Another Random Circulation.

A tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic is moving North.  It is expected to continue to develop but to do that away from  the United States.   So, for now, totally great.  It was another hot day here and still very warm. Currently the temperature is 75 with Relative Humidity 99% and winds are CALM.  And it is nearly 10PM.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-132030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 /221 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening. The area of concern is generally west of a
line from Springview to Rose to Broken Bow.

Wind damage and very large hail, 2 inches or larger in diameter,
are the primary hazards. An isolated tornado may form and this
would be most likely to occur late in the afternoon or early this
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Sunday and Sunday night holds a risk for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms across much of the area with the best
chances in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest
Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

Unsettled conditions continue Monday through Thursday with
thunderstorms forecast mainly in the afternoon and night.
However, the threat for strong or severe thunderstorms is
uncertain at this time.

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
NEC085-130730-
/O.NEW.KLBF.FF.W.0002.170813T0123Z-170813T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service North Platte NE
823 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Hayes County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 230 AM CDT Sunday

* At 822 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
  already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hayes Center and Hamlet.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 inch is possible in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 10133 4055 10079 4041 10078 4035 10078
      4035 10134

$$

CDC



Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NEC005-007-009-013-017-029-031-033-041-045-047-049-057-063-069-
075-085-087-091-101-103-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-145-149-157-
161-165-171-130500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0449.170812T2100Z-170813T0500Z/

NE
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARTHUR               BANNER              BLAINE
BOX BUTTE            BROWN               CHASE
CHERRY               CHEYENNE            CUSTER
DAWES                DAWSON              DEUEL
DUNDY                FRONTIER            GARDEN
GRANT                HAYES               HITCHCOCK
HOOKER               KEITH               KEYA PAHA
KIMBALL              LINCOLN             LOGAN
LOUP                 MCPHERSON           MORRILL
PERKINS              RED WILLOW          ROCK
SCOTTS BLUFF         SHERIDAN            SIOUX
THOMAS

images (6)

images (21)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
702 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through mid evening. Cloud to
ground lightning and heavy rain will accompany some of these storms.
A few storms could produce winds gusts over 50 mph.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage along and north
of Interstate 20 late evening, possibly forming into a complex or
two that would move east across North Texas. Locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding will be the main threats during the overnight
hours. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for parts of North and
Northeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday through Tuesday, mainly
north of a line from Comanche to Palestine. The better rain chances
will continue to be north of Interstate 20. Coverage of storms will
be isolated to scattered and severe weather is not expected.

Heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees will be common each
afternoon through next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested through 10 PM.
Timely reports of flash flooding are also appreciated.

$$



 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXC097-181-130245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-170813T0245Z/
Cooke TX-Grayson TX-
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COOKE AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Callisburg, or
near Whitesboro, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 65 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Denison, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood,
Eisenhower State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

If on or near Lake Texoma, get off of from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683
      3387 9680 3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9666
      3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9654
      3359 9658 3366 9708 3382 9705 3386 9706
      3384 9705 3389 9698 3395 9699 3394 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 273DEG 18KT 3374 9694

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...65MPH

$$

24-Bain



 

Severe Weather Statement

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXC097-181-130245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-170813T0245Z/
Cooke TX-Grayson TX-
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COOKE AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Callisburg, or
near Whitesboro, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 65 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Denison, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood,
Eisenhower State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

If on or near Lake Texoma, get off of from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683
      3387 9680 3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9666
      3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9654
      3359 9658 3366 9708 3382 9705 3386 9706
      3384 9705 3389 9698 3395 9699 3394 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 273DEG 18KT 3374 9694

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...65MPH

$$

24-Bain



 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
835 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXZ092-093-130200-
Grayson TX-Cooke TX-
835 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COOKE AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 835 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Callisburg, or 9 miles northwest of Whitesboro, moving east at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood, Eisenhower
State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9658
      3359 9659 3365 9711 3372 9711 3374 9709
      3380 9709 3382 9705 3384 9706 3384 9703
      3389 9689 3385 9686 3387 9683 3387 9679
      3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 269DEG 22KT 3374 9702

$$

24-Bain



 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...Flash Flood Watch in effect this evening and overnight for
parts of North and Northeast Texas....

TXZ092>095-105>107-130730-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.A.0005.170813T0000Z-170813T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-
Including the cities of Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham,
Paris, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, and Sulphur Springs
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of north central Texas and northeast Texas, including
  the following areas, in north central Texas, Cooke, Fannin,
  Grayson, and Hunt. In northeast Texas, Delta, Hopkins, and
  Lamar.

