near Mermentau

...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Nonflood Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...
  Bayou Des Cannes NEAR Eunice
  Bundick Creek At Bundick Lake
  Whisky Chitto Creek Near Mittie
  Calcasieu River Near Kinder
  Bayou Nezpique Near Basile

LAC019-TXC361-290925-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FL.W.0116.170830T1000Z-170903T0200Z/
/ORNT2.1.ER.170830T1000Z.170830T1200Z.170902T0200Z.NO/
226 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Sabine River Near Orange.
* from late Tuesday night to Saturday evening...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  1:46 PM Monday the stage was 3.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Wednesday morning and continue
  to rise to near 4.1 feet by early Friday morning. the river will
  fall below flood stage by Friday before midnight.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Moderate flooding can be
  expected along the river with some roads in Orange likely flooded.
  Back water flooding can also be expected along Adams Bayou in
  Orange.
* Impact...At stages near 4.0 feet...Flooding of mainly secondary
  roads near the river can be expected. Steward Road may become
  impassable near the weigh station in Louisiana. The Louisiana weigh
  station is flooded. Water surrounds the Louisiana and Texas welcome
  centers.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 9376 3018 9365 3014 9363 2998 9372
      3001 9381

$$




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
LAC011-019-023-053-TXC351-361-282345-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FF.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170828T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1232 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northern Cameron Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
  Jefferson Davis Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
  Southwestern Beauregard Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
  Calcasieu Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
  Southwestern Newton County in southeastern Texas...
  Eastern Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 645 PM CDT Monday

* At 1228 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  scattered heavy rain showers continue falling across the warned
  area. Flash flooding is already occurring per stream gauges
  located across the area with rapid rises noted on some gauges with
  several secondary roads becoming flooded. Rainfall since this
  morning has been between two and four inches with an additional
  two to four inches expected across the area this afternoon.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Lake Charles, Sulphur, Orange, Jennings, Westlake, West Orange,
  Welsh, Vinton, Iowa, Lake Arthur, Elton, Fenton, Grand Lake,
  Deweyville, Hayes, Moss Bluff, De Quincy, Lacassine National
  Wildlife Refuge, Lake Charles Regional Airport and Starks.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
Residents living along streams and creeks or poor drainage
areas should take immediate precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 2993 9324 2997 9327 3002 9327 3005 9329
      3005 9333 2993 9334 2993 9376 3040 9389
      3052 9389 3050 9313 3042 9313 3044 9278
      3049 9277 3049 9263 3008 9263 3004 9272
      3004 9263 2993 9263

$$



Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

TORNADO WATCH 474 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC245-361-290500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0474.170828T1715Z-170829T0500Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON            ORANGE
$$



Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Bayou Des Cannes NEAR Eunice
  Whisky Chitto Creek Near Mittie
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier
  Bayou Nezpique Near Basile
  Mermentau River Near Mermentau
  Vermilion River At Lafayette, Surrey Street Gage
  Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine
  Sabine River Near Bon Wier
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Evadale
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Village Creek Near Kountze
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake
  Bundick Creek At Bundick Lake
  Calcasieu River Near Glenmora
  Calcasieu River Near Kinder
  West Fork Of The Calcasieu River At Sam Houston Jones State Park

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-290551-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.2.ER.170828T1352Z.170901T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 AM Monday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 27.2 feet by
  Thursday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 27.0 feet...Widespread moderate lowland
  flooding will occur. Homes in Deweyville closest to the river are
  flooded. Flooding of homes in the Indian Lakes and River Oaks
  sections will also occur. Low-lying roads and a few homes in
  Southwest Beauregard Parish have some flooding.
* Impact...At stages near 26.8 feet...Deweyville schools may be
  closed due to school bus routes being flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 26.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding will
  occur. The lowest homes between Deweyville and the river begin to
  flood, especially in the Indian Lakes and River Oaks sections.
  Low-lying roads and a few homes in Southwestern Beauregard Parish
  have some flooding.
* Impact...At stages near 25.0 feet...Lowest roads beside the river
  flood around Deweyville and subject to being closed. In addition,
  low-lying roads in Southwest Beauregard Parish are flooded
  including Robert Clark Road. Flooding occurs on the south side of
  Niblett Bluff Park with access roads to camp houses cut off around
  the park. Access roads to the river in Northeastern Orange County
  become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 24.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding will
  occur.
* Impact...At stages near 23.0 feet...The river is at bankfull
Advertisements

A little bit or a lot — Harvey.

hhh

wv-animated (4)

two_atl_5d0 (15)

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Harvey, located inland over eastern Texas.

1. An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central
Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of
Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has
the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression
early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida
on Sunday. The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern
coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to
cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas through early next week. Heavy rain is also
expected to continue over portions of southern and central Florida
during the next day or two. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office for more information on
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next
week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

=================================================================

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BARELY MOVING…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.1N 97.6W
ABOUT 45 MI…70 KM WNW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 97.6
West. Harvey has been nearly stationary and little motion is
anticipated during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the
next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40
inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches
farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the
Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of
this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————- 7pm

==================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 75NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 97.6W

============================================================================

 

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.
Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since
there are no surface observations near the center, this is the
intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is
anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the
SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey’s
circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could
weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.

