Hurricane Irma go West!!!~

mfl

This current fix (position) is helpful for me.   My daughter resides in Palm Beach and while Irma’s tentacles stretch encompasses most of the southern 2-3rds of Florida, it would be beneficial for me and a great many of Florida.

214634_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Latest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago
indicate that Irma’s intensity continues to fluctuate, and the
winds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure
was 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.

The environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4
status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could
result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The
interaction of the hurricane’s circulation with Cuba will probably
not result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC
forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.
After landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear
should induce gradual weakening.

Satellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has
slowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at
about 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the
next 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of
Irma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma
should reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin
to move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida
peninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and
that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact
track of the center. This afternoon’s NHC forecast was again
adjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF
model and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU
Superensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant
storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has
increased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is
possible in this area. This is a life-threatening situation.
Everyone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and
property from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from
local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. The highest amounts are expected
over the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma
will likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.1N 76.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 35.0N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 13/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND

=============================================================

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GULFWV172512145

214634 (1)

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…
…HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 345 MI…555 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…925 MB…27.32 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward for east coast of
Florida to Sebastian Inlet, and along the west coast of the
peninsula northward to Anna Maria Island.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast
of Florida to Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of Venice to the Anclote
River, including Tampa Bay, and from Ponce Inlet to the Flagler/
Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* North of Venice to Anclote River
* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna
Maria Island
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest
is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the
central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to
remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the
southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected
to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast
of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of
southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or
early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central
and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos…additional 1 to 3
inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast
Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward…4 to 8
inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North
Carolina…4 to 7 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern
Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday
morning across south Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

========================================================================

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FOR EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO SEBASTIAN INLET… AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF VENICE TO THE ANCLOTE
RIVER… INCLUDING TAMPA BAY… AND FROM PONCE INLET TO THE FLAGLER/
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO VENICE
* FLORIDA KEYS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF VENICE TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY… CIEGO DE AVILA… SANCTI
SPIRITUS… AND
VILLA CLARA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO… HOLGUIN… LAS TUNAS AND MATANZAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO… HOLGUIN… AND LAS TUNAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE… IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS… CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA… FLORIDA… AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 76.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT……. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…….100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT…….160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..510NE 180SE 60SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 76.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 78.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT…170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT…170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT…GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT…170NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.7N 81.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT…GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT…190NE 170SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.6N 83.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT…170NE 170SE 150SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 35.0N 85.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W…POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

=======================================================================

 

HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1
NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135
KTS…155 MPH…250 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9)

CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)

BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)

GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) X(24)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 5(33) 1(34)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) 1(29)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) 1(43)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)

KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 62(64) 3(67) X(67)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) 1(30)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13)

WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 8(66) 1(67)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) 1(24)
WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)

MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 65(69) 1(70) X(70)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 2(32) X(32)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) 2(73) 1(74)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 76(84) 1(85) X(85)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 2(52) X(52)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 67(82) X(82) X(82)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) X(47) X(47)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24)

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 73(90) X(90) X(90)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 61(62) 1(63) X(63)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 61(93) X(93) X(93)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 60(64) 1(65) X(65)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 49(85) X(85) X(85)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) X(47) X(47)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25)

PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 31(37) 48(85) X(85) 1(86)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) X(48) X(48)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 44(58) 28(86) X(86) X(86)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 34(45) X(45) X(45)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21)

W PALM BEACH 34 2 5( 7) 28(35) 43(78) 11(89) X(89) X(89)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 19(48) X(48) X(48)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20)

FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 11(14) 44(58) 29(87) 5(92) X(92) X(92)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 11(11) 36(47) 9(56) X(56) X(56)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25)

MIAMI FL 34 3 20(23) 50(73) 20(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95)
MIAMI FL 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 40(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38)

HOMESTEAD ARB 34 4 30(34) 48(82) 14(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 2( 2) 35(37) 35(72) 5(77) X(77) X(77)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) 10(10) 31(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45)

MARATHON FL 34 4 50(54) 41(95) 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MARATHON FL 50 X 6( 6) 72(78) 17(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
MARATHON FL 64 X 1( 1) 50(51) 28(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81)

KEY WEST FL 34 3 35(38) 53(91) 6(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 3( 3) 59(62) 20(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 35(35) 28(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64)

NAPLES FL 34 1 6( 7) 44(51) 41(92) 5(97) X(97) X(97)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 56(65) 17(82) X(82) X(82)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 21(64) X(64) X(64)

FT MYERS FL 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 51(83) 13(96) X(96) X(96)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 30(78) X(78) X(78)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 34(60) X(60) X(60)

VENICE FL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 47(60) 26(86) X(86) X(86)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 40(62) X(62) X(62)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) X(46) X(46)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 51(86) X(86) X(86)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 56(62) X(62) X(62)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 64(75) X(75) X(75)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 1(47) X(47)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 4(48) X(48)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 2(50) X(50)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 1(38) X(38)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 1(38) X(38)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) X(27)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)

BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16)

WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13)
WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 5( 8) 13(21) 24(45) 11(56) X(56) X(56)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 20 10(30) 6(36) 5(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ANDROS 34 83 2(85) 1(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
ANDROS 50 11 4(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
ANDROS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GREAT EXUMA 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

SAN SALVADOR 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

HAVANA 34 2 18(20) 33(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
HAVANA 50 X 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

ISLE OF PINES 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)

CIENFUEGOS 34 15 63(78) 7(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
CIENFUEGOS 50 2 26(28) 10(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

CAMAGUEY 34 92 1(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
CAMAGUEY 50 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
CAMAGUEY 64 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MONTEGO BAY 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X(4)

============================================================================

 

IRMA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

.HURRICANE IRMA

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

FLZ069-070-073>078-168-172>174-090600-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ054-059-064-160-162-165-265-090600-
/O.UPG.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ063-066>068-071-072-090600-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ056>058-061-255-260-262-090600-
/O.UPG.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ155-090600-
/O.UPG.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017$$

FLZ047-141-147-090600-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ050-151-090600-
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ041-044>046-052-053-144-251-090600-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

$$

FLZ043-139-142-148-149-239-242-248-249-090600-
/O.EXA.KNHC.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
547 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 2017

===========================================================

http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl#hti

You can find  more information in the link above.   PLEASE DO THAT!!

And right behind that,  Hurricane Jose.  Pray for your loved-ones and what has turned out to be,  a virtual nightmare!!!

Be safe Rachel!

AMX_loop (2)

Hurricane Local Statement

Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 39
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-090530-

Hurricane Irma Local Statement Advisory Number 39
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL112017
530 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

This product covers South Florida

**MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
THIS WEEKEND**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Broward, Coastal Collier, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal
      Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland Collier, Inland
      Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and Metro Miami-Dade
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Glades, Hendry, Inland
      Broward, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, and Metro Palm Beach

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 340 miles southeast of Miami FL or about 430 miles
      southeast of Naples FL
    - 22.1N 76.5W
    - Storm Intensity 155 mph
    - Movement West or 280 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Category 4 Hurricane Irma continues to move west northwest across
the southern Bahamas this afternoon, and will impact South Florida
beginning Saturday. Hurricane Irma continues to remain a severe and
extremely dangerous threat for all of South Florida. Direct major
hurricane landfall is likely somewhere across South Florida this
weekend.

The primary concerns continue to be for catastrophic major hurricane
force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Additional concerns
include the potential for flooding rainfall, isolated tornadoes,
significant beach erosion and surf, and life-threatening rip currents.

Depending on the eventual track of Hurricane Irma, flash flooding is
also possible around portions of Lake Okeechobee in association with a
possible overwash or minor to moderate overtopping of the Herbert
Hoover Dike. Interests near Lake Okeechobee should heed the orders of
local and state emergency management officials.

Preparations to protect life and property are strongly urged to be
completed by tonight. All persons in South Florida should take shelter
by early Saturday morning. Hurricane Irma is a potentially deadly
situation and should not be taken lightly. Everyone is urged to
exercise extreme caution in order to protect their lives.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across coastal Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and Collier
counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant to extensive impacts across the immediate coast of Broward
and Palm Beach counties.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across all of South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple
      places. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets, parking lots and underpasses become submerged. Driving
      conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with
      some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Broward County: Mandatory evacuation ordered for areas east of
Federal Highway, barrier islands, low-lying areas, and mobile homes.

Collier County: Mandatory evacuations of locations south and west of US
41, and those living in mobile homes.

Miami-Dade County: Mandatory evacuation of mobile homes, evacuation
zone A, zone B, portions of zone C, and barrier islands which
include Bal Harbour, Bay Harbour Islands, Golden Beach, Indian Creek
Village, Miami Beach, North Bay Village, Sunny Isles Beach, and
Surfside.

Palm Beach County: Mandatory evacuation of zones A and B, as well as
mobile homes and flood-prone areas. Voluntary evacuation of zone C.
Effective at 10 AM Friday.

For further information, contact 311 for Miami-Dade and Broward counties
and 211 across the rest of South Florida.

If evacuating away from the area or relocating to a nearby shelter,
leave early before weather conditions become hazardous.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Check-in with your emergency points of contact among family, friends,
and workmates. Inform them of your status and well-being. Let them
know how you intend to ride out the storm and when you plan to
check-in again.

Keep cell phones well charged and handy. Also, cell phone chargers
for automobiles can be helpful after the storm. Locate your chargers
and keep them with your cell phone.

In emergencies it is best to remain calm. Stay informed and focused
on the situation at hand. Exercise patience with those you encounter.
Be a good neighbor and help others.

If relocating to a nearby shelter or to the home of a family member
or friend, drive with extra caution, especially on secondary roads.
Remember, many bridges and causeways will be closed once higher winds
arrive. Also, if you encounter water covering the road, seek an
alternate route. Always obey official road signs for closures and
detours.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$



 

Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Miami FL
538 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068>075-168-172>174-090800-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0005.170908T2138Z-170912T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-Inland Broward-
Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Mainland Monroe-
Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-
Far South Miami-Dade-
538 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the
  following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Collier, Coastal
  Miami-Dade, Coastal Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland
  Broward, Inland Collier, Inland Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe,
  Metro Broward, Metro Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach.

