Harvey ?

Harvey has been a tough nut to crack.  First:  Storm Center has been inconsistent and thunderstorm patterns erratic.   So right now the center is anyone’s guess.   These sudden flare-ups of Thunderstorm activity are partly due to convection over-land and sea-breezes.

If anything, circulation is closer to Florida,  with an elongated center.   The system  looks to be just off of  Florida.  The million dollar question is the actual center,  sustained winds and pressure.  There is a bit of Thunderstorm activity  in a cyclonic pattern off the coast of Florida.  Some of that is attributed to Thunderstorm Tops.   But this picture is NOT set at this time.

So for now, the next pressure recording and sustained winds are very importsnt. Florida two clusters of thunderstorms.  Wait, three, my bad.  One is superimposed on another.

GULFWV172321615

GULFVS172321945

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210000-
/O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro,
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof,
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola,
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point,
Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko,
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage,
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson,
Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur,
Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst,
Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude,
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss,
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia,
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak
  afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those
  outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$



 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

LAZ015-023>026-MSZ026>033-035>039-042>046-048>052-054>066-072>074-
212000-
Richland-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-
Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
258 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees will remain
possible through early this evening  Exposure to these conditions
will raise the likelihood of heat related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

$$

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.

download (8)

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR EAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410
AND 425...

IDZ410-425-210300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170821T0300Z/
Upper Snake River Valley/Idaho Falls BLM-
Middle Snake River Valley/Twin Falls BLM north of the Snake River-
203 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR EAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 410 AND 425...

* AFFECTED AREA... Arco Desert Region of fire weather zone 410.
  Fire weather zone 425.

* WIND...Southwest to West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
  mph.

* HUMIDITY...Minimum 9 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Do not use fireworks.
  Engine heat from vehicles can spark wildfires, especially in
  grasses. Do not park on or drive over grassy areas or throw
  cigarettes out of cars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Fires may experience
rapid rates of growth. Please advise the appropriate officials or
fire crews in the field of the red flag warning for portions of
Southeast Idaho.

images (23)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
356 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
356 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
mainly for areas north of Interstate 70, where strong gusty winds
and hail to the size of quarter dollars will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night for areas north of Interstate 70, and again on Tuesday for
areas south and east of Saint Louis.

 

Where is Harvey?

two_atl_5d0 (12)

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

...UPDATED TO PLACE TROPICAL WAVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends across the central Caribbean with axis 
extending from 19N72W to a 1008 mb surface low near 14N72W to 
11N73W. This system was previously T.S Harvey. Scattered moderate
convection has developed during the past few hours near the low 
center mainly from 12N-17N between 73W-77W. A fast westward 
motion is expected to continue with this system for the next 
couple of days as the wave moves along the southern periphery of 
the subtropical ridge.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N45W to 10N46W, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a large area of 
cloudiness but convection is limited in association with this 
wave due to Saharan dust intrusion. This system coincides with a 
well defined 700 mb trough, and a high amplitude northward bulge 
of moisture is noted on the TPW product.

A tropical wave was introduced to this map over the eastern 
Caribbean, after analyzing upper-air soundings across the islands
and model guidance. The wave's axis extends from 19N65W to 10N64W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the
northern portion of the wave mainly north of 16N between 62W-66W
affecting the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. 

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending 
from western Cuba along 84W to near 10N84W, moving west at 10-15 
kt. The wave shows up very well on the TPW animation and 700 mb 
streamline analysis. Energy from the wave has fractured to the 
northeast and is analyzed as a surface trough currently located
over the Florida Peninsula. The wave is enhancing showers near
Honduras, Belize and adjacent waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to a
1008 mb low near 13N20W to 11N41W. The Intertropical Convergence 
Zone extends from 11N51W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large and well defined upper-level low centered over the
southeast Gulf near 25N85W continues to generate scattered 
showers over the Florida Straits. The western half of the Gulf is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1016 mb 
high pressure centered near 29N90W. Isolated showers and light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of 90W. The upper-low will
drift westward reaching the central Gulf by Monday. This system 
will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf
waters today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. Moisture associated with these tropical
waves will continue to affect the area increasing the likelihood 
of showers and thunderstorms today. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades across the basin, with the strongest winds
remaining east of 70W. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes, and mountain upslope lifting 
will combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the island mainly during the afternoon 
and evening hours through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As previously mentioned, the northern part of the tropical wave 
currently moving across the western Caribbean is analyzed as a 
trough currently extending across southeast Florida. This trough 
is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 76W, and
will continue to move westward through the day. Another surface 
trough is analyzed northeast of the Leeward Islands extending from
25N65W to 20N65W. This trough continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms from 19N-25N between 61W-66W. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of 
this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of fresh to strong winds is
noted per scatterometer data on the northern side of this trough.
The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 32N39W. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds are also noted between the coast of Africa 
and the Madeira/Canary Islands. These winds are the result of the 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures 
over west Africa.


GULFIR172320915
The Central Pressure USA_06Z
Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected to combine with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. This will result in
heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees from 11AM til 7PM.
Exposure to these conditions will raise the likelihood of heat
related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Maximum heat index values near 105 degrees are possible in the
Delta region on Monday. Prolonged exposure to these temperatures
or strenuous outdoor activities could be dangerous.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

$$

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.