 

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey’s winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

============================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS…65 MPH…100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

JASPER TX 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14)

HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16)

AUSTIN TX 34 11 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 3(22) 3(25) 1(26)
AUSTIN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 18 13(31) 2(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11)

MATAGORDA TX 34 12 4(16) 4(20) 4(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 8 10(18) 10(28) 4(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15)

MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

HARLINGEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

=====================================================

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ235>238-245>247-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ234-270200-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-233-270200-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220-221-223-225>227-231-232-241>244-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

US (2)

http://www.weather.gov/

LCH_loop (2)

images (24)

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AROUND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST OVER
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING A PROLONGED ELEVATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...WITH TIDE LEVELS EXPECTED TO RUN 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL PROJECTED LEVELS.

LAZ052>054-073-074-TXZ215-271500-
/O.CON.KLCH.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170827T1500Z/
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

* TIMING...FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF SOME ROADWAYS NEAR SABINE PASS, HOLLY
  BEACH, HACKBERRY, CAMERON, GRAND CHENIER, DELCAMBRE, AND
  CYPERMORT POINT CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

25



 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
330 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HEAVY RAINS FROM HARVEY POISED TO BRING POSSIBLE FLOODING...

.Showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer bands of
Hurricane Harvey will continue to develop and move ashore across
Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana into early next week.
Excessive rainfall amounts are likely through Wednesday...and
with soil already saturated from recent rains, flash flooding is
likely. Additional rains associated with the storm are likely to
continue past mid-week.

TXZ201-215-216-261-262-271000-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-170831T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Silsbee, Beaumont,
Sabine Pass, Sea Rim State Park, Orange, Vidor, Bridge City,
Gist, Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville
330 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas,
  Hardin, Jefferson, Orange, Southern Jasper, and Southern
  Newton.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Areal rainfall amounts of 10 to 14 inches are expected in the
  watch area through Tuesday, with locally higher amounts
  possible. Intense rainfall rates may overwhelm local drainage
  capacity.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

25



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

TXC199-241-245-351-361-262245-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170826T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson TX-Newton TX-Hardin TX-Orange TX-Jasper TX-
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...HARDIN...ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES...

At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that heavy rain was falling over the area. Various amounts of rain
have fallen so far with two to six inches having already occurred
across Orange, Jasper and Hardin counties with one to three inches
of rain have fallen in Jefferson County. Flash flooding has already
been reported in Orange and Jasper Counties. The heaviest rains are
just now beginning to move into Jefferson County.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches,
Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, West Orange, Kountze, Sour
Lake, Nome, Evadale, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Hamshire, Wildwood
and Mauriceville.

Additional rainfall amounts of two to five inches are possible
through 6 PM with locally higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 9454 3052 9374 3034 9376 3002 9375
      2998 9383 2999 9386 2997 9384 2986 9393
      2984 9392 2984 9395 2981 9393 2981 9395
      2968 9385 2967 9406 2956 9436 2989 9436
      2989 9443 3011 9445 3011 9448 3049 9456

$$



 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

TORNADO WATCH 468 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-291-321-339-351-
361-473-477-481-270700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0468.170826T1745Z-170827T0700Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN               BRAZORIA            CHAMBERS
COLORADO             FORT BEND           GALVESTON
GRIMES               HARDIN              HARRIS
JASPER               JEFFERSON           LIBERTY
MATAGORDA            MONTGOMERY          NEWTON
ORANGE               WALLER              WASHINGTON
WHARTON
$$



 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

TXC199-245-270601-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0099.170828T0539Z-000000T0000Z/
/SOLT2.1.ER.170828T0539Z.170830T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake.
* from late Sunday night until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  9:45 AM Saturday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by early Monday morning and
  continue to rise to near 28.6 feet by early Wednesday morning.
  This forecast is based upon 72 hours of expected precipitation.
  Further rises based upon continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 29.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding will
  occur. Water covers roads in Bevil Oaks.
* Impact...At stages near 25.0 feet...Water inundates roads in
  lowland areas near the river. Low spots on Old Sour Lake Road are
  under water.
* Impact...At stages near 22.0 feet...River is at bankfull stage.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 9445 3024 9423 3021 9407 3013 9406 3004 9445

$$




 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

TXC245-361-270601-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0098.170829T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAT2.1.ER.170829T1800Z.170831T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River Near Beaumont.
* from Tuesday afternoon until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Saturday the stage was 2.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Tuesday early afternoon and
  continue to rise to near 5.1 feet by Thursday morning. This forecast
  is based upon 72 hours of expected  precipitation. Further rises
  based upon continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 4.0 feet...Minor flooding of Beaumont
  Country Club and Colliers Ferry Park can be expected. Also flooding
  in Northwest Orange County south of River Oaks to Bunns Bluff can
  be expected. Water may go over Four Oaks Ranch Road in Northwest
  Orange County.

&&

LAT...LON 3019 9417 3023 9411 3004 9378 2992 9387 2998 9406

$$


 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
271030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Harvey made landfall last night and has moved inland very slowly.
The majority of the rainbands continue across the central Texas
coast with this region this morning getting brushed but the outer
bands. A Tornado Watch continues for Jefferson... Hardin... and
Orange counties in southeast Texas. Rains will continue through
the day and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Harvey is expected to bring bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the region through the weekend and into next
week. Rainfall will be heavy at times and flooding of some
locations is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 

Harvey for 200!

