Go Away Now – Harvey

Locatio
7

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

=====================================================================

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…31.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…50 KM NNE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the
northeast is expected Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey should move through central Louisiana
tonight, then move through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern
Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night, and over the Tennessee
Valley region on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

LCH_loop (4)

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 12
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur,
and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The
expected heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into
western Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river
and small stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED
AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED
ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information on this
life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast should subside very slowly over the next day or two.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across parts of
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Additional
tornadoes are possible on Thursday afternoon and evening across
northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into parts
of Tennessee.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. These advisories will
also continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
at hurricanes.gov.

=================================================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 92.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 92.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

=========================================================================

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken since this afternoon as the center
has moved farther inland over Louisiana. Surface observations
indicate that winds along the northern Gulf coast have decreased,
and the system became a tropical depression in the 0000 UTC
intermediate advisory. Harvey should continue to gradually weaken
as the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected
to dissipate over the Ohio Valley within 72 hours.

Harvey is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The cyclone
should turn northeastward around the northwestern portion of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from the western Atlantic
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern is
forecast to take Harvey across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys during the next couple of days.

It should be noted that despite Harvey’s weakening, heavy rainfall
and flooding are forecast to occur along the path of Harvey during
the next few days, but its faster forward speed should keep
subsequent rainfall amounts well below what occurred along the
northwest Gulf coast.

This is last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in public
advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM
CDT under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Additional information can
also be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service office.

The National Hurricane Center would like to thank all the men and
women that have worked countless hours at local National Weather
Service Forecast offices along the Gulf coast providing life-saving
warnings and information during the past week, on top of preparing
their family and homes for the storm. The center would also like to
acknowledge the dedication of the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft crews that flew numerous missions into Harvey. In
addition, NHC thanks the staff at the Weather Prediction Center,
who led efforts to coordinate forecasts of the historic
flooding event, NWS River Forecast Centers that provided flood
guidance, and the Storm Prediction Center, that coordinated tornado
forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/
Port Arthur, and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals
compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials,
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

3. The Weather Prediction Center will issue public advisories on
Harvey as long as it remains a rainfall threat. These advisories
can continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
and at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 31.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
24H 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
48H 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH…INLAND
72H 03/0000Z…DISSIPATED

=================================== ======================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC THU AUG 31 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS…35 MPH…55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

JACKSON MS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

Hurricane Local Statement

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 43
LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-311215-

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 43
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA  AL092017
1102 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This product covers SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS

**FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 30 miles north-northeast of Alexandria LA
    - 31.7N 92.3W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 30 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 10 pm CDT, Tropical Depression Harvey was continuing to track
toward the northeast across Central Louisiana with maximum
sustained winds of 35 mph, and it is forecast to continue with this
motion overnight tonight and into Thursday.

Rainfall continues across interior East Texas into Central Louisiana,
where an additional one half to 1 inch of rainfall is possible the
rest of tonight, with locally higher amounts possible. A flash flood
watch remains in effect for these areas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
East Texas and Extreme Western Louisiana. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having additional devastating to
catastrophic impacts.
These impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
parts of Central Louisiana. Remain well guarded against
life-threatening flood waters having possible limited impacts.

* WIND:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

* SURGE:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across coastal SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no additional impacts are anticipated at this time
across SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not return to evacuated areas until hazardous winds diminish
and flood waters abate.

RECOVERY PHASE - Do not return to evacuated areas until it is safe.
Listen for the all-clear signal from local authorities.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

As it pertains to this event...this will be the last local statement
issued by the National Weather Service in Lake Charles LA regarding
the effects of tropical cyclone hazards upon the area.

$$

13



Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
TXC199-241-245-351-361-457-311330-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FF.W.0084.000000T0000Z-170831T1330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1230 AM CDT THU AUG 31 2017

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Jefferson, Tyler, Newton, Hardin,
Orange, and Jasper Counties of Southeast Texas...

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
  Tyler County in southeastern Texas...
  Newton County in southeastern Texas...
  Hardin County in southeastern Texas...
  Orange County in southeastern Texas...
  Jasper County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 830 AM CDT Thursday

* At 1224 AM CDT, Doppler radar and gauge reports indicated heavy
  rain has fallen across the warned area. 10 to 30 inches of rain
  have fallen with some spots seeing 50 inches. Flash flooding is
  already occurring.