...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss




Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
202215-
/O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro,
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof,
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola,
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point,
Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko,
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage,
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson,
Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur,
Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst,
Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude,
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss,
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia,
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak
  afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those
  outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

images (25)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-211100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Daytime temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees will
combine with high humidity values today to produce heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in
effect until early this evening. In addition, a couple of isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially south of Interstate 20. No
severe weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Thunderstorms will remain possible each day through much of the
next week. Thunderstorms are expected areawide on Wednesday.

Heat index values will continue to range between 105 and 109
degrees across portions of the area through Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures and lower heat index values are expected after a cold
front moves across the area on Wednesday. Precautions should be
taken to prevent heat related injuries.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, skywarn networks, and amateur
radio operators is not anticipated through tonight.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Today for Southeast Oklahoma,
Northwest and North Central Louisiana, Southwest and South Central
Arkansas, and parts of East and Northeast Texas...

.The combination of high temperatures in the middle and upper
nineties along with high humidity will result in heat indices of
105 to 109 degrees from this afternoon through early this
evening.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-210000-
/O.CON.KSHV.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs,
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville,
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden,
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice,
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia,
Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, Zwolle,
Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, Montgomery,
Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, Olla, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Atlanta, Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City,
Jefferson, Longview, Marshall, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches,
Center, Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...High pressure aloft across the area will allow for
  temperatures to climb into the middle to upper nineties. These
  temperatures along with low level moisture will produce heat
  indices of 105 to 109 degrees.

* TIMING...Heat indices will be near 105 to 109 in the afternoon
  and early evening before lowering.

* IMPACT...Precautions should be taken to prevent heat related
  illnesses, including limiting outdoor work activities to the
  morning before temperatures rise and early evening after the
  readings lower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Take frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned
environments. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

A Tale of Depression

Again this situation was simple last night.  The center is hard to find, even now.  Satellite Imagery shows a lot of rain on one side or the other.    So a wave makes sense , and with the storm now having sustained winds at 35mph.   Plenty of shear and central pressure has risen to 1007mb.   They are trying to make an omelet without the egg.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)

activity_loop (4)

 

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.

The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.

The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH


 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN
NICARAGUA…NORTHERN HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z


GULFIR172311745

203938_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Trouble in the Tropics?

The Yucatan Peninsula is where Tropical Storm Harvey  will first encounter land.   And  as it does it will weaken.  It is only a bland tropical system as is.  Any interaction with land will weaken it, but trajectory is a huge issue.  Crossing the Peninsula diagonally is best for everyone but those who see significant swells, a few winds and perhap torrential rains.  I am not saying that it is good news for Southern Texas to Lake Carles, LA.

204351_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

As the 5PM REPORT Came out,  the diagonal path seems to write a different story from above.  There are two considerations.  The strength and its path.   I think perhaps the question is that the system is still only a rather weak TS and any encounter with land may cause it to weaken even further

Strongly feel that this storm may be downgraded and stay a Tropical Depression.  If it does reach TS again,  then something atypical would happening.  Apart from that, little change is expected, as per me.

 

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey,
with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but
poorly organized, convective area. Earlier reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting
an increased intensity. However, due to uncertainties in how
representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in
the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 275/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge
north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion
for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern
to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. After 72 h, a
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new
forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but
there were only minor changes in the direction. It should be noted
that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey
might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale
models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest
runs.

The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and
thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow
strengthening during this time. However, the GFS and ECMWF again
forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and
the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker
cyclone. This lowers the confidence in intensification. After
48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the
main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The
intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in
72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
120H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

…HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI…650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

GULFIR172302115       This satellite picture depicts an irregular storm center on the IR Loop.  It could better organize and center seems kind of oblique looking.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

GULFWV172301915

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

southeast

activity_loop (3)

This chart shows a lot of instability and a few showers and thunderstorms.   Pretty good indicator of enhanced convective activity.  I am not so certain of the forecast path and even a strong circulation.    Right now it is diffuse.  The next few hours may give a few answers.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) – DWWX–

Gert gets going, Stronger.

While winds are up too 100mph, it is moving NE and away from CONUS.  The other systems are looking for an energy source and a favorable field for development.  In lieu of all that,  these other systems are moving west but will eventfully find their place following Gert.  By the way Gert is the place  for systems to go because of lowest pressure.  More on that later.

Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
MSC035-067-170015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0124.170816T2238Z-170817T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
538 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Forrest County in southeastern Mississippi...
  Jones County in southeastern Mississippi...

* Until 715 PM CDT

* At 537 PM CDT, emergency management reported heavy rain across the
  warned area. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash
  flooding is already occurring. Jones County Emergency Management
  reported flooding on I-59 at Eastabuchie.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hattiesburg, Laurel, Petal, Ellisville, Sandersville, Mill Creek,
  Rawls Springs, Tuckers Crossing, Macedonia, Eastabuchie, Moselle
  and Ovett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
216 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon...