* Through Sunday morning

* Numerous thunderstorms are expected to affect areas near the
  Red River overnight. Localized rainfall totals over 3 inches
  are possible in the Watch area which may lead to flash
  flooding.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued for
your area.

images (22)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
426 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-130230-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
426 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lingering monsoon moisture will lead to scattered showers and
thundertorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Some local
areas could see heavy rain lead to flash flooding, and this will
be the main concern. Small hail and gusty winds are also possible
with stronger cells.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Expect typical monsoon weather conditions Sunday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm threats will include
lightning, heavy rain, and small hail. Drier air will bring
decreasing thunderstorm activity Monday, with little to no chance
of storms Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

$$


 

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
654 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130445-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FA.Y.0055.170813T0154Z-170813T0445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
654 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 945 PM MST

* At 650 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
  large area of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall over central
  Yavapai county. This will cause many instances of minor flooding
  in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Chino Valley, Prescott Valley, Prescott, Dewey-humboldt, Skull
  Valley, Williamson Valley, Iron Springs and White Spar Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper
than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough
to sweep vehicles off the road. When encountering flooded roads, make
the smart choice: turn around, don`t drown.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 11223 3448 11222 3451 11241 3444 11284
      3467 11270 3483 11247

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
647 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-170813T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
647 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 640 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
moderate to heavy rainfall had moved back into the warning area.
About a half inch of additional rainfall in expected in the West
Clear Creek drainage, located east of Camp Verde and near Bullpen
Ranch. Therefore, the Flash Flood Warning will continue.

River gages on West Clear Creek near the Bullpen Swimming area
reported about a rise of about a foot. Other smaller creeks and
washes in the region may experience higher rises.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bullpen Swimming Area and Clear Creek Campgrounds.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Walker Creek...
Long Canyon...Verde River and West Clear Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 11157 3453 11157 3452 11167 3452 11171
      3451 11173 3451 11183 3452 11181 3453 11176
      3459 11171 3461 11164

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
636 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170813T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
636 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 630 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that
heavy rainfall was moving quickly east of the Rimrock, Lake
Montezuma, McGuireville and Camp Verde areas. Light rain was still
occurring in the warning location.

River gages on Beaver Creek reported a 4 foot rise at 625 PM MST.
Additional rises are likely as runoff moves into the basin.

Spotters are reporting anywhere from 1 t 4 inches of rain.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Camp Verde, Montezuma Castle National Monument, Middle Verde,
Mcguireville and Lake Montezuma.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Beaver Creek...
Cherry Creek...Russell Wash...Dry Beaver Creek...Oak Creek...West
Clear Creek...Grief Hill Wash...Verde River and Gaddis Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 11178 3464 11175 3458 11178 3454 11184
      3458 11197 3469 11194

$$

 

images (19)

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
247 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR ZONES 640, 642,
643, 644, AND 645...

.A trough of low pressure will cross the area, generating
scattered thunderstorms across the higher elevations through this
evening.

ORZ640-642>645-WAZ643-645-130600-
/O.CON.KPDT.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170813T0600Z/
Central Mountains of Oregon-
Southern Blue and Strawberry Mountains-
Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon-Central Blue Mountains-
Wallowa District-Blue Mountains of Washington-Asotin County-
247 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...3.

* PRECIPITATION...A tenth to a quarter of an inch.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

images (7)


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Last Night, I couldn’t too….

Sleep?  Nah,  not sleep.  More like downed trees and a very long outage.  Got hot with Lows about 75 or so.

 

 

So now the power is on and the skies are partly cloudy.  That fair weather may be our undoing.   With high RH and plenty of lift that HAS triggered Thunderstorms.  The ones on the Leeside of course, will experience some weakening.

Even now, some of these showers are increasing with some severe.  Hope for no outages for Garden Variety weather.

Image result for free clipart Severe Thunderstormsweathrimage12.jpg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
655 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE…Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Saturday through Thursday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
ahead of a cold front approaching from the north Saturday afternoon
and evening. Isolated storms could become severe, with a primary
threat of damaging winds

As we approach 9 and 10PM,  it appears the line is increasing across the SE USA.

Near North Central,  North Carolina is widely spred.  The more active are the mountain areas in Western,  North Carolina.

Our Temp right now is 82

Meteorologist Mike Scott,                                                                                                             Larry Olson, Meteorologist

World of Outlaws, World Racing Group                                                                                               Charlotte, NC.

The Abandoned "White Hall" at Chanute Air Force base in Rantoul, IL.