Harvey may have reached it’s minimum central pressure at 974mb.  Winds

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

…HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE TEXAS
COAST…
…LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.2N 94.6W
ABOUT 250 MI…400 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI…400 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 94.6 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday
night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or
just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. While Harvey has changed little in strength over
the past several hours, strengthening is expected to resume later
tonight, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday and Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday. These conditions are likely to persist into Saturday in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisories at 1200 AM CDT and 200 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

======================================================================

 

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IN ADDITION…INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 94.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 94.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 94.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…140NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 94.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

============================================================================

 

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Harvey’s rapid intensification seems to have slowed for the moment,
as an eye seen earlier in satellite imagery has lost definition
during the past few hours. In addition, reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that 700-mb flight level
winds are in the 75-80 kt range, with reliable surface wind
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer remaining
near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure
has slowly fallen to 973 mb inside the 16 n mi wide eye. Based on
these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt, and this could be a
little conservative.

Harvey has turned a little to the left since the last advisory with
the initial motion now 315/9. A mid-level anticyclone over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Harvey generally
northwestward with a decreasing forward speed for the next 36-48 h,
with the center now forecast to make landfall on the middle Texas
coast in about 36 h. This part of the new forecast track has been
nudged a little to the left based mainly on the initial position
and motion. After landfall, the cyclone is likely to get stuck
between the Gulf anticyclone and a stronger anticyclone over the
western United States, with little motion likely from 48-96 h.
A slow eastward motion appears likely by 120 h due to the influence
of a trough in the westerlies digging into the eastern United
States. There is some spread in the guidance at that time, with
the GFS showing Harvey drifting slowly eastward and the ECMWF
showing a faster motion. The new forecast track splits this
difference of 5-day forecasts and lies near the consensus models.

It is unclear why the intensification has slowed, although it is
possibly due to some dry air seen earlier wrapping around the north
side of the core convection. Otherwise, Harvey remains in an
favorable environment for further strengthening with low vertical
shear and high oceanic heat content. The intensity forecast will
use the scenario that rapid intensification will resume tonight,
with Harvey becoming a major hurricane before landfall in Texas.
After landfall, the intensity forecast is based on the scenario that
Harvey will weaken over land, but it will remain close enough to
the coast so that the weakening will be slower than normal. Thus,
the forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm from 72-120 h.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 25.2N 94.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W 100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND

====================================================================

WTNT84 KNHC 250238
TCVAT4

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1038 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ237-238-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

=====================================================================

 

HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS…85 MPH…140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

The link below will help with where the weather and particular from Far-South, Texas to the areas around Galveston, Houston and the Western Louisiana.

https://wordpress.com/post/stlluna7.wordpress.com/9621

US

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)

STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 12(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 13(23)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 15(29)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 10(25)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 13(33)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 15(35)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 12(26) 20(46) 12(58)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 13(27)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 5(17)

FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 11(34)
FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 10(21) 14(35) 12(47)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14)
LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 12(25) 16(41) 13(54)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 10(19)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9)

JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 10(22) 11(33) 9(42)
JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 12(32) 14(46) 8(54)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16)
KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 7(19) 13(32) 17(49) 9(58)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 10(22)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 11(12) 26(38) 9(47) 17(64) 12(76) 5(81)
GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) 13(32) 10(42)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 8(22)

HOUSTON TX 34 1 6( 7) 35(42) 12(54) 15(69) 9(78) 3(81)
HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) 9(27) 5(32)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12)

AUSTIN TX 34 1 2( 3) 29(32) 19(51) 12(63) 5(68) 1(69)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20)
AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) 43(47) 15(62) 9(71) 3(74) X(74)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) 1(29)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 2 35(37) 31(68) 6(74) 11(85) 5(90) 1(91)
FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 14(34) 15(49) 7(56)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 11(26) 5(31)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 9 62(71) 7(78) 2(80) 8(88) 5(93) 1(94)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 16(35) 20(55) 8(63)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) 15(31) 10(41)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 9(30) 16(46) 16(62) 8(70)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 11(21) 10(31)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16)

MATAGORDA TX 34 2 66(68) 22(90) 2(92) 3(95) 2(97) X(97)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X 7( 7) 33(40) 7(47) 15(62) 11(73) 3(76)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 10(31) 11(42) 3(45)

PORT O CONNOR 34 2 81(83) 14(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 25(25) 44(69) 4(73) 10(83) 4(87) 1(88)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X 4( 4) 38(42) 5(47) 10(57) 8(65) 1(66)

ROCKPORT TX 34 2 87(89) 10(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 43(43) 45(88) 3(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X 13(13) 55(68) 7(75) 4(79) 1(80) 1(81)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 81(83) 14(97) 1(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 32(32) 46(78) 5(83) 1(84) 2(86) 1(87)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 8( 8) 44(52) 6(58) 2(60) 3(63) 1(64)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 85 15(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 15 80(95) 1(96) X(96) 2(98) 1(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 2 77(79) 2(81) X(81) 5(86) 3(89) 1(90)

MCALLEN TX 34 2 15(17) 14(31) 6(37) 9(46) 17(63) 3(66)
MCALLEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 9(21) 1(22)
MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