.Heat indices of at or above 108 are currently being observed
across a large portion of the advisory area.

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-170000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0006.170816T1916Z-170817T0000Z/
Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Cleveland, Dayton, Edna, El Campo, Freeport, Friendswood,
Galveston, Houston, Humble, Katy, Lake Jackson, League City,
Liberty, Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Palacios, Pasadena,
Pearland, Pierce, Richmond, Rosenberg, Sugar Land, Texas City,
Tomball, Wharton, and Winnie
216 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Heat Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* EVENT...Heat index values of 106 to 110 degrees across the
  advisory area.

* TIMING...This afternoon.

* IMPACT...Prolonged exposure to the heat and/or exertion outdoors
  without proper hydration and other precautionary actions may
  result in heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

&&

$$


houston

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-172030-
Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Wharton-
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat indices of 106-110 degrees are already occurring across the
area this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 PM this
evening. Please use caution when working outside and drink plenty
of water. Seek immediate medical attention if you suspect that you
or someone else is experiencing heat illness.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Hot afternoons will persist through the upcoming weekend. The
maximum heat indices each day are expected to range from 104 to
109 degrees.

images (7)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
413 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
413 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
into early this evening along and south of the Interstate 44
corridor. Additional thunderstorms will also develop across
central Kansas late this afternoon. This activity will congeal
into a line of thunderstorms which will then move southeast across
the Missouri Ozarks from later this evening into the overnight
period.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening,
mainly to the west of an Osage Beach to Springfield to Anderson
line. Large hail up to the size of quarters and damaging winds
will be possible with a few of the storms. There is a limited risk
for an isolated tornado this evening mainly west of an Osceola to
Greenfield to Neosho line.

Torrential rainfall can also be expected from these storms due to
high moisture content in the atmosphere. Flash flooding will
therefore be possible in areas where multiple storms move over
the same areas. The highest risk for flash flooding will be
across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms will occur through the
upcoming week and into the weekend.

Heat index values will be the 90s each day into the weekend and
as high as 100 by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening west of an
Osage Beach to Springfield to Anderson line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Schaumann



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Into Tonight...

.Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected across
portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri into tonight
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts exceeding
5 inches possible. Given the large amount of moisture in the
atmosphere, intense rainfall rates may quickly lead to flash
flooding.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103-171200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-170817T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Barton-Cedar-
Polk-Dallas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Newton-Lawrence-Christian-
McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Including the cities of Fort Scott, Pawnee Station, Chicopee,
Lone Oak, Pittsburg, Baxter Springs, Lowell, Riverton, Columbus,
Neutral, Sherwin, Stippville, NEVADA, Tiffin, Appleton City,
Johnson City, Weaubleau, Hermitage, Quincy, Wheatland,
Cross Timbers, Kenoma, Lamar, Cedar Springs, El Dorado Springs,
Filley, Arnica, Caplinger Mills, Stockton, Bolivar, Buffalo,
Charity, Foose, March, Plad, Windyville, Olive, Joplin, Carthage,
Greenfield, Lockwood, Meinert, Springfield, Marshfield,
Northview, Seymour, Rogersville, Neosho, Aurora, Mount Vernon,
Marionville, Nixa, Christian Center, Ozark, Selmore, Anderson,
Noel, Goodman, South West City, Pineville, Rocky Comfort, Monett,
Madry, Cassville, Kimberling City, Crane, Elsey, Indian Point,
and Silver Dollar City
227 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Kansas and Missouri, including the
  following areas, in southeast Kansas, Bourbon, Cherokee, and
  Crawford. In Missouri, Barry, Barton, Cedar, Christian, Dade,
  Dallas, Greene, Hickory, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton,
  Polk, St. Clair, Stone, Vernon, and Webster.

* Through Thursday morning

* Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected through
  tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with
  localized amounts over 5 inches possible. The rain will fall
  at a very rapid rate and may quickly lead to flash flooding.

* Areas that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms will see
  an increased risk for flash flooding. Rapid rises along area
  creeks and streams can be expected, along with the potential
  flooding of low water crossings. Motorists and campers should
  be especially alert for flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Another Random Circulation.

A tropical Cyclone in the Atlantic is moving North.  It is expected to continue to develop but to do that away from  the United States.   So, for now, totally great.  It was another hot day here and still very warm. Currently the temperature is 75 with Relative Humidity 99% and winds are CALM.  And it is nearly 10PM.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-132030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 /221 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening. The area of concern is generally west of a
line from Springview to Rose to Broken Bow.

Wind damage and very large hail, 2 inches or larger in diameter,
are the primary hazards. An isolated tornado may form and this
would be most likely to occur late in the afternoon or early this
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Sunday and Sunday night holds a risk for isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms across much of the area with the best
chances in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest
Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards.

Unsettled conditions continue Monday through Thursday with
thunderstorms forecast mainly in the afternoon and night.
However, the threat for strong or severe thunderstorms is
uncertain at this time.

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
NEC085-130730-
/O.NEW.KLBF.FF.W.0002.170813T0123Z-170813T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service North Platte NE
823 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

The National Weather Service in North Platte has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southern Hayes County in southwestern Nebraska...

