Cat on the table

Weather. Spring-like today!

http://doubledownweather.weebly.com/

Here is some of the best weather forecasting for the World of Outlaws, just click on the link, Mike Scott is my airname.

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Arctic Oscillation has a profound affect upon our weather  as cold air rushes out of Canada and Alaska,  Mountainous area tend to dry these systems out.

In the negative phases of AO, colder weather can subside into the SE US.  The trouble happens (ice and snow) when a Miller-B climate pattern exists.  Warm overruning, warm air going over the cold air and falls through that airmass,   Mid-latitude storms (Lows and troughs) spin that ‘

The Miller-B Climate Pattern induces cyclogenesis (Low Pressue Area)  Ex:  Cape Hatteras.  Italy has the same set-up,  pushing warm maritime moisture over the colder air.   Alaska’s temperatures are a precursor,  for what we see across the Tennessee Valley and into the southeast USA.

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    Pocatello,  ID.
Wind: N 6 MPHRH: 84%DewPt: 7 °F  More Details (KPIH)     XML View
Event:Winter Weather Advisory
Alert:…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON… * IMPACTS/TIMING…SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SLICK ROADS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. *

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE. * LOCATIONS…MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 15. INCLUDING IDAHO FALLS…BLACKFOOT…REXBURG…POCATELLO AND SODA SPRINGS.

Instructions:A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Target Area:Caribou Highlands
Lower Snake River Plain
Upper Snake Highlands
Upper Snake River Plain

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URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 925 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 NYZ007-008-301700- /O.EXT.KBUF.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-151230T1700Z/

JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WATERTOWN…LOWVILLE 925 AM EST WED DEC 30 2015 …FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY… * LOCATIONS…JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES…ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS. * TIMING…THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS…A GLAZE OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. *

IMPACTS…OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ANY UNTREATED OR ELEVATED SURFACES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING…WHICH CAN MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. USE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN ICING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFFECTED AREAS…BUT NOT ENOUGH TO DISRUPT TRAVEL OR DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES. INSTEAD…PATCHES OF ICE WILL CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WALKING AND DRIVING COULD THEREFORE BE DIFFICULT…BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

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Floyd Parton was a SMSgt in the Air Force’s ‘Air Weather Service’.   He also served at Hickam AB, HI in the Solar Observations and then retired and worked with the Treasury Department in Kentucky.

It has been around two years since Floyd passed due to complications of ALS (Lou Gehrig’s Disease).  This illness has been known to occur at higher rates amongst the military community.   


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For More detailed weather go to the fourth page in the dropdown menu of the upper right corner of this.
Forecast: 

Cloudy skies with light rains will be experienced over the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will be experienced over metro manila and the rest of Luzon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms will prevail over Visayas and Mindanao.

Moderate to strong winds coming from the northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast with slight to moderate seas.

Maulap na kalangitan na may mahinang pag-ulan ang mararanasan sa mga rehiyon ng Ilocos, Cordillera at Cagayan. Bahagyang maulap hanggang sa maulap na kalangitan na may pulu-pulong mahinang mga pag-ulan ang mararanasan sa Metro Manila at nalalabing bahagi ng Luzon. Bahagyang maulap hanggang sa maulap na papawirin na may pulu-pulong mga pag-ulan o pagkidlat-pagkulog ang iiral sa Kabisayaan at Mindanao.

Katamtaman hanggang sa malakas na hangin mula sa hilagang-silangan ang iiral sa Hilagang Luzon at ang mga baybaying dagat nito ay magiging katamtaman hanggang sa maalon. Sa ibang dako, ang hangin ay magiging mahina hanggang sa katamtaman mula sa hilagang-silangan na may banayad hanggang sa katamtamang pag-alon ng karagatan.



DECEMBER 2015 

RPMM: 290600 

AREA SYNOPSIS AND 24-HOUR SHIPPING FORECAST

BEGINNING: 291200 

SYNOPSIS:
Issued at: 5:00 PM today, 30 December 2015
Valid Beginning: 5:00 PM today until 5:00 PM tomorrow

Synopsis:

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon.

FORECAST:

Cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and isolated thunderstorms will be experienced over Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. Cloudy skies with light rains will prevail over Cagayan Valley and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains will be experienced over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms will prevail over the rest of the country.

Moderate to strong winds coming from the northeast will prevail over Northern Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate blowing from the northeast with slight to moderate seas.

