Weather. Spring-like today!

http://doubledownweather.weebly.com/

Here is some of the best weather forecasting for the World of Outlaws, just click on the link, Mike Scott is my airname.

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Arctic Oscillation has a profound affect upon our weather  as cold air rushes out of Canada and Alaska,  Mountainous area tend to dry these systems out.

In the negative phases of AO, colder weather can subside into the SE US.  The trouble happens (ice and snow) when a Miller-B climate pattern exists.  Warm overruning, warm air going over the cold air and falls through that airmass,   Mid-latitude storms (Lows and troughs) spin that ‘

The Miller-B Climate Pattern induces cyclogenesis (Low Pressue Area)  Ex:  Cape Hatteras.  Italy has the same set-up,  pushing warm maritime moisture over the colder air.   Alaska’s temperatures are a precursor,  for what we see across the Tennessee Valley and into the southeast USA.

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    Pocatello,  ID.
Wind: N 6 MPHRH: 84%DewPt: 7 °F  More Details (KPIH)     XML View
Event:Winter Weather Advisory
Alert:…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON… * IMPACTS/TIMING…SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SLICK ROADS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. *

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE. * LOCATIONS…MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. INCLUDING IDAHO FALLS…BLACKFOOT…REXBURG…POCATELLO AND SODA SPRINGS.

Instructions:A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Target Area:Caribou Highlands
Lower Snake River Plain
Upper Snake Highlands
Upper Snake River Plain

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URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 925 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 NYZ007-008-301700- /O.EXT.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151230T1700Z/

JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WATERTOWN…LOWVILLE 925 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 …FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY… * LOCATIONS…JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES…ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS. * TIMING…THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS…A GLAZE OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. *

IMPACTS…OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ANY UNTREATED OR ELEVATED SURFACES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING…WHICH CAN MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFFECTED AREAS…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD…PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT…BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

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Floyd Parton was a SMSgt in the Air Force’s ‘Air Weather Service’.   He also served at Hickam AB, HI in the Solar Observations and then retired and worked with the Treasury Department in Kentucky.

It has been around two years since Floyd passed due to complications of ALS (Lou Gehrig’s Disease).  This illness has been known to occur at higher rates amongst the military community.   


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For More detailed weather go to the fourth page in the dropdown menu of the upper right corner of this.
Forecast: 

Cloudy skies with light rains will be experienced over the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will be experienced over metro manila and the rest of Luzon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms will prevail over Visayas and Mindanao.

Moderate to strong winds coming from the northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast with slight to moderate seas.

Maulap na kalangitan na may mahinang pag-ulan ang mararanasan sa mga rehiyon ng Ilocos, Cordillera at Cagayan. Bahagyang maulap hanggang sa maulap na kalangitan na may pulu-pulong mahinang mga pag-ulan ang mararanasan sa Metro Manila at nalalabing bahagi ng Luzon. Bahagyang maulap hanggang sa maulap na papawirin na may pulu-pulong mga pag-ulan o pagkidlat-pagkulog ang iiral sa Kabisayaan at Mindanao.

Katamtaman hanggang sa malakas na hangin mula sa hilagang-silangan ang iiral sa Hilagang Luzon at ang mga baybaying dagat nito ay magiging katamtaman hanggang sa maalon. Sa ibang dako, ang hangin ay magiging mahina hanggang sa katamtaman mula sa hilagang-silangan na may banayad hanggang sa katamtamang pag-alon ng karagatan.



DECEMBER 2015 

RPMM: 290600 

AREA SYNOPSIS AND 24-HOUR SHIPPING FORECAST

BEGINNING: 291200 

SYNOPSIS:
Issued at: 5:00 PM today, 30 December 2015
Valid Beginning: 5:00 PM today until 5:00 PM tomorrow

Synopsis:

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms will be experienced over Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. Cloudy skies with light rains will prevail over Cagayan Valley and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will be experienced over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms will prevail over the rest of the country.

