Go away Harvey…

212527_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (1)

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.2N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 060 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 97.4
West. Harvey has been drifting east-northeastward for the past few
hours. Little additional motion is anticipated during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. San Marcos Regional Airport recently reported
sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph
(85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40
inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches
farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the
Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of
this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

====================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 75NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 97.6

============================================================================

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.
Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since
there are no surface observations near the center, this is the
intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is
anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the
SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey’s
circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could
weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.

 

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey’s winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

====================================================================

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS…65 MPH…100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

JASPER TX 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14)

HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16)

AUSTIN TX 34 11 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 3(22) 3(25) 1(26)
AUSTIN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 18 13(31) 2(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11)

MATAGORDA TX 34 12 4(16) 4(20) 4(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 8 10(18) 10(28) 4(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15)

MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

HARLINGEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

============================================================

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL092017
758 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ234>238-245>247-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220>227-231>233-241>244-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

southplains_loop (1)

HGX_loop (1)

EWX_loop

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Harvey inland – Still Dangerous

152744

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.9N 97.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…35 KM W OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Texas coast has been replaced with a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

Hurricane warnings continue for inland areas near the center of
Harvey. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the
center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland near the core
of Harvey. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

============================================================================

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

============================================================================

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

HURRICANE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE CENTER OF
HARVEY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 97.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 97.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 97.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.1N 97.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.2N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.7N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.7N 96.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 96.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 30.5N 96.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 97.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

===========================================================================

 

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has been inland for about 12 hours and weakening is under
way. Doppler radar data indicate that winds have decreased to 65 kt,
and that is the intensity used in this advisory. Since Harvey is
over land, a continued weakening is anticipated, and the NHC
forecast uses the trend provided by the SHIPS decay model. However,
if a portion of Harvey’s circulation remains over the Gulf of
Mexico, the cyclone could weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

The hurricane is moving very slowly toward the north at about 2 kt.
Harvey is embedded within very light steering currents, and global
models keep this weak flow in place for the next several days. Based
on this pattern, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5
days over southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. The only
agreement among the track guidance is that Harvey is certainly not
going anywhere fast.

This slow motion of the cyclone is expected to exacerbate the
potential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least
through the middle of next week.

Please note that hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCUs) have been
discontinued due to the degradation of Harvey’s center on radar.

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey’s winds have begun to weaken, life-threatening
hazards will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Thursday.
Please heed the advice of local officials and do not drive into
flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for
more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall
totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to recede
due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore
flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
12H 27/0000Z 29.1N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 27/1200Z 29.2N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 29.0N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 28.7N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 29.5N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 30.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

============================================================================

 

HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS…75 MPH…120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)

FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)

CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)

JASPER TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11)

GALVESTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 2(17)

HOUSTON TX 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 4(19) 3(22) 2(24)

AUSTIN TX 34 16 18(34) 8(42) 3(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48)
AUSTIN TX 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 17 20(37) 10(47) 2(49) 1(50) 1(51) 1(52)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)

FREEPORT TX 34 6 4(10) 3(13) 5(18) 4(22) 2(24) 2(26)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14)

MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)

PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15)

MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)

HARLINGEN TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2(

=======================================================================

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ235>238-245>247-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ234-270200-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-233-270200-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220-221-223-225>227-231-232-241>244-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

============================================================================

GULFWV172381745

 

152744_current_wind_sm

images (24)Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
271030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Harvey made landfall last night and has moved inland very slowly.
The majority of the rainbands continue across the central Texas
coast with this region this morning getting brushed but the outer
bands. A Tornado Watch continues for Jefferson... Hardin... and
Orange counties in southeast Texas. Rains will continue through
the day and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Harvey is expected to bring bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the region through the weekend and into next
week. Rainfall will be heavy at times and flooding of some
locations is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

$$


 

Severe Weather Statement

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

LAC019-261800-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170826T1800Z/
Calcasieu LA-
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH...

At 1244 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Carlyss, or 8
miles southwest of Sulphur, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Vinton and Edgerly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3032 9365 3037 9341 3005 9335 3005 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 162DEG 25KT 3014 9345

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Jones



 

Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

LAC019-261800-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170826T1800Z/
Calcasieu LA-
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH...