The Abandoned “White Hall” at Chanute Air Force base in Rantoul, IL.

FAX

Weather Forensics: The Science of Weather Observing. Not playing the game.

I am often amused at the Man-made Global Warming Entourage and that includes the king of nitwits,   Bill Nye,  the political scientist.   One of my reasons for leaving the service was some leaders insistence in toying with Atmospheric Physics and putting innocent lives at stake.

Two things I often observe is what I call the ‘Picnic Forecast’.    TV stations will fudge  solid Meteorological reasoning for appeasing weekend  picnickers.    The problem is that your credibility gets shot in the foot and your claims to caring about your listeners goes out the window.

A Trof of colder air is moving southward being aided by a 120kt jet stream that is bringing temperatures as much as 30-50 degrees Fahrenheit below normal.   On it’s own cold dry air does not permit for snow or precipitation of any kind.    So cold air is just part of the equation.   The NWS in Raleigh has a conundrum.   Do they alert the area near Greensboro out to Raleigh and Cary or do they insist that the Low that may provide the moisture and bring that moist warmer air to the area?

Cold air is denser than warm so as the winds turn to the south at the surface.   This warmer air will ride up and over the denser shallow colder air to the north.    You often hear this setup referred to as an Arctic Clipper,   Polar Vortex,  Middle Level Cyclone in the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation Pattern.   During the last winter Olympics in Canada we had just that setup.   Cold air that was expected there was basically here in the southern part of the nation.    The Miller B Climate Model spins up Low Pressure in association with slow moving frontal boundaries.   They acquire moisture in the Cape Hatter area (Cape Hatteras Low) and pushes that moisture over the colder air.  The corollary in Italy is the Genoa Low while we can see that with weather that happens in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Timing is everything but I watch the trends.     In the NWS long range forecast they left out the forecast for Monday and Tuesday and today they called it ‘precipitation’.   And it is that,   but the last few systems were designated as rain with little reservation.    I wouldn’t be surprised to have the forecast discussion talk about sensible weather.    I laugh at that because I could imagine weather being unreasonable.    Oh the audacity of a petulant Low Pressure Area and the unmitigated gall to do one or the other thing.

The atmosphere is a chaotic admix of competing properties.   In this case,  cold polar air funneling down toward us and the dryness associated with that and the potential moisture that could invariably make the weekend cold and windy but also with the possibility of some kind of frozen weather event.

The bottom line is that weather is not only a kind of 3-D Physics Party sans the glasses but is also skewed in the diagonal as well.    It is a living,  breathing brane world on planet Earth.    With all this going on it is easy to see how miscalculations can happen but at least be consistent and stop worrying whether Mary Ann or Ginger is going to have a picnic,   especially with chill factors making your freezer seem like the tropics!

Bottom line is to watch that Low over Louisiana,  which at this time has a sparse signature on weather maps but then again,  so did Florida on Monday and they got one inch of rain.    This could be a huge weather maker for Central and West Central NC from Wake Forest to Greensboro/Burlington.   Stayed tuned for the wet and wacky adventures of Jack Frost and Frosty the Snowman and we will see about that 3-degree guarantee.   lol

I’ve been a Meteorologist for all around the world and for over 30 years.   I am the go to guy for weather at race tracks across America,  Canada,  New Zealand and Australia.

Before Kindle. Airline Bestsellers.

Eastern-Airlines-CoverB47O53jCYAASApA.jpg-large

Above right was our actual crew on flight 666.

I used to remember the long boring flights across the pond and across parts of the U.S.   Airline periodicals (some of those do not exist – Allegheny Airlines, e.g.) were really intense.   Reading copious amounts of airline propaganda and smelling the sweet ambiance of restrooms,  was always a highlight.

I remember when the back two rows were not the only coach seats and where DC -9s and 727s hauled most of the freight.  Still I did  ride a pond jumper into Memphis,  complete lightning strikes,  hail and wind sheer.  The best part of those flights was probably the propeller engines grinding to a stop and the jerking noise made as the wheels grazed the runway and the nose came gliding down.

Also those stewardesses (mostly at the time) won awesome little hats,  serving Gingerale,  stale peanuts and movie reviews on an aircraft with no headsets but plenty of antiquated gas masks.   Still, it wasn’t all bad.  Gone are the days when security personnel didn’t molest octogenarians and three year olds.    A time in which OJs biggest hurdles were football players and suitcases.