Moderate to strong winds coming from the northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast with slight to moderate seas.

TERMINAL AREA FORECASTS (TAF)


​TAF RPLL

301100Z  3012/3118  09010KT 9999 FEW025 SCT100 TX31/3106Z TN23/3021Z TEMPO 3012/3018  08005KT FEW023 TEMPO 3018/3023 VRB02KT TEMPO 3101/3107  04011KT FEW025 BKN100=

TAF RPVM

301100Z 3012/3112  07008KT 9999 FEW020  TX31/3106Z TN21/3022Z TEMPO 3012/3018  04005KT FEW020 SCT080=

TAF RPLB
301100Z 3012/3112  07008KT 9999 FEW020  TX31/3106Z TN21/3022Z TEMPO 3012/3018  04005KT FEW020 SCT080=

TAF RPLC
301100Z 3012/3112  05006KT 9999  FEW020  BKN300  TX30/3106Z TN21/3021Z TEMPO 3012/3018  29008KT FEW020 SCT100 BKN300=


TAF RPLI

301100Z 3012/3112  04012KT  9999  FEW019 SCT100  TEMPO  3012/3018  04008KT FEW019 BKN100 TEMPO 3103/3109 04014G24KT=

TAF RPVP
301100Z 3012/3112  09008KT 9999  FEW019  SCT250 TEMPO 3015/3021  29006KT  FEW017CB SCT019 SCT250=

TAF RPVD
301100Z 3012/3112  02010KT 9999  FEW018 SCT220   TEMPO 3012/3018  36004KT FEW015CB SCT017 SCT080=


TAF RPMR

301100Z 3012/3112  04005KT 9999 FEW018  SCT080 TEMPO 3012/3018  02002KT  FEW018 BKN080=



TAF RPMD

301100Z 3012/3112  34006KT 9999  FEW016  SCT290  TEMPO 3012/3018  02007KT FEW016   SCT090=

TAF RPMZ
301100Z  3012/3112  04004KT 9999  FEW018  BKN300 TEMPO 3012/3018  00000KT FEW017CB  SCT018 BKN300=

Northern Luzon

RAINFALL WARNING 
 
NATION CAPITAL REGION


ADVISORYCommunity AWARENESS
FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low-lying areas
and near river channels ALERT
Community PREPAREDNESS
FLOODING is THREATHENING in low-lying areas
and near river channels EMERGENCY
Community RESPONSE
SEVERE FLOODING is EXPECTED
Take necessary precautionaryAL c measures
02x

The Philippines, the World, my friends

Back on the 5th of this Month I warned of something of this nature.    I noticed it was showing a very strong center eye and a devastatingly large wall cloud.    The wall cloud was as big as many Typhoons,  Hurricanes or Cyclones.     Each general region has it’s own particular name for it,  though the Cyclone in America is any area of low pressure.  

  Before I forget I have been a tropical weather forecaster for at least 25 years and a forecaster for a lot longer than that.   I have always had a penchant for feeling the weather and seeing the obvious warning signs.   Any forecaster who uses only data has a very limited sense of tropical weather and forecasting in general.    I have done tropical weather for the Caribbean,  Jamaica,  Monserrat, the Bahamas and the Virgin Islands.   I even done a station called,  WGOD.   And it was Christian because I can not imagine tempting God like that.  I have done weather for about 100 radio stations altogether.

  The country has 7,107 islands so that right there makes the country vulnerable to all sorts of mischief.   Couple that with the weather patterns that include Low Pressure Areas (LPAs),    Intertropical Convergence Zones,  Tropical Storms,  monsoonal patterns and the much despised Typhoons.   The basic issue with Typhoons is there is very little resistance in the atmosphere and the warm tropical waters in the Pacific. 