HARLINGEN TX 34 2 40(42) 10(52) 5(57) 6(63) 15(78) 2(80)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 5(19) 13(32) 3(35)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 1(12)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 4 37(41) 7(48) 5(53) 6(59) 16(75) 2(77)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 13(30) 2(32)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 1(11)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 27 4(31) 3(34) 3(37) 5(42) 16(58) 3(61)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) 9(17) 2(19)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

LA PESCA MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 9(19) 2(21)

TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=ewx#hti

Please review data in the link above.  It can provide context and a lot of this has been changing.  A lot of really good information and it gives are more detailed and user-friendly.    Give it a try and keep in mind your local Emergency Management, local radio and TV resources.  TSgt McClish can elaborate as well,  or myself, time permitting. Geeze dude, things are changing fast. We used to plot LAT/LONG and our best guess is those forecast points.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) <– airname…

 

Yet again, with Harvey

two_atl_5d0 (13)

This is actually fun.  We see Oceanic  and Gulf of Mexico issues.  We have systems engourging each other.  It seems just as one system gains some validity, it falls apart.

The system has some obvious and important problems.   In 2-5 days an increase (80%) of potentiality is based upon assumption.  Assuming the path is going one place or another really matters.  Interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and how much of that crossing hits the Yucatan.   Earlier we have projections being a bit more westward,  thus the WSW component is really a best guess.   The Geometry really is hard to pin down.  Like with many projections you can go from 80%-20% and then disappearing altogether.

Looking again at this remnant of Harvey,   we see another interaction with the Yucatan.  We have a presumption of movement and if this system moves as they forecast this  movement could be problematic.  If it goes more westerly then it would basically scratch Belize as it departs the Yucatan.

If it swings more NW and WNW then where would it go? A more southerly turn would make this storm go to Depression heaven.   If this storm faces enough land mass, then the land will make a weak storm weaker.   If it goes between the Yucatan and Mexico then we have to re-work estimates as it crosses un-impeded in the Gulf of Mexico.

Is the environment more favorable in the Gulf?  And where does it end up?  A strong forward track inhibits a turn.  That is good (for us).  This is indeed the trickier proposition.   You see, Emergency Management has a hat in this rodeo and so does Home Depot and Lowes.  We would see a run on Home Depot and Lowes.

Against most important  is life and limb.  EM has a very tight juxtoposition here.  To man shelters and provide as much leeway as they can.  Hurricane or Tropical Force parties are ignorant. You could get holed up in Hotels without electricity.  After the Beer runs out, then the party just begins.   Don’t do that!   Now this is contingent upon path and strength and so it is vitally important that people listen to local TV and Emergency Management.

These are some of the EM difficulties and their’s is a difficult matter.  Only weather men or gals do this (for the most part) but I suggest that you don’t do that.  Even a stronger Tropical Storm can make a   big difference.  The center is really not the issue as much as the Storm’s periphery.

GULFIR172322215

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL ADVISORIES!  Do drive through flooding and avoid the chance of other kinds of problems.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

EM is doing you a favor.  Be mindful of that fact.


 

800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.


Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)atl_00_sfc_analysis

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php

Follow that link to get Marine products.

 

Out to Sea, as always…

ANZ899-170545-  1115 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017      .SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS…Hurricane Gert was located at  37.4N 65.7W at 11 am this morning and was moving northeast  at 22 kt. Gert is forecast to track NE to near 39.0N 61.3W by 8  pm tonight and continue to move rapidly NE overnight and Thu.  Otherwise, a stationary front will extend over the nrn areas of  the offshore waters today.

A weak cold front will move into the N  waters later this afternoon and merge with the stalled front,  then persist over this region tonight through Thu night, then  slowly lift NE and N of the waters as a warm front Fri and Fri  night.

A high pres ridge will build just N of the area Thu and  Thu night, then shift NE of the area Fri and Fri night. A weak  cold front will push SE into the NW portion Sat night, then  continue slowly SE across the N and central waters Sun into Sun  night as another ridge builds in from the NW.      $$


ANZ910-170545-  East of 69W and south of 39N to 250 nm offshore-  1115 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017    TROPICAL STORM WARNING    TODAY  SE portion…E to NE winds 25 to 35 kt early, then  becoming NW 20 to 30 kt. NW portion…E to NE winds 20 to 30 kt  early, then becoming NW 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft…except NW  portion 10 to 18 ft.

TSTMs and scattered showers early.  TONIGHT  N winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt, becoming N to NW  5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 7 to 12 ft.  THU  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6  ft.  THU NIGHT  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.  FRI  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.  

FRI NIGHT  SE winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas  2 to 3 ft.  SAT  S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to  5 ft.  SAT NIGHT  S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.  SUN  S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas 4 to  6 ft.  SUN NIGHT  NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

A series of Tropical Weather systems off the African coast has a 40% chance of development.  Not big numbers,   and but between 3-5 days,  we will know a bit more.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171630-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Limited Excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Afternoon heat indices will top out in the middle to upper 90s,
mainly across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop from
west to east across the outlook area this afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms can then be expected tonight as a cold front moves
southeast through the region.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight, mainly to the west and north of a Gainesville to Salem
line. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.

Torrential rainfall can also be expected from these storms due to
high moisture content in the atmosphere. Flash flooding will
therefore be possible in areas where multiple storms move over
the same areas. The highest risk for flash flooding will be across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms will occur through the
upcoming week and into the weekend.