But back to that reading fare.   Back then no one was telling you that there will extra charges for additional luggage and one butt bought one seat.    I keep forgetting the reading part.   Anyhow,  before LOL and ROFL we had old magazines that must have been out of date,  even for a doctor’s office.   Periodicals which FDR’s third term and how one day air travel might actually transport people across the country and even the world.

In day when a non-stop flight was done along with crop dusting and mail deliveries.   Could you imagine what they must have read back then?  Or the stewardess (mostly) saying, “oh crap’ had a totally different meaning.   So if you see hieroglyphics and the Original 10-15 Commandments consider yourself lucky.  It could have been worse,  you might have had to watch ‘Annie Hall’ and her polymorphous sexual expressions.   Still trying to find those.   That Woody!!!!

Woodymzl.nodwrhil

Weather Report 3/1/2014

Here is North Carolina the skies are generally fair at this hour for the Piedmont (Greensboro-Winston-Salem).    Radar indicates some precipitation near W-S but as this area approaches our area expect perhaps freezing rain and perhaps a mixture.    Any precipitation will be minimal because a relative lack of moisture (50%),   Weakening Low Pressure and Adiabatic drying on the Leeside of the mountains west of W-S.

What looked to be a very vigorous Low over the Missouri is now hardly a disturbance although surface observations reveal a low circulation.  It is possible that a trof may develop but without significant moisture moving in it is doubtful.   The weekend over Central NC should be pretty nice with a few significant wind gusts and chill factors making outside activities brisk and cold.

Currently our Temperatures are just below freezing at 31 degrees F.

The next system will find it’s way into our area by Monday sometime but because winds will be warmer the humidity will increase and with FROPA (Frontal Passage) there may be enough upward vertical motion to induce some precipitation.   Rain chances of 60% might be overstating the precipital water of this Airmass.    So this forecast has a lot of uncertainty and the MOS Computer Model is a little higher on precip at 80% and usually matters.  At East Bay Raceway Park in Tampa showed moisture moving in from the south but there was no rain and the Daytona Beach Radar indicated clear skies.

The next day was uneventful because the airmass was cold and dry.  The day before the best I can figure was a temperature inversion caused subrefraction which caused a false echo.  This is best illustrated with the MARFA front in Texas commonly a dry line.

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gl%29/guides/mtr/fcst/sfc/dfrnt.rxml

Continental US (NHEM) Sector Infrared

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92f.gif

Will watch that area as it moves into the area around 10am Eastern Time on Saturday.  Let the games begin.

Life, Love and the Devil.

In 1970s there was a song written by Terry Jacks and sung by the Poppys.    It went something like this,  “Evil Grows in the dark where the sun it never shines,  evil grows in cracks and holes and lives in people’s minds”.

In my mind one of the scariest scenes in any movie,  was in the Exorcist and not for all the obvious vulgar things but a more subtle scene at the start of the movie.   Where the Priest is in the Middle East and where the music,  the chaos and more specifically the Dogs Fighting.   Evil v. Evil.

It is in those cracks and holes and scary dark places,  the imagination can run amok as the incessant hammering in the old town and blind sages suggesting something truly unhuman.

I remember as a young child jumping off the teeter-totter and the guy on the end bounced like that ball in the cartoons where you sing a long with silly songs.    Was that an act of evil or me playing the game and testing it’s limits?   Was this part of my Dad’s favorite pastime of wrecking me on my little red wagon or dumping me on the sled.   A habit that has in part made me hyper-anxious and mistrusting.

For me the darkness was a kind of shield where I could go unnoticed or maybe it was caused by being molested in a storm cellar in Texas by an older boy.    Maybe it was a grim reminder of some kind of attention even one I had no idea of that time.

I loved watching the snow at night and where there is little or no snow,  rain or wind.    Waiting for school to be closed and not having done my homework.     My kind of passive-aggressive Russian-roulette.    I also like walking in it,  I was virtually alone and safe.   Like maybe the cold prevented THE antagonist from inflicting more pain and sadness.

I was also a sentinel guarding the gates against sudden fury.    Like a life-size chess game I planned several moves ahead and this usually gave me the upper-hand.   In a grocery store I still feel trapped and almost feral.    I feel as if I can detect evil just by looking at a person.     So if I see that kind visible clue in the store I am more inclined to try and flee as soon as possible.

The thunder and the rain also is a weapon of mine.    The sounds of violence and the washing away of tears.   Those tears like Teflon let the fears ease as they run into the gutter.   The sun impinges upon that sanctuary like heavy steps they are first heard and then felt.

