Tropical Unrest.

A few weeks ago we were basking in relative calm.   Even those systems would steer away into the Central Atlantic.  Those in the area of the Yucatan Peninsula and into Mexico.   But something was afoot,   I sensed a problem when the system slowed and gathered moisture and dumped tons of rain.

This was the perfect storm.   Harvey began to ramp up.  I referenced this slowing and the dangers, in so many words.   I did not expect what happened.   It was NOT climate change.   It was an anomaly and weather is about changes.  It’s highs and lows, tightening  pressure gradients and a myriad of other things.

As a consequence of what had happened, thousands were displaced and hungry,  exposed and afraid.  Let’s not criticise people who are doing the best they can.

Going forward,  there are new challenges and new storm systems.  This evening here in North Carolina, we are experiencing lower  clouds before the rain.    There is a quasi-stationary front (warm sector) which will keep the temperatures rather uniform, with overnight lows 68-70.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
448 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
448 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible along and south of southward
drifting cold front Friday afternoon and into Friday night. There is
a good chance for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing
tornadoes as well as damaging wind gusts. In addition, locally heavy
rain is expected which may lead to flash flooding, especially in poor
drainage areas.

US (5)

southmissvly_loop

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1101 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-011915-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1101 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

The remnants of Harvey will approach Alabama and is expected to
bring a threat for brief tornadoes to the forecast area. The threat
could continue until 10 PM. The best chance for brief tornadoes
should generally be along and northwest of a line from Selma to
Clanton to Wedowee, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
farther south and east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through tonight.

$$



 

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
249 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...Gusty Winds Possible Across North Central Alabama...

ALZ011>015-017>020-024-026-011100-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WI.Y.0007.170831T1949Z-170901T2100Z/
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-
Cherokee-Jefferson-St. Clair-
Including the cities of Hamilton, Sulligent, Vernon, Fayette,
Double Springs, Jasper, Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre,
Birmingham, Hoover, Pell City, and Moody
249 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 4 PM CDT Friday.

* TIMING...will continue through Friday afternoon.

* WINDS...will be between 15 and 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...of the strong winds may break small limbs and cause
  hazardous driving conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 35 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for
high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$



 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

TORNADO WATCH 476 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ALC007-009-021-033-043-047-057-059-063-065-073-075-077-079-083-
091-093-103-105-107-117-119-125-127-133-010100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0476.170831T1615Z-170901T0100Z/

AL
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BIBB                 BLOUNT              CHILTON
COLBERT              CULLMAN             DALLAS
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            GREENE
HALE                 JEFFERSON           LAMAR
LAUDERDALE           LAWRENCE            LIMESTONE
MARENGO              MARION              MORGAN
PERRY                PICKENS             SHELBY
SUMTER               TUSCALOOSA          WALKER
WINSTON

Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport 16:53 Overcast 81 71 72 SE 10 29.83
Anniston Metro Airport 16:53 Mostly Cloudy 84 71 65 SE 9 G 20 29.88
Atlanta, Hartsfield – Jackson Atlanta International Airport 16:52 Partly Cloudy 82 67 60 SE 5 29.96
Auburn-Opelika Airport 16:56 Mostly Cloudy 82 73 74 S 15 G 21 29.94
Nashville, Nashville International Airport 16:53 Overcast 77 73 88 NE 9 29.87
Alabaster, Shelby County Airport 16:53 Mostly Cloudy 84 72 67 S 17 G 23 29.82
Huntsville, Huntsville International / Jones Field 16:53 Overcast 82 74 77 SE 13 G 24 29.81
Jackson, Jackson International Airport 16:54 Light Rain Fog/Mist 74 72 94 SW 15 G 26 29.75
Memphis International Airport 16:54 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy 69 66 90 NE 28 G 44 29.67
Montgomery, Dannelly Field 16:53 Partly Cloudy 88 72 59 S 10 G 22 29.86
Tuscaloosa Regional Airport 16:53 Fair 83 76 79 S 13 G 24 29.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
317 PM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...

The post-tropical center of Harvey is now analyzed south of Tunica,
MS. A synoptic scale warm front was located via surface pressure
field analysis from the surface low center east to just south of
Tupelo, MS. Across the state of Mississippi, surface winds generally
shift across this front but as this feature extends into Alabama, it
is primarily defined by a pressure trough with little in the way of
a wind shift or change in the thermodynamic environment.

Sounding data along with upper air guidance suggests drier air aloft
is present in greater magnitude to the east and the north while
profiles are more moist to the south and the west.

Rotating storms remain likely across our south-central, southwest
and western counties with a limited tornado risk. While
conditions had become somewhat calmer in the short- term,
additional development across our south and west counties continue
to be monitored closely. Tornadoes remain possible as we remain
in the synoptically favored right front quadrant of a former
tropical cyclone.