Heat index values will be the 90s each day into the weekend and
as high as 100 by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and tonight
mainly to the west and north of a Gainesville to Salem line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Schaumann



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
KSC021-MOC011-097-170000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.W.0072.170816T1703Z-170817T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Cherokee County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Barton County in southwestern Missouri...
  Northwestern Jasper County in southwestern Missouri...

* Until 700 PM CDT Wednesday

* At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain has
  already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Creeks, streams, and low water crossings will be especially
  susceptible to the dangers of flash flooding.
  Locations in the warning include...
  Northern Joplin...                Webb City...
  Carl Junction...                  Lamar...
  Baxter Springs...                 Columbus...
  Galena...                         Oronogo...
  Jasper...                         Golden City...
  Airport Drive...                  Weir...
  Lowell...                         Alba...
  Scammon...                        Purcell...
  Nashville...                      Carytown...
  Asbury...                         Neck City...

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...
Highway 7 at Little Cherry Creek north of Columbus...
Route JJ at Center Creek southeast of Carl Junction...
Highway 126 at The Spring River 3 miles north of Jasper...
Route O at The Spring River just south of Alba...
and Route C at Horse Creek east of Milford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9503 3734 9469 3734 9462 3736 9462
      3755 9432 3760 9420 3762 9408 3741 9408
      3732 9416 3712 9454 3706 9462 3700 9462
      3700 9507 3715 9508

$$

Cramer



 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1054 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Into Tonight...

.Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected across
portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri into tonight
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts exceeding 5
inches possible. Given the large amount of moisture in the
atmosphere, intense rainfall rates may quickly lead to flash
flooding.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093-094-171200-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.A.0008.170816T1600Z-170817T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Barton-Cedar-
Polk-Dallas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Newton-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Fort Scott, Pawnee Station, Chicopee,
Lone Oak, Pittsburg, Baxter Springs, Lowell, Riverton, Columbus,
Neutral, Sherwin, Stippville, NEVADA, Tiffin, Appleton City,
Johnson City, Weaubleau, Hermitage, Quincy, Wheatland,
Cross Timbers, Kenoma, Lamar, Cedar Springs, El Dorado Springs,
Filley, Arnica, Caplinger Mills, Stockton, Bolivar, Buffalo,
Charity, Foose, March, Plad, Windyville, Olive, Joplin, Carthage,
Greenfield, Lockwood, Meinert, Springfield, Marshfield,
Northview, Seymour, Rogersville, Neosho, Aurora, Mount Vernon,
and Marionville
1054 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Kansas and
  Missouri, including the following areas, in southeast Kansas,
  Bourbon, Cherokee, and Crawford. In Missouri, Barton, Cedar,
  Dade, Dallas, Greene, Hickory, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton, Polk,
  St. Clair, Vernon, and Webster.

* Through Thursday morning

* Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected through
  tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with
  localized amounts over 5 inches possible. The rain will fall at
  a very rapid rate and may quickly lead to flash flooding.

* Areas that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms will see an
  increased risk for flash flooding. Rapid rises along area creeks
  and streams can be expected, along with the potential flooding
  of low water crossings. Motorists and campers should be
  especially alert for flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1009 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

NCZ099-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-171415-
Columbus-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
1009 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heat index values of 100-104 this afternoon and 102-107 Friday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$




Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

NCZ099-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-162100-
/O.NEW.KILM.HT.Y.0005.170816T1700Z-170816T2100Z/
Columbus-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-
Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
Including the cities of Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn,
Lake Waccamaw, Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte,
Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville, Darlington, North Hartsville,
Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins, Kingstree, Conway, Red Hill,
Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach, Garden City,
Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, and Murrells Inlet
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* Heat Index Values...Up to 106 due to temperatures in the lower
  90s, and dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s.

* Timing...Early this afternoon into early evening.

* Impacts...High heat and humidity will increase the risk fo


Pacific Paratrooper

This blog courtesy Pacific Paratrooper

It cannot be said enough.  The Philippine military played a crucial role in securing their country and lands around the world.   Some of this is lore, but a great portion was not.  The Bataan March, the bombings of Hospitals and the sheer cruelty to the Filipino people. We do love you for all that and more.

maxresdefault (4)

5661551111download (1).jpg

shopping.jpg 1221117.jpg

The link was by Paratrooper,  and the rest and the rest by me.

ELMIRA

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
356 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-030800-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
356 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
A strong cold front will move into Upstate New York and Pennsylvania
Friday night and slice into a very warm and humid air mass. This will
set the stage for a round of thunderstorms from late Friday afternoon
into the evening. The thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce very heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail. The showers
and storms will taper down late Friday night.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, or your local media for the latest
updates on this situation. You can also check out our facebook or
twitter page for more information.

Hazardous weather is not expected from Saturday through Tuesday at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday afternoon and evening.

$$
DJN



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
NYC025-022015-
/O.NEW.KBGM.FF.W.0038.170802T1714Z-170802T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
114 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Delaware County in central New York...

