Where is Harvey?

two_atl_5d0 (12)

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

...UPDATED TO PLACE TROPICAL WAVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends across the central Caribbean with axis 
extending from 19N72W to a 1008 mb surface low near 14N72W to 
11N73W. This system was previously T.S Harvey. Scattered moderate
convection has developed during the past few hours near the low 
center mainly from 12N-17N between 73W-77W. A fast westward 
motion is expected to continue with this system for the next 
couple of days as the wave moves along the southern periphery of 
the subtropical ridge.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N45W to 10N46W, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a large area of 
cloudiness but convection is limited in association with this 
wave due to Saharan dust intrusion. This system coincides with a 
well defined 700 mb trough, and a high amplitude northward bulge 
of moisture is noted on the TPW product.

A tropical wave was introduced to this map over the eastern 
Caribbean, after analyzing upper-air soundings across the islands
and model guidance. The wave's axis extends from 19N65W to 10N64W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the
northern portion of the wave mainly north of 16N between 62W-66W
affecting the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. 

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending 
from western Cuba along 84W to near 10N84W, moving west at 10-15 
kt. The wave shows up very well on the TPW animation and 700 mb 
streamline analysis. Energy from the wave has fractured to the 
northeast and is analyzed as a surface trough currently located
over the Florida Peninsula. The wave is enhancing showers near
Honduras, Belize and adjacent waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to a
1008 mb low near 13N20W to 11N41W. The Intertropical Convergence 
Zone extends from 11N51W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large and well defined upper-level low centered over the
southeast Gulf near 25N85W continues to generate scattered 
showers over the Florida Straits. The western half of the Gulf is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1016 mb 
high pressure centered near 29N90W. Isolated showers and light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of 90W. The upper-low will
drift westward reaching the central Gulf by Monday. This system 
will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf
waters today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. Moisture associated with these tropical
waves will continue to affect the area increasing the likelihood 
of showers and thunderstorms today. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades across the basin, with the strongest winds
remaining east of 70W. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes, and mountain upslope lifting 
will combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the island mainly during the afternoon 
and evening hours through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As previously mentioned, the northern part of the tropical wave 
currently moving across the western Caribbean is analyzed as a 
trough currently extending across southeast Florida. This trough 
is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 76W, and
will continue to move westward through the day. Another surface 
trough is analyzed northeast of the Leeward Islands extending from
25N65W to 20N65W. This trough continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms from 19N-25N between 61W-66W. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of 
this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of fresh to strong winds is
noted per scatterometer data on the northern side of this trough.
The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 32N39W. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds are also noted between the coast of Africa 
and the Madeira/Canary Islands. These winds are the result of the 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures 
over west Africa.


GULFIR172320915
The Central Pressure USA_06Z
Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected to combine with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. This will result in
heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees from 11AM til 7PM.
Exposure to these conditions will raise the likelihood of heat
related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Maximum heat index values near 105 degrees are possible in the
Delta region on Monday. Prolonged exposure to these temperatures
or strenuous outdoor activities could be dangerous.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

$$

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.


...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss




Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
202215-
/O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro,
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof,
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola,
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point,
Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko,
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage,
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson,
Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur,
Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst,
Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude,
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss,
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia,
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak
  afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those
  outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

images (25)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-211100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Daytime temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees will
combine with high humidity values today to produce heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in
effect until early this evening. In addition, a couple of isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially south of Interstate 20. No
severe weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Thunderstorms will remain possible each day through much of the
next week. Thunderstorms are expected areawide on Wednesday.

Heat index values will continue to range between 105 and 109
degrees across portions of the area through Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures and lower heat index values are expected after a cold
front moves across the area on Wednesday. Precautions should be
taken to prevent heat related injuries.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, skywarn networks, and amateur
radio operators is not anticipated through tonight.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Today for Southeast Oklahoma,
Northwest and North Central Louisiana, Southwest and South Central
Arkansas, and parts of East and Northeast Texas...