Breaks in cloud cover continue across our eastern, southeast and
south-central counties and solar insolation continues to result in
surface heating that is increasing instability values. Wind shear is
most prominent off the surface at this time, supporting broad storm
rotation. Wind shear values will increase across our western and
northwest counties for the remainder of this afternoon and evening
as the remnants of Harvey move into western Tennessee.

Radar imagery indicates storms that we are closely watching in
Pickens, Perry and Marengo Counties with more activity to the
southwest. Our southwest and west-central counties continue to have
the greatest potential for rotating storms and possible tornadoes.

JH/05

.LONG TERM...

Rain chances will drop significantly for Friday as much drier air
aloft moves into the region around the southern periphery of
Harvey`s remnant low. The weekend looks dry for most if not all
of our forecast area with the arrival of northwesterly flow. The
next chance of rain may not come until Tuesday as southerly flow
develops in advance of an approaching upper-level trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Band one has exited the TAF window to the east and now watching
band 2 begin to work in from the west. Looks to move into TCL at
or just past 18Z and then work into EET and BHM by 20 to 21Z and
then sliding northeastward after that. There should be a line that
moves through MGM and TOI as well, but they may not see the amount
of activity as the northern sites. As the center of the remnants
of Harvey moves northeast, we will see low clouds and showers
overnight at the northern sites along with the main low itself.

Note: Have put in AMD NOT SKED for KASN TAF since winds are
missing from the observation and will be a factor in the forecast
today and tonight.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances are expected through tonight with tropical
moisture in place. A drying trend will follow for Friday and the
weekend. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  80  60  81  60 /  90  50  20  10  10
Anniston    70  82  63  83  62 /  90  40  20  10  10
Birmingham  70  82  64  83  64 /  90  30  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  70  84  66  86  64 /  90  20  10  10   0
Calera      70  82  65  85  65 /  90  20  10  10  10
Auburn      71  84  66  84  65 /  70  30  20  10  10
Montgomery  73  88  67  88  67 /  70  20  10  10  10
Troy        72  87  68  87  66 /  40  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for the following counties:
Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Etowah...Fayette...Jefferson...
Lamar...Marion...St. Clair...Walker...Winston.

&&

mcd1605

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

Areas affected…Parts of eastern Mississippi into western Alabama

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 311531Z – 311730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…Some increase in the risk for generally isolated and
relatively short-lived tornadoes may occur through midday and early
afternoon. It is not yet certain that a watch will be needed, but
trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION…East of the remnant circulation center of Harvey,
tropical boundary layer moisture (mid 70s+ F surface dew points)
remains present in a narrow corridor roughly centered near the
Mississippi/Alabama state border area. Breaks in cloud cover across
this region have allowed for some insolation and destabilization, as
a broken band of convection pivots across the region. Coinciding
with a broad belt of 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, which is
contributing to sizable low-level hodographs where near surface flow
remains southeasterly (mainly ahead of the broken band of
convection), at least some risk for brief tornadoes remains evident.
However, the extent of this threat remains unclear, and will
probably hinge on whether rain cooled air now present across much of
central and southern Alabama can modify appreciably. Currently this
seems unlikely, but a couple of corridors of substantive further
boundary layer destabilization seem at least possible. One of these
may extend north and east of Biloxi MS into southwestern Alabama
(near/north of Mobile). The other may develop near Tuscaloosa
northwestward into areas near/east of Tupelo and Columbus MS.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/31/2017

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…BMX…HUN…MOB…MEG…JAN…LIX…

LAT…LON 30618883 31698838 33188861 33878880 34578878 34878820
33188731 32508771 31978792 31188782 30448833 30368885
30618883

================================================================

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

enh_0000

 

ww0476_radar

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern and western Alabama
Northeast Mississippi
Southwest Tennessee

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1115 AM until
800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include…
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY…Arcing bands of showers and storms will pose a risk for
brief tornadoes this afternoon into early evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
either side of a line from 60 miles north of Oxford MS to 55 miles
southeast of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 20030.

 

Go Away Now – Harvey

Locatio
7

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

=====================================================================

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

LCH_loop (4)

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

=================================================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

=========================================================================

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken since this afternoon as the center
has moved farther inland over Louisiana. Surface observations
indicate that winds along the northern Gulf coast have decreased,
and the system became a tropical depression in the 0000 UTC
intermediate advisory. Harvey should continue to gradually weaken
as the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected
to dissipate over the Ohio Valley within 72 hours.

Harvey is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The cyclone
should turn northeastward around the northwestern portion of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from the western Atlantic
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern is
forecast to take Harvey across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys during the next couple of days.

It should be noted that despite Harvey’s weakening, heavy rainfall
and flooding are forecast to occur along the path of Harvey during
the next few days, but its faster forward speed should keep
subsequent rainfall amounts well below what occurred along the
northwest Gulf coast.