* Until 415 PM EDT

* At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
  already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rockland, Walton, Delhi, Roxbury, Colchester, Hamden, Andes,
  Stamford, Margaretville and Hobart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 7454 4220 7453 4217 7445 4215 7450
      4215 7453 4212 7456 4191 7500 4215 7529
      4242 7462 4235 7443

$$

KAH



 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
104 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

NYZ057-021800-
Delaware NY-
104 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...EAST CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 103 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of several
strong thunderstorms over Roxbury, or 16 miles east of Delhi, moving
east at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roxbury, Margaretville, Fleischmanns, Arkville, Halcottsville and New
Kingston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4215 7450 4215 7453 4212 7455 4213 7474
      4232 7476 4238 7449 4236 7447 4230 7446
      4220 7453 4217 7446 4216 7445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 266DEG 5KT 4225 7459

$$

JAB



 

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1235 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

NYC007-025-PAC115-127-021830-
/O.NEW.KBGM.FA.Y.0115.170802T1635Z-170802T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broome NY-Delaware NY-Susquehanna PA-Wayne PA-
1235 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Southeastern Broome County in central New York...
  Southwestern Delaware County in central New York...
  Northeastern Susquehanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Wayne County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 230 PM EDT

* At 1234 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to numerous
  thunderstorms slowly moving through the area. This will cause
  minor flooding in parts of the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Sanford, Susquehanna, Deposit, Susquehanna Depot, Hancock, Ararat,
  Lanesboro, Thompson, Starrucca and Hiawatha.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

 

The location near Africa and the Atlantic Basin are having difficulty forming.  Nothing to see here.

xyt

tisdale

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030830-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today, embedded within a broad
area of rain across North and Central Texas. Heavy rain and localized
flooding will be the main hazards from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Low chances for thunderstorms will linger across Central Texas on
Thursday.

An unsettled weather pattern will continue through early
next week resulting in more chances for thunderstorms across North
and Central Texas Friday through Tuesday. Locations that receive
multiple rounds of rainfall throughout this time period may begin to
experience localized flooding.

Excessive Heat Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
316 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

WAZ504-507-509-511-512-555-556-558-559-030000-
/O.CON.KSEW.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/
Southwest Interior-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
316 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Unusually hot weather will continue through
  Friday. Widespread record highs are expected today and Thursday.
  Thursday should be the hottest day for most spots when highs
  will probably be within 5 degrees of the all-time records. Highs
  on Wednesday will be in the 90s. Thursday will be slightly
  warmer with 90s to near 104. Friday will be slightly cooler,
  but highs will still be in the upper 80s and 90s.

* TIMING...Through early Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Heat illnesses are possible with temperatures this
  hot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
unusually hot weather will occur, creating a dangerous situation
in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during
hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a
matter of minutes.

&&

$$



Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
825 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.Dry unstable conditions will continue into Thursday particularly
in the Cascades and Olympics. Meeting Red Flag Warning criteria
for the Puget Sound area lowlands south into the southwest
interior looks less likely, but still possible for Thursday
afternoon.

WAZ654-655-657-022330-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FW.A.0002.170803T2100Z-170804T0600Z/
Central and South Puget Sound Lowlands-
Black Hills and Southwest Interior Lowlands-
Southeast Puget Sound Lowlands Generally Below 1500 Feet-
825 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 654, 655, AND 657...

* FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 654, 655, AND 657...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 654. Fire weather zone 655.
  Fire weather zone 657.

* HAINES...Midlevel Haines rising to 6 or higher.

* TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY...Highs today in the 90s and Thursday
  ranging from 96 to 104. Relative humidities this afternoon to
  drop into the lower to mid 20 percent range, and Thursday
  afternoon range from the upper teens to mid 20s.

* IMPACTS...Conditions may become favorable for rapid spread on
  any new or existing fires. Any outdoor burning is not
  recommended.

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
533 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.Copious amounts of monsoonal moisture will continue to stream
across Southwestern California through Thursday. There will be a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire region
today and early tonight. Due to abundant moisture throughout the
atmosphere, there will be the potential for intense downpours with
any thunderstorms. This will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially to interior sections.

Particularly vulnerable to the effects of heavy downpours will be
locations in and below recent burn areas such as the Whittier and
Alamo burn areas. In addition to an increased threat of flash
flooding, mud and debris flows will be a concern should heavy rain
occur.

Latest computer models indicate that the moisture will linger
into Thursday night, especially in the mountains and the Antelope
Valley, so the Flash Flood watch may have to be extended in some
areas.

CAZ547-021945-
/O.EXA.KLOX.FF.A.0008.170802T1800Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
Including the cities of Woodland Hills, Northridge, Burbank,
and Universal City
533 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has expanded
the

* Flash Flood Watch to include the San Fernando Valley.

* From 11 AM PDT this morning through this evening

* Monsoonal moisture will bring a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms to the area. Some thunderstorms may produce
  intense downpours which could lead to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030830-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today, embedded within a broad
area of rain across North and Central Texas. Heavy rain and localized
flooding will be the main hazards from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Low chances for thunderstorms will linger across Central Texas on
Thursday.

An unsettled weather pattern will continue through early
next week resulting in more chances for thunderstorms across North
and Central Texas Friday through Tuesday. Locations that receive
multiple rounds of rainfall throughout this time period may begin to
experience localized flooding.