  This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Jefferson, Tyler, Newton,
Hardin, Orange, and Jasper Counties. This is a PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches,
  Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Jasper, Silsbee, West Orange,
  Woodville, Newton, Kirbyville, Kountze, Sour Lake, Colmesneil, Nome
  and Chester.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9454 3101 9466 3106 9456 3118 9354
      3082 9356 3054 9374 3044 9370 3033 9376
      3029 9371 3006 9370 2999 9386 2981 9395
      2969 9384 2967 9406 2956 9435 2989 9436
      2989 9444 3011 9445 3011 9460 3049 9473

$$

Rua



Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Village Creek Near Kountze

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Evadale
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

TXC245-361-311644-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0098.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAT2.3.ER.170827T2236Z.170902T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River Near Beaumont.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.8 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.4 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 13.0 feet...River is near flood of record
  which occurred october 1994. Widespread major flooding is
  occurring. Numerous homes in Northeast Beaumont and Rose City are
  flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 11.5 feet...Major flooding is occurring.
  River levels are near those reached during Tropical Storm Allison
  in 1989. Several streets in Northeast Beaumont are flooded and
  impassable and water is in homes near the river. Neighborhoods on
  the north side of Interstate 10 in Rose City are flooded with water
  in approximately 4 homes.
* Impact...At stages near 11.0 feet...Major flooding occurs at
  Colliers Ferry Park and around the Beaumont Country Club.
  Residential roads off of Pine Street are impassable and water up to
  homes. Several streets in Northeast Beaumont also become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 10.0 feet...Major flooding around the
  Beaumont Country Club, Colliers Ferry Park and Pine Street can be
  expected.


$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Village Creek Near Kountze

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Evadale
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

TXC199-241-245-361-311644-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NSBT2.3.ER.170827T1530Z.170902T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
944 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* At 9:00 PM Wednesday the stage was estimated to be near 11.7 feet.
* Forecast... continue rising to a stage near 15.1 feet by Saturday morning
  and begin falling by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At stages near 10.0 feet...Major flooding along the river
  including Northwest Orange County From Lake View to the Saltwater
  Barrier with several homes and camps flooded. Flooding is also
  occurring along the river in Beaumont.
* Impact...At stages near 9.5 feet...Major flooding in Lakeview
  Estates.
* Impact...At stages near 8.0 feet...Widespread flooding, especially
  in Northwest Orange County from Lake View downstream to the
  Saltwater Barrier. Several homes and camps are flooded or
  threatend.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9404 3008 9401 3008 9413 3033 9421

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Sabine River Near Bon Wier
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Sabine River Near Orange

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-311619-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.3.ER.170828T1352Z.170902T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.3 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.4 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 29.0 feet...Major flooding occurring
  leaving the town of Deweyville isolated. Numerous homes are
  flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 27.9 feet...This flooding will be similar
  to the flooding expierenced in the flood of March 2001. Homes in
  Deweyville have water in them.
* Impact...At stages near 27.0 feet...Widespread moderate lowland
  flooding will occur. Homes in Deweyville closest to the river are
  flooded. Flooding of homes in the Indian Lakes and River Oaks
  sections will also occur. Low-lying roads and a few homes in
  Southwest Beauregard Parish have some flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 9363 3011 9364 3011 9378 3031 9381
      3062 9378

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...

  Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Sabine River Near Bon Wier
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Sabine River Near Orange

LAC019-TXC361-311619-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0116.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ORNT2.3.ER.170830T0615Z.170903T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
920 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Orange.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 6.5 feet by
  Sunday early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 6.0 feet...Major flooding can be expected.
  Numerous roads and homes in Orange are subject to flooding.
  Backwater flooding along Adams Bayou can be expected. Water begins
  to approach the travel lanes on I-10.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Moderate flooding can be
  expected along the river with some roads in Orange likely flooded.
  Back water flooding can also be expected along Adams Bayou in
  Orange.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 9376 3018 9365 3014 9363 2998 9372
      3001 9381

$$




Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
529 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
311030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
529 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Tropical Storm Harvey has moved onshore and will continue to move
to the north northeast today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall is
expected to continue across southeast Texas and will further
exacerbate flooding ongoing across the region. As Harvey
progresses northeastward, the flooding threat could shift into
western Louisiana. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the
entire area.

Gusty winds are expected today as Harvey continues to move inland. A
Tropical Storm Warning continues for areas along and south of I-10
today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for areas along and north of
I-10.

There is a Marginal Risk for tornadoes today in the rainbands
rotating around the center of Harvey.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire region on Thursday
with the possibility of additional showers which could lead to
additional flooding.