TERMINAL AREA FORECASTS (TAF)


​TAF RPLL

301100Z  3012/3118  09010KT 9999 FEW025 SCT100 TX31/3106Z TN23/3021Z TEMPO 3012/3018  08005KT FEW023 TEMPO 3018/3023 VRB02KT TEMPO 3101/3107  04011KT FEW025 BKN100=

TAF RPVM

301100Z 3012/3112  07008KT 9999 FEW020  TX31/3106Z TN21/3022Z TEMPO 3012/3018  04005KT FEW020 SCT080=

TAF RPLB
301100Z 3012/3112  07008KT 9999 FEW020  TX31/3106Z TN21/3022Z TEMPO 3012/3018  04005KT FEW020 SCT080=

TAF RPLC
301100Z 3012/3112  05006KT 9999  FEW020  BKN300  TX30/3106Z TN21/3021Z TEMPO 3012/3018  29008KT FEW020 SCT100 BKN300=


TAF RPLI

301100Z 3012/3112  04012KT  9999  FEW019 SCT100  TEMPO  3012/3018  04008KT FEW019 BKN100 TEMPO 3103/3109 04014G24KT=

TAF RPVP
301100Z 3012/3112  09008KT 9999  FEW019  SCT250 TEMPO 3015/3021  29006KT  FEW017CB SCT019 SCT250=

TAF RPVD
301100Z 3012/3112  02010KT 9999  FEW018 SCT220   TEMPO 3012/3018  36004KT FEW015CB SCT017 SCT080=


TAF RPMR

301100Z 3012/3112  04005KT 9999 FEW018  SCT080 TEMPO 3012/3018  02002KT  FEW018 BKN080=



TAF RPMD

301100Z 3012/3112  34006KT 9999  FEW016  SCT290  TEMPO 3012/3018  02007KT FEW016   SCT090=

TAF RPMZ
301100Z  3012/3112  04004KT 9999  FEW018  BKN300 TEMPO 3012/3018  00000KT FEW017CB  SCT018 BKN300=

Northern Luzon

RAINFALL WARNING 
 
NATION CAPITAL REGION


ADVISORYCommunity AWARENESS
FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low-lying areas
and near river channels ALERT
Community PREPAREDNESS
FLOODING is THREATHENING in low-lying areas
and near river channels EMERGENCY
Community RESPONSE
SEVERE FLOODING is EXPECTED
Take necessary precautionaryAL c measures
02x

Weather Forensics: The Science of Weather Observing. Not playing the game.

I am often amused at the Man-made Global Warming Entourage and that includes the king of nitwits,   Bill Nye,  the political scientist.   One of my reasons for leaving the service was some leaders insistence in toying with Atmospheric Physics and putting innocent lives at stake.

Two things I often observe is what I call the ‘Picnic Forecast’.    TV stations will fudge  solid Meteorological reasoning for appeasing weekend  picnickers.    The problem is that your credibility gets shot in the foot and your claims to caring about your listeners goes out the window.

A Trof of colder air is moving southward being aided by a 120kt jet stream that is bringing temperatures as much as 30-50 degrees Fahrenheit below normal.   On it’s own cold dry air does not permit for snow or precipitation of any kind.    So cold air is just part of the equation.   The NWS in Raleigh has a conundrum.   Do they alert the area near Greensboro out to Raleigh and Cary or do they insist that the Low that may provide the moisture and bring that moist warmer air to the area?

Cold air is denser than warm so as the winds turn to the south at the surface.   This warmer air will ride up and over the denser shallow colder air to the north.    You often hear this setup referred to as an Arctic Clipper,   Polar Vortex,  Middle Level Cyclone in the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation Pattern.   During the last winter Olympics in Canada we had just that setup.   Cold air that was expected there was basically here in the southern part of the nation.    The Miller B Climate Model spins up Low Pressure in association with slow moving frontal boundaries.   They acquire moisture in the Cape Hatter area (Cape Hatteras Low) and pushes that moisture over the colder air.  The corollary in Italy is the Genoa Low while we can see that with weather that happens in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Timing is everything but I watch the trends.     In the NWS long range forecast they left out the forecast for Monday and Tuesday and today they called it ‘precipitation’.   And it is that,   but the last few systems were designated as rain with little reservation.    I wouldn’t be surprised to have the forecast discussion talk about sensible weather.    I laugh at that because I could imagine weather being unreasonable.    Oh the audacity of a petulant Low Pressure Area and the unmitigated gall to do one or the other thing.

The atmosphere is a chaotic admix of competing properties.   In this case,  cold polar air funneling down toward us and the dryness associated with that and the potential moisture that could invariably make the weekend cold and windy but also with the possibility of some kind of frozen weather event.

The bottom line is that weather is not only a kind of 3-D Physics Party sans the glasses but is also skewed in the diagonal as well.    It is a living,  breathing brane world on planet Earth.    With all this going on it is easy to see how miscalculations can happen but at least be consistent and stop worrying whether Mary Ann or Ginger is going to have a picnic,   especially with chill factors making your freezer seem like the tropics!

Bottom line is to watch that Low over Louisiana,  which at this time has a sparse signature on weather maps but then again,  so did Florida on Monday and they got one inch of rain.    This could be a huge weather maker for Central and West Central NC from Wake Forest to Greensboro/Burlington.   Stayed tuned for the wet and wacky adventures of Jack Frost and Frosty the Snowman and we will see about that 3-degree guarantee.   lol

I’ve been a Meteorologist for all around the world and for over 30 years.   I am the go to guy for weather at race tracks across America,  Canada,  New Zealand and Australia.