Weather Report 3/1/2014

Here is North Carolina the skies are generally fair at this hour for the Piedmont (Greensboro-Winston-Salem).    Radar indicates some precipitation near W-S but as this area approaches our area expect perhaps freezing rain and perhaps a mixture.    Any precipitation will be minimal because a relative lack of moisture (50%),   Weakening Low Pressure and Adiabatic drying on the Leeside of the mountains west of W-S.

What looked to be a very vigorous Low over the Missouri is now hardly a disturbance although surface observations reveal a low circulation.  It is possible that a trof may develop but without significant moisture moving in it is doubtful.   The weekend over Central NC should be pretty nice with a few significant wind gusts and chill factors making outside activities brisk and cold.

Currently our Temperatures are just below freezing at 31 degrees F.

The next system will find it’s way into our area by Monday sometime but because winds will be warmer the humidity will increase and with FROPA (Frontal Passage) there may be enough upward vertical motion to induce some precipitation.   Rain chances of 60% might be overstating the precipital water of this Airmass.    So this forecast has a lot of uncertainty and the MOS Computer Model is a little higher on precip at 80% and usually matters.  At East Bay Raceway Park in Tampa showed moisture moving in from the south but there was no rain and the Daytona Beach Radar indicated clear skies.

The next day was uneventful because the airmass was cold and dry.  The day before the best I can figure was a temperature inversion caused subrefraction which caused a false echo.  This is best illustrated with the MARFA front in Texas commonly a dry line.

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gl%29/guides/mtr/fcst/sfc/dfrnt.rxml

Continental US (NHEM) Sector Infrared

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92f.gif

Will watch that area as it moves into the area around 10am Eastern Time on Saturday.  Let the games begin.

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