.The combination of high temperatures in the middle and upper
nineties along with high humidity will result in heat indices of
105 to 109 degrees from this afternoon through early this
evening.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-210000-
/O.CON.KSHV.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs,
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville,
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden,
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice,
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia,
Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, Zwolle,
Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, Montgomery,
Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, Olla, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Atlanta, Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City,
Jefferson, Longview, Marshall, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches,
Center, Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...High pressure aloft across the area will allow for
  temperatures to climb into the middle to upper nineties. These
  temperatures along with low level moisture will produce heat
  indices of 105 to 109 degrees.

* TIMING...Heat indices will be near 105 to 109 in the afternoon
  and early evening before lowering.

* IMPACT...Precautions should be taken to prevent heat related
  illnesses, including limiting outdoor work activities to the
  morning before temperatures rise and early evening after the
  readings lower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Take frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned
environments. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

A Tale of Depression

Again this situation was simple last night.  The center is hard to find, even now.  Satellite Imagery shows a lot of rain on one side or the other.    So a wave makes sense , and with the storm now having sustained winds at 35mph.   Plenty of shear and central pressure has risen to 1007mb.   They are trying to make an omelet without the egg.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)

activity_loop (4)

 

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.

The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.

The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH


 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN
NICARAGUA…NORTHERN HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z


GULFIR172311745

203938_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Things to ponder – Harvey!

Last check Harvey has some issues. 1)  Max Sustained Winds  (40mph),  2) Minimum Central Pressure 1005mb (High),   Forward Speed 18mph (a tad fast).  Poorly developed and being twisted and churned on either side.   The 500mb is in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.  The HIGH is weak at all levels.  NHC is not even certain about the strength, but tend to think.  NO.  Met. Larry Olson (Mike Scott….)

GULFIR172310115

 

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Microwave and conventional geostationary satellite images indicate
that Harvey’s center is still displaced to the east of a persistent
cluster of deep convection due to about 15 kt of northeasterly
shear. With no notable changes in the cyclone’s structure since
the last advisory, the maximum wind estimate remains 35 kt, which
is in line with the latest Dvorak CI numbers.

Recent microwave fixes suggest that Harvey’s center may have slowed
down or wobbled northward temporarily, and the 12-hour motion
estimate is a slightly slower 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a swift
westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours.
Once Harvey moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 72 hours,
it will reach the western edge of the ridge, and it will likely
slow down and gain some latitude due to a cut-off low over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although the track guidance envelope
has shifted slightly northward on this cycle, especially around the
72-hour period, there are no significant changes from six hours ago.

Northeasterly or northerly shear is forecast to continue for the
next 36 hours or so, which should prevent significant strengthening
while Harvey moves westward across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. By 48 hours, the vertical shear over the cyclone
drops drastically, but the system’s fast motion could still
limit the amount of intensification that will occur. The best
opportunity for strengthening would likely be around day 3 when
Harvey begins to slow down as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula. The updated NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one during the first 48 hours, and it was nudged a little
lower at 72 hours to fall closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
(HCCA) model and the ICON intensity consensus. A lot of
uncertainty remains, however, since models like SHIPS and HWRF
bring Harvey near or to hurricane intensity before it reaches land
while the GFS and ECMWF continue to weaken the circulation while it
moves across the Caribbean Sea.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 13.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
120H 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 64.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 63.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.0N 66.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.3N 70.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 74.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N 78.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT… 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 89.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N 92.5W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 64.

 

Trouble in the Tropics?

The Yucatan Peninsula is where Tropical Storm Harvey  will first encounter land.   And  as it does it will weaken.  It is only a bland tropical system as is.  Any interaction with land will weaken it, but trajectory is a huge issue.  Crossing the Peninsula diagonally is best for everyone but those who see significant swells, a few winds and perhap torrential rains.  I am not saying that it is good news for Southern Texas to Lake Carles, LA.

204351_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

As the 5PM REPORT Came out,  the diagonal path seems to write a different story from above.  There are two considerations.  The strength and its path.   I think perhaps the question is that the system is still only a rather weak TS and any encounter with land may cause it to weaken even further

Strongly feel that this storm may be downgraded and stay a Tropical Depression.  If it does reach TS again,  then something atypical would happening.  Apart from that, little change is expected, as per me.

 

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey,
with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but
poorly organized, convective area. Earlier reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting
an increased intensity. However, due to uncertainties in how
representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in
the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 275/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge
north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion
for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern
to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. After 72 h, a
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new
forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but
there were only minor changes in the direction. It should be noted
that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey
might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale
models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest
runs.