Excessive Heat Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
316 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

WAZ504-507-509-511-512-555-556-558-559-030000-
/O.CON.KSEW.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/
Southwest Interior-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
316 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Unusually hot weather will continue through
  Friday. Widespread record highs are expected today and Thursday.
  Thursday should be the hottest day for most spots when highs
  will probably be within 5 degrees of the all-time records. Highs
  on Wednesday will be in the 90s. Thursday will be slightly
  warmer with 90s to near 104. Friday will be slightly cooler,
  but highs will still be in the upper 80s and 90s.

* TIMING...Through early Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Heat illnesses are possible with temperatures this
  hot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
unusually hot weather will occur, creating a dangerous situation
in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during
hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a
matter of minutes.

&&

$$



Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
825 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.Dry unstable conditions will continue into Thursday particularly
in the Cascades and Olympics. Meeting Red Flag Warning criteria
for the Puget Sound area lowlands south into the southwest
interior looks less likely, but still possible for Thursday
afternoon.

WAZ654-655-657-022330-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FW.A.0002.170803T2100Z-170804T0600Z/
Central and South Puget Sound Lowlands-
Black Hills and Southwest Interior Lowlands-
Southeast Puget Sound Lowlands Generally Below 1500 Feet-
825 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 654, 655, AND 657...

* FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 654, 655, AND 657...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 654. Fire weather zone 655.
  Fire weather zone 657.

* HAINES...Midlevel Haines rising to 6 or higher.

* TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY...Highs today in the 90s and Thursday
  ranging from 96 to 104. Relative humidities this afternoon to
  drop into the lower to mid 20 percent range, and Thursday
  afternoon range from the upper teens to mid 20s.

* IMPACTS...Conditions may become favorable for rapid spread on
  any new or existing fires. Any outdoor burning is not
  recommended.

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
533 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.Copious amounts of monsoonal moisture will continue to stream
across Southwestern California through Thursday. There will be a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire region
today and early tonight. Due to abundant moisture throughout the
atmosphere, there will be the potential for intense downpours with
any thunderstorms. This will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially to interior sections.

Particularly vulnerable to the effects of heavy downpours will be
locations in and below recent burn areas such as the Whittier and
Alamo burn areas. In addition to an increased threat of flash
flooding, mud and debris flows will be a concern should heavy rain
occur.

Latest computer models indicate that the moisture will linger
into Thursday night, especially in the mountains and the Antelope
Valley, so the Flash Flood watch may have to be extended in some
areas.

CAZ547-021945-
/O.EXA.KLOX.FF.A.0008.170802T1800Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
Including the cities of Woodland Hills, Northridge, Burbank,
and Universal City
533 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has expanded
the

* Flash Flood Watch to include the San Fernando Valley.

* From 11 AM PDT this morning through this evening

* Monsoonal moisture will bring a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms to the area. Some thunderstorms may produce
  intense downpours which could lead to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
ak

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1123 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

AKZ217-218-030730-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FA.Y.0011.170801T1941Z-170803T0730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Southeastern Brooks Range-
1123 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a

* Small Stream Flood Advisory for Rapid Rises for...
  The Upper Noatak, Kobuk, and Alatna River Basins...

* Until 1130 PM AKDT Wednesday

* Over 1 inch of rain fell over much of the upper Noatak, Kobuk, and
  Alatna River basins since Monday. A second weather front moving
  across the Brooks Range will bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of
  rain through Wednesday. Some locations north of Ambler and Kobuk
  may receive over 2 inches of rain.

* Rapid rises and minor flooding of small streams draining the
  northwest Brooks Range will begin this evening and continue into
  Wednesday. This includes small streams in the upper Noatak, Kobuk,
  and Alatna River valleys. Larger rivers in this area will
  experience sharp rises over the next several days, but flooding of
  the larger rivers is not expected at this time.

* People in this region of the Brooks Range should be prepared for
  rising water and increased debris moving down streams and rivers.
  Gravel bars will be covered and water will rise into the brush
  line on many rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated or ponding
of water is occurring or is imminent.sacre

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1154 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

.Widespread triple digit temperatures are expected across the
Valley and surrounding terrain through Thursday. Peak heat is
expected through Today. This will continue the risk for heat
related illnesses for the general population and especially for
sensitive groups.

CAZ014-017-019-067>069-030000-
/O.CON.KSTO.HT.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170804T0300Z/
Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Southern Sacramento Valley-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Motherlode-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park-
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Including the cities of Burney, Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto,
Grass Valley, Jackson, Chester, Quincy, and Blue Canyon
1154 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures 98 to 108 degrees at
  elevations below 6000 feet. Overnight lows in the low 60s to
  mid 70s.

* IMPACTS...Long outdoor exposure will increase chances for heat
  related illness, especially for sensitive groups and people
  without access to AC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
855 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
031100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
855 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the
region today as an approaching disturbance aloft interacts with an
increasingly moist atmosphere. Locations which receive repeated
heavy rains could experience minor flooding...otherwise severe
weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Elevated mainly afternoon and early evening rain chances remain in
the forecast through early next week. Severe weather is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$



Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
147 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

TXC245-361-022045-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0068.170802T1847Z-170802T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson TX-Orange TX-
147 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
  for...
  Northwestern Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
  Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT

* At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
  Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in
  the advisory area. Rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour can be
  expected in the storms, with totals rainfall amounts of 2 to 3
  inches possible.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Vidor, West Orange, Nome, Bevil
  Oaks, China, Rose City, Pine Forest and Orangefield.
ribbon-with-logo

Emily – Just a mid-latitude Low

Business Card 2FAX

 

Really Emily has been  nothing more than a Low.  Even now it sits off the Coast of Florida,  with Mininum Central Pressure of 1010mb.  The norm is 1013.2.   The other thing, is it did what was expected in terms of relative movement.  The issue now is more a rain event and most likely closer to the Outer Banks and then beating a hasty retreat NE.   You can see on satellite where it is being absorbed along the Cold Frontal Boundary.  The next system should be weaker.    I think that the NHC is being hopeful with their storm forecasts.   (Quite naturally).

