Trouble in the Tropics?

The Yucatan Peninsula is where Tropical Storm Harvey  will first encounter land.   And  as it does it will weaken.  It is only a bland tropical system as is.  Any interaction with land will weaken it, but trajectory is a huge issue.  Crossing the Peninsula diagonally is best for everyone but those who see significant swells, a few winds and perhap torrential rains.  I am not saying that it is good news for Southern Texas to Lake Carles, LA.

204351_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

As the 5PM REPORT Came out,  the diagonal path seems to write a different story from above.  There are two considerations.  The strength and its path.   I think perhaps the question is that the system is still only a rather weak TS and any encounter with land may cause it to weaken even further

Strongly feel that this storm may be downgraded and stay a Tropical Depression.  If it does reach TS again,  then something atypical would happening.  Apart from that, little change is expected, as per me.

 

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey,
with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but
poorly organized, convective area. Earlier reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting
an increased intensity. However, due to uncertainties in how
representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in
the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 275/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge
north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion
for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern
to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. After 72 h, a
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new
forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but
there were only minor changes in the direction. It should be noted
that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey
might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale
models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest
runs.

The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and
thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow
strengthening during this time. However, the GFS and ECMWF again
forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and
the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker
cyclone. This lowers the confidence in intensification. After
48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the
main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The
intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in
72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 13.4N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
120H 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER

 

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

…HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI…650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT……. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 62.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.6N 65.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 69.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N 76.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT… 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 88.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 92.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

GULFIR172302115       This satellite picture depicts an irregular storm center on the IR Loop.  It could better organize and center seems kind of oblique looking.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

GULFWV172301915

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

southeast

activity_loop (3)

This chart shows a lot of instability and a few showers and thunderstorms.   Pretty good indicator of enhanced convective activity.  I am not so certain of the forecast path and even a strong circulation.    Right now it is diffuse.  The next few hours may give a few answers.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott) – DWWX–

Gert gets going, Stronger.

While winds are up too 100mph, it is moving NE and away from CONUS.  The other systems are looking for an energy source and a favorable field for development.  In lieu of all that,  these other systems are moving west but will eventfully find their place following Gert.  By the way Gert is the place  for systems to go because of lowest pressure.  More on that later.

Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
MSC035-067-170015-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0124.170816T2238Z-170817T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
538 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Forrest County in southeastern Mississippi...
  Jones County in southeastern Mississippi...

* Until 715 PM CDT

* At 537 PM CDT, emergency management reported heavy rain across the
  warned area. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash
  flooding is already occurring. Jones County Emergency Management
  reported flooding on I-59 at Eastabuchie.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Hattiesburg, Laurel, Petal, Ellisville, Sandersville, Mill Creek,
  Rawls Springs, Tuckers Crossing, Macedonia, Eastabuchie, Moselle
  and Ovett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
216 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon...

.Heat indices of at or above 108 are currently being observed
across a large portion of the advisory area.

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-170000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0006.170816T1916Z-170817T0000Z/
Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Cleveland, Dayton, Edna, El Campo, Freeport, Friendswood,
Galveston, Houston, Humble, Katy, Lake Jackson, League City,
Liberty, Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Palacios, Pasadena,
Pearland, Pierce, Richmond, Rosenberg, Sugar Land, Texas City,
Tomball, Wharton, and Winnie
216 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Heat Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* EVENT...Heat index values of 106 to 110 degrees across the
  advisory area.

* TIMING...This afternoon.

* IMPACT...Prolonged exposure to the heat and/or exertion outdoors
  without proper hydration and other precautionary actions may
  result in heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

&&

$$


houston

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-172030-
Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Wharton-
328 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat indices of 106-110 degrees are already occurring across the
area this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 7 PM this
evening. Please use caution when working outside and drink plenty
of water. Seek immediate medical attention if you suspect that you
or someone else is experiencing heat illness.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Hot afternoons will persist through the upcoming weekend. The
maximum heat indices each day are expected to range from 104 to
109 degrees.

images (7)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
413 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
413 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
into early this evening along and south of the Interstate 44
corridor. Additional thunderstorms will also develop across
central Kansas late this afternoon. This activity will congeal
into a line of thunderstorms which will then move southeast across
the Missouri Ozarks from later this evening into the overnight
period.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible through this evening,
mainly to the west of an Osage Beach to Springfield to Anderson
line. Large hail up to the size of quarters and damaging winds
will be possible with a few of the storms. There is a limited risk
for an isolated tornado this evening mainly west of an Osceola to
Greenfield to Neosho line.