* Through Monday evening.

* Excessive rainfall from Hurricane Irma which will lead to
  possible widespread flooding.

* Impacts: Flood waters entering structures, significant to major
  street flooding with road closures, areas of rapid inundation at
  underpasses, low lying, and poor drainage areas, and possible
  evacuations and rescues due to flood waters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$


 

Hurricane Warning

Irma Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 39
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL112017
520 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

FLZ068-090530-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Metro Palm Beach-
520 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Boca West
    - Palm Springs
    - Florida Gardens
    - Palm Beach Gardens

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Sunday morning
          until early Monday morning

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
          major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
          equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
        - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
          devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
          to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
        - Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
          Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
          loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
          shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
          roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
          homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
          projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
          months.
        - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
          and roadway signs blown over.
        - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Widespread power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 8-12 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High
        - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
          major flooding where peak rainfall totals well exceed
          amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation.
          Rescues and emergency evacuations are likely.
        - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
          extensive flooding rain impacts.
        - Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take
          action may result in serious injury or significant loss of
          life. If flood related watches and warnings are issued,
          heed recommended actions. Poor decisions may result in
          being cut off or needlessly risk lives. If vulnerable,
          relocate to safe shelter on higher ground before flood
          waters arrive.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Flood control systems and barriers may
          become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets, parking lots and underpasses become
          submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road
          and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is favorable for tornadoes

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate
        - The tornado threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - When implementing emergency plans, include should include a
          reasonable threat for scattered tornadoes.
        - To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of
          significant tornado impacts.
        - Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to
          shelter quickly if a tornado approaches.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
          spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
          communications failures.
        - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
          homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
          or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
          about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Florida  ----------------------


 

 

Advertisements

Harvey inland – Still Dangerous

152744

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.9N 97.3W
ABOUT 25 MI…35 KM W OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas
has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Texas coast has been replaced with a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

Hurricane warnings continue for inland areas near the center of
Harvey. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the
center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland near the core
of Harvey. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

============================================================================

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

============================================================================

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

HURRICANE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR INLAND AREAS NEAR THE CENTER OF
HARVEY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 97.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 97.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 97.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.1N 97.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.2N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.7N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.7N 96.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 96.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 30.5N 96.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 97.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

===========================================================================

 

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has been inland for about 12 hours and weakening is under
way. Doppler radar data indicate that winds have decreased to 65 kt,
and that is the intensity used in this advisory. Since Harvey is
over land, a continued weakening is anticipated, and the NHC
forecast uses the trend provided by the SHIPS decay model. However,
if a portion of Harvey’s circulation remains over the Gulf of
Mexico, the cyclone could weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

The hurricane is moving very slowly toward the north at about 2 kt.
Harvey is embedded within very light steering currents, and global
models keep this weak flow in place for the next several days. Based
on this pattern, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5
days over southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. The only
agreement among the track guidance is that Harvey is certainly not
going anywhere fast.

This slow motion of the cyclone is expected to exacerbate the
potential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least
through the middle of next week.

Please note that hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCUs) have been
discontinued due to the degradation of Harvey’s center on radar.

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey’s winds have begun to weaken, life-threatening
hazards will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Thursday.
Please heed the advice of local officials and do not drive into
flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National
Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for
more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall
totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to recede
due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore
flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
12H 27/0000Z 29.1N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 27/1200Z 29.2N 97.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 29.0N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1200Z 28.7N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1200Z 29.5N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1200Z 30.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

============================================================================

 

HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS…75 MPH…120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)

FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)

CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)

JASPER TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11)

GALVESTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 2(17)

HOUSTON TX 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 4(19) 3(22) 2(24)

AUSTIN TX 34 16 18(34) 8(42) 3(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48)
AUSTIN TX 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 17 20(37) 10(47) 2(49) 1(50) 1(51) 1(52)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)

FREEPORT TX 34 6 4(10) 3(13) 5(18) 4(22) 2(24) 2(26)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14)

MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)

PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15)

MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)

HARLINGEN TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2(

=======================================================================

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
148 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ235>238-245>247-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ234-270200-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-233-270200-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220-221-223-225>227-231-232-241>244-270200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

============================================================================

GULFWV172381745

 

152744_current_wind_sm

images (24)Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
271030-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Harvey made landfall last night and has moved inland very slowly.
The majority of the rainbands continue across the central Texas
coast with this region this morning getting brushed but the outer
bands. A Tornado Watch continues for Jefferson... Hardin... and
Orange counties in southeast Texas. Rains will continue through
the day and into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
Harvey is expected to bring bands of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the region through the weekend and into next
week. Rainfall will be heavy at times and flooding of some
locations is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

$$


 

Severe Weather Statement

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

LAC019-261800-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170826T1800Z/
Calcasieu LA-
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH...

