Harvey II (for now)

 

 

 

 


211729WPCQPF_sm

 



 

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT HARVEY HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 525 MI…845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 460 MI…740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 92.5 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 2 mph (4
km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster
forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast
track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Harvey could become a tropical storm later tonight
and a hurricane on Friday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data and Mexican surface observations is 1003 mb
(29.62 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Mansfield to High Island…4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
* NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 92.6W

211729_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High-resolution visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern
of Harvey is a little better organized than it was this morning, but
the system lacks distinct banding features. Surface synoptic
observations, ASCAT data, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB indicated that the cyclone has not strengthened, so the current
intensity is held at 30 kt. The global models predict that an
upper-level low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will essentially
dissipate in a day or so. Therefore, Harvey is expected to remain
in a relatively low-shear environment up to the Texas coast.
Moreover, ocean analyses show that a warm eddy that broke off from
the Loop Current has drifted westward across the Gulf to a location
near the projected path of Harvey. This would also be conducive to
strengthening, so it is likely that the system will become a
hurricane prior to landfall, although this is not explicitly shown
in the NHC forecast for which landfall is indicated between 48 and
72 hours.

Based on the scatterometer data and geostationary satellite fixes
the center hasn’t moved much this afternoon, although recent imagery
suggests a northwestward drift at about 320/2 kt. A weak mid-level
ridge to the northeast of Harvey should cause the cyclone to move
on a northwestward or north-northwestward track through 48 hours.
Later, steering currents weaken as a ridge builds over the
southwestern United States and a trough drops down from the Plains.
As a result, Harvey should decelerate while making landfall and
move very slowly just inland of the coast. Some of the track
guidance models, such as the HWRF, have shifted southwestward in
comparison to their previous run. The official track forecast is
very close to the previous one through 48 hours and is a little
slower and to the west after that time. This is very close to the
latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. It should be noted that
synoptic surveillance data are currently being collected by the NOAA
G-IV jet aircraft and these data will be assimilated into, and
hopefully improve the forecasts by, the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy
rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions
of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern
Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday
through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High
Island, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the
next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is
based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best
represents the flooding potential in those locations within the
watch area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 21.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND211729_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211729.shtml?gm_track#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211729.shtml?wsurge#contents

 

The top-2 links are very informative and for people along those areas, these links might be very useful to you.

GMZ001-240845-  Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico  434 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017      .SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is centered near 21.6N  92.6W at 5 PM EDT, moving NW, or 312 degrees at 2 kt. Maximum  sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40 kt. Harvey is forecast  to intensify to tropical storm strength this evening, moving  inland over southern Texas Friday night.    $$


GMZ011-240845-  NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-  434 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

 TROPICAL STORM WARNING    TONIGHT  E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.  THU  NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, building to 11 ft  in the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

 THU NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E winds 25 to  30 kt,increasing to 35 to 40 kt late. Seas 17 ft, building to 24  ft late. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. FRI   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SE winds 45 to 55  kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Scattered showers and isolated  thunderstorms.

 FRI NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds  45 to 55 kt. Seas 18 ft, subsiding to 13 ft late.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

 SAT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  

SAT NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

 SUN  S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

 SUN NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

 MON NIGHT  SW to W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.

 

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More fun With Harvey

Ole Harvery is a stubborn and vexing system.   I like the caveat “In any case, it will cause heavy rain”.   Captain Obious has that right. lol.    The heavy rain-maker is a given anyhow.    Oddly enough there has been some Anti-Cyclonic in the Central Gulf of Mexico.

With some of that cloudiness disappearing and convection being to fire up, it is something to be mindful of. Harvey will experience some drag over the Yucatan Peninsula.   It’s strength and trajectory in the next 1-2 days will affect this sys

I am still leaning towards a strong Tropical Wave or System (depression)  Maybe  it needs an SSRI. Smh.

Disturbance two will form over Florida and most of that will veer away causing only winds, rains and high surf.

two_atl_2d0 (23)

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula
and adjacent water areas are associated with the remnants of Harvey.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development when the system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight,
and a tropical depression is expected to form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread
westward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day
or so. Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends from 24N87W to 13N88W moving W-NW at 
10-15 kt. The remnant circulation of Harvey continues to be 
analyzed as a 1011 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 
18N88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 
18N-23N between 79W-89W. Satellite images and surface 
observations indicates the low is along the coast of N Belize. 
Tropical cyclone development is expected when the system moves 
over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread 
westward across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 
day or so. There is a high chance for this system to become a 
tropical cyclone within 48 hours. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 24N29W to 10N32W moving W at 15-20 
kt. A 1011 mb low pressure precedes the wave centered near 
12N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N between 
25W-33W. This wave in a moist area based on TPW imagery and has a
well pronounced 700 mb trough.