At 1244 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Carlyss, or 8
miles southwest of Sulphur, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Vinton and Edgerly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3032 9365 3037 9341 3005 9335 3005 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 162DEG 25KT 3014 9345

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Jones



 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

TORNADO WATCH 468 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC019-023-270700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0468.170826T1745Z-170827T0700Z/

LA
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CALCASIEU            CAMERON
$$



 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-270601-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0096.170829T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.1.ER.170829T0000Z.170830T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* from Monday evening until further notice...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  9:45 AM Saturday the stage was 22.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to
  rise to near 24.5 feet by Wednesday morning. This forecast is based
  upon 72 hours of expected precipitation. Further rises based upon
  continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 25.0 feet...Lowest roads beside the river
  flood around Deweyville and subject to being closed. In addition,
  low-lying roads in Southwest Beauregard Parish are flooded
  including Robert Clark Road. Flooding occurs on the south side of
  Niblett Bluff Park with access roads to camp houses cut off around
  the park. Access roads to the river in Northeastern Orange County
  become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 24.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding will
  occur.
* Impact...At stages near 23.0 feet...The river is at bankfull
  stage.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 9363 3011 9364 3011 9378 3031 9381
      3062 9378

$$

270601-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0097.170830T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/NSBT2.1.ER.170830T0600Z.170831T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier.
* from late Tuesday night until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 10:15 AM Saturday the stage was 3.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and
  continue to rise to near 4.6 feet by early Thursday morning.
  This forecast is based upon 72 hours of expected precipitation.
  Further rises based upon continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Water is about two feet over
  portions of Four Oaks Ranch Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9404 3008 9401 3008 9413 3033 9421

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

LAC019-270602-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OTBL1.1.FS.170826T1136Z.170829T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:00 AM Saturday the stage was 3.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to
  rise to near 5.0 feet by Tuesday morning. This forecast is based upon
  storm surge and 72 hours of expected precipitation. Further rises based upon
  continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Water over lowest portions of
  Goos Ferry Road. Cars should be moved to higher ground.
* Impact...At stages near 4.0 feet...Minor flooding of Goos Ferry
  Road will occur.
* Impact...At stages near 3.5 feet...Ponding of water on low spots
  along Goos Ferry Road will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 9314 3031 9303 3025 9308 3019 9321 3030 9329

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

LAC019-270601-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LCHL1.1.FS.170826T1637Z.170829T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 3.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue
  to rise to near 5.5 feet by Tuesday morning. This forecast is based upon
  storm surge and 72 hours of expected precipitation. Further rises based upon
  continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 6.0 feet...Significant flooding of
  numerous recreational camps and homes will occur. River Road and
  much of Mims Road are impassable.
* Impact...At stages near 5.5 feet...Access roads including River
  Road in North Lake Charles and Mims Road in Westlake become
  impassable to some vehicles.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...River Road in North Lake
  Charles and Mims Road in Westlake are flooded. Extensive marshland
  flooding will occur.
* Impact...At stages near 4.5 feet...Water covers portions of River
  Road in north Lake Charles.
* Impact...At stages near 4.0 feet...Minor marshland flooding
  occurs. Flooding also begins on River Road in north Lake Charles.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 9309 3029 9303 3014 9328 3017 9335 3035 9332

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1054 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Louisiana...

  West Fork Of The Calcasieu River At Sam Houston Jones State Park

LAC019-270554-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FL.W.0100.170829T1200Z-170830T1800Z/
/LCRL1.1.ER.170829T1200Z.170829T1200Z.170829T1800Z.NO/
1054 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the West Fork Of The Calcasieu River At Sam Houston Jones State
  Park.
* from Tuesday morning to Wednesday afternoon...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 10:00 AM Saturday the stage was 2.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
  Tuesday morning. This forecast is based upon 72 hours of expected
  precipitation. Further rises based upon continued rainfall are
  possible.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Low spots on South Perkins
  Ferry Road have water on it. Water is over some boat docks on South
  Perkins Ferry Road and over boat ramps at Sam Houston Jones State
  Park. Extensive marshland flooding will occur upstream and
  downstream from the park.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 9323 3028 9323 3028 9331 3030 9332 3032 9329

$$



Hurricane Local Statement

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 25
TXZ229>234-239>247-262345-

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX  AL092017
1035 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This product covers SOUTH TEXAS

**HARVEY REMAINS A WEAK CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Duval,
      and McMullen
    - The Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning have been
      cancelled and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
      Kleberg, Nueces, and San Patricio
    - The Hurricane Warning has been cancelled and a Tropical Storm
      Warning has been issued for Aransas, Bee, Calhoun, Jim Wells,
      Live Oak and Refugio


* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bee, Jim Wells,
      Kleberg, Live Oak, Nueces, and San Patricio
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Victoria
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Aransas, Calhoun, and Refugio
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Goliad

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 60 miles west-northwest of Port O`Connor TX
    - 28.9N 97.3W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 2 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Harvey remains a Category 1 hurricane over Goliad and
Victoria Counties where Hurricane Warning continues. Hurricane Warning
has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning for the coastal
counties of the Middle Texas coast, as well as the inland counties of
the Coastal Bend, and the coastal waters. Harvey will continue to move
slowly northwest today across South Texas and become a Tropical Storm.
Harvey will slow down and stall northwest of Cuero tonight and then
drift southeast back toward the coast Sunday through Tuesday.

