Yet again, with Harvey

two_atl_5d0 (13)

This is actually fun.  We see Oceanic  and Gulf of Mexico issues.  We have systems engourging each other.  It seems just as one system gains some validity, it falls apart.

The system has some obvious and important problems.   In 2-5 days an increase (80%) of potentiality is based upon assumption.  Assuming the path is going one place or another really matters.  Interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and how much of that crossing hits the Yucatan.   Earlier we have projections being a bit more westward,  thus the WSW component is really a best guess.   The Geometry really is hard to pin down.  Like with many projections you can go from 80%-20% and then disappearing altogether.

Looking again at this remnant of Harvey,   we see another interaction with the Yucatan.  We have a presumption of movement and if this system moves as they forecast this  movement could be problematic.  If it goes more westerly then it would basically scratch Belize as it departs the Yucatan.

If it swings more NW and WNW then where would it go? A more southerly turn would make this storm go to Depression heaven.   If this storm faces enough land mass, then the land will make a weak storm weaker.   If it goes between the Yucatan and Mexico then we have to re-work estimates as it crosses un-impeded in the Gulf of Mexico.

Is the environment more favorable in the Gulf?  And where does it end up?  A strong forward track inhibits a turn.  That is good (for us).  This is indeed the trickier proposition.   You see, Emergency Management has a hat in this rodeo and so does Home Depot and Lowes.  We would see a run on Home Depot and Lowes.

Against most important  is life and limb.  EM has a very tight juxtoposition here.  To man shelters and provide as much leeway as they can.  Hurricane or Tropical Force parties are ignorant. You could get holed up in Hotels without electricity.  After the Beer runs out, then the party just begins.   Don’t do that!   Now this is contingent upon path and strength and so it is vitally important that people listen to local TV and Emergency Management.

These are some of the EM difficulties and their’s is a difficult matter.  Only weather men or gals do this (for the most part) but I suggest that you don’t do that.  Even a stronger Tropical Storm can make a   big difference.  The center is really not the issue as much as the Storm’s periphery.

GULFIR172322215

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL ADVISORIES!  Do drive through flooding and avoid the chance of other kinds of problems.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

EM is doing you a favor.  Be mindful of that fact.


 

800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.


Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)atl_00_sfc_analysis

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php

Follow that link to get Marine products.

 

Out of the Yucatan. Next stop Campeche

The timing is what was expected.  The pressure was fairly high at 1002mb.   The winds 35-40kts sustained and movement WNW at 10-12kts.  As it goes over the Bay of Compeche, it will strengthen up to near Hurricane Strength.

And once it make it makes landfall,  its dissipation will be quite soon.  One other variable  is a continued WNW track or NW.  It’s landfall would be later but that really is not going to happen.

Satellite imagery is showing a ragged center with the circulation depicting just that.

GULFWV172201715

southmissvly

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.  HGX_loop

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090845-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall continues to fall across much of the Houston Metro
this morning. A steady moderate to heavy rain is expected to
continue throughout the morning hours and into the daytime today.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Harris, Wharton, Fort Bend,
Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty counties until 8 AM,
but may be extended depending on how the system evolves over the
next several hours. If you are under a Flash Flood Warning and are
in a safe place, do not attempt to leave. If you must be on the
roads, do not drive through flooded roadways and report any
flooding to local law enforcement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible on
Wednesday. Some of these thunderstorms may be capable of brief
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooding to the NWS or local law
enforcement if they can do so safely.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-091300-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170809T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chambers-Harris-Liberty-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-
Including the cities of Anahuac, Cleveland, Coldspring, Conroe,
Corrigan, Dayton, Houston, Humble, Katy, Liberty, Livingston,
Mont Belvieu, Onalaska, Pasadena, Shepherd, The Woodlands,
Tomball, Willis, and Winnie
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Texas...including the following
  counties...Chambers...Harris...Liberty...Montgomery...Polk and
  San Jacinto.

* Through Wednesday morning

* Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
  widespread across the watch area this evening and continue into
  Wednesday. Rainfall over the past few days has led to saturated
  soil conditions. Storms that repeatably move over the same
  locations with rainfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour will
  lead to flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway.  The water depth may be too great to allow your car to
cross safely.  Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned
quickly.  If your vehicle stalls...abandon it and seek higher
ground immediately.  Rapidly rising water may engulf your vehicle
and its occupants and sweep them away.  Move to higher ground.

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$



Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...

  Greens Bayou At U.S. Hwy 59 affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris
  Greens Bayou At Ley Road affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris


For Greens Bayou at U.S. Hwy 59...Ley Road, Minor flooding is occuring, with
Moderate flooding forecasted.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few
days.



Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

TXC201-082156-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0035.170808T1731Z-170809T0142Z/
/GBLT2.1.ER.170808T1731Z.170808T1800Z.170808T1942Z.NO/
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Greens Bayou At Ley Road.
* from this afternoon to this evening...or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0445 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise to
  near 30.4 feet by this afternoon.the river will fall below flood stage by this
  afternoon.
* At 30.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gage.



&&
                     Flood  Observed             Forecast 6 AM
Location             Stage  Stage   Day Time     Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Greens Bayou
  Ley Road             30    11.1   Tue 05 AM     16.1    4.9    3.5

images (18)

Air Quality Alert

WAC005-013-021-037-039-071-077-091800-
Benton-Columbia-Franklin-Kittitas-Klickitat-Walla Walla-Yakima-
Including the cities of Kennewick, Richland, Benton City, Prosser,
West Richland, Hanford, Dayton, Starbuck, Pasco, Connell,
Ellensburg, Cle Elum, Easton, Goldendale, White Salmon, Trout Lake,
Bickleton, Roosevelt, College Place, Walla Walla, Burbank,
Waitsburg, Prescott, Grandview, Sunnyside, Toppenish, Yakima,
Granger, Mabton, Selah, Wapato, White Swan, Zillah, Naches,
and Cliffdell
1030 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY...