Their kin,  the Hurricane,  often starts early on off the coast of Africa as a cluster of thunderstorms and moves out to sea.   A general area of Low Pressure  becomes a noticeable wave or kink in the isotropic flow.    We do streamline  analyses of these systems and see if there is anything out there to enhance these disturbances.     Sheering can lop off the head of the beast or even cold waters.   Once out of the restrictive environments,   it can develop quickly as it reaches warmer waters or and cold air above the storm.   Once compacted these storms develop an eye and a wall cloud and of course,  the feeder bands.     Typhoon Yolanda had a very tight eye which suggests a strengthening storm and a humungous wall cloud.   That is the area right around the eye.    As I saw the projected trajectory I was immediately thinking this could be devastating.   Nothing but a freight train of winds and savage rainshowers.   The process that digests the thermal properties of the storm is called adiabatic cooling.   

Think of these as self-sustained entities which become engorged with moisture and a low pressure reading that is off the chart low.   If these systems have a very low pressure area that is also an indication of trouble ahead.  The next critical problem is storm path.   Generally one or two things happen,  either some upper air steering winds moves it or it goes towards lower pressure.   Think of this low pressure as a gutter in a bowling alley.     This was pretty clear with Yolanda,   as it’s forward speed was quite fast.    Of course track deviations are possible but at high speeds inertia keeps the area bound within some pretty broad parameters.  But this is the Meteorology and that alone is not the whole story.    Admittedly,  it is a difficult venture but now the country is suffering from a kind of organizational paralysis. 

  Also, forecasters and disaster preparedness types often don’t shoot for the high end numbers in a little trick of forecasting called persistence.   I am pretty sure that better warning systems could be used and a much better lead time.   That said,  this storm would have blown up places in Miami that have been reinforced since Andrew destroyed much of South Florida.    This storm (Yolanda) was virtually unprecedented.     I guess the question that many Filipino are asking,  is “why is cleanup taking so long?”  The problem is there are family members laying in the street,  bloated from the decay of death.    And I won’t make this just about the kids,  because it is any wonder that many of yesteryears kids are around given the raucous weather patterns in the deep Pacific.    On a personal level,   I am worn out.  

 

I am worried about the morale of the country and how it becomes personal when it is people you love and all those lives wiped out so mercilessly.    At this time,  the people who love that country can only sit back and perhaps donate some money.   It is really too early for care packages because disseminating them would be difficult,  given the roads are blocked and strewn with bodies.  

One who has little to do with the Philippines might keep in mind,  that this people are hale and hearty and sure to rebound in kind,  but like a boxer becomes punch weary.    I feel such sadness which complicates my severe depression anxiety,   but I will not stand idly by and do nothing.     The Philippine people and America are inextricably linked.   Though the country is independent and growing,   they also have a large love of this country.   They died in league with us and they were tortured and abused on a scale so horrific,  then mere words cannot cover the costs.   Suffice it to say,   that the American GI most of the time thinks kindly of their times at Angeles and Clark AB.    I guess all I can do is send my heart out to you.   My friend who now lives in the USA but was from Cebu,   tells me of her sadness and I have had the luxury of meeting and participating with the Pinoy people for a very long time and it has been my honor and privilege.

Surrender

Bataan USA Honors

Dead-soldiers-on-the-Bataan-Death-March

The above pics are graphic but tell the tale of a horrific and misused people and yet,  Americans marched along side the fateful Americans who died similarly with them.   This is why this should matter to Americans because they died for us and we died for them.   Our peoples suffered concentration camps and where Japanese soldiers beheaded children in front of the mothers and then raped them.

Filipino

The country boasts some famous people like Manny Pacquiao,   the coach of the Miami Heat,   Jessica Sanchez and a cadre of war heroes both past and present.    Lou Diamond Philips and Tim Tebow was born there,  and Phoebe Cates has some Filipino blood also.

The Tebows are loved for what they do for the people there and a people who benefit from the love and understanding that we can use from time to time.   No man or woman is an island but in the Pacific there are 7,107 islands with a lot of pain and sadness.