Hurricane force wind gusts will continue to affect portions of Goliad
and Victoria counties, mainly through early this afternoon. Meanwhile,
tropical storm force winds will continue to impact portions of South
Texas generally east of Highway 281 for most of today.

Catastrophic life-threatening flooding is still expected due to the
heavy rainfall that is expected over the next several days. Storm
total rainfall accumulations will be as much as 20 to 30 inches of
rainfall with isolated 40 inches across eastern portions of South
Texas, mainly east of a line from Rockport to Goliad. West of that
area up to highway 16, generally 5 to 15 inches of rainfall will be
possible with isolated 20 inches possible. West of highway 16,
generally 5 inches or less of rainfall is expected.

Storm surge inundation will remain from 4 to 7 feet from Port Aransas
to Port Lavaca today. Flooding from storm surge inundation will
gradually subside through the day. South of Port Aransas, offshore
winds have provided a significant decrease in tide levels.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible along and to the east of a line
from Port Aransas to Beeville.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for the following areas:

  - Port Aransas
  - Aransas County
  - Refugio County
  - San Patricio County
  - Victoria County
  - Calhoun County

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads area, mainly east of Highway
281. Remain well guarded against life-threatening flood waters having
possible catastrophic impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

* SURGE:
Impacts from the surge event are now unfolding across the Middle Texas
coast between Port Aransas and Port Lavaca. Tide inundation levels will
continue to be from 4 to 7 feet AGL. Remain well away from
life-threatening surge having additional extensive impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads area, mainly east of Interstate
37. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across SOUTH TEXAS, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the
Victoria Crossroads. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across SOUTH TEXAS, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

RECOVERY PHASE - Do not return to evacuated areas until it is safe.
Listen for the all-clear signal from local authorities.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Corpus Christi TX around 1 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

89


sa tx

sat2

sa32s2afpc

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

   Atascosa River At Whitsett affecting Live Oak County
   Aransas River Near Skidmore affecting Bee County
   San Antonio River At Goliad affecting Calhoun...Goliad...Refugio and
   Victoria Counties
   Coleto Creek At Arnold Road Crossing affecting Goliad and Victoria
   Counties
   Coleto Creek At Highway 59, Victoria affecting Victoria County
   Guadalupe River At Victoria affecting Victoria County
   Guadalupe River Near Bloomington affecting Calhoun...Refugio and
   Victoria Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
   Mission River At Refugio affecting Refugio County

.Recent and anticipated rainfall over the area will bring the
aforementioned rivers above flood stage for the next few days.
These forecasts are based on 72 hours of forecast rainfall
over the area, and are subject to change with rainfall
forecasts. Also additional rainfall beyond 72 hours will
result in possibly even higher rises.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local TV and radio
stations, or cable TV outlets, for the latest weather
information, as additional rainfall could affect crest
forecasts.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our AHPS page at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=crp

&&

TXC175-469-270942-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FL.W.0021.170826T1701Z-170831T0503Z/
/SCDT2.3.ER.170826T1701Z.170828T1800Z.170830T1303Z.NO/
1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for the Coleto Creek At Arnold Road
Crossing.
* until Wednesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:45 AM Saturday, the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by this afternoon, and continue
  to rise to near 31.0 feet by early Monday afternoon. The river will
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.

&&

 Below are the latest river stages and stage forecasts:

                      FLD LATEST               FORECAST 6 AM LST
LOCATION              STG  STG  DAY  TIME   Sun  Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu

Coleto Creek
  Arnold Road Crossing 15  10.4 Sat 10 AM  29.5 30.2 25.8 15.3 10.1

&&

LAT...LON 2888 9729 2893 9721 2874 9710 2871 9722

$$


 

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

   Atascosa River At Whitsett affecting Live Oak County
   Aransas River Near Skidmore affecting Bee County
   San Antonio River At Goliad affecting Calhoun...Goliad...Refugio and
   Victoria Counties
   Coleto Creek At Arnold Road Crossing affecting Goliad and Victoria
   Counties
   Coleto Creek At Highway 59, Victoria affecting Victoria County
   Guadalupe River At Victoria affecting Victoria County
   Guadalupe River Near Bloomington affecting Calhoun...Refugio and
   Victoria Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
   Mission River At Refugio affecting Refugio County