Torrential rainfall can also be expected from these storms due to
high moisture content in the atmosphere. Flash flooding will
therefore be possible in areas where multiple storms move over
the same areas. The highest risk for flash flooding will be
across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms will occur through the
upcoming week and into the weekend.

Heat index values will be the 90s each day into the weekend and
as high as 100 by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening west of an
Osage Beach to Springfield to Anderson line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Schaumann



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Springfield MO
227 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Into Tonight...

.Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected across
portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri into tonight
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts exceeding
5 inches possible. Given the large amount of moisture in the
atmosphere, intense rainfall rates may quickly lead to flash
flooding.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103-171200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-170817T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Barton-Cedar-
Polk-Dallas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Newton-Lawrence-Christian-
McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Including the cities of Fort Scott, Pawnee Station, Chicopee,
Lone Oak, Pittsburg, Baxter Springs, Lowell, Riverton, Columbus,
Neutral, Sherwin, Stippville, NEVADA, Tiffin, Appleton City,
Johnson City, Weaubleau, Hermitage, Quincy, Wheatland,
Cross Timbers, Kenoma, Lamar, Cedar Springs, El Dorado Springs,
Filley, Arnica, Caplinger Mills, Stockton, Bolivar, Buffalo,
Charity, Foose, March, Plad, Windyville, Olive, Joplin, Carthage,
Greenfield, Lockwood, Meinert, Springfield, Marshfield,
Northview, Seymour, Rogersville, Neosho, Aurora, Mount Vernon,
Marionville, Nixa, Christian Center, Ozark, Selmore, Anderson,
Noel, Goodman, South West City, Pineville, Rocky Comfort, Monett,
Madry, Cassville, Kimberling City, Crane, Elsey, Indian Point,
and Silver Dollar City
227 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Kansas and Missouri, including the
  following areas, in southeast Kansas, Bourbon, Cherokee, and
  Crawford. In Missouri, Barry, Barton, Cedar, Christian, Dade,
  Dallas, Greene, Hickory, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton,
  Polk, St. Clair, Stone, Vernon, and Webster.

* Through Thursday morning

* Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected through
  tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with
  localized amounts over 5 inches possible. The rain will fall
  at a very rapid rate and may quickly lead to flash flooding.

* Areas that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms will see
  an increased risk for flash flooding. Rapid rises along area
  creeks and streams can be expected, along with the potential
  flooding of low water crossings. Motorists and campers should
  be especially alert for flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Bye To Tropical Storm Franklin

two_atl_2d0 (15)

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 19.8N 98.3W at 10/1200 
UTC or about 50 nm ENE of Mexico City moving W at 13 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is from 18N-22N between 94W-97W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 14N-22N between
93W-102w. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 10N32W to 21N30W moving W at 5-10 
kt. The wave coincides with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing 
between 27W-40W. A 1013 mb low is embedded within the monsoon
trough at the southern extent of the wave axis near 10N32W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 33W-36W.