The Washington State Department of Ecology has issued an Air Quality
Alert...in effect until noon PDT Saturday for the following counties:

Kittitas
Yakima
Klickitat
Benton
Franklin
Walla Walla
Columbia

A Smoke Air Quality Alert has been issued. Wildfires burning in the
region combined with forecasted conditions will cause air quality to
reach unhealthy levels.

Pollutants in smoke can cause burning eyes, runny nose, aggravate
heart and lung diseases, and aggravate other serious health
problems. Children, the elderly, and individuals with respiratory
illnesses are most at risk of serious health effects. If you
experience respiratory distress, you should speak with your
physician. Limit outdoor activities and keep children indoors if it
is smoky. Please follow medical advice if you have a heart or lung
condition.

Information about air quality is on the Washington Department of
Ecology Web site at http://www.ecy.wa.gov/air.html or call 360-407-
6000.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...Hot temperatures expected for much of the week...

.High pressure will keep hot and dry conditions over much of the
inland Northwest for much of the week.

WAZ026-027-082300-
/O.NEW.KPDT.HT.Y.0003.170808T2000Z-170811T0300Z/
Kittitas Valley-Yakima Valley-
including the cities of Ellensburg, Thorp, Naches, Sunnyside,
Toppenish, and Yakima
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Pendleton has issued a Heat
Advisory...which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM
PDT Thursday.

* HIGH TEMPERATURES...101 to 105.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Those working or spending extended periods outdoors
  will be at increased risk of heat illness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot afternoon temperatures and warm
overnight temperatures will combine to create a situation in
which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay
in an air conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check up
on relatives and neighbors.
SREF_H5__f081

Tropical Storm Franklin 08/07/2017

144055

Right now, it appears as if Franklin is at its strongest. Its core is winding up but it’s center will be torn a little as it moves into the Yucatan Peninsula and then reforming for awhile in the Southern Bay of Campeche.  After that, it is Mexico-bound.  It should not have any discernable effect on the Lower 48 states (CONUS).

There is the possibility that high winds and rough seas will be near the Southern portions of the state of Texas.  There is nothing contradicting this,  at this time.

Flooding near BWI and adjacent areas.   A few warnings possible this afternoon with severe thunderstorms and flooding.    A wide area of coverage in the Baltimore, Washington DC, and Dover areas.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-080900-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
355 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Areas of patchy fog or possible Monday morning, though should
 steadily dissipate after sunrise. An isolated thunderstorm or two
 is possible across northern Missouri this afternoon. No severe
 weather is expected with this activity.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Widespread thunderstorms will make a return by Wednesday into
 Thursday. Additional storm chances are then possible heading into
 the weekend. At this time, no severe weather or hydrological
 concerns are expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
157 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Big Creek at Blairstown affecting Cass...Henry and Johnson Counties.

  South Grand River at Urich affecting Bates...Cass and Henry
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-081857-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0165.000000T0000Z-170809T1326Z/
/BLRM7.2.ER.170806T0541Z.170806T2300Z.170808T1326Z.UU/
157 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Creek at Blairstown.
* until Wednesday morning.
* At  1:00 PM Monday the stage was 24.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Tuesday morning.
* At 23.0 feet...Flooding occurs at the west approach to the N
  Highway bridge located 0.2 miles west of Blairstown. Flooding also
  occurs across B Highway near Big Creek which is several miles
  northwest of Blairstown.
* At 20.0 feet...The west bank of the creek begins to flood.

&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Big Creek
  Blairstown      20   24.6   Mon 01 PM   23.9 this evening

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9422 3875 9416 3857 9394 3840 9384 3840 9391



$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
117 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

MOC083-101-159-081845-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FA.W.0026.000000T0000Z-170808T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henry MO-Pettis MO-Johnson MO-
117 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Henry County in west central Missouri...
  Pettis County in central Missouri...
  Johnson County in west central Missouri...

* Until 145 PM CDT Tuesday

* At 115 PM CDT, Numerous roads in the warned area remain closed due
  to the torrential rain that fell Saturday night. Check local
  department of transportation websites for more information on road
  closures, and drive carefully, especially at night.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Sedalia, Warrensburg, Clinton, Windsor, Knob Noster, Holden,
  Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, Leeton, Urich, Green Ridge,
  Calhoun, Deepwater, Montrose, Creighton, Chilhowee, Kingsville,
  Houstonia, Whiteman Afb and Coal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9407 3857 9407 3857 9412 3866 9413
      3892 9411 3891 9384 3894 9383 3894 9336
      3885 9315 3853 9316 3854 9328 3852 9330
      3851 9352 3821 9353

$$

Leighton


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
850 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Lamine River near Otterville affecting Cooper County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Blackwater River at Valley City affecting Johnson and Pettis
  Counties.

  Blackwater River near Blue Lick affecting Cooper and Saline
  Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC101-159-081350-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0166.000000T0000Z-170810T0138Z/
/VLYM7.3.ER.170806T0334Z.170807T0630Z.170809T0138Z.NR/
850 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Blackwater River at Valley City.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 32.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Tuesday evening.
* At 31.0 feet...Extensive flooding of rural property and many roads
  occurs.
* At 25.0 feet...County Highway E near Valley City and Highway 23
  near the Perry State Wildlife Area are under water.
* At 22.0 feet...Woodlands and farm fields along the river begin to
  flood.


&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Blackwater River
  Valley City     22   32.5   Mon 08 AM   31.2 this afternoon

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9342 3882 9361 3882 9368 3891 9361 3899 9348 -x