Nothing to see here!!

The tropical system that braved Africa and the Atlantic Basin is now awash with a few thunderstorms and not much else.  This was a no-brainer.  At the outset you had barely a disturbance and the 20% was a stretch.   I do like the more expansive descriptions and degrees of separation.  It is very impotant to understand that and an inter-active discussion yields a more informed public.

 

As forecasted here,  I saw very little justification.  Out!

The Valley,  Elmira area of NY State.  The area has not seen this kind od flooding, some 40 years ago.   Route 17 (Highway)  has been closed.   Bridges and other structures will need major repairs.

A drier regime will inch it’s way into the Valley and all the way to near Buffalo.  This drie air will continue to punch its way into most of NY/PA.

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service State College PA
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017


PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-291000-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-170729T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford,
McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following
  areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cumberland, Dauphin,
  Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon,
  Mifflin, Perry, Somerset, and York.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* Heavy rainfall of two to three inches with local amounts of over
  four inches is possible, especially in higher terrain. Areas
  that received the heavy rainfall last weekend are most
  susceptible to flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Review flood safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/flood.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE…Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

Flash Flood Watch.

Some storms could contain gusty winds and small hail this afternoon
and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

asa

web1_DP-06052016-heroes-banners-2

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
327 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
 A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas east and south of a
line from Killeen to Denton to Sulphur Springs through 8 pm this
evening.

There is a small chance of thunderstorms late today and tonight,
mainly northeast of a Breckenridge to Dallas to Canton line. Gusty
downburst winds, brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be
the primary hazards. Most locations will remain rain-free through
tonight, however.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday. However, it
will remain hot, especially across Central Texas where temperatures
will reach or exceed 100 degrees, and some areas will experience heat
index values in excess of 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory will be in
effect for much of Central Texas on Saturday afternoon.

Low thunderstorm chances will linger across the region Saturday and
for areas mainly west of I-35 Saturday night through Tuesday. All of
North and Central Texas will see increasing thunderstorm chances by
the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$


 

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
232 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...Heat Advisory remains in effect late today east and south of a
Killeen to Denton to Sulphur Springs line through 8 pm, then
continues Saturday afternoon east and south of a Killeen to Glen
Rose to Terrell/Canton line on Saturday afternoon...

TXZ103>105-107-117>120-123-131-133-134-290100-
/O.CON.KFWD.HT.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170729T0100Z/
Denton-Collin-Hunt-Hopkins-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Rains-
Hood-Johnson-Ellis-
Including the cities of Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville,
Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville,
Commerce, Sulphur Springs, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth,
Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point,
Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie,
Ennis, and Midlothian
232 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures from 95 to 102 degrees.

* HEAT INDEX...105 to 110 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Individuals and pets outdoors during peak heating
  without adequate shade and/or water may succumb to heat
  exhaustion or heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to check on persons with health problems and the
elderly...as they are the most susceptible to heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Never leave young children or pets in an enclosed
vehicle...even for a short time...as temperatures can quickly
rise to life threatening levels.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside.  When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

uau11

alledgenix

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
556 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-291200-
Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Northern Wasatch Front-
Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys-Southern Wasatch Front-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Wasatch Mountain Valleys-
Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-
Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-
Western Uinta Basin-Castle Country-San Rafael Swell-
Sanpete/Sevier Valleys-West Central Utah-Southwest Utah-
Utahs Dixie and Zion National Park-South Central Utah-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Central Mountains-
Southern Mountains-Southwest Wyoming-
556 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of
Utah and southwest Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Moisture will maintain a threat for showers and thunderstorms
across the outlook area. These storms will be most numerous over
the higher terrain, as well as across southern and eastern Utah.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A gradual drying trend is expected across the north over the
weekend into early next week, while moisture remains in place
across the south, maintaining a threat for showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall through at least
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

$$

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential road travel impacts visit...
http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
443 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

UTC017-025-037-290100-
/O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-170729T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Garfield UT-San Juan UT-Kane UT-
443 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUAN AND EASTERN KANE
COUNTIES...

At 438 PM MDT, Rainfall continues across the southern border of the
flash flood warning. However, the majority of the precipitation has
moved out of the area.  Radar rainfall estimates across the majority
of this are includes around an inch, with selected areas of 2+
inches of precipitation.

This area is highly flash flood prone, and is traveled by hikers,
canyoneers, and campers in the Coyote Gulch area and other slot
canyons along the Hole In The Rock Road.

Flash flooding is expected to continue until the evening hours.
Depending on further thunderstorm development, flooding may continue
into the night time hours.