* Until 230 AM CDT Sunday

* At 822 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
  already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hayes Center and Hamlet.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 inch is possible in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 10133 4055 10079 4041 10078 4035 10078
      4035 10134

$$

CDC



Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 12 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NEC005-007-009-013-017-029-031-033-041-045-047-049-057-063-069-
075-085-087-091-101-103-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-145-149-157-
161-165-171-130500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0449.170812T2100Z-170813T0500Z/

NE
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARTHUR               BANNER              BLAINE
BOX BUTTE            BROWN               CHASE
CHERRY               CHEYENNE            CUSTER
DAWES                DAWSON              DEUEL
DUNDY                FRONTIER            GARDEN
GRANT                HAYES               HITCHCOCK
HOOKER               KEITH               KEYA PAHA
KIMBALL              LINCOLN             LOGAN
LOUP                 MCPHERSON           MORRILL
PERKINS              RED WILLOW          ROCK
SCOTTS BLUFF         SHERIDAN            SIOUX
THOMAS

images (6)

images (21)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131100-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
702 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through mid evening. Cloud to
ground lightning and heavy rain will accompany some of these storms.
A few storms could produce winds gusts over 50 mph.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage along and north
of Interstate 20 late evening, possibly forming into a complex or
two that would move east across North Texas. Locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding will be the main threats during the overnight
hours. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for parts of North and
Northeast Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday through Tuesday, mainly
north of a line from Comanche to Palestine. The better rain chances
will continue to be north of Interstate 20. Coverage of storms will
be isolated to scattered and severe weather is not expected.

Heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees will be common each
afternoon through next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested through 10 PM.
Timely reports of flash flooding are also appreciated.

$$



 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXC097-181-130245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-170813T0245Z/
Cooke TX-Grayson TX-
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COOKE AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Callisburg, or
near Whitesboro, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 65 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Denison, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood,
Eisenhower State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

If on or near Lake Texoma, get off of from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683
      3387 9680 3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9666
      3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9654
      3359 9658 3366 9708 3382 9705 3386 9706
      3384 9705 3389 9698 3395 9699 3394 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 273DEG 18KT 3374 9694

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...65MPH

$$

24-Bain



 

Severe Weather Statement

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXC097-181-130245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0314.000000T0000Z-170813T0245Z/
Cooke TX-Grayson TX-
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN COOKE AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES...

At 847 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Callisburg, or
near Whitesboro, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 65 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Denison, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood,
Eisenhower State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

If on or near Lake Texoma, get off of from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Do not be caught on the water in a
thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683
      3387 9680 3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9666
      3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9654
      3359 9658 3366 9708 3382 9705 3386 9706
      3384 9705 3389 9698 3395 9699 3394 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 273DEG 18KT 3374 9694

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...65MPH

$$

24-Bain



 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
835 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

TXZ092-093-130200-
Grayson TX-Cooke TX-
835 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COOKE AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 835 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Callisburg, or 9 miles northwest of Whitesboro, moving east at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sherman, Whitesboro, Pottsboro, Callisburg, Knollwood, Eisenhower
State Park, southern Lake Texoma, Southmayd and Sadler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9663 3389 9658 3385 9663 3382 9658
      3359 9659 3365 9711 3372 9711 3374 9709
      3380 9709 3382 9705 3384 9706 3384 9703
      3389 9689 3385 9686 3387 9683 3387 9679
      3382 9675 3384 9669 3392 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 269DEG 22KT 3374 9702

$$

24-Bain



 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...Flash Flood Watch in effect this evening and overnight for
parts of North and Northeast Texas....

TXZ092>095-105>107-130730-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.A.0005.170813T0000Z-170813T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-
Including the cities of Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham,
Paris, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, and Sulphur Springs
621 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of north central Texas and northeast Texas, including
  the following areas, in north central Texas, Cooke, Fannin,
  Grayson, and Hunt. In northeast Texas, Delta, Hopkins, and
  Lamar.

* Through Sunday morning

* Numerous thunderstorms are expected to affect areas near the
  Red River overnight. Localized rainfall totals over 3 inches
  are possible in the Watch area which may lead to flash
  flooding.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain which may lead to flash flooding. You should monitor the
latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and be
prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued for
your area.

images (22)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
426 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

AZZ004>018-037>040-130230-
Kaibab Plateau-Marble and Glen Canyons-Grand Canyon Country-
Coconino Plateau-Yavapai County Mountains-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward-Chinle Valley-
Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County-
Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Northern Gila County-Yavapai County Valleys and Basins-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264-
426 AM MST Sat Aug 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Apache...Coconino...
Northern Gila...Navajo...and Yavapai Counties in Northern
Arizona.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Lingering monsoon moisture will lead to scattered showers and
thundertorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Some local
areas could see heavy rain lead to flash flooding, and this will
be the main concern. Small hail and gusty winds are also possible
with stronger cells.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Expect typical monsoon weather conditions Sunday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm threats will include
lightning, heavy rain, and small hail. Drier air will bring
decreasing thunderstorm activity Monday, with little to no chance
of storms Tuesday through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

$$


 