This is last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in public
advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM
CDT under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Additional information can
also be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service office.

The National Hurricane Center would like to thank all the men and
women that have worked countless hours at local National Weather
Service Forecast offices along the Gulf coast providing life-saving
warnings and information during the past week, on top of preparing
their family and homes for the storm. The center would also like to
acknowledge the dedication of the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft crews that flew numerous missions into Harvey. In
addition, NHC thanks the staff at the Weather Prediction Center,
who led efforts to coordinate forecasts of the historic
flooding event, NWS River Forecast Centers that provided flood
guidance, and the Storm Prediction Center, that coordinated tornado
forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/
Port Arthur, and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals
compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials,
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

3. The Weather Prediction Center will issue public advisories on
Harvey as long as it remains a rainfall threat. These advisories
can continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
and at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 31.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
48H 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
72H 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

=================================== ======================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS…35 MPH…55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

JACKSON MS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 43
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-311215-

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 43
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA  AL092017
1102 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This product covers SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

**FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 30 miles north-northeast of Alexandria LA
    - 31.7N 92.3W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 30 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 10 pm CDT, Tropical Depression Harvey was continuing to track
toward the northeast across Central Louisiana with maximum
sustained winds of 35 mph, and it is forecast to continue with this
motion overnight tonight and into Thursday.

Rainfall continues across interior East Texas into Central Louisiana,
where an additional one half to 1 inch of rainfall is possible the
rest of tonight, with locally higher amounts possible. A flash flood
watch remains in effect for these areas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
East Texas and Extreme Western Louisiana. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having additional devastating to
catastrophic impacts.
These impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
parts of Central Louisiana. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having possible limited impacts.

* WIND:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

* SURGE:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across coastal SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not return to evacuated areas until hazardous winds diminish
and flood waters abate.

RECOVERY PHASE - Do not return to evacuated areas until it is safe.
Listen for the all-clear signal from local authorities.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

As it pertains to this event...this will be the last local statement
issued by the National Weather Service in Lake Charles LA regarding
the effects of tropical cyclone hazards upon the area.

$$

13



Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-311330-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-170831T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1230 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Jefferson, Tyler, Newton, Hardin,
Orange, and Jasper Counties of Southeast Texas...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
  Tyler County in southeastern Texas...
  Newton County in southeastern Texas...
  Hardin County in southeastern Texas...
  Orange County in southeastern Texas...
  Jasper County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 830 AM CDT Thursday

* At 1224 AM CDT, Doppler radar and gauge reports indicated heavy
  rain has fallen across the warned area. 10 to 30 inches of rain
  have fallen with some spots seeing 50 inches. Flash flooding is
  already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Jefferson, Tyler, Newton,
Hardin, Orange, and Jasper Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches,
  Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Jasper, Silsbee, West Orange,
  Woodville, Newton, Kirbyville, Kountze, Sour Lake, Colmesneil, Nome
  and Chester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3101 9466 3106 9456 3118 9354
      3082 9356 3054 9374 3044 9370 3033 9376
      3029 9371 3006 9370 2999 9386 2981 9395
      2969 9384 2967 9406 2956 9435 2989 9436
      2989 9444 3011 9445 3011 9460 3049 9473

$$

Rua



Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Village Creek Near Kountze

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Evadale
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

TXC245-361-311644-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0098.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAT2.3.ER.170827T2236Z.170902T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River Near Beaumont.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.4 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 13.0 feet...River is near flood of record
  which occurred october 1994. Widespread major flooding is
  occurring. Numerous homes in Northeast Beaumont and Rose City are
  flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 11.5 feet...Major flooding is occurring.
  River levels are near those reached during Tropical Storm Allison
  in 1989. Several streets in Northeast Beaumont are flooded and
  impassable and water is in homes near the river. Neighborhoods on
  the north side of Interstate 10 in Rose City are flooded with water
  in approximately 4 homes.
* Impact...At stages near 11.0 feet...Major flooding occurs at
  Colliers Ferry Park and around the Beaumont Country Club.
  Residential roads off of Pine Street are impassable and water up to
  homes. Several streets in Northeast Beaumont also become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 10.0 feet...Major flooding around the
  Beaumont Country Club, Colliers Ferry Park and Pine Street can be
  expected.