At 1244 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Carlyss, or 8
miles southwest of Sulphur, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Vinton and Edgerly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3032 9365 3037 9341 3005 9335 3005 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 162DEG 25KT 3014 9345

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Jones



 

Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

LAC019-261800-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170826T1800Z/
Calcasieu LA-
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CALCASIEU PARISH...

At 1244 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Carlyss, or 8
miles southwest of Sulphur, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Vinton and Edgerly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3032 9365 3037 9341 3005 9335 3005 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 162DEG 25KT 3014 9345

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

Jones



 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

TORNADO WATCH 468 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC019-023-270700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0468.170826T1745Z-170827T0700Z/

LA
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

CALCASIEU            CAMERON
$$



 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-270601-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0096.170829T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.1.ER.170829T0000Z.170830T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* from Monday evening until further notice...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  9:45 AM Saturday the stage was 22.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to
  rise to near 24.5 feet by Wednesday morning. This forecast is based
  upon 72 hours of expected precipitation. Further rises based upon
  continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 25.0 feet...Lowest roads beside the river
  flood around Deweyville and subject to being closed. In addition,
  low-lying roads in Southwest Beauregard Parish are flooded
  including Robert Clark Road. Flooding occurs on the south side of
  Niblett Bluff Park with access roads to camp houses cut off around
  the park. Access roads to the river in Northeastern Orange County
  become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 24.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding will
  occur.
* Impact...At stages near 23.0 feet...The river is at bankfull
  stage.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 9363 3011 9364 3011 9378 3031 9381
      3062 9378

$$

270601-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0097.170830T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/NSBT2.1.ER.170830T0600Z.170831T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier.
* from late Tuesday night until further notice...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 10:15 AM Saturday the stage was 3.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and
  continue to rise to near 4.6 feet by early Thursday morning.
  This forecast is based upon 72 hours of expected precipitation.
  Further rises based upon continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Water is about two feet over
  portions of Four Oaks Ranch Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9404 3008 9401 3008 9413 3033 9421

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

LAC019-270602-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0094.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OTBL1.1.FS.170826T1136Z.170829T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  5:00 AM Saturday the stage was 3.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to
  rise to near 5.0 feet by Tuesday morning. This forecast is based upon
  storm surge and 72 hours of expected precipitation. Further rises based upon
  continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Water over lowest portions of
  Goos Ferry Road. Cars should be moved to higher ground.
* Impact...At stages near 4.0 feet...Minor flooding of Goos Ferry
  Road will occur.
* Impact...At stages near 3.5 feet...Ponding of water on low spots
  along Goos Ferry Road will occur.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 9314 3031 9303 3025 9308 3019 9321 3030 9329

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana..
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier

LAC019-270601-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LCHL1.1.FS.170826T1637Z.170829T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 3.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue
  to rise to near 5.5 feet by Tuesday morning. This forecast is based upon
  storm surge and 72 hours of expected precipitation. Further rises based upon
  continued rainfall are possible.
* Impact...At stages near 6.0 feet...Significant flooding of
  numerous recreational camps and homes will occur. River Road and
  much of Mims Road are impassable.
* Impact...At stages near 5.5 feet...Access roads including River
  Road in North Lake Charles and Mims Road in Westlake become
  impassable to some vehicles.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...River Road in North Lake
  Charles and Mims Road in Westlake are flooded. Extensive marshland
  flooding will occur.
* Impact...At stages near 4.5 feet...Water covers portions of River
  Road in north Lake Charles.
* Impact...At stages near 4.0 feet...Minor marshland flooding
  occurs. Flooding also begins on River Road in north Lake Charles.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 9309 3029 9303 3014 9328 3017 9335 3035 9332

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1054 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Louisiana...

  West Fork Of The Calcasieu River At Sam Houston Jones State Park

LAC019-270554-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FL.W.0100.170829T1200Z-170830T1800Z/
/LCRL1.1.ER.170829T1200Z.170829T1200Z.170829T1800Z.NO/
1054 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the West Fork Of The Calcasieu River At Sam Houston Jones State
  Park.
* from Tuesday morning to Wednesday afternoon...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 10:00 AM Saturday the stage was 2.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
  Tuesday morning. This forecast is based upon 72 hours of expected
  precipitation. Further rises based upon continued rainfall are
  possible.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Low spots on South Perkins
  Ferry Road have water on it. Water is over some boat docks on South
  Perkins Ferry Road and over boat ramps at Sam Houston Jones State
  Park. Extensive marshland flooding will occur upstream and
  downstream from the park.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 9323 3028 9323 3028 9331 3030 9332 3032 9329

$$



Hurricane Local Statement

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 25
TXZ229>234-239>247-262345-

Hurricane Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX  AL092017
1035 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This product covers SOUTH TEXAS

**HARVEY REMAINS A WEAK CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Duval,
      and McMullen
    - The Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning have been
      cancelled and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
      Kleberg, Nueces, and San Patricio
    - The Hurricane Warning has been cancelled and a Tropical Storm
      Warning has been issued for Aransas, Bee, Calhoun, Jim Wells,
      Live Oak and Refugio


* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bee, Jim Wells,
      Kleberg, Live Oak, Nueces, and San Patricio
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Victoria
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Aransas, Calhoun, and Refugio
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Goliad

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 60 miles west-northwest of Port O`Connor TX
    - 28.9N 97.3W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North or 350 degrees at 2 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Harvey remains a Category 1 hurricane over Goliad and
Victoria Counties where Hurricane Warning continues. Hurricane Warning
has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning for the coastal
counties of the Middle Texas coast, as well as the inland counties of
the Coastal Bend, and the coastal waters. Harvey will continue to move
slowly northwest today across South Texas and become a Tropical Storm.
Harvey will slow down and stall northwest of Cuero tonight and then
drift southeast back toward the coast Sunday through Tuesday.

Hurricane force wind gusts will continue to affect portions of Goliad
and Victoria counties, mainly through early this afternoon. Meanwhile,
tropical storm force winds will continue to impact portions of South
Texas generally east of Highway 281 for most of today.

Catastrophic life-threatening flooding is still expected due to the
heavy rainfall that is expected over the next several days. Storm
total rainfall accumulations will be as much as 20 to 30 inches of
rainfall with isolated 40 inches across eastern portions of South
Texas, mainly east of a line from Rockport to Goliad. West of that
area up to highway 16, generally 5 to 15 inches of rainfall will be
possible with isolated 20 inches possible. West of highway 16,
generally 5 inches or less of rainfall is expected.

Storm surge inundation will remain from 4 to 7 feet from Port Aransas
to Port Lavaca today. Flooding from storm surge inundation will
gradually subside through the day. South of Port Aransas, offshore
winds have provided a significant decrease in tide levels.

Isolated tornadoes will be possible along and to the east of a line
from Port Aransas to Beeville.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for the following areas:

  - Port Aransas
  - Aransas County
  - Refugio County
  - San Patricio County
  - Victoria County
  - Calhoun County

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads area, mainly east of Highway
281. Remain well guarded against life-threatening flood waters having
possible catastrophic impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
      in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
      systems and barriers may become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
      routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
      with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
      dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
      or washed out.

* SURGE:
Impacts from the surge event are now unfolding across the Middle Texas
coast between Port Aransas and Port Lavaca. Tide inundation levels will
continue to be from 4 to 7 feet AGL. Remain well away from
life-threatening surge having additional extensive impacts. If
realized, these impacts include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads area, mainly east of Interstate
37. If realized, these impacts include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across SOUTH TEXAS, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the
Victoria Crossroads. If realized, these impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across SOUTH TEXAS, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

RECOVERY PHASE - Do not return to evacuated areas until it is safe.
Listen for the all-clear signal from local authorities.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Corpus Christi TX around 1 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

89


sa tx

sat2

sa32s2afpc

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

   Atascosa River At Whitsett affecting Live Oak County
   Aransas River Near Skidmore affecting Bee County
   San Antonio River At Goliad affecting Calhoun...Goliad...Refugio and
   Victoria Counties
   Coleto Creek At Arnold Road Crossing affecting Goliad and Victoria
   Counties
   Coleto Creek At Highway 59, Victoria affecting Victoria County
   Guadalupe River At Victoria affecting Victoria County
   Guadalupe River Near Bloomington affecting Calhoun...Refugio and
   Victoria Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
   Mission River At Refugio affecting Refugio County

.Recent and anticipated rainfall over the area will bring the
aforementioned rivers above flood stage for the next few days.
These forecasts are based on 72 hours of forecast rainfall
over the area, and are subject to change with rainfall
forecasts. Also additional rainfall beyond 72 hours will
result in possibly even higher rises.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local TV and radio
stations, or cable TV outlets, for the latest weather
information, as additional rainfall could affect crest
forecasts.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our AHPS page at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=crp

&&

TXC175-469-270942-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FL.W.0021.170826T1701Z-170831T0503Z/
/SCDT2.3.ER.170826T1701Z.170828T1800Z.170830T1303Z.NO/
1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for the Coleto Creek At Arnold Road
Crossing.
* until Wednesday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 9:45 AM Saturday, the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage by this afternoon, and continue
  to rise to near 31.0 feet by early Monday afternoon. The river will
  fall below flood stage by Wednesday morning.