Fear like Poppy seeds float to find  a new home and  like Pollywogs in a muddy ditch they hide.   So too,  I hid.  The hot Texas sun and my friends in a segregated neighborhood marched in harmony while wild-eyed monsters with seething hate got to the front of the bus.

Evil cannot manifest itself in the seemingly sublime while underneath the dark moist rock were hiding earth worms and Rolly Pollys in eggshells.   A blue day sunwise can be quite a sight and when people talk about how wonderful it is,   I wonder.

To me a mean person is an icicle falling off a house and then that person reveling in it’s mayhem.   Kind of like that dude on Oz who plays Mayhem in the insurance commercials.    A mean person is even meaner who rapes the soul of innocence and the sharper of the knives are the ones who hold hostage.   Maybe my intense aversion to kidnappers are a reaction to my Mom’s pain.   Like the time in Florida she hid in my garage from my own father.

This is why to me you can not judge the sky by it’s color or love by ‘I love Yous’.

Weather Saturday AM – Jan 4, 2013 –

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/ussatsfc_loopb.html

This image displays watches, warnings, statements and advisories issued by the National Weather Service

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/radsfcus_exp_test.html

The East Coast has had it’s fun with heavy snow and windy conditions and now a short-lived High Pressure Area but that same time we have colder air pushing southward,  but that will be short-lived.   Here in the Raleigh and Greensboro the weather will be cold but relatively dry.   As the High moves off winds will switch around to the South and Southwest,    bringing warmer and moister air to the Greensboro area

Our current temperature    16,   Winds – CALM and RH is already 90%.    It appears as the winds have switched now.    Coldest night of the season so far.      We are subject Mid-latitude Lows called Cyclones by some.   Those systems are what motivates the airmasses to act out.   And if there is moisture you have the makings of a problem.    The extent of the problems in winter depend a few different factors as even terrestrial (hills, valleys,  water source)  all coalesce to bring us snow, freezing rain or even rain and drizzle.

The low clouds you see on a given day can be very near to the ground.    We have a term called ‘Woxof’.    This means the ceiling and visibility and are zero,   meaning it is hard to see.  As the airmass becomes more stable,  the clouds lower.   This cloud type is more typical with high humidity as the airmass is pretty much saturated.

All those highs and lows on the current surface chart indicate a very complex and stormy weather pattern until that leaves.   Generally the frontal boundaries are multi-layered meaning the skies would generally clear faster at the surface and is angled back to the High Side of the front.

…MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST…

A MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH A SURFACE LOW
SPINNING UP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC
OUTBREAK PLUNGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND.  FOR DETAILS ON THE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS…REFER TO THE
HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION/QPFHSD…FOR DETAILS ON THE EXTREME
COLD…REFER TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION/PMDEPD…AND FOR
DETAILS ON THE MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE…REFER TO
THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION/PMDHMD.

INITIALLY…LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT PLUNGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND…ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAK.  BY SUNDAY…A
VIGOROUS PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
DEEP VORTEX CARVING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW WHILE IT TRACKS OUT OF ARKANSAS…THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES…AND INTO EASTERN CANADA.  THE COMBINATION OF GULF
MOISTURE…AND EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS…WILL
PRODUCE A WIDE SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LOW TRACK.

AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM…MOISTURE GETTING LIFTED INTO THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD FUEL INCREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC…AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST.  BY MONDAY…A
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SHOULD BRING SOME HEAVIER AND MORE
ORGANIZED…OVERRUNNING…PRECIPITATION INTO NEW ENGLAND.  BEHIND
THE SYSTEM…LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE
GREAT LAKES.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SLIGHT VARIATIONS WITH EXACT SURFACE LOW
TRACK/STRENGTH …WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON
LOCATION/AMOUNTS OF THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS.  FOR NOW…THE WPC
FORECAST RELIED ON THE REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS/CMC.

The above is the forecast reasoning (why they expect snow for example or rain).

latest goes east hurricane sector water vapor image

Satellite photos are depictive of clouds types and naturally high overcasts make it difficult to see lower clouds and we can overlay radar images to see just what the clouds mean.    I will explain some other tools we use to determine the specific forecast called the Terminal Area Forecast (TAF).   Snow is probably harder to forecast than even Hurricanes and perhaps Tornadoes.  To be exact where it is going to snow or rain and the boundary of such areas.

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Sun 00Z

Timing is everything and the big issue for the Eastern US is when does the High get off the coast and the next front get in.   All along the frontal boundary and ahead of these boundaries are where the weather occur.    This is a weekend forecast.