$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Village Creek Near Kountze

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Evadale
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

TXC199-241-245-361-311644-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NSBT2.3.ER.170827T1530Z.170902T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* At 9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was estimated to be near 11.7 feet.
* Forecast... continue rising to a stage near 15.1 feet by Saturday morning
  and begin falling by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At stages near 10.0 feet...Major flooding along the river
  including Northwest Orange County From Lake View to the Saltwater
  Barrier with several homes and camps flooded. Flooding is also
  occurring along the river in Beaumont.
* Impact...At stages near 9.5 feet...Major flooding in Lakeview
  Estates.
* Impact...At stages near 8.0 feet...Widespread flooding, especially
  in Northwest Orange County from Lake View downstream to the
  Saltwater Barrier. Several homes and camps are flooded or
  threatend.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9404 3008 9401 3008 9413 3033 9421

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Sabine River Near Bon Wier
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Sabine River Near Orange

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-311619-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.3.ER.170828T1352Z.170902T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.3 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.4 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 29.0 feet...Major flooding occurring
  leaving the town of Deweyville isolated. Numerous homes are
  flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 27.9 feet...This flooding will be similar
  to the flooding expierenced in the flood of March 2001. Homes in
  Deweyville have water in them.
* Impact...At stages near 27.0 feet...Widespread moderate lowland
  flooding will occur. Homes in Deweyville closest to the river are
  flooded. Flooding of homes in the Indian Lakes and River Oaks
  sections will also occur. Low-lying roads and a few homes in
  Southwest Beauregard Parish have some flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 9363 3011 9364 3011 9378 3031 9381
      3062 9378

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Sabine River Near Bon Wier
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Sabine River Near Orange

LAC019-TXC361-311619-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ORNT2.3.ER.170830T0615Z.170903T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Orange.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 6.5 feet by
  Sunday early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 6.0 feet...Major flooding can be expected.
  Numerous roads and homes in Orange are subject to flooding.
  Backwater flooding along Adams Bayou can be expected. Water begins
  to approach the travel lanes on I-10.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Moderate flooding can be
  expected along the river with some roads in Orange likely flooded.
  Back water flooding can also be expected along Adams Bayou in
  Orange.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 9376 3018 9365 3014 9363 2998 9372
      3001 9381

$$




Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
311030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
529 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Tropical Storm Harvey has moved onshore and will continue to move
to the north northeast today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall is
expected to continue across southeast Texas and will further
exacerbate flooding ongoing across the region. As Harvey
progresses northeastward, the flooding threat could shift into
western Louisiana. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the
entire area.

Gusty winds are expected today as Harvey continues to move inland. A
Tropical Storm Warning continues for areas along and south of I-10
today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for areas along and north of
I-10.

There is a Marginal Risk for tornadoes today in the rainbands
rotating around the center of Harvey.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire region on Thursday
with the possibility of additional showers which could lead to
additional flooding.

Chances for rain will decrease on Friday and Saturday as drier
air filters into the area. However, moderate to major flooding is
expected to continue along area rivers.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
weekend and early next week as a week as the next weather system
approaches the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...images (24)

Harvey – Go away now

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

151152WPCQPF_sm (1)
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

=======================================================================

151152

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch is discontinued west of Sabine Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Holly Beach Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sabine Pass Texas to west of Holly Beach Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

151152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.3 West. Harvey is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn
toward the northeast is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey should move through
southwestern and central Louisiana today and tonight, then move
through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern Mississippi Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Harvey moves
farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the south of the center. During the past few hours,
there have been reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in
southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas near Lake Charles,
Cameron, and Sabine Pass.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is
993 mb (29.33 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 10
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward
into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The expected
heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western
Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river, small
stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF
YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please
see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Holly Beach to Morgan City…2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach incl. Galveston Bay…1 to 3 ft
Morgan City to Grand Isle…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through
this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast
Arkansas.

151152_current_wind_sm

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

============================================================================

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS… TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SABINE PASS TEXAS TO WEST OF HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.3W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.3W AT 30/1500Z…INLAND
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 93.5W…INLAND

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 93.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

151152_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

============================================================================

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has changed little in organization since landfall, with
satellite and radar data showing continued convective banding, most
notably in the northwestern quadrant. Winds gusts of 35-45 kt have
been reported over the coastal regions south of the center, and the
central pressure has risen only slightly to 993 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. It should be noted that
a large area of winds just below tropical-storm-force is occurring
over the Gulf of Mexico south of the coasts of south-central and
southeastern Louisiana.

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Harvey
moved northward for a period of several hours near landfall, but now
is resuming a north-northeastward motion of roughly 020/7. The
cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric
high, which should steer it north-northeastward and then
northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
during the next few days until the system dissipates.

Harvey should gradually weaken as it moves farther inland, with the
intensity expected to drop below tropical-storm strength shortly
after the 12 h point. Subsequently, the system should decay to a
remnant low by 72 h and dissipate completely by 96 h. The forecast
weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall
and flooding along Harvey’s path, although the system’s faster
motion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what
occurred over southeastern Texas.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston,
Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by
the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 30.5N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1200Z…DISSIPATED

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS…45 MPH…75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

JACKSON MS 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FORT POLK LA 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)

LAKE CHARLES 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)

CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

JASPER TX 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)

KOUNTZE TX 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

===============================================================

151152_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1059 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

LAZ052>054-073-074-302300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

TXZ215-302300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

LAZ041-042-055-056-059-065>068-TXZ216-302300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…LCH…LIX…

=========================================================================

http://www.weather.gov/lix/satellite

activity_loop (6)

mcd1600

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Areas affected…Parts of east central and southeast Louisiana
through southern Mississippi

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 301451Z – 301645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…At least some risk for mainly isolated, relatively
short-lived tornadoes is already evident. The extent of this threat
remains a bit unclear, but it seems likely to increase into and
through early afternoon, particularly within a corridor across east
central and southeast Louisiana through much of southern
Mississippi, perhaps as far north as the I-20 corridor.