Chances for rain will decrease on Friday and Saturday as drier
air filters into the area. However, moderate to major flooding is
expected to continue along area rivers.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
weekend and early next week as a week as the next weather system
approaches the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...images (24)

Go away Harvey…

212527_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (1)

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.2N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 060 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 97.4
West. Harvey has been drifting east-northeastward for the past few
hours. Little additional motion is anticipated during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. San Marcos Regional Airport recently reported
sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph
(85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40
inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches
farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the
Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of
this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

====================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 75NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 97.6

============================================================================

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.
Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since
there are no surface observations near the center, this is the
intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is
anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the
SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey’s
circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could
weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.

 

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey’s winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

====================================================================

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS…65 MPH…100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

JASPER TX 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14)

HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16)

AUSTIN TX 34 11 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 3(22) 3(25) 1(26)
AUSTIN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 18 13(31) 2(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11)

MATAGORDA TX 34 12 4(16) 4(20) 4(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 8 10(18) 10(28) 4(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15)

MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

HARLINGEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

============================================================

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL092017
758 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ234>238-245>247-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220>227-231>233-241>244-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

southplains_loop (1)

HGX_loop (1)

EWX_loop

A little bit or a lot — Harvey.

hhh

wv-animated (4)

two_atl_5d0 (15)

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 26 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Harvey, located inland over eastern Texas.

1. An elongated area of low pressure stretching across north-central
Florida continues to produce a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from the southwest coast of
Florida northeastward into the western Atlantic. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive, this system has
the potential to become a tropical or subtropical depression
early next week after it moves off the northeast coast of Florida
on Sunday. The low is forecast to move close to the southeastern
coast of the United States and merge with a cold front by mid-week.
Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the low is expected to
cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas through early next week. Heavy rain is also
expected to continue over portions of southern and central Florida
during the next day or two. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office for more information on
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next
week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

=================================================================

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BARELY MOVING…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE…

 

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.1N 97.6W
ABOUT 45 MI…70 KM WNW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 97.6
West. Harvey has been nearly stationary and little motion is
anticipated during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the
next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40
inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches
farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the
Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of
this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————- 7pm

==================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 75NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 97.6W

============================================================================

 

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.
Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since
there are no surface observations near the center, this is the
intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is
anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the
SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey’s
circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could
weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.

 

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey’s winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

============================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS…65 MPH…100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

JASPER TX 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14)

HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16)

AUSTIN TX 34 11 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 3(22) 3(25) 1(26)
AUSTIN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 18 13(31) 2(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11)

MATAGORDA TX 34 12 4(16) 4(20) 4(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 8 10(18) 10(28) 4(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15)

MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

HARLINGEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

=====================================================

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ235>238-245>247-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ234-270200-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-233-270200-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220-221-223-225>227-231-232-241>244-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

US (2)

http://www.weather.gov/

LCH_loop (2)

images (24)

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AROUND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST OVER
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING A PROLONGED ELEVATED SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...WITH TIDE LEVELS EXPECTED TO RUN 1 TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMAL PROJECTED LEVELS.

LAZ052>054-073-074-TXZ215-271500-
/O.CON.KLCH.CF.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170827T1500Z/
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT
SUNDAY...

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

* TIMING...FLOODING AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF SOME ROADWAYS NEAR SABINE PASS, HOLLY
  BEACH, HACKBERRY, CAMERON, GRAND CHENIER, DELCAMBRE, AND
  CYPERMORT POINT CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

25



 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
330 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HEAVY RAINS FROM HARVEY POISED TO BRING POSSIBLE FLOODING...

.Showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer bands of
Hurricane Harvey will continue to develop and move ashore across
Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana into early next week.
Excessive rainfall amounts are likely through Wednesday...and
with soil already saturated from recent rains, flash flooding is
likely. Additional rains associated with the storm are likely to
continue past mid-week.

TXZ201-215-216-261-262-271000-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-170831T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Silsbee, Beaumont,
Sabine Pass, Sea Rim State Park, Orange, Vidor, Bridge City,
Gist, Buna, Evadale, and Deweyville
330 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas,
  Hardin, Jefferson, Orange, Southern Jasper, and Southern
  Newton.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Areal rainfall amounts of 10 to 14 inches are expected in the
  watch area through Tuesday, with locally higher amounts
  possible. Intense rainfall rates may overwhelm local drainage
  capacity.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

25



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

TXC199-241-245-351-361-262245-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-170826T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson TX-Newton TX-Hardin TX-Orange TX-Jasper TX-
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
JEFFERSON...SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON...HARDIN...ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES...

At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that heavy rain was falling over the area. Various amounts of rain
have fallen so far with two to six inches having already occurred
across Orange, Jasper and Hardin counties with one to three inches
of rain have fallen in Jefferson County. Flash flooding has already
been reported in Orange and Jasper Counties. The heaviest rains are
just now beginning to move into Jefferson County.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches,
Lumberton, Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, West Orange, Kountze, Sour
Lake, Nome, Evadale, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Hamshire, Wildwood
and Mauriceville.