A tropical wave extends from Puerto Rico near 19N67W to Venezuela
near 10N68W, moving W at 20-25 kt. Isolated showers are within 120
nm of the wave axis. Subtle troughing is noted on 700 mb streamline
analysis. Some moisture is observed on either side of the wave 
axis based on the SSMI TPW animation. This wave will cross the 
central Caribbean through mid-week.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 18N27W to 12N38W to 
07N42W to 07N46W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis 
continues from 07N46W to 06N58W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 08N-14N 
between 12W-17W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N 
between 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
30N. 10-15 kt easterly surface flow is over the N Gulf. The
northern extent of a tropical wave is producing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection over the SE Gulf of Mexico, Yucatan
Channel, and the N Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are also advecting over S Florida from the 
Atlantic. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the W Gulf near 27N91W enhancing showers. Expect over the next 24
hours for the upper level low to remain quasi-stationary and 
continue to produce showers. Looking ahead, the remnant low of 
Harvey and tropical wave, will traverse the Yucatan Peninsula 
today, and then move into the Bay of Campeche Wednesday, where 
redevelopment to a tropical cyclone appears likely.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnant low of Harvey currently located over N Belize continues
to be the primary area of concern across the basin. Please, see 
Special Features section for more details. A tropical wave is over
the eastern Caribbean. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for
details. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow are noted over parts of the east and central Caribbean. 
Fresh SE winds are observed per scatterometer data across the 
central Caribbean, but mainly N of 13N. These winds are the result
of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the 
remnant low of Harvey. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently, showers are over SW Haiti. However,daytime heating, 
local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will combined with 
available moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours today. The next tropical 
wave is forecast to pass just south of the island tonight into 
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough of low pressure continues to move westward across the
Bahamas and now extends from 29N77W across the N Bahamas to
central Cuba near 22N79W. This system continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with fresh to strong winds
mainly on its NW side based on scatterometer data. Only slow 
development of this system is anticipated today while it moves 
west-northwestward towards Florida. Farther east, there is 
another surface trough that extends 24N55W to 16N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 23N-25N between 51W-54W. An upper- 
level low is also centered near 27N59W. A 1022 mb high is centered
W of Bermuda near 32N72W. Another 1022 mb high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 32N48W. The tail end of a cold front is
over the E Atlantic from 31N32W to 28N40W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front.  

two_atl_5d0 (14)

activity_loop (5)

Some of this energy above will result in more thunderstorms and some WILL be severe.

pwtr

300mb

mxth

The bottom-most map over the Southwest shows mixing. The biggest of which will naturally occur near the coastline, where land and sea (mix). When this mixing happens in tandem with forcing,  you have more available moisture and lift.

sfnt (1)

sfnt (1)

A Tale of Depression

Again this situation was simple last night.  The center is hard to find, even now.  Satellite Imagery shows a lot of rain on one side or the other.    So a wave makes sense , and with the storm now having sustained winds at 35mph.   Plenty of shear and central pressure has risen to 1007mb.   They are trying to make an omelet without the egg.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)

activity_loop (4)

 

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,
at least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear. The convective
area near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and
overall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a
tropical cyclone. Based on the decay and data from the aircraft
mission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical
depression. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
will investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation
still exists.

The intensity forecast is problematic. The current shear should
subside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds
to this by forecasting significant strengthening. On the other
hand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where
it may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as
suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in
showing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.
However, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system
degenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the
next 72 h.

The initial motion remains 275/19. There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only
minor tweaks to the forecast track. A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its
remnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the
next 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north
of Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should
cause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward
speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey
should pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then
cross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.

A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the
northern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight. At
the present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey
will actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not
warranted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
96H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH


 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…NORTHERN
NICARAGUA…NORTHERN HONDURAS…BELIZE…AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY. WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 70.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.3N 73.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 80.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 83.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.0N 89.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 90NE 30SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 70.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z


GULFIR172311745

203938_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Trouble in the Tropics?