Flood Advisory

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
654 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130445-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FA.Y.0055.170813T0154Z-170813T0445Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
654 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 945 PM MST

* At 650 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
  large area of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall over central
  Yavapai county. This will cause many instances of minor flooding
  in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Chino Valley, Prescott Valley, Prescott, Dewey-humboldt, Skull
  Valley, Williamson Valley, Iron Springs and White Spar Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper
than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough
to sweep vehicles off the road. When encountering flooded roads, make
the smart choice: turn around, don`t drown.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 11223 3448 11222 3451 11241 3444 11284
      3467 11270 3483 11247

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
647 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130300-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-170813T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
647 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 640 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
moderate to heavy rainfall had moved back into the warning area.
About a half inch of additional rainfall in expected in the West
Clear Creek drainage, located east of Camp Verde and near Bullpen
Ranch. Therefore, the Flash Flood Warning will continue.

River gages on West Clear Creek near the Bullpen Swimming area
reported about a rise of about a foot. Other smaller creeks and
washes in the region may experience higher rises.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bullpen Swimming Area and Clear Creek Campgrounds.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Walker Creek...
Long Canyon...Verde River and West Clear Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 11157 3453 11157 3452 11167 3452 11171
      3451 11173 3451 11183 3452 11181 3453 11176
      3459 11171 3461 11164

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
636 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

AZC025-130330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170813T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai-
636 PM MST SAT AUG 12 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST FOR
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 630 PM MST, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated that
heavy rainfall was moving quickly east of the Rimrock, Lake
Montezuma, McGuireville and Camp Verde areas. Light rain was still
occurring in the warning location.

River gages on Beaver Creek reported a 4 foot rise at 625 PM MST.
Additional rises are likely as runoff moves into the basin.

Spotters are reporting anywhere from 1 t 4 inches of rain.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Camp Verde, Montezuma Castle National Monument, Middle Verde,
Mcguireville and Lake Montezuma.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Beaver Creek...
Cherry Creek...Russell Wash...Dry Beaver Creek...Oak Creek...West
Clear Creek...Grief Hill Wash...Verde River and Gaddis Wash.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 11178 3464 11175 3458 11178 3454 11184
      3458 11197 3469 11194

$$

 

images (19)

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
247 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FOR ZONES 640, 642,
643, 644, AND 645...

.A trough of low pressure will cross the area, generating
scattered thunderstorms across the higher elevations through this
evening.

ORZ640-642>645-WAZ643-645-130600-
/O.CON.KPDT.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170813T0600Z/
Central Mountains of Oregon-
Southern Blue and Strawberry Mountains-
Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon-Central Blue Mountains-
Wallowa District-Blue Mountains of Washington-Asotin County-
247 PM PDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...

* LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL...3.

* PRECIPITATION...A tenth to a quarter of an inch.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

images (7)


Bye To Tropical Storm Franklin

two_atl_2d0 (15)

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 19.8N 98.3W at 10/1200 
UTC or about 50 nm ENE of Mexico City moving W at 13 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is from 18N-22N between 94W-97W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-22N between
93W-102w. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 10N32W to 21N30W moving W at 5-10 
kt. The wave coincides with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing 
between 27W-40W. A 1013 mb low is embedded within the monsoon
trough at the southern extent of the wave axis near 10N32W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 33W-36W.

A tropical wave extends from 12N62W to 22N57W moving W at 10-15 
kt. A 1013 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 19N59W 
providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 18N-22N 
between 54W-60W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N85W to 19N84W moving W at 10-15 
kt. The wave remains embedded within middle to upper level low 
centered over the western Caribbean Sea near 16N84W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 06N-16N between 76W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 
12N28W to 06N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N42W to 04N52W. Aside from convection associated with the 
tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N 
between 13W-25W...and from 07N-12N between 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary focus this morning is Tropical Storm Franklin as it 
moves across interior portions of east-central Mexico and
continues to weaken. Scattered showers and strong tstms continue 
to impact the SW Gulf waters generally S of 22N W of 93W. 
Elsewhere across the basin...an upper level ridge anchored over 
the Rio Grande River valley extends an axis eastward over the 
northern Gulf and Florida peninsula. At the surface...mostly 
gentle to moderate SE winds prevail under relatively tranquil 
conditions. An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the Bahamas and western Cuba that continues to support a 
surface trough analyzed from the Florida Straits near 24N81W N-NE
to western Grand Bahama Island to 30N78W. This trough is forecast
to continue moving westward and bring increased cloudiness and 
precipitation to the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters
through tonight. The trough is expected to stall across Florida 
Friday night into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor 
across the north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and
tranquil conditions for the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
An upper level low is centered over the western Caribbean near
16N84W. In addition...a tropical wave is analyzed along 85W and 
both features continue to generate scattered showers and tstms 
across portions of Central America and the SW Caribbean generally 
S of 16N between 76W-85W. The upper level low is forecast to move
west and weaken over Central America while the tropical wave 
moves into the East Pacific region. Farther east...the remainder 
of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of 
mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with moderate to 
fresh trades prevailing. A few scattered showers and tstms are 
occurring across the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 63W-68W as
a tropical wave currently along 60W begins to impact the Lesser 
Antilles and eastern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail this morning 
across the island. Overall dry conditions are expected through 
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is centered over the Florida
Straits and western Cuba this morning and reflects a surface 
trough analyzed from 24N81W to 30N78W. The surface trough 
provides focus for widely scattered showers and tstms from 23N- 
28N between 75W-81W. The upper level trough is expected to become
absorbed by an upper level low centered over the western 
Caribbean Sea later today. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW 
North Atlc lies under the influence of a broad upper level trough 
over the eastern CONUS. The troughing supports a stationary front
extending from offshore of the Outer Banks to coastal Georgia 
with scattered showers and isolated tstms generally remaining N of
32N W of 73W. Farther east...another upper level low is centered 
near 23N57W that continues to enhance convection in the vicinity 
of the tropical wave between 55W-65W and a dissipating stationary
front analyzed along 27N. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
from 23N-28N between 53W-63W. The stationary front links E-NE to 
a 1018 mb low centered near 32N38W. Isolated showers and tstms 
are occurring in the vicinity of the low N of 26N between 36W- 
44W.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm, which made landfall overnight in eastern Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located about a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands have changed little overnight. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the weekend while the
system moves northwestward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although development is not anticipated,
this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of the
Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