Please use prudent judgement when traveling through this area until
the morning hours of Saturday.

kajogp11

Excessive Heat Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
227 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

CAZ080>083-ORZ023>028-290930-
/O.NEW.KMFR.EH.A.0001.170731T1800Z-170804T0300Z/
Western Siskiyou County-Central Siskiyou County-
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Central Douglas County-Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-
Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Etna, Fort Jones, Yreka, Weed,
Mount Shasta, Dunsmuir, Mccloud, Roseburg, Sutherlin, Green,
Myrtle Creek, Canyonville, Glendale, Grants Pass, Cave Junction,
Steamboat, Toketee Falls, Medford, Ashland, Union Creek,
Howard Prairie, and Siskiyou Summit
227 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued an Excessive
Heat Watch...which is in effect from Monday morning through
Thursday evening.

* Valley Temperatures: Daily high temperatures of 100 to 110
  degrees, with overnight lows of 65 to 75 degrees.

* Mountain Temperatures: Daily high temperatures of 95 to 100
  degrees, with overnight lows of 70 to 75 degrees.

* Locations include: Most of Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, and
  Siskiyou counties, including Medford, Roseburg, Grants Pass,
  Montague, Mount Shasta City, and the Cascades.

* Impacts: Very high temperatures and limited relief overnight
  will increase chances for heat related illness, especially for
  sensitive groups and people without access to air conditioning.
  Heat stress is possible for livestock and outdoor pets. Also,
  area rivers still run cold and fast, increasing the risk for
  hypothermia and water rescues.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* An Excessive Heat Watch means that a prolonged period of hot
  temperatures is expected.

* These hot temperatures are likely to create a DANGEROUS
  SITUATION in which heat illnesses are possible.

* Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, and
  stay out of the sun.

123456mlbe

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-290500-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
900 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop across the
area into the afternoon. Greatest coverage of this activity is
expected toward Brevard County and the Treasure Coast into mid to
late afternoon, where sea and lake breeze boundary collisions are
favored. A few stronger storms will be possible, producing
frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph
and locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. Storm motion will be
toward the east around 10 to 15 mph.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Hot temperatures with highs in the mid 90s and high humidity
today will again create a dangerous situation in which heat
illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-
conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives
and neighbors.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered storms will develop this afternoon, moving
eastward around 10 to 15 knots across inland lakes and offshore,
especially from the Cape southward from mid to late afternoon. Any
storms that develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts
in excess of 34 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Drier air and lack of an east coast sea breeze will keep
thunderstorm coverage below normal Saturday. Increasing moisture
ahead of an approaching frontal trough will then lead to
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms Sunday
afternoon into early next week. The main threats from storms will
be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

usaaveterans

Weather. Spring-like today!

http://doubledownweather.weebly.com/

Here is some of the best weather forecasting for the World of Outlaws, just click on the link, Mike Scott is my airname.

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Arctic Oscillation has a profound affect upon our weather  as cold air rushes out of Canada and Alaska,  Mountainous area tend to dry these systems out.

In the negative phases of AO, colder weather can subside into the SE US.  The trouble happens (ice and snow) when a Miller-B climate pattern exists.  Warm overruning, warm air going over the cold air and falls through that airmass,   Mid-latitude storms (Lows and troughs) spin that ‘

The Miller-B Climate Pattern induces cyclogenesis (Low Pressue Area)  Ex:  Cape Hatteras.  Italy has the same set-up,  pushing warm maritime moisture over the colder air.   Alaska’s temperatures are a precursor,  for what we see across the Tennessee Valley and into the southeast USA.

Picture

    Pocatello,  ID.
Wind: N 6 MPHRH: 84%DewPt: 7 °F  More Details (KPIH)     XML View
Event:Winter Weather Advisory
Alert:…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON… * IMPACTS/TIMING…SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SLICK ROADS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. *

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE. * LOCATIONS…MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. INCLUDING IDAHO FALLS…BLACKFOOT…REXBURG…POCATELLO AND SODA SPRINGS.

Instructions:A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Target Area:Caribou Highlands
Lower Snake River Plain
Upper Snake Highlands
Upper Snake River Plain

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URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 925 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 NYZ007-008-301700- /O.EXT.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151230T1700Z/

JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WATERTOWN…LOWVILLE 925 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 …FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY… * LOCATIONS…JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES…ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS. * TIMING…THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS…A GLAZE OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. *

IMPACTS…OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ANY UNTREATED OR ELEVATED SURFACES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING…WHICH CAN MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFFECTED AREAS…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD…PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT…BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

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Floyd Parton was a SMSgt in the Air Force’s ‘Air Weather Service’.   He also served at Hickam AB, HI in the Solar Observations and then retired and worked with the Treasury Department in Kentucky.