A tropical wave extends from 12N62W to 22N57W moving W at 10-15 
kt. A 1013 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 19N59W 
providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 18N-22N 
between 54W-60W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N85W to 19N84W moving W at 10-15 
kt. The wave remains embedded within middle to upper level low 
centered over the western Caribbean Sea near 16N84W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 06N-16N between 76W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 
12N28W to 06N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 06N42W to 04N52W. Aside from convection associated with the 
tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N 
between 13W-25W...and from 07N-12N between 51W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
The primary focus this morning is Tropical Storm Franklin as it 
moves across interior portions of east-central Mexico and
continues to weaken. Scattered showers and strong tstms continue 
to impact the SW Gulf waters generally S of 22N W of 93W. 
Elsewhere across the basin...an upper level ridge anchored over 
the Rio Grande River valley extends an axis eastward over the 
northern Gulf and Florida peninsula. At the surface...mostly 
gentle to moderate SE winds prevail under relatively tranquil 
conditions. An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the Bahamas and western Cuba that continues to support a 
surface trough analyzed from the Florida Straits near 24N81W N-NE
to western Grand Bahama Island to 30N78W. This trough is forecast
to continue moving westward and bring increased cloudiness and 
precipitation to the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters
through tonight. The trough is expected to stall across Florida 
Friday night into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor 
across the north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and
tranquil conditions for the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 
An upper level low is centered over the western Caribbean near
16N84W. In addition...a tropical wave is analyzed along 85W and 
both features continue to generate scattered showers and tstms 
across portions of Central America and the SW Caribbean generally 
S of 16N between 76W-85W. The upper level low is forecast to move
west and weaken over Central America while the tropical wave 
moves into the East Pacific region. Farther east...the remainder 
of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of 
mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with moderate to 
fresh trades prevailing. A few scattered showers and tstms are 
occurring across the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 63W-68W as
a tropical wave currently along 60W begins to impact the Lesser 
Antilles and eastern Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...
Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail this morning 
across the island. Overall dry conditions are expected through 
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is centered over the Florida
Straits and western Cuba this morning and reflects a surface 
trough analyzed from 24N81W to 30N78W. The surface trough 
provides focus for widely scattered showers and tstms from 23N- 
28N between 75W-81W. The upper level trough is expected to become
absorbed by an upper level low centered over the western 
Caribbean Sea later today. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW 
North Atlc lies under the influence of a broad upper level trough 
over the eastern CONUS. The troughing supports a stationary front
extending from offshore of the Outer Banks to coastal Georgia 
with scattered showers and isolated tstms generally remaining N of
32N W of 73W. Farther east...another upper level low is centered 
near 23N57W that continues to enhance convection in the vicinity 
of the tropical wave between 55W-65W and a dissipating stationary
front analyzed along 27N. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
from 23N-28N between 53W-63W. The stationary front links E-NE to 
a 1018 mb low centered near 32N38W. Isolated showers and tstms 
are occurring in the vicinity of the low N of 26N between 36W- 
44W.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm, which made landfall overnight in eastern Mexico.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located about a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands have changed little overnight. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the weekend while the
system moves northwestward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although development is not anticipated,
this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of the
Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

offshores

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

An upper level low pressure system coupled with a rather moist
atmosphere resulted in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, across portions of deep east Texas and
north central Louisiana this morning. Rainfall rates upwards of
around two inches per hour across north central Louisiana pose a
threat for flash flooding, especially across low lying and poor
drainage roadways. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 10 AM
CDT for La Salle, Grant, Winn, Caldwell, Jackson, Ouachita,
Lincoln and Union Parishes.

By early this afternoon, the threat for heavy rainfall will be on
the decline as the precipitation commence to wane. However,
daytime destabilization may lead to the resurgence of additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Four-State region, before diminishing shortly after sunset.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Precipitation coverage will be on the rise Friday through early
next week, as a series of embedded disturbances within northwest
flow aloft interacts with a moist atmosphere. Gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall and consequently localized flooding
will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ECI8 (5)POE_Thumb

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111045-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
542 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

An upper level low pressure system coupled with a rather moist
atmosphere resulted in the development of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, across portions of deep east Texas and
north central Louisiana this morning. Rainfall rates upwards of
around two inches per hour across north central Louisiana pose a
threat for flash flooding, especially across low lying and poor
drainage roadways. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 10 AM
CDT for La Salle, Grant, Winn, Caldwell, Jackson, Ouachita,
Lincoln and Union Parishes.

By early this afternoon, the threat for heavy rainfall will be on
the decline as the precipitation commence to wane. However,
daytime destabilization may lead to the resurgence of additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the Four-State region, before diminishing shortly after sunset.



.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Precipitation coverage will be on the rise Friday through early
next week, as a series of embedded disturbances within northwest
flow aloft interacts with a moist atmosphere. