A few weeks ago we were basking in relative calm. Even those systems would steer away into the Central Atlantic. Those in the area of the Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico. But something was afoot, I sensed a problem when the system slowed and gathered moisture and dumped tons of rain.
This was the perfect storm. Harvey began to ramp up. I referenced this slowing and the dangers, in so many words. I did not expect what happened. It was NOT climate change. It was an anomaly and weather is about changes. It’s highs and lows, tightening pressure gradients and a myriad of other things.
As a consequence of what had happened, thousands were displaced and hungry, exposed and afraid. Let’s not criticise people who are doing the best they can.
Going forward, there are new challenges and new storm systems. This evening here in North Carolina, we are experiencing lower clouds before the rain. There is a quasi-stationary front (warm sector) which will keep the temperatures rather uniform, with overnight lows 68-70.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 448 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010930- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake- Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson- Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 448 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible along and south of southward drifting cold front Friday afternoon and into Friday night. There is a good chance for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing tornadoes as well as damaging wind gusts. In addition, locally heavy rain is expected which may lead to flash flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1101 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ALZ011>015-017>050-011915- Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee- Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega- Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa- Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon- Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour- 1101 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the National Weather Service office in Birmingham. .DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight. The remnants of Harvey will approach Alabama and is expected to bring a threat for brief tornadoes to the forecast area. The threat could continue until 10 PM. The best chance for brief tornadoes should generally be along and northwest of a line from Selma to Clanton to Wedowee, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out farther south and east. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed through tonight. $$
Wind Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Birmingham AL 249 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ...Gusty Winds Possible Across North Central Alabama... ALZ011>015-017>020-024-026-011100- /O.NEW.KBMX.WI.Y.0007.170831T1949Z-170901T2100Z/ Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun- Cherokee-Jefferson-St. Clair- Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette, Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, Birmingham, Hoover, Pell City, and Moody 249 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 4 PM CDT Friday. * TIMING...will continue through Friday afternoon. * WINDS...will be between 15 and 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * IMPACTS...of the strong winds may break small limbs and cause hazardous driving conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$
Tornado Watch
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 476 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017 TORNADO WATCH 476 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ALC007-009-021-033-043-047-057-059-063-065-073-075-077-079-083- 091-093-103-105-107-117-119-125-127-133-010100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0476.170831T1615Z-170901T0100Z/ AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON COLBERT CULLMAN DALLAS FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MARENGO MARION MORGAN PERRY PICKENS SHELBY SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
| Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport | 16:53 | Overcast | 81 | 71 | 72 | SE 10 | 29.83 |
| Anniston Metro Airport | 16:53 | Mostly Cloudy | 84 | 71 | 65 | SE 9 G 20 | 29.88 |
| Atlanta, Hartsfield – Jackson Atlanta International Airport | 16:52 | Partly Cloudy | 82 | 67 | 60 | SE 5 | 29.96 |
| Auburn-Opelika Airport | 16:56 | Mostly Cloudy | 82 | 73 | 74 | S 15 G 21 | 29.94 |
| Nashville, Nashville International Airport | 16:53 | Overcast | 77 | 73 | 88 | NE 9 | 29.87 |
| Alabaster, Shelby County Airport | 16:53 | Mostly Cloudy | 84 | 72 | 67 | S 17 G 23 | 29.82 |
| Huntsville, Huntsville International / Jones Field | 16:53 | Overcast | 82 | 74 | 77 | SE 13 G 24 | 29.81 |
| Jackson, Jackson International Airport | 16:54 | Light Rain Fog/Mist | 74 | 72 | 94 | SW 15 G 26 | 29.75 |
| Memphis International Airport | 16:54 | Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy | 69 | 66 | 90 | NE 28 G 44 | 29.67 |
| Montgomery, Dannelly Field | 16:53 | Partly Cloudy | 88 | 72 | 59 | S 10 G 22 | 29.86 |
| Tuscaloosa Regional Airport | 16:53 | Fair | 83 | 76 | 79 | S 13 G 24 | 29. |
