Emily already

The movement of TD Emily will be influenced by a Southeast moving Cold Front.  And that is the biggest question, where and when?  Emily will follow the front and any slowing will slow down Emily.

The moving parts are a bit complex.    The cold front will pass over the next few hours and then Emily.   But anything slowing the front will complicate the picture.  The 500mb Hgt Falls are not dramatic but after some digging southward the biggest falls are along the Eastern Coast and it would follow those Hgt Falls.

It can only go so far Westward before invariably turning N/E.   There will be some strengthening in the Atlantic but after a while it will becoming a Tropical Depression once again.

500_170731_12300_170731_00

ANZ899-010830-  512 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017      .SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS…A stationary front extending NE  to SW across the outer central and S waters will persist and  weaken tonight into Tue while several weak lows track NE along  the front. High pres will build in from the NW tonight, move  offshore into the N waters Tue and Tue night, then pass E of the  area Wed into Fri while maintaining a weakening ridge back across  the N waters. A cold front will approach from the NW Fri and Fri  night, then push SE into the N and central waters late Sat into  Sat night. Tropical Depression Emily now over Florida will approach  from the S tonight and Tue while strengthening into a tropical  storm. The tropical storm will move NE to near 31.4N 76.3W by 2  am Wed, to near 33.0N 74.0W by 2 pm Wed, to near 35.6N 68.7W by 2  pm Thu, then pass E of the waters later Thu into Fri. See the  latest National Hurricane Center advisory for Emily.    $$

Cape Fear to 31N to 1000 fm-  512 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017    TROPICAL STORM WARNING    TONIGHT  NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered  showers and TSTMs. TUE  NE winds 10 to 20 kt, except far SE portion becoming E to  NE 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.  TUE NIGHT  N to NE winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt, except E  portion 30 to 40 kt early. Winds then becoming E to NE 20 to 30  kt late. Seas building to 5 to 9 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.  WED  N to NE winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to  3 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.  WED NIGHT  Winds becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas  subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.  THU  Variable winds less than 10 kt, becoming S. Seas 2 to  3 ft.  THU NIGHT  S to SW winds less than 10 kt, becoming SW. Seas  2 to 3 ft.  FRI  SW winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas  building to 3 to 5 ft.  FRI NIGHT  SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.  SAT  W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.  SAT NIGHT  SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

download

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

NMZ501>540-011100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
516 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall is possible nearly anywhere today, but the greatest
concern exists over east central and southeast New Mexico where
widespread heavy rain may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Localized areas of heavy rainfall remain possible on Tuesday, mainly
across western New Mexico. Flash flooding will be possible. Drier
conditions are expected for Wednesday, but a back door front on
Thursday will be a trigger for another round of widespread heavy
rains across eastern New Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

$$

34


 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

NMZ538-010015-
Chaves County Plains-
544 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

At 544 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Elkins, or 25 miles northeast of Roswell, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime sized hail will be possible with
this storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Chaves
County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 10414 3356 10426 3366 10436 3376 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 137DEG 10KT 3366 10425

$$

50


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
321 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

NMZ521>526-533>540-010400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170801T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-
South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Guadalupe County-Quay County-Curry County-
Roosevelt County-De Baca County-Chaves County Plains-
Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
321 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of north and central New Mexico, including the
  following areas: Central Highlands, Chaves County Plains, Curry
  County, De Baca County, Eastern Lincoln County, Estancia Valley,
  Guadalupe County, Quay County, Roosevelt County, Sandia/Manzano
  Mountains, South Central Highlands, South Central Mountains,
  Southwest Chaves County and Upper Tularosa Valley.

* through late tonight

* Abundant moisture and instability will lead to numerous slow-
  moving thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening
  across east central and southeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms may
  repeatedly impact the same area, leading to prolonged heavy rain.
  Some areas received heavy rain on Sunday, and saturated soils in
  these area will lead to increased runoff. Some of the heaviest
  rains may occur during the late afternoon and evening hours.

* Heavy downpours will lead to ponding of water in low lying areas
  and abrupt and excessive water runoff near steeper terrain.
  Normally dry creeks, arroyos, low water crossings, and river beds
  could turn to raging torrents during flash flooding episodes.
  Road closures will be possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash
Flood Warnings be issued.

10286_b1

Special Marine Warning

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ610-010045-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0211.170731T2339Z-170801T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 737 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  WATERSPOUTS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAND CUT
  TO NEAR LIBERTY POINT...MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS.

  HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS AND WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...WATERSPOUTS CAN QUICKLY FORM AND CAPSIZE BOATS...DAMAGE
           VESSELS AND CREATE SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES. MAKE SURE ALL
           ON BOARD ARE IN A SECURE LOCATION AND WEARING LIFE
           JACKETS.  EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34
           KNOTS...SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
           HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAKE SURE ALL ON BOARD ARE WEARING LIFE
           JACKETS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LIBERTY POINT...CANAL POINT...CLEWISTON...SAND CUT...PAHOKEE...
  BUCKHEAD RIDGE...LAKE HARBOR...CALUSA AND MOORE HAVEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Watch South Florida – Tropcial System?

The art of Forecasting is a sort existential nihilism,  in the minds of stage scientists.   They can’t expound on the tropics,  because many don’t know where the tropics are.   And even if they do,  it is a dog and pony show.

Secretly they pine for the drama.  Standing in the middle of a windy,  flooding town, they declare what some weather computer model might suggest.  With over 70 different nodes of information,  it is like finding needle in a haystack.

The strength and movement of a storm is so important because FEMA needs to be on the alert and Home Depot is readying for the onset of bad weather.

Image result for free hurricane clip artImage result for free hurricane clip artRelated image

Image result for free hurricane clip artImage result for free hurricane clip art

Catastrophic events that will last a lifetime.   The tears of families and the heartbreak of where they can go now.  But let’s forget about stagecraft.  Right now there is circulation over and near Ft Myers and up to Tampa.    The circulation means nothing by itself. And should this system gather steam and move into the Gulf of Mexico,  then that might be  that big story.  Like Clark Kent and Lois Lane,  the first to take notice gets the big lead.

At this time,  there is not much to take note of.  Careful scrutiny and the imagination that is required in forecasting.   Not some Bill Nye the Science Guy, opining on what he thinks can add.   Anyhow,  keep abreast of what comes next…

The land is a very hard environment for storms to begin not alone becoming a Hurricane.   We’ll see…

Image result for stay tuned clip art free

 

 

Sexism. Same as it ever was. Same as it will ever be. Unless!

I saw a blog that needs some kudos and some elaboration.    While we have lots of new stories and a lot of laws we get little else.   And for those who make it a feminist issue only you need to check into the Betty Ford Clinic because you are part of the problem.    The blog below is good because it hits upon the very nexus that is needed to effect real change.

http://feministssa.com/2015/02/23/why-the-casual-sexism-at-uct-matters/#comment-11887

“Any man that alludes to women as whore. sluts or any of those terms piss me off. It is sexism at it’s worse and women who use those words are committing the same act of sexism.

Why does it matter? Is liking asking she asked for ‘it’. We had this debate about 20 years ago when a Miami prostitute was wearing see-through clothes. The rapists said she was asking for ‘it’.

I called the radio station and claimed that women were and are subject to an “inherent sexual bias”. In effect saying that guys can be whores but that girls really are. Words do matter and young children may begin to repeat the lies.

Is it any wonder then that we excuse this? Is it any wonder that a rape happens then the rapist is allowed to barter legally and the best a woman can get is a civil suit?

So, at the end of the day what has changed? Laws look pretty like the “whores” they allege to protect. I use that term for effect since it is the continued and prevailing attitude among males and our system of jurisprudence.

Look at rape or any other form of abuse and we get laws. Nothing but a cash crop with a bunch of broken women and the harassment associated with just going with the flow.

This is a good blog because it underscores in sexual terms a kind of free-floating bias against victims.”

The comment above is one I made in response and the one below the one case that I was alluding to from Florida.   How does this happen and how will it change the future?  In another case an immigrant was assaulted and justice was served but the underlying issue was “she deserved it”.

http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2010/12/vanishing-blonde-201012

Don’t get me wrong.  Offenders should be made to pay but a greater emphasis should be made to alter perceptions and how our responses color our perceptions since we were little kids.   ‘Experts’ disagree as to what age we stop forming our personality from about three to seven years of age.    Given that,  what can we do?

We cannot control everyone twenty-four hours a day but it is painfully obvious we are not making a lot of tangible progress.  How do we preserve the natural instinct of men and women and still have respectfulness?   Sexuality is not just a cognitive process.    We have our perceptions and our instincts.

“According to this model of the psyche, the id is the set of uncoordinated instinctual trends; the super-ego plays the critical and moralizing role; and the ego is the organized, realistic part that mediates between the desires of the id and the super-ego.”

Id, ego and super-ego – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Id,_ego_and_super-ego

This is the template and our lives,  our conditions are predicated on interactions.    One thing I have a problem is are those commercials where actors and athletes basically say,  enough is enough.