offshores

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

An upper level low pressure system coupled with a rather moist
atmosphere resulted in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, across portions of deep east Texas and
north central Louisiana this morning. Rainfall rates upwards of
around two inches per hour across north central Louisiana pose a
threat for flash flooding, especially across low lying and poor
drainage roadways. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 10 AM
CDT for La Salle, Grant, Winn, Caldwell, Jackson, Ouachita,
Lincoln and Union Parishes.

By early this afternoon, the threat for heavy rainfall will be on
the decline as the precipitation commence to wane. However,
daytime destabilization may lead to the resurgence of additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Four-State region, before diminishing shortly after sunset.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Precipitation coverage will be on the rise Friday through early
next week, as a series of embedded disturbances within northwest
flow aloft interacts with a moist atmosphere. Gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall and consequently localized flooding
will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ECI8 (5)POE_Thumb

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

An upper level low pressure system coupled with a rather moist
atmosphere resulted in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, across portions of deep east Texas and
north central Louisiana this morning. Rainfall rates upwards of
around two inches per hour across north central Louisiana pose a
threat for flash flooding, especially across low lying and poor
drainage roadways. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 10 AM
CDT for La Salle, Grant, Winn, Caldwell, Jackson, Ouachita,
Lincoln and Union Parishes.

By early this afternoon, the threat for heavy rainfall will be on
the decline as the precipitation commence to wane. However,
daytime destabilization may lead to the resurgence of additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Four-State region, before diminishing shortly after sunset.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Precipitation coverage will be on the rise Friday through early
next week, as a series of embedded disturbances within northwest
flow aloft interacts with a moist atmosphere. Gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall and consequently localized flooding
will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed for rainfall and potential flood
reports this morning through early afternoon.

$$



images (20)

Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-101715-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of El Dorado, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston,
Farmerville, Bernice, Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport,
Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro,
Monroe, Many, Zwolle, Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield,
Colfax, Montgomery, Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena,
Midway, Olla, Nacogdoches, Center, Lufkin, San Augustine,
Hemphill, and Pineland
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NOW...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to shift
southeastward at 10 mph across much of northwest and north
central Louisiana. Some embedded storms remain from Pleasant Hill
and Coushatta to near Powhatan with minor flooding. Rainfall
amounts will range widely from around a tenth inch to as much as
another inch over the next two hours with some flooding in low
lying and poor drainage areas. Roads may also experience lingering
water with slow to drain out flooding especially near low water
crossings. Turn around, don`t drown. Elsewhere from Deep East
Texas and North Louisiana and South Arkansas new small showers are
cropping up as daytime heating commences.

$$

24




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
LAC127-101700-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FF.W.0032.170810T1359Z-170810T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
859 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Eastern Winn Parish in north central Louisiana...

* Until noon CDT

* At 856 AM CDT, local law enforcement report continued flooding
  with heavy rain ending across the warned area. Up to two inches of
  rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring with
  many highways inundated.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Winnfield, Dodson, Sikes, Joyce and Hudson.

Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the
southern portions of the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Rip Current Statement

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...

.HURRICANE FRANKLIN MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANKLIN TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES AND ALLOW STRONGER WAVE RUN-UP WITH WATER REACHING THE
DUNES.

TXZ242-243-245-247-110000-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.Y.0015.170810T1241Z-170811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCRP.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-170811T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-ARANSAS-CALHOUN-
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WAVE RUN UP INTO THE DUNES RESULTING IN LIMITED TO
  IMPOSSIBLE BEACH DRIVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
  AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
  ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND
FLOAT. DON`T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY MEANS THAT SWELL ENERGY FROM
FRANKLIN WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE DUNES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. IT IS ADVISED TO NOT DRIVE ALONG AREA BEACH ROADS TODAY.