&&

 Below are the latest river stages and stage forecasts:

                      FLD LATEST               FORECAST 6 AM LST
LOCATION              STG  STG  DAY  TIME   Sun  Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu

Coleto Creek
  Arnold Road Crossing 15  10.4 Sat 10 AM  29.5 30.2 25.8 15.3 10.1

&&

LAT...LON 2888 9729 2893 9721 2874 9710 2871 9722

$$


 

Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

   Atascosa River At Whitsett affecting Live Oak County
   Aransas River Near Skidmore affecting Bee County
   San Antonio River At Goliad affecting Calhoun...Goliad...Refugio and
   Victoria Counties
   Coleto Creek At Arnold Road Crossing affecting Goliad and Victoria
   Counties
   Coleto Creek At Highway 59, Victoria affecting Victoria County
   Guadalupe River At Victoria affecting Victoria County
   Guadalupe River Near Bloomington affecting Calhoun...Refugio and
   Victoria Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
   Mission River At Refugio affecting Refugio County

.Recent and anticipated rainfall over the area will bring the
aforementioned rivers above flood stage for the next few days.
These forecasts are based on 72 hours of forecast rainfall
over the area, and are subject to change with rainfall
forecasts. Also additional rainfall beyond 72 hours will
result in possibly even higher rises.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, local TV and radio
stations, or cable TV outlets, for the latest weather
information, as additional rainfall could affect crest
forecasts.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our AHPS page at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=crp

&&

TXC057-175-391-469-270942-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FL.W.0022.170828T1041Z-000000T0000Z/
/GLIT2.3.ER.170828T1041Z.170830T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

The Flood Warning continues for the San Antonio River At Goliad.
* from late Sunday night, until further notice, or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 9 AM Saturday, the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast: Rise above flood stage late Sunday night, and continue to
  rise to near 39.6 feet by Wednesday morning.
* At 40.0 feet, major flooding occurs. Nearly all of Goliad State Park
  floods, except the headquarters area and mission, causing major
  damage to the park. Many secondary and primary roads and low bridges
  flood. The flow is within a few feet of the lowest residences in the
  south edge of Goliad and Highway 183. Hundreds of livestock are cut
  off, and can potentially drown in the flood plain below Falls City to
  the Guadalupe River confluence.

&&

 Below are the latest river stages and stage forecasts:

                      FLD LATEST               FORECAST 6 AM LST
LOCATION              STG  STG  DAY  TIME   Sun  Mon  Tue  Wed  Thu

San Antonio River
  Goliad               25  10.1 Sat 09 AM  17.4 25.7 36.6 39.6 38.0

&&

LAT...LON 2871 9772 2878 9762 2855 9690 2848 9692
      2863 9759

$$


 

Hurricane Warning

Harvey Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX  AL092017
1017 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

TXZ233-262330-
/O.CON.KCRP.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CAN.KCRP.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Goliad-
1017 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Goliad

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 50-65 mph with gusts to 80 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Sunday
          afternoon

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High
        - The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
        - Remain braced against the reasonable threat for hurricane
          force wind of 75 mph of equivalent Category 1 intensity.
        - To be safe, efforts should fully focus on protecting life.
          Properties remain subject to extensive wind impacts.
        - Now is the time to urgently hide from the wind. Failure to
          adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
          life. Remain sheltered until the hazardous wind subsides.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 18-24 inches, with
          locally higher amounts

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - Emergency considerations should include a threat of
          flooding.
        - Be safe and remain ready to protect against flooding rain
          impacts.
        - If flood related watches and warnings are in effect, heed
          recommended actions.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        - Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
          and rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
          banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
          creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood
          control systems and barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
          with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - Emergency considerations should include a reasonable threat
          for tornadoes.
        - Be safe and remain ready to protect against tornado
          impacts. Stay informed.
        - Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
          approaches, quickly move to the safest place within your
          shelter.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
852 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  San Antonio River Near Elmendorf Affecting Bexar and Wilson Counties
  San Antonio River near Floresville Affecting Karnes and Wilson Counties
  San Antonio River Near near Falls City Affecting Karnes County
  San Antonio River at Hwy 72 nr Runge Affecting Goliad and Karnes Counties
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain for the next 72 hours. If actual rainfall varies
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary.

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC175-255-270751-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0028.170827T1415Z-000000T0000Z/
/SRRT2.3.ER.170827T1415Z.170830T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
852 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

 The flood warning continues for
  the San Antonio River at Hwy 72 nr Runge.
* At  8:15 AM Saturday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 27.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to
  rise to near 46.2 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* Imapct...At 39.0 feet...Water is well into the floodplain. No impacts to roads
  or structures. Cattle and farm equipment should have been removed from the
  floodplain or face the threat of being cut off lost.


&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
 Hwy 72 nr Runge    22   27   10.8   Sat 08 AM  24.9  39.9  45.5  46.0  42.7


&&

LAT...LON 2883 9779 2890 9772 2876 9764 2872 9770


$$



 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
621 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-271130-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
621 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas and the Middle
Texas Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible within rain bands from
Hurricane Harvey.

Hurricane warnings continue this morning for much of the area and
will likely be replaced by Tropical Storm warnings as they are
cancelled today.

Very heavy rainfall will continue today and tonight with 20 to 30
inches of rain possible with isolated 40 inch totals north of a
line from Rockport to Goliad.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Although Harvey will weaken, it is expected to meander near South
Texas over the next couple of days, resulting in a continuance of
heavy rainfall, flash flooding and strong winds. Harvey is
forecast to begin to moving away from South Texas early next
week, gradually bringing diminishing rainfall chances through the
rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is anticipated. Spotter safety is of highest
concern, but any information that can be relayed is appreciated.

$$


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
427 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...Life threatening flooding from excessive rainfall expected
across South Texas Today through the weekend...