“No More fawning, pandering, spineless, celebrities trying to show the world how wonderfully “enlightened” and “progressive” they are and trampling all over the remains of their own dignity in the process.

No More infantilizing women and demonizing men.
No More feminist propaganda.”

Still what do these PSAs do?   And who are these people?   What have they done?   Most importantly,  what is the message and how can it be fixed?    Do laws fix our problems or enrich the legal system, estrange people and make people paranoid of each other?     As long as we pontificate,  hand-wring and make hyperbolic gestures,  focus is diverted from the problem and that is respect for each other.
From Wikipedia

Barefoot and pregnant” is a figure of speech most commonly associated with the controversial idea that women should not work outside the home and should have many children during their reproductive years. It has several other meanings as well.

The phrase “barefoot and pregnant” seems to have been introduced in the early twentieth century by Arthur E. Hertzler, the Horse-and-Buggy Doctor’ from Kansas: “’The only way to keep a woman happy,’ he said, ‘is to keep her barefoot and pregnant.’”[1] By mid-century, the phrase had passed into common parlance, so that an article from 1949 states, “By early 1949, TWA was—in the words of its new president, Ralph S. Damon—both ‘barefoot and pregnant.'”[2]

The variation “barefoot and pregnant in the kitchen” has been associated with the phrase “Kinder, Küche, Kirche” (translated “children, kitchen, church”), used under the German Empire to describe a woman’s role in society. A comparable phrase, “Good Wife, Wise Mother“, emerged in the 1870s in Meiji Japan, and was used as a means of restricting female access to the public realm there,[3] before spreading more widely in East Asian culture.[4]

Women and menBFP

TONYTONY2

All men are a stereotype to some feminists with absolutely no redeeming value and nothing to contribute.   The men who have doting wives who are depicted as permanently emotionally disabled.        From the Burning Bed to Archie Bunker and his Edith,  they are secondary and mere props and sexual objects in the case of Farrah Fawcett.

edith-archie-bunker-pianoWELFARE

There is a lot of fail here and yet,  there are those women who become accustomed and go with the flow as much as Carmela and Tony Soprano.   We have Charlie Sheen and his tiger blood,  being elevated to a status of drug abuser and self-admitted ‘whore mongerer.”    No more what Charlie?    House Arrest?

GymTtumblr_mqz3cwnM6O1se34hmo1_1280

Girls were girls and men were men?   Today we have teens and politicians sexting and we have more Laws.  What have those laws done?      More sex offenders?   All the while the number of incidents increase.   America and the world portray sexuality being on the verge of illicit boundaries codified with Judges with teenaged girls and boys.

MMGirlsThe older

Then we have Miss Phoebe Cates and boobage while Judge Rheinhold finds himself pining for the perfect girl.   The confluence of reality and embarrassment.    The gray areas become diffuse and yet scenes of date rape and exploitation meld into the minds of young adolescent boys and girls.

And the race to deflower young women is all over the place.   From Hermoine, and the Olson Twins to Hannah Montana and Taissa Farmiga the race to show their nude bodies or in sex scenes and scandals.     It is like Barely Legal Magazine for young actresses.   Taissa was depicted as a minor and in one episode she was having sex with a patient while he was dying.   Kind of brutal with an explanation point.

You see,  hormone-driven adolescents and middle-aged lurkers think about their conquests against those considered as easy.    Two different messages being sent with exploitation of sexuality and the craven desires of Hollywood and musicians.

The answer is to respectfully introduce each gender with realistic views of what makes us human and down playing depravity or simply to examine ourselves.   This is not meant to be male-bashing but to examine where we are and where we are going with respect to each other.

Maybe counseling new parents and expecting parents on how to act around children and even pregnant women so as not to traumatize children and infants.

Let’s start treating each other better.   Let’s feed one another and a safe warm place to be.   That adult was a baby at one time and I think the adult should not be just a statistic for Social Security purposes.   Radical feminists need a change of heart and men who harass and debase women need to learn early our biological differences and respect for those differences.

Not to demonize women or men but to teach the Golden Rule.    That starts early and is a lifelong process.   We can not afford to be merciful,  to the sick, depraved or poor.   We need to do our part in making this country safe and be strong enough to lead to a better tomorrow.    No more hatred directed to anyone whether they be straight, gay,  military or civilian,  adult and child.    Can we evolve?

Make LoveNomoreWwe

358nuqh

http://www.unitedwayla.org/2012/05/rachel-fleischer-talks-about-her-movie-without-a-home-and-addressing-homelessness-in-los-angeles/

Rachel

Let’s stop scandalizing sex and avoiding real help to real people,   they are everywhere and denying this contributes to the pain caused to women around the world.