DISCUSSION…Beneath the lower/mid tropospheric dry slot to the east
of the remnant circulation center of Harvey, breaks in low-level
cloud cover are likely already allowing for an increase in boundary
layer instability in response to insolation. This should continue
into and through the midday hours, particularly within a narrow
plume of tropical boundary layer moisture (with surface dew points
of 75F+) wrapping across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal
areas, into the vicinity of the surface cyclone center which
continues to slowly track north northeast of Lake Charles.

Within/across this corridor of richer boundary layer moisture
content, a southeasterly component to the near surface flow beneath
southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 40 kt is already contributing
to favorable hodographs for the development of substantive low-level
mesocyclones. As cells embedded within ongoing and developing bands
of convection pivoting around Harvey occasionally strengthen, the
risk for mainly isolated, brief tornadoes will probably increase as
the boundary layer undergoes further destabilization into and
through early afternoon.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/30/2017

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…MOB…JAN…LIX…LCH…SHV…

LAT…LON 32139187 32329116 32128998 31468851 30308856 29918954
30649045 30989167 31589237 32139187

mcd1600

   Mesoscale Discussion 1600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of east central and southeast Louisiana
   through southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 301451Z - 301645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...At least some risk for mainly isolated, relatively
   short-lived tornadoes is already evident.  The extent of this threat
   remains a bit unclear, but it seems likely to increase into and
   through early afternoon, particularly within a corridor across east
   central and southeast Louisiana through much of southern
   Mississippi, perhaps as far north as the I-20 corridor.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath the lower/mid tropospheric dry slot to the east
   of the remnant circulation center of Harvey, breaks in low-level
   cloud cover are likely already allowing for an increase in boundary
   layer instability in response to insolation.  This should continue
   into and through the midday hours, particularly within a narrow
   plume of tropical boundary layer moisture (with surface dew points
   of 75F+) wrapping across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal
   areas, into the vicinity of the surface cyclone center which
   continues to slowly track north northeast of Lake Charles.

   Within/across this corridor of richer boundary layer moisture
   content, a southeasterly component to the near surface flow beneath
   southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 40 kt is already contributing
   to favorable hodographs for the development of substantive low-level
   mesocyclones.  As cells embedded within ongoing and developing bands
   of convection pivoting around Harvey occasionally strengthen, the
   risk for mainly isolated, brief tornadoes will probably increase as
   the boundary layer undergoes further destabilization into and
   through early afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/30/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32139187 32329116 32128998 31468851 30308856 29918954
               30649045 30989167 31589237 32139187 

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Go away Harvey…

212527_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (1)

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.2N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 060 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 97.4
West. Harvey has been drifting east-northeastward for the past few
hours. Little additional motion is anticipated during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. San Marcos Regional Airport recently reported
sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph
(85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40
inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches
farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the
Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of
this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

====================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 75NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 97.6

============================================================================

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.
Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since
there are no surface observations near the center, this is the
intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is
anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the
SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey’s
circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could
weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.

 

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey’s winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

====================================================================

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS…65 MPH…100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

JASPER TX 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14)

HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16)

AUSTIN TX 34 11 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 3(22) 3(25) 1(26)
AUSTIN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 18 13(31) 2(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11)

MATAGORDA TX 34 12 4(16) 4(20) 4(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 8 10(18) 10(28) 4(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15)

MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

HARLINGEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

============================================================

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL092017
758 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ234>238-245>247-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220>227-231>233-241>244-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

southplains_loop (1)

HGX_loop (1)

EWX_loop

Harvey

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.9N 97.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…35 KM W OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Texas coast has been replaced with a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

Hurricane warnings continue for inland areas near the center of
Harvey. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the
center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland near the core
of Harvey. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Lapenta

Harvey is getting an attitude now!

The Pressure took a precipitous drop and this system is a major Hurricane with winds sustained at 95kts/110mph.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Multiple observing platforms indicate that Harvey’s structure is
evolving this morning. The hurricane has developed concentric
eyewalls, as observed in data from the WSR-88D Doppler radars in
Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane reported double wind maxima with diameters of 12 and
28 n mi. The aircraft data indicate that the central pressure has
continued to fall–now down to 947 mb–but the maximum winds have
not increased further. This discrepancy is not surprising given
hurricane’s current structure.