The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and
thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow
strengthening during this time. However, the GFS and ECMWF again
forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and
the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker
cyclone. This lowers the confidence in intensification. After
48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the
main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The
intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in
72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
120H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

…HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI…650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

GULFIR172302115       This satellite picture depicts an irregular storm center on the IR Loop.  It could better organize and center seems kind of oblique looking.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

GULFWV172301915

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

southeast

activity_loop (3)

This chart shows a lot of instability and a few showers and thunderstorms.   Pretty good indicator of enhanced convective activity.  I am not so certain of the forecast path and even a strong circulation.    Right now it is diffuse.  The next few hours may give a few answers.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) – DWWX–

Bye To Tropical Storm Franklin

two_atl_2d0 (15)

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 19.8N 98.3W at 10/1200 
UTC or about 50 nm ENE of Mexico City moving W at 13 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is from 18N-22N between 94W-97W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-22N between
93W-102w. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 10N32W to 21N30W moving W at 5-10 
kt. The wave coincides with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing 
between 27W-40W. A 1013 mb low is embedded within the monsoon
trough at the southern extent of the wave axis near 10N32W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 33W-36W.

A tropical wave extends from 12N62W to 22N57W moving W at 10-15 
kt. A 1013 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 19N59W 
providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 18N-22N 
between 54W-60W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N85W to 19N84W moving W at 10-15 
kt. The wave remains embedded within middle to upper level low 
centered over the western Caribbean Sea near 16N84W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 06N-16N between 76W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 
12N28W to 06N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N42W to 04N52W. Aside from convection associated with the 
tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N 
between 13W-25W...and from 07N-12N between 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary focus this morning is Tropical Storm Franklin as it 
moves across interior portions of east-central Mexico and
continues to weaken. Scattered showers and strong tstms continue 
to impact the SW Gulf waters generally S of 22N W of 93W. 
Elsewhere across the basin...an upper level ridge anchored over 
the Rio Grande River valley extends an axis eastward over the 
northern Gulf and Florida peninsula. At the surface...mostly 
gentle to moderate SE winds prevail under relatively tranquil 
conditions. An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the Bahamas and western Cuba that continues to support a 
surface trough analyzed from the Florida Straits near 24N81W N-NE
to western Grand Bahama Island to 30N78W. This trough is forecast
to continue moving westward and bring increased cloudiness and 
precipitation to the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters
through tonight. The trough is expected to stall across Florida 
Friday night into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor 
across the north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and
tranquil conditions for the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
An upper level low is centered over the western Caribbean near
16N84W. In addition...a tropical wave is analyzed along 85W and 
both features continue to generate scattered showers and tstms 
across portions of Central America and the SW Caribbean generally 
S of 16N between 76W-85W. The upper level low is forecast to move
west and weaken over Central America while the tropical wave 
moves into the East Pacific region. Farther east...the remainder 
of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of 
mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with moderate to 
fresh trades prevailing. A few scattered showers and tstms are 
occurring across the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 63W-68W as
a tropical wave currently along 60W begins to impact the Lesser 
Antilles and eastern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail this morning 
across the island. Overall dry conditions are expected through 
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is centered over the Florida
Straits and western Cuba this morning and reflects a surface 
trough analyzed from 24N81W to 30N78W. The surface trough 
provides focus for widely scattered showers and tstms from 23N- 
28N between 75W-81W. The upper level trough is expected to become
absorbed by an upper level low centered over the western 
Caribbean Sea later today. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW 
North Atlc lies under the influence of a broad upper level trough 
over the eastern CONUS. The troughing supports a stationary front
extending from offshore of the Outer Banks to coastal Georgia 
with scattered showers and isolated tstms generally remaining N of
32N W of 73W. Farther east...another upper level low is centered 
near 23N57W that continues to enhance convection in the vicinity 
of the tropical wave between 55W-65W and a dissipating stationary
front analyzed along 27N. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
from 23N-28N between 53W-63W. The stationary front links E-NE to 
a 1018 mb low centered near 32N38W. Isolated showers and tstms 
are occurring in the vicinity of the low N of 26N between 36W- 
44W.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm, which made landfall overnight in eastern Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located about a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands have changed little overnight. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the weekend while the
system moves northwestward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although development is not anticipated,
this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of the
Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

offshores

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

An upper level low pressure system coupled with a rather moist
atmosphere resulted in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, across portions of deep east Texas and
north central Louisiana this morning. Rainfall rates upwards of
around two inches per hour across north central Louisiana pose a
threat for flash flooding, especially across low lying and poor
drainage roadways. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 10 AM
CDT for La Salle, Grant, Winn, Caldwell, Jackson, Ouachita,
Lincoln and Union Parishes.