.Heavy rains from Hurricane Harvey will continue across much of
South Texas through the weekend. Catastrophic and life
threatening flooding from excessive rainfall is expected as
Hurricane Harvey meanders slowly through the region through
Tuesday. A Flash Flood watch is now in effect through Tuesday
evening.

TXZ230>234-240>247-261730-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170830T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Duval-Jim Wells-Kleberg-
Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Calliham, Cross, Loma Alta, Tilden,
George West, Three Rivers, Beeville, Goliad, Victoria, Freer,
Benavides, San Diego, Alice, Orange Grove, Kingsville,
Corpus Christi, Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton,
Mathis, Rockport, Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
427 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of south Texas, including the following areas,
  Aransas, Bee, Calhoun, Duval, Goliad, Jim Wells, Kleberg, Live
  Oak, McMullen, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio, and Victoria.

* Through Tuesday evening

* Heavy rains from Harvey will impact much of South Texas late
  this week into the weekend. A prolonged heavy rain and flash
  flood threat may evolve over parts of the area. The heaviest
  rains are most likely to occur east of Interstate 37. Rainfall
  amounts of 20 to 30 inches are expected north and east of a
  line from Port Aransas to Goliad with isolated higher amounts
  possible. 10 to 20 inches of rain are likely south and west of
  this line to Hwy 281. Lower rainfall amounts will occur
  further to the west, but significant flooding will still be
  possible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$



Harvey is getting an attitude now!

The Pressure took a precipitous drop and this system is a major Hurricane with winds sustained at 95kts/110mph.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Multiple observing platforms indicate that Harvey’s structure is
evolving this morning. The hurricane has developed concentric
eyewalls, as observed in data from the WSR-88D Doppler radars in
Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane reported double wind maxima with diameters of 12 and
28 n mi. The aircraft data indicate that the central pressure has
continued to fall–now down to 947 mb–but the maximum winds have
not increased further. This discrepancy is not surprising given
hurricane’s current structure.

Intensity forecasts become complicated once a hurricane develops
concentric eyewalls, and fluctuations in intensity become more
likely. If an eyewall replacement occurs, then Harvey’s intensity
could decrease a bit while at the same time the overall wind field
increases in size. However, the hurricane remains in an environment
for intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity
is still possible before the center reaches land. But in the end,
the hurricane’s exact intensity at landfall does not change the
fact that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland
across much of southern and southeastern Texas. Slow weakening is
expected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not
expected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to
maintain tropical storm status through Wednesday.

Harvey has not quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/9 kt. Strong mid-level ridging building over the
western United States is still expected to impede Harvey’s forward
motion in the coming days, and the track guidance continues to show
the hurricane meandering or stalling near or just inland of the
Texas coast in 36-48 hours. Harvey could begin moving slowly
eastward on days 4 and 5 due to the influence of a mid-level
shortwave trough digging southward over the upper Midwest, but at
this time it is too early to say whether the center will definitely
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
tonight, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations should be
rushed to completion in the warning areas as tropical-storm-force
winds are arriving on the coast, and conditions will continue to
deteriorate through the rest of today and tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 26.7N 96.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 27.6N 96.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.4N 97.3W 90 KT 105 MPH…INLAND
36H 27/0000Z 28.8N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 28.3N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 30/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND

============================================================================

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 96.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of
the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward
speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre
Island recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday.  During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana.  Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are likely just beginning in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are likely to begin within the hurricane
warning area later today or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... 
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  96.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  96.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  95.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.6N  96.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.4N  97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N  97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.9N  97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.3N  96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N  95.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N  94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N  96.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TCVAT4

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ237-238-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-252300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ191-206-252300-
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

click about and see a vast array of products to keep you busy.

Harvey is a complex system,  with a varying profile, along with two centers. They most likely has two areas of rotation.  So with in mind, pay attention closely to this system

153146

Harvey for 200!

Harvey may have reached it’s minimum central pressure at 974mb.  Winds

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

…HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE TEXAS
COAST…
…LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.2N 94.6W
ABOUT 250 MI…400 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI…400 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 94.6 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday
night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or
just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. While Harvey has changed little in strength over
the past several hours, strengthening is expected to resume later
tonight, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday and Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday. These conditions are likely to persist into Saturday in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisories at 1200 AM CDT and 200 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

======================================================================

 

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IN ADDITION…INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 94.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 94.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 94.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…140NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 94.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

============================================================================

 

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Harvey’s rapid intensification seems to have slowed for the moment,
as an eye seen earlier in satellite imagery has lost definition
during the past few hours. In addition, reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that 700-mb flight level
winds are in the 75-80 kt range, with reliable surface wind
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer remaining
near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure
has slowly fallen to 973 mb inside the 16 n mi wide eye. Based on
these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt, and this could be a
little conservative.

