Harvey – Go away now

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

151152WPCQPF_sm (1)
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

=======================================================================

151152

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch is discontinued west of Sabine Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Holly Beach Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sabine Pass Texas to west of Holly Beach Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

151152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.3 West. Harvey is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn
toward the northeast is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey should move through
southwestern and central Louisiana today and tonight, then move
through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern Mississippi Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Harvey moves
farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the south of the center. During the past few hours,
there have been reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in
southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas near Lake Charles,
Cameron, and Sabine Pass.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is
993 mb (29.33 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 10
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward
into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The expected
heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western
Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river, small
stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF
YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please
see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Holly Beach to Morgan City…2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach incl. Galveston Bay…1 to 3 ft
Morgan City to Grand Isle…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through
this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast
Arkansas.

151152_current_wind_sm

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

============================================================================

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS… TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SABINE PASS TEXAS TO WEST OF HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.3W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.3W AT 30/1500Z…INLAND
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 93.5W…INLAND

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 93.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

151152_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

============================================================================

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has changed little in organization since landfall, with
satellite and radar data showing continued convective banding, most
notably in the northwestern quadrant. Winds gusts of 35-45 kt have
been reported over the coastal regions south of the center, and the
central pressure has risen only slightly to 993 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. It should be noted that
a large area of winds just below tropical-storm-force is occurring
over the Gulf of Mexico south of the coasts of south-central and
southeastern Louisiana.

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Harvey
moved northward for a period of several hours near landfall, but now
is resuming a north-northeastward motion of roughly 020/7. The
cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric
high, which should steer it north-northeastward and then
northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
during the next few days until the system dissipates.

Harvey should gradually weaken as it moves farther inland, with the
intensity expected to drop below tropical-storm strength shortly
after the 12 h point. Subsequently, the system should decay to a
remnant low by 72 h and dissipate completely by 96 h. The forecast
weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall
and flooding along Harvey’s path, although the system’s faster
motion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what
occurred over southeastern Texas.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston,
Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by
the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 30.5N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1200Z…DISSIPATED

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS…45 MPH…75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

JACKSON MS 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FORT POLK LA 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)

LAKE CHARLES 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)

CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

JASPER TX 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)

KOUNTZE TX 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

===============================================================

151152_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1059 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

LAZ052>054-073-074-302300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

TXZ215-302300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

LAZ041-042-055-056-059-065>068-TXZ216-302300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…LCH…LIX…

=========================================================================

http://www.weather.gov/lix/satellite

activity_loop (6)

mcd1600

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Areas affected…Parts of east central and southeast Louisiana
through southern Mississippi

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 301451Z – 301645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…At least some risk for mainly isolated, relatively
short-lived tornadoes is already evident. The extent of this threat
remains a bit unclear, but it seems likely to increase into and
through early afternoon, particularly within a corridor across east
central and southeast Louisiana through much of southern
Mississippi, perhaps as far north as the I-20 corridor.

DISCUSSION…Beneath the lower/mid tropospheric dry slot to the east
of the remnant circulation center of Harvey, breaks in low-level
cloud cover are likely already allowing for an increase in boundary
layer instability in response to insolation. This should continue
into and through the midday hours, particularly within a narrow
plume of tropical boundary layer moisture (with surface dew points
of 75F+) wrapping across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal
areas, into the vicinity of the surface cyclone center which
continues to slowly track north northeast of Lake Charles.

Within/across this corridor of richer boundary layer moisture
content, a southeasterly component to the near surface flow beneath
southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 40 kt is already contributing
to favorable hodographs for the development of substantive low-level
mesocyclones. As cells embedded within ongoing and developing bands
of convection pivoting around Harvey occasionally strengthen, the
risk for mainly isolated, brief tornadoes will probably increase as
the boundary layer undergoes further destabilization into and
through early afternoon.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/30/2017