.Recent and anticipated rainfall over the area will bring the
aforementioned rivers above flood stage for the next few days.
These forecasts are based on 72 hours of forecast rainfall
over the area, and are subject to change with rainfall
forecasts. Also additional rainfall beyond 72 hours will
result in possibly even higher rises.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local TV and radio
stations, or cable TV outlets, for the latest weather
information, as additional rainfall could affect crest
forecasts.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our AHPS page at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=crp

&&

TXC057-175-391-469-270942-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FL.W.0022.170828T1041Z-000000T0000Z/
/GLIT2.3.ER.170828T1041Z.170830T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for the San Antonio River At Goliad.
* from late Sunday night, until further notice, or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 9 AM Saturday, the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage late Sunday night, and continue to
  rise to near 39.6 feet by Wednesday morning.
* At 40.0 feet, major flooding occurs. Nearly all of Goliad State Park
  floods, except the headquarters area and mission, causing major
  damage to the park. Many secondary and primary roads and low bridges
  flood. The flow is within a few feet of the lowest residences in the
  south edge of Goliad and Highway 183. Hundreds of livestock are cut
  off, and can potentially drown in the flood plain below Falls City to
  the Guadalupe River confluence.

&&

 Below are the latest river stages and stage forecasts:

                      FLD LATEST               FORECAST 6 AM LST
LOCATION              STG  STG  DAY  TIME   Sun  Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu

San Antonio River
  Goliad               25  10.1 Sat 09 AM  17.4 25.7 36.6 39.6 38.0

&&

LAT...LON 2871 9772 2878 9762 2855 9690 2848 9692
      2863 9759

$$


 

Hurricane Warning

Harvey Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX  AL092017
1017 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

TXZ233-262330-
/O.CON.KCRP.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KCRP.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Goliad-
1017 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Goliad

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 50-65 mph with gusts to 80 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Sunday
          afternoon

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High
        - The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
        - Remain braced against the reasonable threat for hurricane
          force wind of 75 mph of equivalent Category 1 intensity.
        - To be safe, efforts should fully focus on protecting life.
          Properties remain subject to extensive wind impacts.
        - Now is the time to urgently hide from the wind. Failure to
          adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
          life. Remain sheltered until the hazardous wind subsides.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 18-24 inches, with
          locally higher amounts

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - Emergency considerations should include a threat of
          flooding.
        - Be safe and remain ready to protect against flooding rain
          impacts.
        - If flood related watches and warnings are in effect, heed
          recommended actions.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
          banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood
          control systems and barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
          with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - Emergency considerations should include a reasonable threat
          for tornadoes.
        - Be safe and remain ready to protect against tornado
          impacts. Stay informed.
        - Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
          approaches, quickly move to the safest place within your
          shelter.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
852 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Antonio River Near Elmendorf Affecting Bexar and Wilson Counties
  San Antonio River near Floresville Affecting Karnes and Wilson Counties
  San Antonio River Near near Falls City Affecting Karnes County
  San Antonio River at Hwy 72 nr Runge Affecting Goliad and Karnes Counties
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain for the next 72 hours. If actual rainfall varies
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary.

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC175-255-270751-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0028.170827T1415Z-000000T0000Z/
/SRRT2.3.ER.170827T1415Z.170830T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
852 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

 The flood warning continues for
  the San Antonio River at Hwy 72 nr Runge.
* At  8:15 AM Saturday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to
  rise to near 46.2 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* Imapct...At 39.0 feet...Water is well into the floodplain. No impacts to roads
  or structures. Cattle and farm equipment should have been removed from the
  floodplain or face the threat of being cut off lost.


&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Hwy 72 nr Runge    22   27   10.8   Sat 08 AM  24.9  39.9  45.5  46.0  42.7


&&

LAT...LON 2883 9779 2890 9772 2876 9764 2872 9770


$$



 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
621 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-271130-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
621 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas and the Middle
Texas Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible within rain bands from
Hurricane Harvey.

Hurricane warnings continue this morning for much of the area and
will likely be replaced by Tropical Storm warnings as they are
cancelled today.