By early this afternoon, the threat for heavy rainfall will be on
the decline as the precipitation commence to wane. However,
daytime destabilization may lead to the resurgence of additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Four-State region, before diminishing shortly after sunset.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Precipitation coverage will be on the rise Friday through early
next week, as a series of embedded disturbances within northwest
flow aloft interacts with a moist atmosphere. Gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall and consequently localized flooding
will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ECI8 (5)POE_Thumb

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

An upper level low pressure system coupled with a rather moist
atmosphere resulted in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, across portions of deep east Texas and
north central Louisiana this morning. Rainfall rates upwards of
around two inches per hour across north central Louisiana pose a
threat for flash flooding, especially across low lying and poor
drainage roadways. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 10 AM
CDT for La Salle, Grant, Winn, Caldwell, Jackson, Ouachita,
Lincoln and Union Parishes.

By early this afternoon, the threat for heavy rainfall will be on
the decline as the precipitation commence to wane. However,
daytime destabilization may lead to the resurgence of additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Four-State region, before diminishing shortly after sunset.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Precipitation coverage will be on the rise Friday through early
next week, as a series of embedded disturbances within northwest
flow aloft interacts with a moist atmosphere. Gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall and consequently localized flooding
will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed for rainfall and potential flood
reports this morning through early afternoon.

$$



images (20)

Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-101715-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of El Dorado, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston,
Farmerville, Bernice, Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport,
Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro,
Monroe, Many, Zwolle, Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield,
Colfax, Montgomery, Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena,
Midway, Olla, Nacogdoches, Center, Lufkin, San Augustine,
Hemphill, and Pineland
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NOW...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to shift
southeastward at 10 mph across much of northwest and north
central Louisiana. Some embedded storms remain from Pleasant Hill
and Coushatta to near Powhatan with minor flooding. Rainfall
amounts will range widely from around a tenth inch to as much as
another inch over the next two hours with some flooding in low
lying and poor drainage areas. Roads may also experience lingering
water with slow to drain out flooding especially near low water
crossings. Turn around, don`t drown. Elsewhere from Deep East
Texas and North Louisiana and South Arkansas new small showers are
cropping up as daytime heating commences.

$$

24




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
LAC127-101700-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FF.W.0032.170810T1359Z-170810T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
859 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Eastern Winn Parish in north central Louisiana...

* Until noon CDT

* At 856 AM CDT, local law enforcement report continued flooding
  with heavy rain ending across the warned area. Up to two inches of
  rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring with
  many highways inundated.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Winnfield, Dodson, Sikes, Joyce and Hudson.

Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the
southern portions of the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Rip Current Statement

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...

.HURRICANE FRANKLIN MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANKLIN TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES AND ALLOW STRONGER WAVE RUN-UP WITH WATER REACHING THE
DUNES.

TXZ242-243-245-247-110000-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.Y.0015.170810T1241Z-170811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCRP.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-170811T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-ARANSAS-CALHOUN-
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WAVE RUN UP INTO THE DUNES RESULTING IN LIMITED TO
  IMPOSSIBLE BEACH DRIVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
  AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
  ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND
FLOAT. DON`T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY MEANS THAT SWELL ENERGY FROM
FRANKLIN WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE DUNES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. IT IS ADVISED TO NOT DRIVE ALONG AREA BEACH ROADS TODAY.