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…MOB…JAN…LIX…LCH…SHV…

LAT…LON 32139187 32329116 32128998 31468851 30308856 29918954
30649045 30989167 31589237 32139187

mcd1600

   Mesoscale Discussion 1600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of east central and southeast Louisiana
   through southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 301451Z - 301645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...At least some risk for mainly isolated, relatively
   short-lived tornadoes is already evident.  The extent of this threat
   remains a bit unclear, but it seems likely to increase into and
   through early afternoon, particularly within a corridor across east
   central and southeast Louisiana through much of southern
   Mississippi, perhaps as far north as the I-20 corridor.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath the lower/mid tropospheric dry slot to the east
   of the remnant circulation center of Harvey, breaks in low-level
   cloud cover are likely already allowing for an increase in boundary
   layer instability in response to insolation.  This should continue
   into and through the midday hours, particularly within a narrow
   plume of tropical boundary layer moisture (with surface dew points
   of 75F+) wrapping across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal
   areas, into the vicinity of the surface cyclone center which
   continues to slowly track north northeast of Lake Charles.

   Within/across this corridor of richer boundary layer moisture
   content, a southeasterly component to the near surface flow beneath
   southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 40 kt is already contributing
   to favorable hodographs for the development of substantive low-level
   mesocyclones.  As cells embedded within ongoing and developing bands
   of convection pivoting around Harvey occasionally strengthen, the
   risk for mainly isolated, brief tornadoes will probably increase as
   the boundary layer undergoes further destabilization into and
   through early afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/30/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32139187 32329116 32128998 31468851 30308856 29918954
               30649045 30989167 31589237 32139187 

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Henry Already!!! Say it’s not so!

mcd1593

 Mesoscale Discussion 1593
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

   Areas affected...Coastal LA and southeast TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 474...

   Valid 282058Z - 282230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 474 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to remain isolated, but a
   brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Substantial rain and storms have produced outflow and
   reinforced the front across much of the area with surface winds
   mainly out of the northeast. East to southeasterly winds do exist
   south of the main boundary, which currently exists near the coast.

   A line of storms extends from southwestern LA southward, with some
   cellular structures within. As these cells continue to train
   northward, they will encounter the surface front and may acquire
   rotation briefly with effective SRH on the order of 200 M2/s2.

   Farther west, storms over southeast TX are moving cyclonically
   northwestward around TC Harvey. Some of these cells may also contain
   a threat briefly as they cross the aforementioned boundary.

   ..Jewell.. 08/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30449196 30389328 30339409 30159448 29889466 29629447
               29589415 29699344 29569283 29419194 29339164 29509123
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0474.html
validww

US (3)


Click on the links above for information on the various watches and warnings.  It looks as if Harvey could have yet another life.

two_atl_0d0 (1).png

GULFIR172402015

weather.gov     images (24)National Weather ServiceWatches, Warnings & AdvisoriesGo to the NOAA HomepageNWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by “City, St” or zip code 

 
8 products issued by NWS for: Orange County Airport TX


Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
635 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
291200-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
635 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Heavy rainfall from slowly moving Tropical Storm Harvey along the
Texas coast will produce several rounds of training showers and
thunderstorms across Southeast Texas, Central and Southern
Louisiana. A flash flood watch for the entire area continues.

The prolonged east to southeast winds will lead to minor coastal
flooding across Southeast Texas and Southwestern Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
Continued heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Harvey will continue
through Thursday. The chances of precipitation will slowly diminish
Friday into the Labor Day weekend and the entire system moves
further inland and weakens.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be required.

$$


Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
416 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

TXC199-241-245-361-282245-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-170828T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson TX-Hardin TX-Orange TX-Jasper TX-
416 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Jefferson and Hardin
Counties...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
JEFFERSON...HARDIN...ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that heavy rain was once again falling over the area that has.
received a tremndous amount of rainfall the past few days. Flash
flooding is currently ogoing with evacuations ongoing along Taylors,
Hillebrandt, and Pine Island Bayous.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Jefferson and Hardin Counties.
This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Lumberton,
Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Evadale,
Central Gardens, Thicket, Saratoga, Hamshire, Wildwood, Mauriceville
and Buna.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches with locally
higher amounts are possible in the warned area for the remainder of
the afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. This is an extremely dangerous and
life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are
fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3049 9454 3053 9454 3052 9393
      3024 9390 3024 9384 3001 9376 2999 9386
      2993 9386 2984 9395 2979 9395 2968 9385
      2967 9405 2956 9435 2989 9436 2989 9444
      3011 9445 3011 9460

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
402 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...HEAVY RAINS FROM HARVEY POISED TO BRING MORE FLOODING...

.Showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer bands of
Tropical Storm Harvey will continue to develop and move ashore
across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana through much of
the coming week. Excessive rainfall amounts are likely through
Thursday, and with soil already saturated from recent rains,
flash flooding is likely.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
290500-
/O.CON.KLCH.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-170901T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
Including the cities of Fort Polk, Pickering, Leesville, Slagle,
Alexandria, Pineville, Effie, Marksville, Bunkie, Cottonport,
Simmesport, Mansura, Bundick Lake, De Ridder, Fields, Oretta,
Oakdale, Kinder, Ville Platte, Beaver, St. Landry, Mamou,
Reddell, Lawtell, Opelousas, Eunice, Lake Charles, Sulphur,
Hathaway, Jennings, Topsy, Roanoke, Welsh, Lake Arthur, Crowley,
Rayne, Branch, Church Point, Richard, Lafayette, Breaux Bridge,
Cade, St. Martinville, Abbeville, Intracoastal City, Meaux,
Forked Island, Kaplan, New Iberia, Morgan City, Burns Point,
Centerville, Franklin, Patterson, Berwick, Bayou Vista,
Stephensville, Hackberry, Johnson Bayou, Grand Lake, Klondike,
Cameron, Creole, Grand Chenier, Rutherford Beach, Town Bluff,
Fred, Hillister, Ivanhoe, Spurger, Warren, Woodville, Lumberton,
Silsbee, Beaumont, Sabine Pass, Sea Rim State Park, Orange,
Vidor, Bridge City, Holly Springs, Jasper, Kirbyville,
Magnolia Springs, Mt. Union, Roganville, Burkeville, Farrsville,
Jamestown, Newton, Wiergate, Bleakwood, Call, Gist, Buna,
Evadale, and Deweyville
402 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Louisiana and southeast Texas, including the
  following areas, in Louisiana, Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles,
  Beauregard, Calcasieu, East Cameron, Evangeline, Iberia,
  Jefferson Davis, Lafayette, Lower St. Martin, Rapides, St.
  Landry, St. Mary, Upper St. Martin, Vermilion, Vernon, and
  West Cameron. In southeast Texas, Hardin, Jefferson, Northern
  Jasper, Northern Newton, Orange, Southern Jasper, Southern
  Newton, and Tyler.

* Through Thursday evening

* Areal rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches are expected across
  Southeast Texas, Southwest Louisiana and portions of South-
  Central Louisiana, with 5 to 10 inches expected across Central
  Louisiana. Intense rainfall rates may overwhelm local drainage
  capacity.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

25



Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
331 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Louisiana...

  Bayou Vermilion Near Carencro

...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Minor Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...Texas...
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...Texas...
  Vermilion River At Lafayette, Surrey Street Gage
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont

291031-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NSBT2.3.ER.170827T1530Z.170902T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
331 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...Forecast flooding increased from Major to Record severity...
The Flood Warning continues for
 the Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:15 PM Monday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.2 feet by
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 10.0 feet...Major flooding along the river
  including Northwest Orange County From Lake View to the Saltwater
  Barrier with several homes and camps flooded. Flooding is also
  occurring along the river in Beaumont.
* Impact...At stages near 9.5 feet...Major flooding in Lakeview
  Estates.
* Impact...At stages near 8.0 feet...Widespread flooding, especially
  in Northwest Orange County from Lake View downstream to the
  Saltwater Barrier. Several homes and camps are flooded or
  threatened.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9404 3008 9401 3008 9413 3033 9421

$$

TXC245-361-291030-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0098.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BEAT2.3.ER.170827T2236Z.170902T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
331 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...Forecast flooding increased from Major to Record severity...
The Flood Warning continues for
 the Neches River Near Beaumont.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by
  Saturday morning. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At stages near 13.0 feet...River is near flood of record
  which occurred October 1994. Widespread major flooding is
  occurring. Numerous homes in Northeast Beaumont and Rose City are
  flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 11.0 feet...Major flooding occurs at
  Colliers Ferry Park and around the Beaumont Country Club.
  Residential roads off of Pine Street are impassable and water up to
  homes. Several streets in Northeast Beaumont also become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 7.5 feet...Moderate flooding is occurring.
  River levels are near those reached during Tropical Storm Allison
  in June 2001. Flooding of Colliers Ferry Park and secondary roads
  near the river can be expected.