Intensity forecasts become complicated once a hurricane develops
concentric eyewalls, and fluctuations in intensity become more
likely. If an eyewall replacement occurs, then Harvey’s intensity
could decrease a bit while at the same time the overall wind field
increases in size. However, the hurricane remains in an environment
for intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity
is still possible before the center reaches land. But in the end,
the hurricane’s exact intensity at landfall does not change the
fact that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland
across much of southern and southeastern Texas. Slow weakening is
expected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not
expected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to
maintain tropical storm status through Wednesday.

Harvey has not quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/9 kt. Strong mid-level ridging building over the
western United States is still expected to impede Harvey’s forward
motion in the coming days, and the track guidance continues to show
the hurricane meandering or stalling near or just inland of the
Texas coast in 36-48 hours. Harvey could begin moving slowly
eastward on days 4 and 5 due to the influence of a mid-level
shortwave trough digging southward over the upper Midwest, but at
this time it is too early to say whether the center will definitely
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
tonight, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations should be
rushed to completion in the warning areas as tropical-storm-force
winds are arriving on the coast, and conditions will continue to
deteriorate through the rest of today and tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 26.7N 96.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 27.6N 96.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.4N 97.3W 90 KT 105 MPH…INLAND
36H 27/0000Z 28.8N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 28.3N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 30/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND

============================================================================

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 96.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of
the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward
speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre
Island recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday.  During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana.  Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are likely just beginning in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are likely to begin within the hurricane
warning area later today or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... 
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  96.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  96.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  95.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.6N  96.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.4N  97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N  97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.9N  97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.3N  96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N  95.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N  94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N  96.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TCVAT4

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ237-238-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-252300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ191-206-252300-
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

click about and see a vast array of products to keep you busy.

Harvey is a complex system,  with a varying profile, along with two centers. They most likely has two areas of rotation.  So with in mind, pay attention closely to this system

153146

Harvey – 85mph Sustained.

I have seen Hurricane Harvey drop from 1007mb down to 979mb.  This deepening is a very big issue as Hurricane Harvey roars northwest.  From the southern most tip of Texas to Louisiana will experience the effects of a powerful (Major Hurricane).

It had stopped and that is never really a good thing.  Stay tuned to your scanners and local Radio and TV weather men and women.  Also consider the commentary as a rule of thumb.  When it does strike land,  and the areas around the circumference will get the worst of the severe weather.  Waterspouts and Tornados and wind damage all around Harvey.

BE CAREFUL —–   Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)

GULFIR172361815

000
WTNT24 KNHC 241804 CCA
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HARVEY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1800 UTC THU AUG 24 2017

CORRECTED FOR EXTENSION OF STORM SURGE WARNING

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEAST OF SAN LUIS
PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS… CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE… IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IN ADDITION… INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.6W AT 24/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.6W AT 24/1800Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT…100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


WTNT34 KNHC 241805 CCB
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Special Advisory Number 17…CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Corrected for extension of Storm Surge Warning

…HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING…
…PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI…525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…979 MB…28.91 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northeast of San Luis
Pass to High Island Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.6
West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and
Harvey’s forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the
middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early
Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to
central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches
extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

====================================================================

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
157 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ235-236-242>247-251-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ238-250200-
/O.UPG.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ234-250200-
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ237-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

======================================================================

 

Harvey II (for now)

 

 

 

 


211729WPCQPF_sm

 



 

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT HARVEY HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 525 MI…845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 460 MI…740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 92.5 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 2 mph (4
km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster
forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast
track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Harvey could become a tropical storm later tonight
and a hurricane on Friday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data and Mexican surface observations is 1003 mb
(29.62 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Mansfield to High Island…4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
* NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 92.6W

211729_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High-resolution visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern
of Harvey is a little better organized than it was this morning, but
the system lacks distinct banding features. Surface synoptic
observations, ASCAT data, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB indicated that the cyclone has not strengthened, so the current
intensity is held at 30 kt. The global models predict that an
upper-level low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will essentially
dissipate in a day or so. Therefore, Harvey is expected to remain
in a relatively low-shear environment up to the Texas coast.
Moreover, ocean analyses show that a warm eddy that broke off from
the Loop Current has drifted westward across the Gulf to a location
near the projected path of Harvey. This would also be conducive to
strengthening, so it is likely that the system will become a
hurricane prior to landfall, although this is not explicitly shown
in the NHC forecast for which landfall is indicated between 48 and
72 hours.