Very heavy rainfall will continue today and tonight with 20 to 30
inches of rain possible with isolated 40 inch totals north of a
line from Rockport to Goliad.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Although Harvey will weaken, it is expected to meander near South
Texas over the next couple of days, resulting in a continuance of
heavy rainfall, flash flooding and strong winds. Harvey is
forecast to begin to moving away from South Texas early next
week, gradually bringing diminishing rainfall chances through the
rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated. Spotter safety is of highest
concern, but any information that can be relayed is appreciated.

$$


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
427 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...Life threatening flooding from excessive rainfall expected
across South Texas Today through the weekend...

.Heavy rains from Hurricane Harvey will continue across much of
South Texas through the weekend. Catastrophic and life
threatening flooding from excessive rainfall is expected as
Hurricane Harvey meanders slowly through the region through
Tuesday. A Flash Flood watch is now in effect through Tuesday
evening.

TXZ230>234-240>247-261730-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170830T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Duval-Jim Wells-Kleberg-
Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Calliham, Cross, Loma Alta, Tilden,
George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, Goliad, Victoria, Freer,
Benavides, San Diego, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville,
Corpus Christi, Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton,
Mathis, Rockport, Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
427 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of south Texas, including the following areas,
  Aransas, Bee, Calhoun, Duval, Goliad, Jim Wells, Kleberg, Live
  Oak, McMullen, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio, and Victoria.

* Through Tuesday evening

* Heavy rains from Harvey will impact much of South Texas late
  this week into the weekend. A prolonged heavy rain and flash
  flood threat may evolve over parts of the area. The heaviest
  rains are most likely to occur east of Interstate 37. Rainfall
  amounts of 20 to 30 inches are expected north and east of a
  line from Port Aransas to Goliad with isolated higher amounts
  possible. 10 to 20 inches of rain are likely south and west of
  this line to Hwy 281. Lower rainfall amounts will occur
  further to the west, but significant flooding will still be
  possible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$



Harvey

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.9N 97.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…35 KM W OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Texas coast has been replaced with a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

Hurricane warnings continue for inland areas near the center of
Harvey. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the
center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland near the core
of Harvey. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Lapenta

Pretty much a rainmaker.

Hurricane and Tropical Flags may not fly,   but copious winds and torrential downpours is a given.  So much for a monster cyclone.  Be wary of relaxing with potentials still possible.    As I stated last night,  current conditions may pare the remnants of Harvey.  Most likely to be absorbed in the  front.

two_atl_2d0 (19)

NOUS42 KNHC 191654
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1250 PM EDT SAT 19 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER…..17-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE — NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO — TEAL 76
A. 20/2100Z A. 20/2330Z,21/0530Z
B NOAA2 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 20/1900Z C. 20/2030Z
D. 14.7N 77.8W D. 14.9N 78.7W
E. 20/2030Z TO 21/0130Z E. 20/2300Z TO 21/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE — NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR — TEAL 74
A. 21/0900Z A. 21/1130Z
B NOAA2 0809A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0909A HARVEY
C. 21/0700Z C. 21/0745Z
D. 15.5N 81.5W D. 15.7N 82.4W
E. 21/0830Z TO 21/1330Z E. 21/1100Z TO 21/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY WHILE IT REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 21/1800Z INTO SYSTEM
NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 24.5N 72.0W.
3. REMARK: NOAA 42 P-3 MISSIONS TASKED FOR 19/1800Z AND 20/0600Z
IN TCPOD 17-079 HAVE BEEN CANCELED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK…..NEGATIVE.

fps77gus

usaaEdCharlotte513

two_atl_2d0 (20)

Still scattershot, best guess and doubt. 5×5.

graphicast_at_latest_sm3 (1)

A real mess there.  This field of contradictions.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)

Where is Harvey?

two_atl_5d0 (12)

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

...UPDATED TO PLACE TROPICAL WAVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends across the central Caribbean with axis 
extending from 19N72W to a 1008 mb surface low near 14N72W to 
11N73W. This system was previously T.S Harvey. Scattered moderate
convection has developed during the past few hours near the low 
center mainly from 12N-17N between 73W-77W. A fast westward 
motion is expected to continue with this system for the next 
couple of days as the wave moves along the southern periphery of 
the subtropical ridge.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N45W to 10N46W, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a large area of 
cloudiness but convection is limited in association with this 
wave due to Saharan dust intrusion. This system coincides with a 
well defined 700 mb trough, and a high amplitude northward bulge 
of moisture is noted on the TPW product.

A tropical wave was introduced to this map over the eastern 
Caribbean, after analyzing upper-air soundings across the islands
and model guidance. The wave's axis extends from 19N65W to 10N64W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the
northern portion of the wave mainly north of 16N between 62W-66W
affecting the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. 