&&

LAT...LON 3019 9417 3023 9411 3004 9378 2992 9387 2998 9406

$$


Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
226 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Louisiana...Texas...

  Calcasieu River Near Oakdale
  Calcasieu River Near Oberlin
  Sabine River Near Orange

...Observed Flooding Changed from Moderate to Minor Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Moderate to Major Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...
  Mermentau River Near Mermentau

...Observed Flooding Changed from Minor to Nonflood Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...
...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the
following rivers in Louisiana...
  Bayou Des Cannes NEAR Eunice
  Bundick Creek At Bundick Lake
  Whisky Chitto Creek Near Mittie
  Calcasieu River Near Kinder
  Bayou Nezpique Near Basile

LAC019-TXC361-290925-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FL.W.0116.170830T1000Z-170903T0200Z/
/ORNT2.1.ER.170830T1000Z.170830T1200Z.170902T0200Z.NO/
226 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  the Sabine River Near Orange.
* from late Tuesday night to Saturday evening...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  1:46 PM Monday the stage was 3.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 4.0 feet.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Wednesday morning and continue
  to rise to near 4.1 feet by early Friday morning. the river will
  fall below flood stage by Friday before midnight.
* Impact...At stages near 5.0 feet...Moderate flooding can be
  expected along the river with some roads in Orange likely flooded.
  Back water flooding can also be expected along Adams Bayou in
  Orange.
* Impact...At stages near 4.0 feet...Flooding of mainly secondary
  roads near the river can be expected. Steward Road may become
  impassable near the weigh station in Louisiana. The Louisiana weigh
  station is flooded. Water surrounds the Louisiana and Texas welcome
  centers.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 9376 3018 9365 3014 9363 2998 9372
      3001 9381

$$




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
LAC011-019-023-053-TXC351-361-282345-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FF.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170828T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1232 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northern Cameron Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
  Jefferson Davis Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
  Southwestern Beauregard Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
  Calcasieu Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
  Southwestern Newton County in southeastern Texas...
  Eastern Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 645 PM CDT Monday

* At 1228 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  scattered heavy rain showers continue falling across the warned
  area. Flash flooding is already occurring per stream gauges
  located across the area with rapid rises noted on some gauges with
  several secondary roads becoming flooded. Rainfall since this
  morning has been between two and four inches with an additional
  two to four inches expected across the area this afternoon.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Lake Charles, Sulphur, Orange, Jennings, Westlake, West Orange,
  Welsh, Vinton, Iowa, Lake Arthur, Elton, Fenton, Grand Lake,
  Deweyville, Hayes, Moss Bluff, De Quincy, Lacassine National
  Wildlife Refuge, Lake Charles Regional Airport and Starks.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
Residents living along streams and creeks or poor drainage
areas should take immediate precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 2993 9324 2997 9327 3002 9327 3005 9329
      3005 9333 2993 9334 2993 9376 3040 9389
      3052 9389 3050 9313 3042 9313 3044 9278
      3049 9277 3049 9263 3008 9263 3004 9272
      3004 9263 2993 9263

$$



Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2017

TORNADO WATCH 474 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC245-361-290500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0474.170828T1715Z-170829T0500Z/

TX
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON            ORANGE
$$



Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles La
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas..
  Bayou Des Cannes NEAR Eunice
  Whisky Chitto Creek Near Mittie
  Calcasieu River At Old Town Bay
  Calcasieu River Near Salt Water Barrier
  Bayou Nezpique Near Basile
  Mermentau River Near Mermentau
  Vermilion River At Lafayette, Surrey Street Gage
  Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine
  Sabine River Near Bon Wier
  Sabine River Near Deweyville
  Neches River Near Town Bluff
  Neches River Near Evadale
  Neches River at Neches River Saltwater Barrier
  Neches River Near Beaumont
  Village Creek Near Kountze
  Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake
  Bundick Creek At Bundick Lake
  Calcasieu River Near Glenmora
  Calcasieu River Near Kinder
  West Fork Of The Calcasieu River At Sam Houston Jones State Park