Based on the scatterometer data and geostationary satellite fixes
the center hasn’t moved much this afternoon, although recent imagery
suggests a northwestward drift at about 320/2 kt. A weak mid-level
ridge to the northeast of Harvey should cause the cyclone to move
on a northwestward or north-northwestward track through 48 hours.
Later, steering currents weaken as a ridge builds over the
southwestern United States and a trough drops down from the Plains.
As a result, Harvey should decelerate while making landfall and
move very slowly just inland of the coast. Some of the track
guidance models, such as the HWRF, have shifted southwestward in
comparison to their previous run. The official track forecast is
very close to the previous one through 48 hours and is a little
slower and to the west after that time. This is very close to the
latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. It should be noted that
synoptic surveillance data are currently being collected by the NOAA
G-IV jet aircraft and these data will be assimilated into, and
hopefully improve the forecasts by, the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy
rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions
of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern
Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday
through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High
Island, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the
next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is
based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best
represents the flooding potential in those locations within the
watch area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 21.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND211729_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211729.shtml?gm_track#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211729.shtml?wsurge#contents

 

The top-2 links are very informative and for people along those areas, these links might be very useful to you.

GMZ001-240845-  Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico  434 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017      .SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is centered near 21.6N  92.6W at 5 PM EDT, moving NW, or 312 degrees at 2 kt. Maximum  sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40 kt. Harvey is forecast  to intensify to tropical storm strength this evening, moving  inland over southern Texas Friday night.    $$


GMZ011-240845-  NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-  434 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

 TROPICAL STORM WARNING    TONIGHT  E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.  THU  NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, building to 11 ft  in the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

 THU NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E winds 25 to  30 kt,increasing to 35 to 40 kt late. Seas 17 ft, building to 24  ft late. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. FRI   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SE winds 45 to 55  kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Scattered showers and isolated  thunderstorms.

 FRI NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds  45 to 55 kt. Seas 18 ft, subsiding to 13 ft late.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

 SAT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  

SAT NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

 SUN  S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

 SUN NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

 MON NIGHT  SW to W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.

 

Trouble in the Tropics?

The Yucatan Peninsula is where Tropical Storm Harvey  will first encounter land.   And  as it does it will weaken.  It is only a bland tropical system as is.  Any interaction with land will weaken it, but trajectory is a huge issue.  Crossing the Peninsula diagonally is best for everyone but those who see significant swells, a few winds and perhap torrential rains.  I am not saying that it is good news for Southern Texas to Lake Carles, LA.

204351_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

As the 5PM REPORT Came out,  the diagonal path seems to write a different story from above.  There are two considerations.  The strength and its path.   I think perhaps the question is that the system is still only a rather weak TS and any encounter with land may cause it to weaken even further

Strongly feel that this storm may be downgraded and stay a Tropical Depression.  If it does reach TS again,  then something atypical would happening.  Apart from that, little change is expected, as per me.

 

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey,
with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but
poorly organized, convective area. Earlier reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting
an increased intensity. However, due to uncertainties in how
representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in
the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 275/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge
north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion
for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern
to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. After 72 h, a
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new
forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but
there were only minor changes in the direction. It should be noted
that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey
might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale
models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest
runs.

The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and
thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow
strengthening during this time. However, the GFS and ECMWF again
forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and
the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker
cyclone. This lowers the confidence in intensification. After
48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the
main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The
intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in
72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
120H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

…HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI…650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

GULFIR172302115       This satellite picture depicts an irregular storm center on the IR Loop.  It could better organize and center seems kind of oblique looking.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

GULFWV172301915

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

southeast

activity_loop (3)

This chart shows a lot of instability and a few showers and thunderstorms.   Pretty good indicator of enhanced convective activity.  I am not so certain of the forecast path and even a strong circulation.    Right now it is diffuse.  The next few hours may give a few answers.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) – DWWX–

Out to Sea, as always…

ANZ899-170545-  1115 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017      .SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS…Hurricane Gert was located at  37.4N 65.7W at 11 am this morning and was moving northeast  at 22 kt. Gert is forecast to track NE to near 39.0N 61.3W by 8  pm tonight and continue to move rapidly NE overnight and Thu.  Otherwise, a stationary front will extend over the nrn areas of  the offshore waters today.

A weak cold front will move into the N  waters later this afternoon and merge with the stalled front,  then persist over this region tonight through Thu night, then  slowly lift NE and N of the waters as a warm front Fri and Fri  night.

A high pres ridge will build just N of the area Thu and  Thu night, then shift NE of the area Fri and Fri night. A weak  cold front will push SE into the NW portion Sat night, then  continue slowly SE across the N and central waters Sun into Sun  night as another ridge builds in from the NW.      $$


ANZ910-170545-  East of 69W and south of 39N to 250 nm offshore-  1115 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017    TROPICAL STORM WARNING    TODAY  SE portion…E to NE winds 25 to 35 kt early, then  becoming NW 20 to 30 kt. NW portion…E to NE winds 20 to 30 kt  early, then becoming NW 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft…except NW  portion 10 to 18 ft.