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 317 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 .SHORT TERM... The post-tropical center of Harvey is now analyzed south of Tunica, MS. A synoptic scale warm front was located via surface pressure field analysis from the surface low center east to just south of Tupelo, MS. Across the state of Mississippi, surface winds generally shift across this front but as this feature extends into Alabama, it is primarily defined by a pressure trough with little in the way of a wind shift or change in the thermodynamic environment. Sounding data along with upper air guidance suggests drier air aloft is present in greater magnitude to the east and the north while profiles are more moist to the south and the west. Rotating storms remain likely across our south-central, southwest and western counties with a limited tornado risk. While conditions had become somewhat calmer in the short- term, additional development across our south and west counties continue to be monitored closely. Tornadoes remain possible as we remain in the synoptically favored right front quadrant of a former tropical cyclone. Breaks in cloud cover continue across our eastern, southeast and south-central counties and solar insolation continues to result in surface heating that is increasing instability values. Wind shear is most prominent off the surface at this time, supporting broad storm rotation. Wind shear values will increase across our western and northwest counties for the remainder of this afternoon and evening as the remnants of Harvey move into western Tennessee. Radar imagery indicates storms that we are closely watching in Pickens, Perry and Marengo Counties with more activity to the southwest. Our southwest and west-central counties continue to have the greatest potential for rotating storms and possible tornadoes. JH/05 .LONG TERM... Rain chances will drop significantly for Friday as much drier air aloft moves into the region around the southern periphery of Harvey`s remnant low. The weekend looks dry for most if not all of our forecast area with the arrival of northwesterly flow. The next chance of rain may not come until Tuesday as southerly flow develops in advance of an approaching upper-level trough. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Band one has exited the TAF window to the east and now watching band 2 begin to work in from the west. Looks to move into TCL at or just past 18Z and then work into EET and BHM by 20 to 21Z and then sliding northeastward after that. There should be a line that moves through MGM and TOI as well, but they may not see the amount of activity as the northern sites. As the center of the remnants of Harvey moves northeast, we will see low clouds and showers overnight at the northern sites along with the main low itself. Note: Have put in AMD NOT SKED for KASN TAF since winds are missing from the observation and will be a factor in the forecast today and tonight. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... High rain chances are expected through tonight with tropical moisture in place. A drying trend will follow for Friday and the weekend. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 80 60 81 60 / 90 50 20 10 10 Anniston 70 82 63 83 62 / 90 40 20 10 10 Birmingham 70 82 64 83 64 / 90 30 20 10 10 Tuscaloosa 70 84 66 86 64 / 90 20 10 10 0 Calera 70 82 65 85 65 / 90 20 10 10 10 Auburn 71 84 66 84 65 / 70 30 20 10 10 Montgomery 73 88 67 88 67 / 70 20 10 10 10 Troy 72 87 68 87 66 / 40 20 10 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for the following counties: Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Etowah...Fayette...Jefferson... Lamar...Marion...St. Clair...Walker...Winston. &&
Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017
Areas affected…Parts of eastern Mississippi into western Alabama
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 311531Z – 311730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Some increase in the risk for generally isolated and
relatively short-lived tornadoes may occur through midday and early
afternoon. It is not yet certain that a watch will be needed, but
trends are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION…East of the remnant circulation center of Harvey,
tropical boundary layer moisture (mid 70s+ F surface dew points)
remains present in a narrow corridor roughly centered near the
Mississippi/Alabama state border area. Breaks in cloud cover across
this region have allowed for some insolation and destabilization, as
a broken band of convection pivots across the region. Coinciding
with a broad belt of 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, which is
contributing to sizable low-level hodographs where near surface flow
remains southeasterly (mainly ahead of the broken band of
convection), at least some risk for brief tornadoes remains evident.
However, the extent of this threat remains unclear, and will
probably hinge on whether rain cooled air now present across much of
central and southern Alabama can modify appreciably. Currently this
seems unlikely, but a couple of corridors of substantive further
boundary layer destabilization seem at least possible. One of these
may extend north and east of Biloxi MS into southwestern Alabama
(near/north of Mobile). The other may develop near Tuscaloosa
northwestward into areas near/east of Tupelo and Columbus MS.
..Kerr/Grams.. 08/31/2017
…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BMX…HUN…MOB…MEG…JAN…LIX…
LAT…LON 30618883 31698838 33188861 33878880 34578878 34878820
33188731 32508771 31978792 31188782 30448833 30368885
30618883
================================================================
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and western Alabama
Northeast Mississippi
Southwest Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1115 AM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include…
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY…Arcing bands of showers and storms will pose a risk for
brief tornadoes this afternoon into early evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
either side of a line from 60 miles north of Oxford MS to 55 miles
southeast of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 20030.
Floyd, Times Are Changin 