It has been around two years since Floyd passed due to complications of ALS (Lou Gehrig’s Disease).  This illness has been known to occur at higher rates amongst the military community.   


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For More detailed weather go to the fourth page in the dropdown menu of the upper right corner of this.
Forecast: 

Cloudy skies with light rains will be experienced over the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will be experienced over metro manila and the rest of Luzon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms will prevail over Visayas and Mindanao.

Moderate to strong winds coming from the northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast with slight to moderate seas.

Maulap na kalangitan na may mahinang pag-ulan ang mararanasan sa mga rehiyon ng Ilocos, Cordillera at Cagayan. Bahagyang maulap hanggang sa maulap na kalangitan na may pulu-pulong mahinang mga pag-ulan ang mararanasan sa Metro Manila at nalalabing bahagi ng Luzon. Bahagyang maulap hanggang sa maulap na papawirin na may pulu-pulong mga pag-ulan o pagkidlat-pagkulog ang iiral sa Kabisayaan at Mindanao.

Katamtaman hanggang sa malakas na hangin mula sa hilagang-silangan ang iiral sa Hilagang Luzon at ang mga baybaying dagat nito ay magiging katamtaman hanggang sa maalon. Sa ibang dako, ang hangin ay magiging mahina hanggang sa katamtaman mula sa hilagang-silangan na may banayad hanggang sa katamtamang pag-alon ng karagatan.



DECEMBER 2015 

RPMM: 290600 

AREA SYNOPSIS AND 24-HOUR SHIPPING FORECAST

BEGINNING: 291200 

SYNOPSIS:
Issued at: 5:00 PM today, 30 December 2015
Valid Beginning: 5:00 PM today until 5:00 PM tomorrow

Synopsis:

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms will be experienced over Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. Cloudy skies with light rains will prevail over Cagayan Valley and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will be experienced over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms will prevail over the rest of the country.

Moderate to strong winds coming from the northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast with slight to moderate seas.

TERMINAL AREA FORECASTS (TAF)


​TAF RPLL

301100Z  3012/3118  09010KT 9999 FEW025 SCT100 TX31/3106Z TN23/3021Z TEMPO 3012/3018  08005KT FEW023 TEMPO 3018/3023 VRB02KT TEMPO 3101/3107  04011KT FEW025 BKN100=

TAF RPVM

301100Z 3012/3112  07008KT 9999 FEW020  TX31/3106Z TN21/3022Z TEMPO 3012/3018  04005KT FEW020 SCT080=

TAF RPLB
301100Z 3012/3112  07008KT 9999 FEW020  TX31/3106Z TN21/3022Z TEMPO 3012/3018  04005KT FEW020 SCT080=

TAF RPLC
301100Z 3012/3112  05006KT 9999  FEW020  BKN300  TX30/3106Z TN21/3021Z TEMPO 3012/3018  29008KT FEW020 SCT100 BKN300=


TAF RPLI

301100Z 3012/3112  04012KT  9999  FEW019 SCT100  TEMPO  3012/3018  04008KT FEW019 BKN100 TEMPO 3103/3109 04014G24KT=

TAF RPVP
301100Z 3012/3112  09008KT 9999  FEW019  SCT250 TEMPO 3015/3021  29006KT  FEW017CB SCT019 SCT250=

TAF RPVD
301100Z 3012/3112  02010KT 9999  FEW018 SCT220   TEMPO 3012/3018  36004KT FEW015CB SCT017 SCT080=


TAF RPMR

301100Z 3012/3112  04005KT 9999 FEW018  SCT080 TEMPO 3012/3018  02002KT  FEW018 BKN080=



TAF RPMD

301100Z 3012/3112  34006KT 9999  FEW016  SCT290  TEMPO 3012/3018  02007KT FEW016   SCT090=

TAF RPMZ
301100Z  3012/3112  04004KT 9999  FEW018  BKN300 TEMPO 3012/3018  00000KT FEW017CB  SCT018 BKN300=

Northern Luzon

RAINFALL WARNING 
 
NATION CAPITAL REGION


ADVISORYCommunity AWARENESS
FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low-lying areas
and near river channels ALERT
Community PREPAREDNESS
FLOODING is THREATHENING in low-lying areas
and near river channels EMERGENCY
Community RESPONSE
SEVERE FLOODING is EXPECTED
Take necessary precautionaryAL c measures
02x