The X off the coast of Africa shows some wave effect.  That should be entrained into the frontal boundary and remnants of Emily.  It gets a bit active this year and the system off the coast of Florida is pretty standard stuff.  Being inland the systems have these tiny impulses.  If they get a warm water(hot-spots) regime,  adiabatic processes are enhanced. But there are too many things that can happen between Cape Verde and the shores of the U.S.

Excessive Heat Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
218 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...

ORZ003>008-010>016-WAZ019-020-022-039-040-045-046-022230-
/O.CON.KPQR.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/
Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-
Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Lower Columbia-
Greater Portland Metro Area-Central Willamette Valley-
South Willamette Valley-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-
Northern Oregon Cascades-Cascade Foothills in Lane County-
Cascades in Lane County-Upper Hood River Valley-
Western Columbia River Gorge-Central Columbia River Gorge-
South Washington Cascades-Willapa Hills-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
South Washington Cascade Foothills-
Including the cities of Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit,
Lees Camp, Trask, Grande Ronde, Burnt Woods, Tidewater,
Swisshome, Veneta, St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro, Portland,
Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, McMinnville,
Woodburn, Stayton, Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis,
Albany, Lebanon, Sandy, Estacada, Silver Falls State Park,
Sweet Home, Government Camp, Detroit, Santiam Pass, Vida, Jasper,
Lowell, Cottage Grove, McKenzie Pass, McKenzie Bridge, Oakridge,
Willamette Pass, Parkdale, Odell, Corbett, Rooster Rock,
Multnomah Falls, Cascade Locks, Hood River,
Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center, Mount St. Helens,
Wind River Valley, Willapa, Frances, Ryderwood, Longview, Kelso,
Castle Rock, Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal,
Yacolt, Amboy, Toutle, Ariel, Lake Merwin, Yale Lake, Cougar,
North Bonneville, Stevenson, Carson, and Underwood
218 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...Record high temperatures are expected inland.
  Temperatures will climb to around 100 this afternoon, heating up
  to 104 to 108 on Wednesday and Thursday. The heat will continue
  into Friday, with temperatures near 100 likely. Low temperatures
  are expected to remain warm, dropping only into the mid 60s to
  lower 70s in the valleys. In the foothills and lower Cascades,
  overnight temperatures will remain very warm at night with lows
  only in the mid 70s to low 80s.

* TIMING...Today through the end of the week. Wednesday and
  Thursday will be the hottest days, with record setting high
  temperatures and poor overnight recovery. Friday could also be
  another record setting day. Above normal temperatures are
  expected to continue through early next week.

* IMPACTS...The elderly, people without access to air
  conditioning, and anyone engaged in prolonged outdoor
  activities will be be particularly vulnerable during this heat
  episode. Local power demand is expected to be at high levels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. Hot temperatures will
create a dangerous situation in which heat related illnesses are
likely. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances, even for short periods of time.
This is especially true during warm or hot weather when car
interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

&&

$$


 

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
233 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...Multiple Fire Weather Hazards Across Northwest Oregon and
Southwest Washington this Week...

.Very hot temperatures with low humidity will affect the region
this week. There are a couple different impacts regarding fire
weather bringing potential for rapid fire spread. A thermal
trough has set up west of the Cascades and will drift from over
the Willamette Valley at night to over the Cascades during the
day. This will bring breezy winds to the Willamette Valley today
along with humidity below 25%. This thermal trough will also bring
very unstable low level conditions to the area through at least
Thursday, increasing the likelihood of plume dominated fire
activity mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

ORZ604-020600-
/O.CON.KPQR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170804T0600Z/
Willamette Valley-
233 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PLUS FOR SIGNIFICANTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 604...

* Winds...North winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
  primarily across the southern two thirds of Fire Weather Zone
  604 in the Willamette Valley. Dry and locally breezy
  conditions elsewhere.

* Instability...Mid-level Haines 6 and High-level Haines 5 or 6
  conditions will produce an unstable atmosphere conducive for
  rapid fire growth for all of Fire Weather Zone 604.

* Humidity...as low as 10-20%.

* Timing...Tuesday afternoon and evening.

* Affected Area...In Oregon...Fire Weather Zone 604 Willamette
  Valley.

* Impacts...FOR WIND/RH: Conditions may be favorable for rapid
  fire spread which may threaten life and property. Use extra
  caution with potential ignition sources, especially in grassy
  areas. FOR INSTABILITY: Conditions may be favorable for rapid
  spread on any new and existing fires. Extreme fire behavior is
  possible. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Wx Fax Machinekajocape-MMAP-md

Meteorologist Mike Scott (Larry Olson)

Official Meteorologist of the World Outlaws,

World Racing Group

East Bay Raceway, Tampa

I-30 Speedway,  Little Rock, AR.

WRBQ/WXBQ/etc.