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending 
from western Cuba along 84W to near 10N84W, moving west at 10-15 
kt. The wave shows up very well on the TPW animation and 700 mb 
streamline analysis. Energy from the wave has fractured to the 
northeast and is analyzed as a surface trough currently located
over the Florida Peninsula. The wave is enhancing showers near
Honduras, Belize and adjacent waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to a
1008 mb low near 13N20W to 11N41W. The Intertropical Convergence 
Zone extends from 11N51W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large and well defined upper-level low centered over the
southeast Gulf near 25N85W continues to generate scattered 
showers over the Florida Straits. The western half of the Gulf is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1016 mb 
high pressure centered near 29N90W. Isolated showers and light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of 90W. The upper-low will
drift westward reaching the central Gulf by Monday. This system 
will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf
waters today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. Moisture associated with these tropical
waves will continue to affect the area increasing the likelihood 
of showers and thunderstorms today. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades across the basin, with the strongest winds
remaining east of 70W. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes, and mountain upslope lifting 
will combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the island mainly during the afternoon 
and evening hours through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As previously mentioned, the northern part of the tropical wave 
currently moving across the western Caribbean is analyzed as a 
trough currently extending across southeast Florida. This trough 
is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 76W, and
will continue to move westward through the day. Another surface 
trough is analyzed northeast of the Leeward Islands extending from
25N65W to 20N65W. This trough continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms from 19N-25N between 61W-66W. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of 
this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of fresh to strong winds is
noted per scatterometer data on the northern side of this trough.
The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 32N39W. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds are also noted between the coast of Africa 
and the Madeira/Canary Islands. These winds are the result of the 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures 
over west Africa.


GULFIR172320915
The Central Pressure USA_06Z
Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected to combine with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. This will result in
heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees from 11AM til 7PM.
Exposure to these conditions will raise the likelihood of heat
related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Maximum heat index values near 105 degrees are possible in the
Delta region on Monday. Prolonged exposure to these temperatures
or strenuous outdoor activities could be dangerous.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

$$

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.


...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss




Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
202215-
/O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro,
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof,
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola,
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point,
Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko,
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage,
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson,
Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur,
Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst,
Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude,
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss,
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia,
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak
  afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those
  outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

images (25)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-211100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Daytime temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees will
combine with high humidity values today to produce heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in
effect until early this evening. In addition, a couple of isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially south of Interstate 20. No
severe weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Thunderstorms will remain possible each day through much of the
next week. Thunderstorms are expected areawide on Wednesday.

Heat index values will continue to range between 105 and 109
degrees across portions of the area through Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures and lower heat index values are expected after a cold
front moves across the area on Wednesday. Precautions should be
taken to prevent heat related injuries.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, skywarn networks, and amateur
radio operators is not anticipated through tonight.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Today for Southeast Oklahoma,
Northwest and North Central Louisiana, Southwest and South Central
Arkansas, and parts of East and Northeast Texas...

.The combination of high temperatures in the middle and upper
nineties along with high humidity will result in heat indices of
105 to 109 degrees from this afternoon through early this
evening.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-210000-
/O.CON.KSHV.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs,
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville,
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden,
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice,
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia,
Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, Zwolle,
Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, Montgomery,
Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, Olla, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Atlanta, Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City,
Jefferson, Longview, Marshall, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches,
Center, Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...High pressure aloft across the area will allow for
  temperatures to climb into the middle to upper nineties. These
  temperatures along with low level moisture will produce heat
  indices of 105 to 109 degrees.

* TIMING...Heat indices will be near 105 to 109 in the afternoon
  and early evening before lowering.

* IMPACT...Precautions should be taken to prevent heat related
  illnesses, including limiting outdoor work activities to the
  morning before temperatures rise and early evening after the
  readings lower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Take frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned
environments. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

Things to ponder – Harvey!

Last check Harvey has some issues. 1)  Max Sustained Winds  (40mph),  2) Minimum Central Pressure 1005mb (High),   Forward Speed 18mph (a tad fast).  Poorly developed and being twisted and churned on either side.   The 500mb is in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  The HIGH is weak at all levels.  NHC is not even certain about the strength, but tend to think.  NO.  Met. Larry Olson (Mike Scott….)

GULFIR172310115

 

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Microwave and conventional geostationary satellite images indicate
that Harvey’s center is still displaced to the east of a persistent
cluster of deep convection due to about 15 kt of northeasterly
shear. With no notable changes in the cyclone’s structure since
the last advisory, the maximum wind estimate remains 35 kt, which
is in line with the latest Dvorak CI numbers.