Additional rainfall amounts of two to five inches are possible
through 6 PM with locally higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 9454 3052 9374 3034 9376 3002 9375
      2998 9383 2999 9386 2997 9384 2986 9393
      2984 9392 2984 9395 2981 9393 2981 9395
      2968 9385 2967 9406 2956 9436 2989 9436
      2989 9443 3011 9445 3011 9448 3049 9456

$$



 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

TORNADO WATCH 468 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC015-039-071-089-157-167-185-199-201-241-245-291-321-339-351-
361-473-477-481-270700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0468.170826T1745Z-170827T0700Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUSTIN               BRAZORIA            CHAMBERS
COLORADO             FORT BEND           GALVESTON
GRIMES               HARDIN              HARRIS
JASPER               JEFFERSON           LIBERTY
MATAGORDA            MONTGOMERY          NEWTON
ORANGE               WALLER              WASHINGTON
WHARTON
$$



 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

TXC199-245-270601-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0099.170828T0539Z-000000T0000Z/
/SOLT2.1.ER.170828T0539Z.170830T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake.
* from late Sunday night until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  9:45 AM Saturday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by early Monday morning and
  continue to rise to near 28.6 feet by early Wednesday morning.
  This forecast is based upon 72 hours of expected precipitation.
  Further rises based upon continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 29.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding will
  occur. Water covers roads in Bevil Oaks.
* Impact...At stages near 25.0 feet...Water inundates roads in
  lowland areas near the river. Low spots on Old Sour Lake Road are
  under water.
* Impact...At stages near 22.0 feet...River is at bankfull stage.

&&

LAT...LON 3012 9445 3024 9423 3021 9407 3013 9406 3004 9445

$$




 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

TXC245-361-270601-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0098.170829T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAT2.1.ER.170829T1800Z.170831T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River Near Beaumont.
* from Tuesday afternoon until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Saturday the stage was 2.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Tuesday early afternoon and
  continue to rise to near 5.1 feet by Thursday morning. This forecast
  is based upon 72 hours of expected  precipitation. Further rises
  based upon continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 4.0 feet...Minor flooding of Beaumont
  Country Club and Colliers Ferry Park can be expected. Also flooding
  in Northwest Orange County south of River Oaks to Bunns Bluff can
  be expected. Water may go over Four Oaks Ranch Road in Northwest
  Orange County.

&&

LAT...LON 3019 9417 3023 9411 3004 9378 2992 9387 2998 9406

$$


 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
271030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Harvey made landfall last night and has moved inland very slowly.
The majority of the rainbands continue across the central Texas
coast with this region this morning getting brushed but the outer
bands. A Tornado Watch continues for Jefferson... Hardin... and
Orange counties in southeast Texas. Rains will continue through
the day and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Harvey is expected to bring bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the region through the weekend and into next
week. Rainfall will be heavy at times and flooding of some
locations is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 

Harvey 130mph? What?

Even though this storm turned out to be a formidable one.  This system is open-ended with regards to heavy rainfall and perhaps a whole lot more.  Already some event,  namely football have been cancelled and for good reason.

213129

213129WPCQPF_sm

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

…EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN PORT
ARANSAS AND PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS…
…CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.8N 96.8W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…941 MB…27.79 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
complete.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.8
North, longitude 96.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest
near 8 mph (13 km/h), but its forward speed is expected to decrease
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
make landfall on the middle Texas coast during the next several
hours. Harvey is then likely to meander near or just inland of the
middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength
is likely before landfall. Weakening is then expected over the
weekend while the center moves inland over Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 79 mph (128 km/h)
and a wind gust of 101 mph (163 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Port O’Connor…9 to 13 ft
Elsewhere N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to
12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring along the coast in
the Port Aransas area and should spread over other portions of the
hurricane warning area during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the hurricane
and tropical storm warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwestern Louisiana.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

============================================================================

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD…TEXAS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD…TEXAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF BOCA DE CATAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY
BE COMPLETE.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

============================================================================

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Despite its concentric eyewall structure, Harvey’s winds have
increased during the day. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter planes have measured maximum flight-level winds of 129 kt
and SFMR winds to 102 kt. Based on these data, Harvey’s maximum
surface winds are estimated to be 110 kt. Harvey’s central pressure
has also continued to fall, and the latest estimate based on
dropsonde data is 941 mb.

Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt. Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight. After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours. In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week. This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.

Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength. Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey’s slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast. Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey will make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening
storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas
coast. Tropical-storm-force winds have moved onshore in portions of
the warning areas and conditions will continue to deteriorate as
the eye of Harvey approaches the middle Texas coast tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 27.5N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
24H 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

=====================================================================

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
755 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ237-238-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

NOW LET ME BE PERFECTLY CLEAR.   THIS IS NO TIME TO BE AN EGGHEAD AND DRINK AND ACT A FOOT.    THIS IS A BAD ASS STORM!!!!

LISTEN TO EMT,  LOCAL RADIO AND TV SOURCES, including WX Channel and scanners.   Stay alive and be smart!

Well,  this is a crazy storm!!  It has deepened like a deep crevice opening, or a Caldera.   It WILL be nasty and it is going to ruin a lot of people’s lives.    This wv-animated (3)

Tropical Storm Franklin 08/07/2017

144055

Right now, it appears as if Franklin is at its strongest. Its core is winding up but it’s center will be torn a little as it moves into the Yucatan Peninsula and then reforming for awhile in the Southern Bay of Campeche.  After that, it is Mexico-bound.  It should not have any discernable effect on the Lower 48 states (CONUS).

There is the possibility that high winds and rough seas will be near the Southern portions of the state of Texas.  There is nothing contradicting this,  at this time.

Flooding near BWI and adjacent areas.   A few warnings possible this afternoon with severe thunderstorms and flooding.    A wide area of coverage in the Baltimore, Washington DC, and Dover areas.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-080900-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
355 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Areas of patchy fog or possible Monday morning, though should
 steadily dissipate after sunrise. An isolated thunderstorm or two
 is possible across northern Missouri this afternoon. No severe
 weather is expected with this activity.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Widespread thunderstorms will make a return by Wednesday into
 Thursday. Additional storm chances are then possible heading into
 the weekend. At this time, no severe weather or hydrological
 concerns are expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
157 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Big Creek at Blairstown affecting Cass...Henry and Johnson Counties.

  South Grand River at Urich affecting Bates...Cass and Henry
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-081857-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0165.000000T0000Z-170809T1326Z/
/BLRM7.2.ER.170806T0541Z.170806T2300Z.170808T1326Z.UU/
157 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Creek at Blairstown.
* until Wednesday morning.
* At  1:00 PM Monday the stage was 24.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Tuesday morning.
* At 23.0 feet...Flooding occurs at the west approach to the N
  Highway bridge located 0.2 miles west of Blairstown. Flooding also
  occurs across B Highway near Big Creek which is several miles
  northwest of Blairstown.
* At 20.0 feet...The west bank of the creek begins to flood.

&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Big Creek
  Blairstown      20   24.6   Mon 01 PM   23.9 this evening

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9422 3875 9416 3857 9394 3840 9384 3840 9391



$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
117 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

MOC083-101-159-081845-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FA.W.0026.000000T0000Z-170808T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henry MO-Pettis MO-Johnson MO-
117 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Henry County in west central Missouri...
  Pettis County in central Missouri...
  Johnson County in west central Missouri...

* Until 145 PM CDT Tuesday

* At 115 PM CDT, Numerous roads in the warned area remain closed due
  to the torrential rain that fell Saturday night. Check local
  department of transportation websites for more information on road
  closures, and drive carefully, especially at night.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Sedalia, Warrensburg, Clinton, Windsor, Knob Noster, Holden,
  Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, Leeton, Urich, Green Ridge,
  Calhoun, Deepwater, Montrose, Creighton, Chilhowee, Kingsville,
  Houstonia, Whiteman Afb and Coal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9407 3857 9407 3857 9412 3866 9413
      3892 9411 3891 9384 3894 9383 3894 9336
      3885 9315 3853 9316 3854 9328 3852 9330
      3851 9352 3821 9353

$$

Leighton


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
850 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Lamine River near Otterville affecting Cooper County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Blackwater River at Valley City affecting Johnson and Pettis
  Counties.

  Blackwater River near Blue Lick affecting Cooper and Saline
  Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC101-159-081350-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0166.000000T0000Z-170810T0138Z/
/VLYM7.3.ER.170806T0334Z.170807T0630Z.170809T0138Z.NR/
850 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Blackwater River at Valley City.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 32.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Tuesday evening.
* At 31.0 feet...Extensive flooding of rural property and many roads
  occurs.
* At 25.0 feet...County Highway E near Valley City and Highway 23
  near the Perry State Wildlife Area are under water.
* At 22.0 feet...Woodlands and farm fields along the river begin to
  flood.


&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Blackwater River
  Valley City     22   32.5   Mon 08 AM   31.2 this afternoon

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9342 3882 9361 3882 9368 3891 9361 3899 9348 -x