 

 

Air Weather Service (Air Force Weather Agency)

Veterans of the old Air Weather Service look at the new equipment being used today in the Air Force Weather Agency and we shake our heads.  The 21st Air Force in Europe has some really nice gear while the old machines were more like Machines than sophisticated Weather Electonics of today.

ImageImageImage  A lot has transpired since I left the Military on Aug,  11,  1985.    The Weather Service itself used to be affiliated with Army,  then the Air Air Force and finally the Air Force as we know it today.   With all that change it was not only the designations but also the equipment that went through a kind of technological renaissance as well.     From the more crude analog equipment and FPS-77 Weather Radar to newer NEXRAD and Doppler Radar.

The power curve for this new Weather product has brought the Air Force into the modern world.   The newness of our equipment quite naturally will be determined by funding but quality forecasts and operational issues have kind of forced the Pentagon’s hand a bit and really that is a good thing.

While stationed at Ramstein,  our teletype machine was crude and very tempermental.  And you had to stand by waiting for the cue.   At Ramstein our cue was VB and you were that maybe the ticker tape would break and that would really suck.

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My weather observations were dependent on-real time weather data.  That data and this doesn’t include live satellite imagery so we were kind of limited as back then (1980ish) we had to wait for the GOES (GeoSynchronous) for the latest run.   Today that is not even a problem.   Up to the minute satellite shots make forecasts easier by far and you do not even need anything more than a PC.

The fax charts had scheduled runs so that information was a premium to us.   With newer satellites and sophicated equipment the different kinds of photos are so many that it is hard to keep up.   Water Vapor Charts,  Infrared Imagery and experimental algorithms have given the forecaster more to work.

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Satellite imagery can reveal thunderstorm tops and locations and further enhanced what radar imagery could do.    For example,  the radar may indicate some weather but if you look at the satellite you can determine whether that is in fact storms.   Sometimes radars would show what appeared to be rain when in fact it might just be buildings,  geese or false echoes.

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We also use other equipment which is what I call a weather matrix.  All this data would enhance our understanding.   Next is the weather fax machines.   It was actually a radio broadcast that was downlinked from Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska to our receiver at the Base Weather Station.

One other thing is that we actually had hand held equipment for use in the field.   I will show more of that down the line.    When I was in the first fax machines actually burned the images

These charts were then torn off the fax machine/date and time stamped and hung on the walls of the Forecaster’s area.

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These charts would sometimes be 20 feet long and we would have to process this paperwork so the forecasters could use it.   The other equipment was generally stacked and configured as you see below.

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To the far left was the Rotating Beam Ceilometer and it was used to use cloud bases below 3,000 AGL (Above Ground Level) .  Next to the right of the RBC was the Temperature and Dewpoint Indicators in Fahrenheit back then.

Next to the right of Temperature Indicator was the RO-362,  wind indicator.  This was a record of winds during any 24 hour period.   We would take checks to make sure it was synchronized and signed with our initials.   Peak wind gusts were noted as were windshifts (WSHFT).

The final piece of equipment was the Transmissometer which actually helped us determine the Runway Visual Range (RVR).   Base Operations would go out to the runway and determine if there was ice or snow on the Runway.   We would then report that to the Air Traffic Control via local and longline through our observations.

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From left to the right is a wind recorder, Comeds (longline transmissions) and temperature hut that protected the temperature from the sun and actually a fan to replicate wet bulb temperatures for humidity.

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Image There are two other pressure indicators and the upper left is used to determine station pressure in MB/IN and Pressure Altitude and the bottom left is the mercurial barometer which is used to calibrate the Aneroid and Microbarograph and these were checked every day.

Upper right was the teleautowriter that is a box with a pen and we would write on that and Air Traffic Controllers and Alert Aircraft would be notified,  especially the pressure because  that would tell the pilot where he was above the surface.  Pressure Altitude (PA).

The following is an updated Base Weather Station.   It includes holographs,  Upper Air Soundings (every 15 minutes) and Satellite,  Remote Observation Site and Flight weather Briefings and Terminal Area Forecasts.

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