The Yucatan Peninsula is where Tropical Storm Harvey  will first encounter land.   And  as it does it will weaken.  It is only a bland tropical system as is.  Any interaction with land will weaken it, but trajectory is a huge issue.  Crossing the Peninsula diagonally is best for everyone but those who see significant swells, a few winds and perhap torrential rains.  I am not saying that it is good news for Southern Texas to Lake Carles, LA.

204351_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

As the 5PM REPORT Came out,  the diagonal path seems to write a different story from above.  There are two considerations.  The strength and its path.   I think perhaps the question is that the system is still only a rather weak TS and any encounter with land may cause it to weaken even further

Strongly feel that this storm may be downgraded and stay a Tropical Depression.  If it does reach TS again,  then something atypical would happening.  Apart from that, little change is expected, as per me.

 

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey,
with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but
poorly organized, convective area. Earlier reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting
an increased intensity. However, due to uncertainties in how
representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in
the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 275/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge
north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion
for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern
to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. After 72 h, a
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new
forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but
there were only minor changes in the direction. It should be noted
that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey
might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale
models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest
runs.

The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and
thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow
strengthening during this time. However, the GFS and ECMWF again
forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and
the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker
cyclone. This lowers the confidence in intensification. After
48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the
main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The
intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in
72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
120H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

…HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI…650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

GULFIR172302115       This satellite picture depicts an irregular storm center on the IR Loop.  It could better organize and center seems kind of oblique looking.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

GULFWV172301915

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

southeast

activity_loop (3)

This chart shows a lot of instability and a few showers and thunderstorms.   Pretty good indicator of enhanced convective activity.  I am not so certain of the forecast path and even a strong circulation.    Right now it is diffuse.  The next few hours may give a few answers.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) – DWWX–

Gert gets going, Stronger.

While winds are up too 100mph, it is moving NE and away from CONUS.  The other systems are looking for an energy source and a favorable field for development.  In lieu of all that,  these other systems are moving west but will eventfully find their place following Gert.  By the way Gert is the place  for systems to go because of lowest pressure.  More on that later.

Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
MSC035-067-170015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0124.170816T2238Z-170817T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
538 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Forrest County in southeastern Mississippi...
  Jones County in southeastern Mississippi...

* Until 715 PM CDT

* At 537 PM CDT, emergency management reported heavy rain across the
  warned area. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash
  flooding is already occurring. Jones County Emergency Management
  reported flooding on I-59 at Eastabuchie.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hattiesburg, Laurel, Petal, Ellisville, Sandersville, Mill Creek,
  Rawls Springs, Tuckers Crossing, Macedonia, Eastabuchie, Moselle
  and Ovett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
216 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon...

.Heat indices of at or above 108 are currently being observed
across a large portion of the advisory area.

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-170000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0006.170816T1916Z-170817T0000Z/
Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Cleveland, Dayton, Edna, El Campo, Freeport, Friendswood,
Galveston, Houston, Humble, Katy, Lake Jackson, League City,
Liberty, Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Palacios, Pasadena,
Pearland, Pierce, Richmond, Rosenberg, Sugar Land, Texas City,
Tomball, Wharton, and Winnie
216 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Heat Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* EVENT...Heat index values of 106 to 110 degrees across the
  advisory area.

* TIMING...This afternoon.

* IMPACT...Prolonged exposure to the heat and/or exertion outdoors
  without proper hydration and other precautionary actions may
  result in heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

&&

$$


houston

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-172030-
Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Wharton-
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat indices of 106-110 degrees are already occurring across the
area this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 PM this
evening. Please use caution when working outside and drink plenty
of water. Seek immediate medical attention if you suspect that you
or someone else is experiencing heat illness.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Hot afternoons will persist through the upcoming weekend. The
maximum heat indices each day are expected to range from 104 to
109 degrees.

images (7)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
413 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
413 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
into early this evening along and south of the Interstate 44
corridor. Additional thunderstorms will also develop across
central Kansas late this afternoon. This activity will congeal
into a line of thunderstorms which will then move southeast across
the Missouri Ozarks from later this evening into the overnight
period.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening,
mainly to the west of an Osage Beach to Springfield to Anderson
line. Large hail up to the size of quarters and damaging winds
will be possible with a few of the storms. There is a limited risk
for an isolated tornado this evening mainly west of an Osceola to
Greenfield to Neosho line.

Torrential rainfall can also be expected from these storms due to
high moisture content in the atmosphere. Flash flooding will
therefore be possible in areas where multiple storms move over
the same areas. The highest risk for flash flooding will be
across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms will occur through the
upcoming week and into the weekend.