Harvey has turned a little to the left since the last advisory with
the initial motion now 315/9. A mid-level anticyclone over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Harvey generally
northwestward with a decreasing forward speed for the next 36-48 h,
with the center now forecast to make landfall on the middle Texas
coast in about 36 h. This part of the new forecast track has been
nudged a little to the left based mainly on the initial position
and motion. After landfall, the cyclone is likely to get stuck
between the Gulf anticyclone and a stronger anticyclone over the
western United States, with little motion likely from 48-96 h.
A slow eastward motion appears likely by 120 h due to the influence
of a trough in the westerlies digging into the eastern United
States. There is some spread in the guidance at that time, with
the GFS showing Harvey drifting slowly eastward and the ECMWF
showing a faster motion. The new forecast track splits this
difference of 5-day forecasts and lies near the consensus models.

It is unclear why the intensification has slowed, although it is
possibly due to some dry air seen earlier wrapping around the north
side of the core convection. Otherwise, Harvey remains in an
favorable environment for further strengthening with low vertical
shear and high oceanic heat content. The intensity forecast will
use the scenario that rapid intensification will resume tonight,
with Harvey becoming a major hurricane before landfall in Texas.
After landfall, the intensity forecast is based on the scenario that
Harvey will weaken over land, but it will remain close enough to
the coast so that the weakening will be slower than normal. Thus,
the forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm from 72-120 h.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 25.2N 94.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W 100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND

====================================================================

WTNT84 KNHC 250238
TCVAT4

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1038 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ237-238-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

=====================================================================

 

HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS…85 MPH…140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

The link below will help with where the weather and particular from Far-South, Texas to the areas around Galveston, Houston and the Western Louisiana.

https://wordpress.com/post/stlluna7.wordpress.com/9621

US

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)

STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 12(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 13(23)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 15(29)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 10(25)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 13(33)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 15(35)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 12(26) 20(46) 12(58)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 13(27)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 5(17)

FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 11(34)
FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 10(21) 14(35) 12(47)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14)
LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 12(25) 16(41) 13(54)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 10(19)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9)

JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 10(22) 11(33) 9(42)
JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 12(32) 14(46) 8(54)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16)
KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 7(19) 13(32) 17(49) 9(58)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 10(22)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 11(12) 26(38) 9(47) 17(64) 12(76) 5(81)
GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) 13(32) 10(42)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 8(22)

HOUSTON TX 34 1 6( 7) 35(42) 12(54) 15(69) 9(78) 3(81)
HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) 9(27) 5(32)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12)

AUSTIN TX 34 1 2( 3) 29(32) 19(51) 12(63) 5(68) 1(69)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20)
AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) 43(47) 15(62) 9(71) 3(74) X(74)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) 1(29)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 2 35(37) 31(68) 6(74) 11(85) 5(90) 1(91)
FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 14(34) 15(49) 7(56)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 11(26) 5(31)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 9 62(71) 7(78) 2(80) 8(88) 5(93) 1(94)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 16(35) 20(55) 8(63)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) 15(31) 10(41)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 9(30) 16(46) 16(62) 8(70)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 11(21) 10(31)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16)

MATAGORDA TX 34 2 66(68) 22(90) 2(92) 3(95) 2(97) X(97)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X 7( 7) 33(40) 7(47) 15(62) 11(73) 3(76)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 10(31) 11(42) 3(45)

PORT O CONNOR 34 2 81(83) 14(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 25(25) 44(69) 4(73) 10(83) 4(87) 1(88)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X 4( 4) 38(42) 5(47) 10(57) 8(65) 1(66)

ROCKPORT TX 34 2 87(89) 10(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 43(43) 45(88) 3(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X 13(13) 55(68) 7(75) 4(79) 1(80) 1(81)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 81(83) 14(97) 1(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 32(32) 46(78) 5(83) 1(84) 2(86) 1(87)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 8( 8) 44(52) 6(58) 2(60) 3(63) 1(64)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 85 15(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 15 80(95) 1(96) X(96) 2(98) 1(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 2 77(79) 2(81) X(81) 5(86) 3(89) 1(90)

MCALLEN TX 34 2 15(17) 14(31) 6(37) 9(46) 17(63) 3(66)
MCALLEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 9(21) 1(22)
MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

HARLINGEN TX 34 2 40(42) 10(52) 5(57) 6(63) 15(78) 2(80)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 5(19) 13(32) 3(35)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 1(12)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 4 37(41) 7(48) 5(53) 6(59) 16(75) 2(77)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 13(30) 2(32)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 1(11)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 27 4(31) 3(34) 3(37) 5(42) 16(58) 3(61)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) 9(17) 2(19)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

LA PESCA MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 9(19) 2(21)

TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=ewx#hti

Please review data in the link above.  It can provide context and a lot of this has been changing.  A lot of really good information and it gives are more detailed and user-friendly.    Give it a try and keep in mind your local Emergency Management, local radio and TV resources.  TSgt McClish can elaborate as well,  or myself, time permitting. Geeze dude, things are changing fast. We used to plot LAT/LONG and our best guess is those forecast points.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) <– airname…