&&

$$

HEAVENER



Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1012 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ234-242>247-101700-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Victoria-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-
Calhoun-
Including the cities of Victoria, Kingsville, Corpus Christi,
Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton, Mathis, Rockport,
Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
1012 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NOW...
Through 12 PM CDT, isolated showers will continue to move to the
northwest across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters and move inland
across the Coastal Bend and into the Victoria Crossroads. Rainfall
will generally be light to moderate at times with accumulations
less than a tenth of an inch.

$$

TJC




Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1007 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

TXZ234-242>247-102200-
Victoria-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Victoria, Kingsville, Corpus Christi,
Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton, Mathis, Rockport,
Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
1007 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Tropical funnel clouds possible today...

The atmosphere will be favorable for the development of tropical
funnel clouds today. Most of these funnel clouds will be short
lived. However, you should be prepared to seek shelter in the
event a funnel does reach the ground.

$$

Heavener



Coastal Flood Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...

.HURRICANE FRANKLIN MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANKLIN TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES AND ALLOW STRONGER WAVE RUN-UP WITH WATER REACHING THE
DUNES.

TXZ242-243-245-247-110000-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.Y.0015.170810T1241Z-170811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCRP.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-170811T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-ARANSAS-CALHOUN-
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WAVE RUN UP INTO THE DUNES RESULTING IN LIMITED TO
  IMPOSSIBLE BEACH DRIVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
  AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
  ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND
FLOAT. DON`T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY MEANS THAT SWELL ENERGY FROM
FRANKLIN WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE DUNES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. IT IS ADVISED TO NOT DRIVE ALONG AREA BEACH ROADS TODAY.

&&

$$images (5)

HEAVENER



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

TXZ229>234-239>247-110000-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
430 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across South
Texas today. Thunderstorms are not expected to become severe at
this time.

There is a high risk of rip currents for Gulf facing beaches
today.

Afternoon heat index values will range from 105 to 109 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday over
all but the western quarter of South Texas.

Afternoon heat index values will be between 105 and 113 degrees this
weekend into the middle of next week across much of the area. Heat
advisories may also be needed at times over the Southern Coastal
Bend, Southern Brush Country, and Rio Grande Plains, as heat indices
meet or exceed 110 degrees or more for a few hours each day

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
536 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

CAZ280>282-284-110045-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0027.170810T1900Z-170811T0500Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
536 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282 AND 284...

* Affected area: In Northern CA...all of Siskiyou County in Fire
  Weather Zones 280...281...282 and 284.

* Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning
  activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and
  shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms.

* Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result
  in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute
  to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are
  possible. Areas that received little or no rainfall in the
  past 24 hours are at higher risk for new starts.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered
thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where
many fire starts may occur in a short period of time.

One Weak, the other Mexico-bound

These tropical storm systems are a lot of nothing, or at the very least no major threat to the United States (CONUS).     Its a good thing also,  after the Southern Tier of New York suffered a lot of damage.

two_atl_2d0 (14)

Rte 17 being shut down in places with the worst flooding since Hurricane/Tropical Sorm Agnes had its own periods of torrential rain,  flooding and thousands of disposessed people.

I remember helping out in Mansfield, PA and while prophylactic measures were undertaken, Mother Nature is respector of human intervention.  Agnes was potent because the storm stalled off the coast of NYC.

Pictures shocked the public and creeks turned into rivers and rivers into ersatz lakes.  No need for the Finger Lakes,  that’s for sure.

haggt

images (14)images (15)

images (16)images (17)

Fortunately we can begin to lower probabilities but not altogether.   And as for  the tropicals storms near the Yucatan and Cape Verde Islands, we can breathe a sigh of relief.   Major news sees a gone chance of flooding and their crocodile tears.  No per diem this time around.

I do not remember power going out for very long.  Hospital was not far away.  My uncle who worked the Corning Glass works had a heart attack after carrying my aunt for a couple of miles.

AgnesRFC10

 

 

Just when you were safe. 8/6/17.

The tropics are coming to life.   We have two tropcial systems in our sights.  The first will makes its mark, moving to the  Yucatan Peninsula,   Bay of Compeche and towards Honduras.

Some strengthening may be possible.   This an expansive system and will probably be some kind of  named storm,  by the middle of the week..

This interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula may weaken it. But not for long.  The Bay of Compeche is favorable as it glides WNW.