Heat index values will be the 90s each day into the weekend and
as high as 100 by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening west of an
Osage Beach to Springfield to Anderson line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Schaumann



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Into Tonight...

.Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected across
portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri into tonight
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts exceeding
5 inches possible. Given the large amount of moisture in the
atmosphere, intense rainfall rates may quickly lead to flash
flooding.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103-171200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-170817T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Barton-Cedar-
Polk-Dallas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Newton-Lawrence-Christian-
McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Including the cities of Fort Scott, Pawnee Station, Chicopee,
Lone Oak, Pittsburg, Baxter Springs, Lowell, Riverton, Columbus,
Neutral, Sherwin, Stippville, NEVADA, Tiffin, Appleton City,
Johnson City, Weaubleau, Hermitage, Quincy, Wheatland,
Cross Timbers, Kenoma, Lamar, Cedar Springs, El Dorado Springs,
Filley, Arnica, Caplinger Mills, Stockton, Bolivar, Buffalo,
Charity, Foose, March, Plad, Windyville, Olive, Joplin, Carthage,
Greenfield, Lockwood, Meinert, Springfield, Marshfield,
Northview, Seymour, Rogersville, Neosho, Aurora, Mount Vernon,
Marionville, Nixa, Christian Center, Ozark, Selmore, Anderson,
Noel, Goodman, South West City, Pineville, Rocky Comfort, Monett,
Madry, Cassville, Kimberling City, Crane, Elsey, Indian Point,
and Silver Dollar City
227 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Kansas and Missouri, including the
  following areas, in southeast Kansas, Bourbon, Cherokee, and
  Crawford. In Missouri, Barry, Barton, Cedar, Christian, Dade,
  Dallas, Greene, Hickory, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton,
  Polk, St. Clair, Stone, Vernon, and Webster.

* Through Thursday morning

* Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected through
  tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with
  localized amounts over 5 inches possible. The rain will fall
  at a very rapid rate and may quickly lead to flash flooding.

* Areas that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms will see
  an increased risk for flash flooding. Rapid rises along area
  creeks and streams can be expected, along with the potential
  flooding of low water crossings. Motorists and campers should
  be especially alert for flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Bye To Tropical Storm Franklin

two_atl_2d0 (15)

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 19.8N 98.3W at 10/1200 
UTC or about 50 nm ENE of Mexico City moving W at 13 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is from 18N-22N between 94W-97W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-22N between
93W-102w. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 10N32W to 21N30W moving W at 5-10 
kt. The wave coincides with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing 
between 27W-40W. A 1013 mb low is embedded within the monsoon
trough at the southern extent of the wave axis near 10N32W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 33W-36W.

A tropical wave extends from 12N62W to 22N57W moving W at 10-15 
kt. A 1013 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 19N59W 
providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 18N-22N 
between 54W-60W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N85W to 19N84W moving W at 10-15 
kt. The wave remains embedded within middle to upper level low 
centered over the western Caribbean Sea near 16N84W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 06N-16N between 76W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 
12N28W to 06N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N42W to 04N52W. Aside from convection associated with the 
tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N 
between 13W-25W...and from 07N-12N between 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary focus this morning is Tropical Storm Franklin as it 
moves across interior portions of east-central Mexico and
continues to weaken. Scattered showers and strong tstms continue 
to impact the SW Gulf waters generally S of 22N W of 93W. 
Elsewhere across the basin...an upper level ridge anchored over 
the Rio Grande River valley extends an axis eastward over the 
northern Gulf and Florida peninsula. At the surface...mostly 
gentle to moderate SE winds prevail under relatively tranquil 
conditions. An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the Bahamas and western Cuba that continues to support a 
surface trough analyzed from the Florida Straits near 24N81W N-NE
to western Grand Bahama Island to 30N78W. This trough is forecast
to continue moving westward and bring increased cloudiness and 
precipitation to the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters
through tonight. The trough is expected to stall across Florida 
Friday night into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor 
across the north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and
tranquil conditions for the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
An upper level low is centered over the western Caribbean near
16N84W. In addition...a tropical wave is analyzed along 85W and 
both features continue to generate scattered showers and tstms 
across portions of Central America and the SW Caribbean generally 
S of 16N between 76W-85W. The upper level low is forecast to move
west and weaken over Central America while the tropical wave 
moves into the East Pacific region. Farther east...the remainder 
of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of 
mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with moderate to 
fresh trades prevailing. A few scattered showers and tstms are 
occurring across the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 63W-68W as
a tropical wave currently along 60W begins to impact the Lesser 
Antilles and eastern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail this morning 
across the island. Overall dry conditions are expected through 
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is centered over the Florida
Straits and western Cuba this morning and reflects a surface 
trough analyzed from 24N81W to 30N78W. The surface trough 
provides focus for widely scattered showers and tstms from 23N- 
28N between 75W-81W. The upper level trough is expected to become
absorbed by an upper level low centered over the western 
Caribbean Sea later today. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW 
North Atlc lies under the influence of a broad upper level trough 
over the eastern CONUS. The troughing supports a stationary front
extending from offshore of the Outer Banks to coastal Georgia 
with scattered showers and isolated tstms generally remaining N of
32N W of 73W. Farther east...another upper level low is centered 
near 23N57W that continues to enhance convection in the vicinity 
of the tropical wave between 55W-65W and a dissipating stationary
front analyzed along 27N. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
from 23N-28N between 53W-63W. The stationary front links E-NE to 
a 1018 mb low centered near 32N38W. Isolated showers and tstms 
are occurring in the vicinity of the low N of 26N between 36W- 
44W.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm, which made landfall overnight in eastern Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located about a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands have changed little overnight. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the weekend while the
system moves northwestward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although development is not anticipated,
this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of the
Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