Recent microwave fixes suggest that Harvey’s center may have slowed
down or wobbled northward temporarily, and the 12-hour motion
estimate is a slightly slower 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a swift
westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours.
Once Harvey moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 72 hours,
it will reach the western edge of the ridge, and it will likely
slow down and gain some latitude due to a cut-off low over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although the track guidance envelope
has shifted slightly northward on this cycle, especially around the
72-hour period, there are no significant changes from six hours ago.

Northeasterly or northerly shear is forecast to continue for the
next 36 hours or so, which should prevent significant strengthening
while Harvey moves westward across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. By 48 hours, the vertical shear over the cyclone
drops drastically, but the system’s fast motion could still
limit the amount of intensification that will occur. The best
opportunity for strengthening would likely be around day 3 when
Harvey begins to slow down as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one during the first 48 hours, and it was nudged a little
lower at 72 hours to fall closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
(HCCA) model and the ICON intensity consensus. A lot of
uncertainty remains, however, since models like SHIPS and HWRF
bring Harvey near or to hurricane intensity before it reaches land
while the GFS and ECMWF continue to weaken the circulation while it
moves across the Caribbean Sea.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 13.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
120H 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT… 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 64.

 

Another Random Circulation.

A tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic is moving North.  It is expected to continue to develop but to do that away from  the United States.   So, for now, totally great.  It was another hot day here and still very warm. Currently the temperature is 75 with Relative Humidity 99% and winds are CALM.  And it is nearly 10PM.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-132030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 /221 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening. The area of concern is generally west of a
line from Springview to Rose to Broken Bow.

Wind damage and very large hail, 2 inches or larger in diameter,
are the primary hazards. An isolated tornado may form and this
would be most likely to occur late in the afternoon or early this
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Sunday and Sunday night holds a risk for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms across much of the area with the best
chances in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest
Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

Unsettled conditions continue Monday through Thursday with
thunderstorms forecast mainly in the afternoon and night.
However, the threat for strong or severe thunderstorms is
uncertain at this time.

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
NEC085-130730-
/O.NEW.KLBF.FF.W.0002.170813T0123Z-170813T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service North Platte NE
823 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Hayes County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 230 AM CDT Sunday

* At 822 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
  already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hayes Center and Hamlet.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 inch is possible in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 10133 4055 10079 4041 10078 4035 10078
      4035 10134

$$

CDC



Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NEC005-007-009-013-017-029-031-033-041-045-047-049-057-063-069-
075-085-087-091-101-103-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-145-149-157-
161-165-171-130500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0449.170812T2100Z-170813T0500Z/

NE
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARTHUR               BANNER              BLAINE
BOX BUTTE            BROWN               CHASE
CHERRY               CHEYENNE            CUSTER
DAWES                DAWSON              DEUEL
DUNDY                FRONTIER            GARDEN
GRANT                HAYES               HITCHCOCK
HOOKER               KEITH               KEYA PAHA
KIMBALL              LINCOLN             LOGAN
LOUP                 MCPHERSON           MORRILL
PERKINS              RED WILLOW          ROCK
SCOTTS BLUFF         SHERIDAN            SIOUX
THOMAS

images (6)

images (21)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
702 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through mid evening. Cloud to
ground lightning and heavy rain will accompany some of these storms.
A few storms could produce winds gusts over 50 mph.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage along and north
of Interstate 20 late evening, possibly forming into a complex or
two that would move east across North Texas. Locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding will be the main threats during the overnight
hours. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for parts of North and
Northeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday through Tuesday, mainly
north of a line from Comanche to Palestine. The better rain chances
will continue to be north of Interstate 20. Coverage of storms will
be isolated to scattered and severe weather is not expected.

Heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees will be common each
afternoon through next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested through 10 PM.
Timely reports of flash flooding are also appreciated.

$$



 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXC097-181-130245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-170813T0245Z/
Cooke TX-Grayson TX-
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COOKE AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Callisburg, or
near Whitesboro, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 65 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Denison, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood,
Eisenhower State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

If on or near Lake Texoma, get off of from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683
      3387 9680 3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9666
      3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9654
      3359 9658 3366 9708 3382 9705 3386 9706
      3384 9705 3389 9698 3395 9699 3394 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 273DEG 18KT 3374 9694

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...65MPH

$$

24-Bain



 

Severe Weather Statement

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXC097-181-130245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-170813T0245Z/
Cooke TX-Grayson TX-
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COOKE AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Callisburg, or
near Whitesboro, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 65 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Denison, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood,
Eisenhower State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