The next system is near the Cape Verde Islands.   It is elongated,  disorganized and potentially favorable for development, in the next severable days.

hurricane-clipart-hurricane.03hurricane-clipart-red-hurricane-clipart-1

hurricane-clipart-hurricane-shelter-clipart-1

Be smart,  do not stand in the storm.  One reporter (Independence Day) was standing in the wind and was hit by a steel partition.  People were cheering,  sick of the stupid weather individual.

download (2)yyy

yyyudfdf

Pacific Paratrooper

This blog courtesy Pacific Paratrooper

It cannot be said enough.  The Philippine military played a crucial role in securing their country and lands around the world.   Some of this is lore, but a great portion was not.  The Bataan March, the bombings of Hospitals and the sheer cruelty to the Filipino people. We do love you for all that and more.

maxresdefault (4)

5661551111download (1).jpg

shopping.jpg 1221117.jpg

The link was by Paratrooper,  and the rest and the rest by me.

ELMIRA

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
356 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-030800-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
356 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
A strong cold front will move into Upstate New York and Pennsylvania
Friday night and slice into a very warm and humid air mass. This will
set the stage for a round of thunderstorms from late Friday afternoon
into the evening. The thunderstorms will have the potential to
produce very heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail. The showers
and storms will taper down late Friday night.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio, or your local media for the latest
updates on this situation. You can also check out our facebook or
twitter page for more information.

Hazardous weather is not expected from Saturday through Tuesday at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday afternoon and evening.

$$
DJN



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
NYC025-022015-
/O.NEW.KBGM.FF.W.0038.170802T1714Z-170802T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
114 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Delaware County in central New York...

* Until 415 PM EDT

* At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
  already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rockland, Walton, Delhi, Roxbury, Colchester, Hamden, Andes,
  Stamford, Margaretville and Hobart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 7454 4220 7453 4217 7445 4215 7450
      4215 7453 4212 7456 4191 7500 4215 7529
      4242 7462 4235 7443

$$

KAH



 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
104 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

NYZ057-021800-
Delaware NY-
104 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...EAST CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 103 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of several
strong thunderstorms over Roxbury, or 16 miles east of Delhi, moving
east at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roxbury, Margaretville, Fleischmanns, Arkville, Halcottsville and New
Kingston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4215 7450 4215 7453 4212 7455 4213 7474
      4232 7476 4238 7449 4236 7447 4230 7446
      4220 7453 4217 7446 4216 7445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 266DEG 5KT 4225 7459

$$

JAB



 

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1235 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

NYC007-025-PAC115-127-021830-
/O.NEW.KBGM.FA.Y.0115.170802T1635Z-170802T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Broome NY-Delaware NY-Susquehanna PA-Wayne PA-
1235 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Southeastern Broome County in central New York...
  Southwestern Delaware County in central New York...
  Northeastern Susquehanna County in northeastern Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Wayne County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 230 PM EDT

* At 1234 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to numerous
  thunderstorms slowly moving through the area. This will cause
  minor flooding in parts of the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Sanford, Susquehanna, Deposit, Susquehanna Depot, Hancock, Ararat,
  Lanesboro, Thompson, Starrucca and Hiawatha.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

 

The location near Africa and the Atlantic Basin are having difficulty forming.  Nothing to see here.

xyt

tisdale

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030830-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today, embedded within a broad
area of rain across North and Central Texas. Heavy rain and localized
flooding will be the main hazards from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Low chances for thunderstorms will linger across Central Texas on
Thursday.

An unsettled weather pattern will continue through early
next week resulting in more chances for thunderstorms across North
and Central Texas Friday through Tuesday. Locations that receive
multiple rounds of rainfall throughout this time period may begin to
experience localized flooding.

Excessive Heat Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
316 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

WAZ504-507-509-511-512-555-556-558-559-030000-
/O.CON.KSEW.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/
Southwest Interior-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
316 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Unusually hot weather will continue through
  Friday. Widespread record highs are expected today and Thursday.
  Thursday should be the hottest day for most spots when highs
  will probably be within 5 degrees of the all-time records. Highs
  on Wednesday will be in the 90s. Thursday will be slightly
  warmer with 90s to near 104. Friday will be slightly cooler,
  but highs will still be in the upper 80s and 90s.

* TIMING...Through early Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Heat illnesses are possible with temperatures this
  hot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
unusually hot weather will occur, creating a dangerous situation
in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during
hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a
matter of minutes.