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-290551-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0096.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.2.ER.170828T1352Z.170901T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1052 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 AM Monday the stage was 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 27.2 feet by
  Thursday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 27.0 feet...Widespread moderate lowland
  flooding will occur. Homes in Deweyville closest to the river are
  flooded. Flooding of homes in the Indian Lakes and River Oaks
  sections will also occur. Low-lying roads and a few homes in
  Southwest Beauregard Parish have some flooding.
* Impact...At stages near 26.8 feet...Deweyville schools may be
  closed due to school bus routes being flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 26.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding will
  occur. The lowest homes between Deweyville and the river begin to
  flood, especially in the Indian Lakes and River Oaks sections.
  Low-lying roads and a few homes in Southwestern Beauregard Parish
  have some flooding.
* Impact...At stages near 25.0 feet...Lowest roads beside the river
  flood around Deweyville and subject to being closed. In addition,
  low-lying roads in Southwest Beauregard Parish are flooded
  including Robert Clark Road. Flooding occurs on the south side of
  Niblett Bluff Park with access roads to camp houses cut off around
  the park. Access roads to the river in Northeastern Orange County
  become flooded.
* Impact...At stages near 24.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding will
  occur.
* Impact...At stages near 23.0 feet...The river is at bankfull

Harvey is getting an attitude now!

The Pressure took a precipitous drop and this system is a major Hurricane with winds sustained at 95kts/110mph.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Multiple observing platforms indicate that Harvey’s structure is
evolving this morning. The hurricane has developed concentric
eyewalls, as observed in data from the WSR-88D Doppler radars in
Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane reported double wind maxima with diameters of 12 and
28 n mi. The aircraft data indicate that the central pressure has
continued to fall–now down to 947 mb–but the maximum winds have
not increased further. This discrepancy is not surprising given
hurricane’s current structure.

Intensity forecasts become complicated once a hurricane develops
concentric eyewalls, and fluctuations in intensity become more
likely. If an eyewall replacement occurs, then Harvey’s intensity
could decrease a bit while at the same time the overall wind field
increases in size. However, the hurricane remains in an environment
for intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity
is still possible before the center reaches land. But in the end,
the hurricane’s exact intensity at landfall does not change the
fact that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland
across much of southern and southeastern Texas. Slow weakening is
expected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not
expected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to
maintain tropical storm status through Wednesday.

Harvey has not quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/9 kt. Strong mid-level ridging building over the
western United States is still expected to impede Harvey’s forward
motion in the coming days, and the track guidance continues to show
the hurricane meandering or stalling near or just inland of the
Texas coast in 36-48 hours. Harvey could begin moving slowly
eastward on days 4 and 5 due to the influence of a mid-level
shortwave trough digging southward over the upper Midwest, but at
this time it is too early to say whether the center will definitely
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
tonight, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations should be
rushed to completion in the warning areas as tropical-storm-force
winds are arriving on the coast, and conditions will continue to
deteriorate through the rest of today and tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 26.7N 96.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 27.6N 96.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.4N 97.3W 90 KT 105 MPH…INLAND
36H 27/0000Z 28.8N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 28.3N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 30/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND

============================================================================

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 96.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of
the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward
speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre
Island recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday.  During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana.  Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are likely just beginning in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are likely to begin within the hurricane
warning area later today or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... 
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  96.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  96.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  95.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.6N  96.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.4N  97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N  97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.9N  97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.3N  96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N  95.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N  94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N  96.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TCVAT4

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ237-238-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-252300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ191-206-252300-
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

click about and see a vast array of products to keep you busy.

Harvey is a complex system,  with a varying profile, along with two centers. They most likely has two areas of rotation.  So with in mind, pay attention closely to this system

153146

Harvey for 200!