If on or near Lake Texoma, get off of from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683
      3387 9680 3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9666
      3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9654
      3359 9658 3366 9708 3382 9705 3386 9706
      3384 9705 3389 9698 3395 9699 3394 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 273DEG 18KT 3374 9694

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...65MPH

$$

24-Bain



 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
835 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXZ092-093-130200-
Grayson TX-Cooke TX-
835 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COOKE AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 835 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Callisburg, or 9 miles northwest of Whitesboro, moving east at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood, Eisenhower
State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9658
      3359 9659 3365 9711 3372 9711 3374 9709
      3380 9709 3382 9705 3384 9706 3384 9703
      3389 9689 3385 9686 3387 9683 3387 9679
      3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 269DEG 22KT 3374 9702

$$

24-Bain



 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...Flash Flood Watch in effect this evening and overnight for
parts of North and Northeast Texas....

TXZ092>095-105>107-130730-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.A.0005.170813T0000Z-170813T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-
Including the cities of Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham,
Paris, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, and Sulphur Springs
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of north central Texas and northeast Texas, including
  the following areas, in north central Texas, Cooke, Fannin,
  Grayson, and Hunt. In northeast Texas, Delta, Hopkins, and
  Lamar.

* Through Sunday morning

* Numerous thunderstorms are expected to affect areas near the
  Red River overnight. Localized rainfall totals over 3 inches
  are possible in the Watch area which may lead to flash
  flooding.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued for
your area.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
426 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-130230-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
426 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lingering monsoon moisture will lead to scattered showers and
thundertorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Some local
areas could see heavy rain lead to flash flooding, and this will
be the main concern. Small hail and gusty winds are also possible
with stronger cells.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Expect typical monsoon weather conditions Sunday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm threats will include
lightning, heavy rain, and small hail. Drier air will bring
decreasing thunderstorm activity Monday, with little to no chance
of storms Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

$$


 

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
654 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130445-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FA.Y.0055.170813T0154Z-170813T0445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
654 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 945 PM MST

* At 650 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
  large area of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall over central
  Yavapai county. This will cause many instances of minor flooding
  in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Chino Valley, Prescott Valley, Prescott, Dewey-humboldt, Skull
  Valley, Williamson Valley, Iron Springs and White Spar Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper
than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough
to sweep vehicles off the road. When encountering flooded roads, make
the smart choice: turn around, don`t drown.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 11223 3448 11222 3451 11241 3444 11284
      3467 11270 3483 11247

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
647 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-170813T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
647 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 640 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
moderate to heavy rainfall had moved back into the warning area.
About a half inch of additional rainfall in expected in the West
Clear Creek drainage, located east of Camp Verde and near Bullpen
Ranch. Therefore, the Flash Flood Warning will continue.

River gages on West Clear Creek near the Bullpen Swimming area
reported about a rise of about a foot. Other smaller creeks and
washes in the region may experience higher rises.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bullpen Swimming Area and Clear Creek Campgrounds.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Walker Creek...
Long Canyon...Verde River and West Clear Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 11157 3453 11157 3452 11167 3452 11171
      3451 11173 3451 11183 3452 11181 3453 11176
      3459 11171 3461 11164

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
636 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170813T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
636 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 630 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that
heavy rainfall was moving quickly east of the Rimrock, Lake
Montezuma, McGuireville and Camp Verde areas. Light rain was still
occurring in the warning location.

River gages on Beaver Creek reported a 4 foot rise at 625 PM MST.
Additional rises are likely as runoff moves into the basin.

Spotters are reporting anywhere from 1 t 4 inches of rain.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Camp Verde, Montezuma Castle National Monument, Middle Verde,
Mcguireville and Lake Montezuma.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Beaver Creek...
Cherry Creek...Russell Wash...Dry Beaver Creek...Oak Creek...West
Clear Creek...Grief Hill Wash...Verde River and Gaddis Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 11178 3464 11175 3458 11178 3454 11184
      3458 11197 3469 11194

$$

 

images (19)

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
247 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR ZONES 640, 642,
643, 644, AND 645...

.A trough of low pressure will cross the area, generating
scattered thunderstorms across the higher elevations through this
evening.

ORZ640-642>645-WAZ643-645-130600-
/O.CON.KPDT.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170813T0600Z/
Central Mountains of Oregon-
Southern Blue and Strawberry Mountains-
Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon-Central Blue Mountains-
Wallowa District-Blue Mountains of Washington-Asotin County-
247 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...3.

* PRECIPITATION...A tenth to a quarter of an inch.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

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