&&

$$



Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
825 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.Dry unstable conditions will continue into Thursday particularly
in the Cascades and Olympics. Meeting Red Flag Warning criteria
for the Puget Sound area lowlands south into the southwest
interior looks less likely, but still possible for Thursday
afternoon.

WAZ654-655-657-022330-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FW.A.0002.170803T2100Z-170804T0600Z/
Central and South Puget Sound Lowlands-
Black Hills and Southwest Interior Lowlands-
Southeast Puget Sound Lowlands Generally Below 1500 Feet-
825 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 654, 655, AND 657...

* FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 654, 655, AND 657...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 654. Fire weather zone 655.
  Fire weather zone 657.

* HAINES...Midlevel Haines rising to 6 or higher.

* TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY...Highs today in the 90s and Thursday
  ranging from 96 to 104. Relative humidities this afternoon to
  drop into the lower to mid 20 percent range, and Thursday
  afternoon range from the upper teens to mid 20s.

* IMPACTS...Conditions may become favorable for rapid spread on
  any new or existing fires. Any outdoor burning is not
  recommended.

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
533 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.Copious amounts of monsoonal moisture will continue to stream
across Southwestern California through Thursday. There will be a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire region
today and early tonight. Due to abundant moisture throughout the
atmosphere, there will be the potential for intense downpours with
any thunderstorms. This will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially to interior sections.

Particularly vulnerable to the effects of heavy downpours will be
locations in and below recent burn areas such as the Whittier and
Alamo burn areas. In addition to an increased threat of flash
flooding, mud and debris flows will be a concern should heavy rain
occur.

Latest computer models indicate that the moisture will linger
into Thursday night, especially in the mountains and the Antelope
Valley, so the Flash Flood watch may have to be extended in some
areas.

CAZ547-021945-
/O.EXA.KLOX.FF.A.0008.170802T1800Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
Including the cities of Woodland Hills, Northridge, Burbank,
and Universal City
533 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has expanded
the

* Flash Flood Watch to include the San Fernando Valley.

* From 11 AM PDT this morning through this evening

* Monsoonal moisture will bring a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms to the area. Some thunderstorms may produce
  intense downpours which could lead to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030830-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
328 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible today, embedded within a broad
area of rain across North and Central Texas. Heavy rain and localized
flooding will be the main hazards from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Low chances for thunderstorms will linger across Central Texas on
Thursday.

An unsettled weather pattern will continue through early
next week resulting in more chances for thunderstorms across North
and Central Texas Friday through Tuesday. Locations that receive
multiple rounds of rainfall throughout this time period may begin to
experience localized flooding.

Excessive Heat Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
316 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

WAZ504-507-509-511-512-555-556-558-559-030000-
/O.CON.KSEW.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170805T0400Z/
Southwest Interior-Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-
Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-
East Puget Sound Lowlands-Bellevue and Vicinity-
Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
316 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Unusually hot weather will continue through
  Friday. Widespread record highs are expected today and Thursday.
  Thursday should be the hottest day for most spots when highs
  will probably be within 5 degrees of the all-time records. Highs
  on Wednesday will be in the 90s. Thursday will be slightly
  warmer with 90s to near 104. Friday will be slightly cooler,
  but highs will still be in the upper 80s and 90s.

* TIMING...Through early Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Heat illnesses are possible with temperatures this
  hot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
unusually hot weather will occur, creating a dangerous situation
in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. This is especially true during
hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a
matter of minutes.

&&

$$



Fire Weather Watch

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
825 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.Dry unstable conditions will continue into Thursday particularly
in the Cascades and Olympics. Meeting Red Flag Warning criteria
for the Puget Sound area lowlands south into the southwest
interior looks less likely, but still possible for Thursday
afternoon.

WAZ654-655-657-022330-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FW.A.0002.170803T2100Z-170804T0600Z/
Central and South Puget Sound Lowlands-
Black Hills and Southwest Interior Lowlands-
Southeast Puget Sound Lowlands Generally Below 1500 Feet-
825 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 654, 655, AND 657...

* FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 654, 655, AND 657...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 654. Fire weather zone 655.
  Fire weather zone 657.

* HAINES...Midlevel Haines rising to 6 or higher.

* TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY...Highs today in the 90s and Thursday
  ranging from 96 to 104. Relative humidities this afternoon to
  drop into the lower to mid 20 percent range, and Thursday
  afternoon range from the upper teens to mid 20s.

* IMPACTS...Conditions may become favorable for rapid spread on
  any new or existing fires. Any outdoor burning is not
  recommended.

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
533 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.Copious amounts of monsoonal moisture will continue to stream
across Southwestern California through Thursday. There will be a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the entire region
today and early tonight. Due to abundant moisture throughout the
atmosphere, there will be the potential for intense downpours with
any thunderstorms. This will bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially to interior sections.

Particularly vulnerable to the effects of heavy downpours will be
locations in and below recent burn areas such as the Whittier and
Alamo burn areas. In addition to an increased threat of flash
flooding, mud and debris flows will be a concern should heavy rain
occur.

Latest computer models indicate that the moisture will linger
into Thursday night, especially in the mountains and the Antelope
Valley, so the Flash Flood watch may have to be extended in some
areas.

CAZ547-021945-
/O.EXA.KLOX.FF.A.0008.170802T1800Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Los Angeles County San Fernando Valley-
Including the cities of Woodland Hills, Northridge, Burbank,
and Universal City
533 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Los Angeles/Oxnard has expanded
the

* Flash Flood Watch to include the San Fernando Valley.

* From 11 AM PDT this morning through this evening

* Monsoonal moisture will bring a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms to the area. Some thunderstorms may produce
  intense downpours which could lead to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
ak

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1123 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

AKZ217-218-030730-
/O.NEW.PAFG.FA.Y.0011.170801T1941Z-170803T0730Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Upper Kobuk and Noatak Valleys-Southeastern Brooks Range-
1123 AM AKDT Tue Aug 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a

* Small Stream Flood Advisory for Rapid Rises for...
  The Upper Noatak, Kobuk, and Alatna River Basins...

* Until 1130 PM AKDT Wednesday

* Over 1 inch of rain fell over much of the upper Noatak, Kobuk, and
  Alatna River basins since Monday. A second weather front moving
  across the Brooks Range will bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of
  rain through Wednesday. Some locations north of Ambler and Kobuk
  may receive over 2 inches of rain.

* Rapid rises and minor flooding of small streams draining the
  northwest Brooks Range will begin this evening and continue into
  Wednesday. This includes small streams in the upper Noatak, Kobuk,
  and Alatna River valleys. Larger rivers in this area will
  experience sharp rises over the next several days, but flooding of
  the larger rivers is not expected at this time.

* People in this region of the Brooks Range should be prepared for
  rising water and increased debris moving down streams and rivers.
  Gravel bars will be covered and water will rise into the brush
  line on many rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated or ponding
of water is occurring or is imminent.sacre

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1154 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

.Widespread triple digit temperatures are expected across the
Valley and surrounding terrain through Thursday. Peak heat is
expected through Today. This will continue the risk for heat
related illnesses for the general population and especially for
sensitive groups.

CAZ014-017-019-067>069-030000-
/O.CON.KSTO.HT.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170804T0300Z/
Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Southern Sacramento Valley-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Motherlode-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park-
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Including the cities of Burney, Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto,
Grass Valley, Jackson, Chester, Quincy, and Blue Canyon
1154 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures 98 to 108 degrees at
  elevations below 6000 feet. Overnight lows in the low 60s to
  mid 70s.

* IMPACTS...Long outdoor exposure will increase chances for heat
  related illness, especially for sensitive groups and people
  without access to AC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
855 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
031100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
855 AM CDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the
region today as an approaching disturbance aloft interacts with an
increasingly moist atmosphere. Locations which receive repeated
heavy rains could experience minor flooding...otherwise severe
weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Elevated mainly afternoon and early evening rain chances remain in
the forecast through early next week. Severe weather is not
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed.

$$



Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
147 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

TXC245-361-022045-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0068.170802T1847Z-170802T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jefferson TX-Orange TX-
147 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
  for...
  Northwestern Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
  Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT

* At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
  Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in
  the advisory area. Rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour can be
  expected in the storms, with totals rainfall amounts of 2 to 3
  inches possible.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Vidor, West Orange, Nome, Bevil
  Oaks, China, Rose City, Pine Forest and Orangefield.
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