&&

$$

HEAVENER



Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1012 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ234-242>247-101700-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Victoria-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-
Calhoun-
Including the cities of Victoria, Kingsville, Corpus Christi,
Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton, Mathis, Rockport,
Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
1012 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NOW...
Through 12 PM CDT, isolated showers will continue to move to the
northwest across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters and move inland
across the Coastal Bend and into the Victoria Crossroads. Rainfall
will generally be light to moderate at times with accumulations
less than a tenth of an inch.

$$

TJC




Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1007 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

TXZ234-242>247-102200-
Victoria-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Victoria, Kingsville, Corpus Christi,
Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton, Mathis, Rockport,
Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
1007 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Tropical funnel clouds possible today...

The atmosphere will be favorable for the development of tropical
funnel clouds today. Most of these funnel clouds will be short
lived. However, you should be prepared to seek shelter in the
event a funnel does reach the ground.

$$

Heavener



Coastal Flood Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...

.HURRICANE FRANKLIN MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANKLIN TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES AND ALLOW STRONGER WAVE RUN-UP WITH WATER REACHING THE
DUNES.

TXZ242-243-245-247-110000-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.Y.0015.170810T1241Z-170811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCRP.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-170811T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-ARANSAS-CALHOUN-
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WAVE RUN UP INTO THE DUNES RESULTING IN LIMITED TO
  IMPOSSIBLE BEACH DRIVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
  AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
  ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND
FLOAT. DON`T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY MEANS THAT SWELL ENERGY FROM
FRANKLIN WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE DUNES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. IT IS ADVISED TO NOT DRIVE ALONG AREA BEACH ROADS TODAY.

&&

$$images (5)

HEAVENER



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

TXZ229>234-239>247-110000-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
430 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across South
Texas today. Thunderstorms are not expected to become severe at
this time.

There is a high risk of rip currents for Gulf facing beaches
today.

Afternoon heat index values will range from 105 to 109 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday over
all but the western quarter of South Texas.

Afternoon heat index values will be between 105 and 113 degrees this
weekend into the middle of next week across much of the area. Heat
advisories may also be needed at times over the Southern Coastal
Bend, Southern Brush Country, and Rio Grande Plains, as heat indices
meet or exceed 110 degrees or more for a few hours each day

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
536 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

CAZ280>282-284-110045-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0027.170810T1900Z-170811T0500Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
536 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282 AND 284...

* Affected area: In Northern CA...all of Siskiyou County in Fire
  Weather Zones 280...281...282 and 284.

* Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning
  activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and
  shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms.

* Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result
  in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute
  to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are
  possible. Areas that received little or no rainfall in the
  past 24 hours are at higher risk for new starts.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered
thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where
many fire starts may occur in a short period of time.

Out of the Yucatan. Next stop Campeche

The timing is what was expected.  The pressure was fairly high at 1002mb.   The winds 35-40kts sustained and movement WNW at 10-12kts.  As it goes over the Bay of Compeche, it will strengthen up to near Hurricane Strength.

And once it make it makes landfall,  its dissipation will be quite soon.  One other variable  is a continued WNW track or NW.  It’s landfall would be later but that really is not going to happen.

Satellite imagery is showing a ragged center with the circulation depicting just that.

GULFWV172201715

southmissvly

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.  HGX_loop

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090845-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall continues to fall across much of the Houston Metro
this morning. A steady moderate to heavy rain is expected to
continue throughout the morning hours and into the daytime today.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Harris, Wharton, Fort Bend,
Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty counties until 8 AM,
but may be extended depending on how the system evolves over the
next several hours. If you are under a Flash Flood Warning and are
in a safe place, do not attempt to leave. If you must be on the
roads, do not drive through flooded roadways and report any
flooding to local law enforcement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible on
Wednesday. Some of these thunderstorms may be capable of brief
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooding to the NWS or local law
enforcement if they can do so safely.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-091300-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170809T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chambers-Harris-Liberty-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-
Including the cities of Anahuac, Cleveland, Coldspring, Conroe,
Corrigan, Dayton, Houston, Humble, Katy, Liberty, Livingston,
Mont Belvieu, Onalaska, Pasadena, Shepherd, The Woodlands,
Tomball, Willis, and Winnie
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Texas...including the following
  counties...Chambers...Harris...Liberty...Montgomery...Polk and
  San Jacinto.

* Through Wednesday morning

* Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
  widespread across the watch area this evening and continue into
  Wednesday. Rainfall over the past few days has led to saturated
  soil conditions. Storms that repeatably move over the same
  locations with rainfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour will
  lead to flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway.  The water depth may be too great to allow your car to
cross safely.  Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned
quickly.  If your vehicle stalls...abandon it and seek higher
ground immediately.  Rapidly rising water may engulf your vehicle
and its occupants and sweep them away.  Move to higher ground.

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$



Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...

  Greens Bayou At U.S. Hwy 59 affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris
  Greens Bayou At Ley Road affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris


For Greens Bayou at U.S. Hwy 59...Ley Road, Minor flooding is occuring, with
Moderate flooding forecasted.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few
days.



Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

TXC201-082156-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0035.170808T1731Z-170809T0142Z/
/GBLT2.1.ER.170808T1731Z.170808T1800Z.170808T1942Z.NO/
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Greens Bayou At Ley Road.
* from this afternoon to this evening...or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0445 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise to
  near 30.4 feet by this afternoon.the river will fall below flood stage by this
  afternoon.
* At 30.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gage.



&&
                     Flood  Observed             Forecast 6 AM
Location             Stage  Stage   Day Time     Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Greens Bayou
  Ley Road             30    11.1   Tue 05 AM     16.1    4.9    3.5

images (18)

Air Quality Alert

WAC005-013-021-037-039-071-077-091800-
Benton-Columbia-Franklin-Kittitas-Klickitat-Walla Walla-Yakima-
Including the cities of Kennewick, Richland, Benton City, Prosser,
West Richland, Hanford, Dayton, Starbuck, Pasco, Connell,
Ellensburg, Cle Elum, Easton, Goldendale, White Salmon, Trout Lake,
Bickleton, Roosevelt, College Place, Walla Walla, Burbank,
Waitsburg, Prescott, Grandview, Sunnyside, Toppenish, Yakima,
Granger, Mabton, Selah, Wapato, White Swan, Zillah, Naches,
and Cliffdell
1030 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY...

The Washington State Department of Ecology has issued an Air Quality
Alert...in effect until noon PDT Saturday for the following counties:

Kittitas
Yakima
Klickitat
Benton
Franklin
Walla Walla
Columbia

A Smoke Air Quality Alert has been issued. Wildfires burning in the
region combined with forecasted conditions will cause air quality to
reach unhealthy levels.

Pollutants in smoke can cause burning eyes, runny nose, aggravate
heart and lung diseases, and aggravate other serious health
problems. Children, the elderly, and individuals with respiratory
illnesses are most at risk of serious health effects. If you
experience respiratory distress, you should speak with your
physician. Limit outdoor activities and keep children indoors if it
is smoky. Please follow medical advice if you have a heart or lung
condition.

Information about air quality is on the Washington Department of
Ecology Web site at http://www.ecy.wa.gov/air.html or call 360-407-
6000.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...Hot temperatures expected for much of the week...

.High pressure will keep hot and dry conditions over much of the
inland Northwest for much of the week.

WAZ026-027-082300-
/O.NEW.KPDT.HT.Y.0003.170808T2000Z-170811T0300Z/
Kittitas Valley-Yakima Valley-
including the cities of Ellensburg, Thorp, Naches, Sunnyside,
Toppenish, and Yakima
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Pendleton has issued a Heat
Advisory...which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM
PDT Thursday.

* HIGH TEMPERATURES...101 to 105.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Those working or spending extended periods outdoors
  will be at increased risk of heat illness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot afternoon temperatures and warm
overnight temperatures will combine to create a situation in
which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay
in an air conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check up
on relatives and neighbors.
SREF_H5__f081

Hurricane/Tropical Franklin

Well,  that was easy and will remain so.  From Tropical Storm to Hurricane and back to a Tropical Storm.   Are we clear now?  It was pretty easy as far as a prediction is concerned.   As Franklin move towards the Yucatan

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

Visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized
tropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of
the convective cloud tops. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core,
which is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the
visible imagery. The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a
blend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along
with sampling considerations. Franklin has a well-defined,
symmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is
still expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near
hurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against
rapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur
due to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening
over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast.
Although northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat,
Franklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making
landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast.

Based on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary
and microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or
310/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically
unchanged. A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a
west-northwestward to westward course for the next several days.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
96H 11/1800Z…DISSIPATED

As mentioned above there are considerations as upper warming and some sheering.   The possibility of a strong Hurricane is not likely.   Tropical Storm Franklin will hastily dissipate because of it’s interaction with the Yucatan and then mostly a marginal Hurricane.  For the people in Mexico be advised that any Hurricane can be very dangerous no matter the strength and that is even true for Tropical Storms.

Nearing the Mexican Coastline,  the big issue will be winds,  flooding and potential for a few tornadoes in the Southeatern Quadrant of the storm and a few waterspouts.  (Tornadoes over water).    Frequent Lighting and power outages will be widespread.,

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

GULFIR172200045

HTX_loop (1)

Franklin is not the only story, even as these storms over portions of Alabama this evening.  The weather over Alabama are not related to the Tropical Weather.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
217 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-081100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
217 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue into the evening
and overnight hours, as a weak frontal boundary shifts south through
the area. A few of these storms could become strong and produce gusty
winds. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is possible which may
lead to instances of flash flooding in low lying and urban areas,
especially south of the Tennessee River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

A stalled frontal boundary just south of the area will keep isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast most of the
upcoming week.

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms develops again toward
the end of the week and into the weekend as this boundary moves
north over the area. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
during this timeframe, possibly producing some flash flooding.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

$$


 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
750 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

ALC103-080230-
/O.CON.KHUN.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170808T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morgan AL-
750 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that earlier thunderstorms produced heavy rain over the warned area.
Two to three inches of rain have already fallen, with additional
light rain expected to continue over the next two hours. Flash
flooding may be occurring along low-lying spots and near streams and
creeks.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Decatur, Hartselle, Priceville, Trinity, Somerville and Basham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.