Wx – Weather, Feb, 6th, 2016

Weather today

 

 

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Weather Forensics: The Science of Weather Observing. Not playing the game.

I am often amused at the Man-made Global Warming Entourage and that includes the king of nitwits,   Bill Nye,  the political scientist.   One of my reasons for leaving the service was some leaders insistence in toying with Atmospheric Physics and putting innocent lives at stake.

Two things I often observe is what I call the ‘Picnic Forecast’.    TV stations will fudge  solid Meteorological reasoning for appeasing weekend  picnickers.    The problem is that your credibility gets shot in the foot and your claims to caring about your listeners goes out the window.

A Trof of colder air is moving southward being aided by a 120kt jet stream that is bringing temperatures as much as 30-50 degrees Fahrenheit below normal.   On it’s own cold dry air does not permit for snow or precipitation of any kind.    So cold air is just part of the equation.   The NWS in Raleigh has a conundrum.   Do they alert the area near Greensboro out to Raleigh and Cary or do they insist that the Low that may provide the moisture and bring that moist warmer air to the area?

Cold air is denser than warm so as the winds turn to the south at the surface.   This warmer air will ride up and over the denser shallow colder air to the north.    You often hear this setup referred to as an Arctic Clipper,   Polar Vortex,  Middle Level Cyclone in the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation Pattern.   During the last winter Olympics in Canada we had just that setup.   Cold air that was expected there was basically here in the southern part of the nation.    The Miller B Climate Model spins up Low Pressure in association with slow moving frontal boundaries.   They acquire moisture in the Cape Hatter area (Cape Hatteras Low) and pushes that moisture over the colder air.  The corollary in Italy is the Genoa Low while we can see that with weather that happens in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Timing is everything but I watch the trends.     In the NWS long range forecast they left out the forecast for Monday and Tuesday and today they called it ‘precipitation’.   And it is that,   but the last few systems were designated as rain with little reservation.    I wouldn’t be surprised to have the forecast discussion talk about sensible weather.    I laugh at that because I could imagine weather being unreasonable.    Oh the audacity of a petulant Low Pressure Area and the unmitigated gall to do one or the other thing.

The atmosphere is a chaotic admix of competing properties.   In this case,  cold polar air funneling down toward us and the dryness associated with that and the potential moisture that could invariably make the weekend cold and windy but also with the possibility of some kind of frozen weather event.

The bottom line is that weather is not only a kind of 3-D Physics Party sans the glasses but is also skewed in the diagonal as well.    It is a living,  breathing brane world on planet Earth.    With all this going on it is easy to see how miscalculations can happen but at least be consistent and stop worrying whether Mary Ann or Ginger is going to have a picnic,   especially with chill factors making your freezer seem like the tropics!

Bottom line is to watch that Low over Louisiana,  which at this time has a sparse signature on weather maps but then again,  so did Florida on Monday and they got one inch of rain.    This could be a huge weather maker for Central and West Central NC from Wake Forest to Greensboro/Burlington.   Stayed tuned for the wet and wacky adventures of Jack Frost and Frosty the Snowman and we will see about that 3-degree guarantee.   lol

I’ve been a Meteorologist for all around the world and for over 30 years.   I am the go to guy for weather at race tracks across America,  Canada,  New Zealand and Australia.