Harvey may have reached it’s minimum central pressure at 974mb.  Winds

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

…HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE TEXAS
COAST…
…LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…25.2N 94.6W
ABOUT 250 MI…400 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI…400 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…973 MB…28.74 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 94.6 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday
night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or
just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. While Harvey has changed little in strength over
the past several hours, strengthening is expected to resume later
tonight, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday and Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday. These conditions are likely to persist into Saturday in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisories at 1200 AM CDT and 200 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

======================================================================

 

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IN ADDITION…INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 94.6W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 94.6W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 94.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT…140NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 94.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

============================================================================

 

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Harvey’s rapid intensification seems to have slowed for the moment,
as an eye seen earlier in satellite imagery has lost definition
during the past few hours. In addition, reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that 700-mb flight level
winds are in the 75-80 kt range, with reliable surface wind
estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer remaining
near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure
has slowly fallen to 973 mb inside the 16 n mi wide eye. Based on
these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt, and this could be a
little conservative.

Harvey has turned a little to the left since the last advisory with
the initial motion now 315/9. A mid-level anticyclone over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Harvey generally
northwestward with a decreasing forward speed for the next 36-48 h,
with the center now forecast to make landfall on the middle Texas
coast in about 36 h. This part of the new forecast track has been
nudged a little to the left based mainly on the initial position
and motion. After landfall, the cyclone is likely to get stuck
between the Gulf anticyclone and a stronger anticyclone over the
western United States, with little motion likely from 48-96 h.
A slow eastward motion appears likely by 120 h due to the influence
of a trough in the westerlies digging into the eastern United
States. There is some spread in the guidance at that time, with
the GFS showing Harvey drifting slowly eastward and the ECMWF
showing a faster motion. The new forecast track splits this
difference of 5-day forecasts and lies near the consensus models.

It is unclear why the intensification has slowed, although it is
possibly due to some dry air seen earlier wrapping around the north
side of the core convection. Otherwise, Harvey remains in an
favorable environment for further strengthening with low vertical
shear and high oceanic heat content. The intensity forecast will
use the scenario that rapid intensification will resume tonight,
with Harvey becoming a major hurricane before landfall in Texas.
After landfall, the intensity forecast is based on the scenario that
Harvey will weaken over land, but it will remain close enough to
the coast so that the weakening will be slower than normal. Thus,
the forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm from 72-120 h.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 25.2N 94.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W 100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND

====================================================================

WTNT84 KNHC 250238
TCVAT4

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1038 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ237-238-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
251045-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
938 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

=====================================================================

 

HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS…85 MPH…140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

The link below will help with where the weather and particular from Far-South, Texas to the areas around Galveston, Houston and the Western Louisiana.

https://wordpress.com/post/stlluna7.wordpress.com/9621

US

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)

STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 12(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 13(23)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 15(29)
MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 10(25)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 13(33)
LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 15(35)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 12(26) 20(46) 12(58)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 13(27)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 5(17)

FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 11(34)
FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 10(21) 14(35) 12(47)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14)
LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)

CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 12(25) 16(41) 13(54)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 10(19)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9)

JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 10(22) 11(33) 9(42)
JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 12(32) 14(46) 8(54)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16)
KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 7(19) 13(32) 17(49) 9(58)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 10(22)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 11(12) 26(38) 9(47) 17(64) 12(76) 5(81)
GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) 13(32) 10(42)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 8(22)

HOUSTON TX 34 1 6( 7) 35(42) 12(54) 15(69) 9(78) 3(81)
HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) 9(27) 5(32)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12)

AUSTIN TX 34 1 2( 3) 29(32) 19(51) 12(63) 5(68) 1(69)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20)
AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) 43(47) 15(62) 9(71) 3(74) X(74)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) 1(29)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 2 35(37) 31(68) 6(74) 11(85) 5(90) 1(91)
FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 14(34) 15(49) 7(56)
FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 11(26) 5(31)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 9 62(71) 7(78) 2(80) 8(88) 5(93) 1(94)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 16(35) 20(55) 8(63)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) 15(31) 10(41)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 9(30) 16(46) 16(62) 8(70)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 11(21) 10(31)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16)