offshores

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

An upper level low pressure system coupled with a rather moist
atmosphere resulted in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, across portions of deep east Texas and
north central Louisiana this morning. Rainfall rates upwards of
around two inches per hour across north central Louisiana pose a
threat for flash flooding, especially across low lying and poor
drainage roadways. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 10 AM
CDT for La Salle, Grant, Winn, Caldwell, Jackson, Ouachita,
Lincoln and Union Parishes.

By early this afternoon, the threat for heavy rainfall will be on
the decline as the precipitation commence to wane. However,
daytime destabilization may lead to the resurgence of additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Four-State region, before diminishing shortly after sunset.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Precipitation coverage will be on the rise Friday through early
next week, as a series of embedded disturbances within northwest
flow aloft interacts with a moist atmosphere. Gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall and consequently localized flooding
will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ECI8 (5)POE_Thumb

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

An upper level low pressure system coupled with a rather moist
atmosphere resulted in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, across portions of deep east Texas and
north central Louisiana this morning. Rainfall rates upwards of
around two inches per hour across north central Louisiana pose a
threat for flash flooding, especially across low lying and poor
drainage roadways. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 10 AM
CDT for La Salle, Grant, Winn, Caldwell, Jackson, Ouachita,
Lincoln and Union Parishes.

By early this afternoon, the threat for heavy rainfall will be on
the decline as the precipitation commence to wane. However,
daytime destabilization may lead to the resurgence of additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Four-State region, before diminishing shortly after sunset.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Precipitation coverage will be on the rise Friday through early
next week, as a series of embedded disturbances within northwest
flow aloft interacts with a moist atmosphere. Gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall and consequently localized flooding
will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed for rainfall and potential flood
reports this morning through early afternoon.

$$



images (20)

Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-101715-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of El Dorado, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston,
Farmerville, Bernice, Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport,
Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro,
Monroe, Many, Zwolle, Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield,
Colfax, Montgomery, Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena,
Midway, Olla, Nacogdoches, Center, Lufkin, San Augustine,
Hemphill, and Pineland
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NOW...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to shift
southeastward at 10 mph across much of northwest and north
central Louisiana. Some embedded storms remain from Pleasant Hill
and Coushatta to near Powhatan with minor flooding. Rainfall
amounts will range widely from around a tenth inch to as much as
another inch over the next two hours with some flooding in low
lying and poor drainage areas. Roads may also experience lingering
water with slow to drain out flooding especially near low water
crossings. Turn around, don`t drown. Elsewhere from Deep East
Texas and North Louisiana and South Arkansas new small showers are
cropping up as daytime heating commences.

$$

24




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
LAC127-101700-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FF.W.0032.170810T1359Z-170810T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
859 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Eastern Winn Parish in north central Louisiana...

* Until noon CDT

* At 856 AM CDT, local law enforcement report continued flooding
  with heavy rain ending across the warned area. Up to two inches of
  rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring with
  many highways inundated.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Winnfield, Dodson, Sikes, Joyce and Hudson.

Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the
southern portions of the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Rip Current Statement

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...

.HURRICANE FRANKLIN MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANKLIN TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES AND ALLOW STRONGER WAVE RUN-UP WITH WATER REACHING THE
DUNES.

TXZ242-243-245-247-110000-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.Y.0015.170810T1241Z-170811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCRP.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-170811T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-ARANSAS-CALHOUN-
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WAVE RUN UP INTO THE DUNES RESULTING IN LIMITED TO
  IMPOSSIBLE BEACH DRIVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
  AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
  ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND
FLOAT. DON`T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY MEANS THAT SWELL ENERGY FROM
FRANKLIN WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE DUNES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. IT IS ADVISED TO NOT DRIVE ALONG AREA BEACH ROADS TODAY.

&&

$$

HEAVENER



Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1012 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ234-242>247-101700-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Victoria-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-
Calhoun-
Including the cities of Victoria, Kingsville, Corpus Christi,
Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton, Mathis, Rockport,
Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
1012 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NOW...
Through 12 PM CDT, isolated showers will continue to move to the
northwest across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters and move inland
across the Coastal Bend and into the Victoria Crossroads. Rainfall
will generally be light to moderate at times with accumulations
less than a tenth of an inch.

$$

TJC




Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1007 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

TXZ234-242>247-102200-
Victoria-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Victoria, Kingsville, Corpus Christi,
Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton, Mathis, Rockport,
Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
1007 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Tropical funnel clouds possible today...

The atmosphere will be favorable for the development of tropical
funnel clouds today. Most of these funnel clouds will be short
lived. However, you should be prepared to seek shelter in the
event a funnel does reach the ground.

$$

Heavener



Coastal Flood Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...

.HURRICANE FRANKLIN MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANKLIN TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES AND ALLOW STRONGER WAVE RUN-UP WITH WATER REACHING THE
DUNES.

TXZ242-243-245-247-110000-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.Y.0015.170810T1241Z-170811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCRP.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-170811T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-ARANSAS-CALHOUN-
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WAVE RUN UP INTO THE DUNES RESULTING IN LIMITED TO
  IMPOSSIBLE BEACH DRIVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
  AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
  ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND
FLOAT. DON`T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY MEANS THAT SWELL ENERGY FROM
FRANKLIN WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE DUNES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. IT IS ADVISED TO NOT DRIVE ALONG AREA BEACH ROADS TODAY.

&&

$$images (5)

HEAVENER



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

TXZ229>234-239>247-110000-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
430 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across South
Texas today. Thunderstorms are not expected to become severe at
this time.

There is a high risk of rip currents for Gulf facing beaches
today.

Afternoon heat index values will range from 105 to 109 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday over
all but the western quarter of South Texas.

Afternoon heat index values will be between 105 and 113 degrees this
weekend into the middle of next week across much of the area. Heat
advisories may also be needed at times over the Southern Coastal
Bend, Southern Brush Country, and Rio Grande Plains, as heat indices
meet or exceed 110 degrees or more for a few hours each day

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
536 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

CAZ280>282-284-110045-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0027.170810T1900Z-170811T0500Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
536 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282 AND 284...

* Affected area: In Northern CA...all of Siskiyou County in Fire
  Weather Zones 280...281...282 and 284.

* Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning
  activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and
  shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms.

* Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result
  in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute
  to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are
  possible. Areas that received little or no rainfall in the
  past 24 hours are at higher risk for new starts.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered
thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where
many fire starts may occur in a short period of time.

Out of the Yucatan. Next stop Campeche

The timing is what was expected.  The pressure was fairly high at 1002mb.   The winds 35-40kts sustained and movement WNW at 10-12kts.  As it goes over the Bay of Compeche, it will strengthen up to near Hurricane Strength.

And once it make it makes landfall,  its dissipation will be quite soon.  One other variable  is a continued WNW track or NW.  It’s landfall would be later but that really is not going to happen.

Satellite imagery is showing a ragged center with the circulation depicting just that.