TSTMs and scattered showers early.  TONIGHT  N winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt, becoming N to NW  5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 7 to 12 ft.  THU  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6  ft.  THU NIGHT  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.  FRI  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.  

FRI NIGHT  SE winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas  2 to 3 ft.  SAT  S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to  5 ft.  SAT NIGHT  S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.  SUN  S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas 4 to  6 ft.  SUN NIGHT  NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

A series of Tropical Weather systems off the African coast has a 40% chance of development.  Not big numbers,   and but between 3-5 days,  we will know a bit more.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171630-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Limited Excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Afternoon heat indices will top out in the middle to upper 90s,
mainly across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop from
west to east across the outlook area this afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms can then be expected tonight as a cold front moves
southeast through the region.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight, mainly to the west and north of a Gainesville to Salem
line. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.

Torrential rainfall can also be expected from these storms due to
high moisture content in the atmosphere. Flash flooding will
therefore be possible in areas where multiple storms move over
the same areas. The highest risk for flash flooding will be across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms will occur through the
upcoming week and into the weekend.

Heat index values will be the 90s each day into the weekend and
as high as 100 by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and tonight
mainly to the west and north of a Gainesville to Salem line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Schaumann



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
KSC021-MOC011-097-170000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.W.0072.170816T1703Z-170817T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Cherokee County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Barton County in southwestern Missouri...
  Northwestern Jasper County in southwestern Missouri...

* Until 700 PM CDT Wednesday

* At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain has
  already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Creeks, streams, and low water crossings will be especially
  susceptible to the dangers of flash flooding.
  Locations in the warning include...
  Northern Joplin...                Webb City...
  Carl Junction...                  Lamar...
  Baxter Springs...                 Columbus...
  Galena...                         Oronogo...
  Jasper...                         Golden City...
  Airport Drive...                  Weir...
  Lowell...                         Alba...
  Scammon...                        Purcell...
  Nashville...                      Carytown...
  Asbury...                         Neck City...

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...
Highway 7 at Little Cherry Creek north of Columbus...
Route JJ at Center Creek southeast of Carl Junction...
Highway 126 at The Spring River 3 miles north of Jasper...
Route O at The Spring River just south of Alba...
and Route C at Horse Creek east of Milford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9503 3734 9469 3734 9462 3736 9462
      3755 9432 3760 9420 3762 9408 3741 9408
      3732 9416 3712 9454 3706 9462 3700 9462
      3700 9507 3715 9508

$$

Cramer



 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1054 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Into Tonight...

.Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected across
portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri into tonight
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts exceeding 5
inches possible. Given the large amount of moisture in the
atmosphere, intense rainfall rates may quickly lead to flash
flooding.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093-094-171200-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.A.0008.170816T1600Z-170817T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Barton-Cedar-
Polk-Dallas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Newton-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Fort Scott, Pawnee Station, Chicopee,
Lone Oak, Pittsburg, Baxter Springs, Lowell, Riverton, Columbus,
Neutral, Sherwin, Stippville, NEVADA, Tiffin, Appleton City,
Johnson City, Weaubleau, Hermitage, Quincy, Wheatland,
Cross Timbers, Kenoma, Lamar, Cedar Springs, El Dorado Springs,
Filley, Arnica, Caplinger Mills, Stockton, Bolivar, Buffalo,
Charity, Foose, March, Plad, Windyville, Olive, Joplin, Carthage,
Greenfield, Lockwood, Meinert, Springfield, Marshfield,
Northview, Seymour, Rogersville, Neosho, Aurora, Mount Vernon,
and Marionville
1054 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Kansas and
  Missouri, including the following areas, in southeast Kansas,
  Bourbon, Cherokee, and Crawford. In Missouri, Barton, Cedar,
  Dade, Dallas, Greene, Hickory, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton, Polk,
  St. Clair, Vernon, and Webster.

* Through Thursday morning

* Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected through
  tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with
  localized amounts over 5 inches possible. The rain will fall at
  a very rapid rate and may quickly lead to flash flooding.

* Areas that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms will see an
  increased risk for flash flooding. Rapid rises along area creeks
  and streams can be expected, along with the potential flooding
  of low water crossings. Motorists and campers should be
  especially alert for flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1009 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

NCZ099-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-171415-
Columbus-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
1009 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heat index values of 100-104 this afternoon and 102-107 Friday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$




Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

NCZ099-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-162100-
/O.NEW.KILM.HT.Y.0005.170816T1700Z-170816T2100Z/
Columbus-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-
Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
Including the cities of Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn,
Lake Waccamaw, Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte,
Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville, Darlington, North Hartsville,
Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins, Kingstree, Conway, Red Hill,
Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach, Garden City,
Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, and Murrells Inlet
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* Heat Index Values...Up to 106 due to temperatures in the lower
  90s, and dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s.

* Timing...Early this afternoon into early evening.

* Impacts...High heat and humidity will increase the risk fo