MATAGORDA TX 34 2 66(68) 22(90) 2(92) 3(95) 2(97) X(97)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X 7( 7) 33(40) 7(47) 15(62) 11(73) 3(76)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 10(31) 11(42) 3(45)

PORT O CONNOR 34 2 81(83) 14(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 25(25) 44(69) 4(73) 10(83) 4(87) 1(88)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X 4( 4) 38(42) 5(47) 10(57) 8(65) 1(66)

ROCKPORT TX 34 2 87(89) 10(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 43(43) 45(88) 3(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X 13(13) 55(68) 7(75) 4(79) 1(80) 1(81)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 81(83) 14(97) 1(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 32(32) 46(78) 5(83) 1(84) 2(86) 1(87)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 8( 8) 44(52) 6(58) 2(60) 3(63) 1(64)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 85 15(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 15 80(95) 1(96) X(96) 2(98) 1(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 2 77(79) 2(81) X(81) 5(86) 3(89) 1(90)

MCALLEN TX 34 2 15(17) 14(31) 6(37) 9(46) 17(63) 3(66)
MCALLEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 9(21) 1(22)
MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)

HARLINGEN TX 34 2 40(42) 10(52) 5(57) 6(63) 15(78) 2(80)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 5(19) 13(32) 3(35)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 1(12)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 4 37(41) 7(48) 5(53) 6(59) 16(75) 2(77)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 13(30) 2(32)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 1(11)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 27 4(31) 3(34) 3(37) 5(42) 16(58) 3(61)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) 9(17) 2(19)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

LA PESCA MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 9(19) 2(21)

TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=ewx#hti

Please review data in the link above.  It can provide context and a lot of this has been changing.  A lot of really good information and it gives are more detailed and user-friendly.    Give it a try and keep in mind your local Emergency Management, local radio and TV resources.  TSgt McClish can elaborate as well,  or myself, time permitting. Geeze dude, things are changing fast. We used to plot LAT/LONG and our best guess is those forecast points.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) <– airname…

 

Two Tropical Storms.

Eyes are to the East tonight as forecasters try to make sense of two storms.   Of course it is going to take a few days to ascertain that.   I have witnessed countless times, where forecasters use models and those models being useless.

two_atl_2d0 (13)

    Many times it is a blend of numbers.  If even one value is wrong, so can the whole forecast.   That is assuming that models are any true indice of coherence.   My experience is, that a more pragmatic approach is necessary.  I have seen rain chances of 80%,   being way off.  EIGHT DAYS OFF(only Virga).   Essentially rain that does not make it to the surface.

During the Winter Nationals at East Bay Raceway,  weather during these races are a make or break proposition.  Hundreds of thousands of dollars are at stake.  Even bankruptcy.  Track owners know I have their best interest at heart.  I do!  So I do not necessarily trust models.  We weigh a model’s reliability as time goes on.

In one instance,  Tampa forecasters blew it.  In the fourth of four storms they progged a lot of rain affecting the West Coast of Florida.   I challenged the status quo and we were the only track that raced that evening.   The announcers said that I am much more reliable that the TV and  radio Meteorologists.  Their assessment was and is correct.

The basics are considered first and observation is the very basic component.  In a forecast at Ramstein forecast units were forecasting.  I challenged them on the rain,  postulating that at all basic levels RH was only 5-15%.  How can you have rain without clouds.   Then as forecasts were for rain,  I saw an evolving and fluid situation.    The Benelux had a massive area of severe thunderstorms.

Paris was the key.  From there was a noticeable windshift and that was the catalyst for those storms.  88 MPH winds.  I simply used extrapolation and that was it.  A four-star general said that was the best logic that he had seen, in a very long time.

 During the 410 Sprint Car races, a LEWP (line echo wave pattern) begun to happen and the sponsor said my forecast was critical.  A tornado happened.  That is important, needless to say.  Sure I am wrong at times, but my forecasts are the Gold Standard.  My bro-in-law is a Late Model driver.   

lewp

LEWP11LEWP211apr20_bowecho1_rdr_KILX_01z_from grenci_hires_LABELS_crop

You really have to consider ALL options.  It really matters!!!

Meteorologist Larry Olson

(Mike Scott)