GULFWV172201715

southmissvly

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.  HGX_loop

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090845-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall continues to fall across much of the Houston Metro
this morning. A steady moderate to heavy rain is expected to
continue throughout the morning hours and into the daytime today.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Harris, Wharton, Fort Bend,
Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty counties until 8 AM,
but may be extended depending on how the system evolves over the
next several hours. If you are under a Flash Flood Warning and are
in a safe place, do not attempt to leave. If you must be on the
roads, do not drive through flooded roadways and report any
flooding to local law enforcement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible on
Wednesday. Some of these thunderstorms may be capable of brief
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooding to the NWS or local law
enforcement if they can do so safely.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-091300-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170809T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chambers-Harris-Liberty-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-
Including the cities of Anahuac, Cleveland, Coldspring, Conroe,
Corrigan, Dayton, Houston, Humble, Katy, Liberty, Livingston,
Mont Belvieu, Onalaska, Pasadena, Shepherd, The Woodlands,
Tomball, Willis, and Winnie
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Texas...including the following
  counties...Chambers...Harris...Liberty...Montgomery...Polk and
  San Jacinto.

* Through Wednesday morning

* Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
  widespread across the watch area this evening and continue into
  Wednesday. Rainfall over the past few days has led to saturated
  soil conditions. Storms that repeatably move over the same
  locations with rainfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour will
  lead to flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway.  The water depth may be too great to allow your car to
cross safely.  Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned
quickly.  If your vehicle stalls...abandon it and seek higher
ground immediately.  Rapidly rising water may engulf your vehicle
and its occupants and sweep them away.  Move to higher ground.

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$



Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...

  Greens Bayou At U.S. Hwy 59 affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris
  Greens Bayou At Ley Road affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris


For Greens Bayou at U.S. Hwy 59...Ley Road, Minor flooding is occuring, with
Moderate flooding forecasted.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few
days.



Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

TXC201-082156-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0035.170808T1731Z-170809T0142Z/
/GBLT2.1.ER.170808T1731Z.170808T1800Z.170808T1942Z.NO/
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Greens Bayou At Ley Road.
* from this afternoon to this evening...or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0445 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise to
  near 30.4 feet by this afternoon.the river will fall below flood stage by this
  afternoon.
* At 30.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gage.



&&
                     Flood  Observed             Forecast 6 AM
Location             Stage  Stage   Day Time     Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Greens Bayou
  Ley Road             30    11.1   Tue 05 AM     16.1    4.9    3.5

images (18)

Air Quality Alert

WAC005-013-021-037-039-071-077-091800-
Benton-Columbia-Franklin-Kittitas-Klickitat-Walla Walla-Yakima-
Including the cities of Kennewick, Richland, Benton City, Prosser,
West Richland, Hanford, Dayton, Starbuck, Pasco, Connell,
Ellensburg, Cle Elum, Easton, Goldendale, White Salmon, Trout Lake,
Bickleton, Roosevelt, College Place, Walla Walla, Burbank,
Waitsburg, Prescott, Grandview, Sunnyside, Toppenish, Yakima,
Granger, Mabton, Selah, Wapato, White Swan, Zillah, Naches,
and Cliffdell
1030 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY...

The Washington State Department of Ecology has issued an Air Quality
Alert...in effect until noon PDT Saturday for the following counties:

Kittitas
Yakima
Klickitat
Benton
Franklin
Walla Walla
Columbia

A Smoke Air Quality Alert has been issued. Wildfires burning in the
region combined with forecasted conditions will cause air quality to
reach unhealthy levels.

Pollutants in smoke can cause burning eyes, runny nose, aggravate
heart and lung diseases, and aggravate other serious health
problems. Children, the elderly, and individuals with respiratory
illnesses are most at risk of serious health effects. If you
experience respiratory distress, you should speak with your
physician. Limit outdoor activities and keep children indoors if it
is smoky. Please follow medical advice if you have a heart or lung
condition.

Information about air quality is on the Washington Department of
Ecology Web site at http://www.ecy.wa.gov/air.html or call 360-407-
6000.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...Hot temperatures expected for much of the week...

.High pressure will keep hot and dry conditions over much of the
inland Northwest for much of the week.

WAZ026-027-082300-
/O.NEW.KPDT.HT.Y.0003.170808T2000Z-170811T0300Z/
Kittitas Valley-Yakima Valley-
including the cities of Ellensburg, Thorp, Naches, Sunnyside,
Toppenish, and Yakima
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Pendleton has issued a Heat
Advisory...which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM
PDT Thursday.

* HIGH TEMPERATURES...101 to 105.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Those working or spending extended periods outdoors
  will be at increased risk of heat illness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot afternoon temperatures and warm
overnight temperatures will combine to create a situation in
which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay
in an air conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check up
on relatives and neighbors.
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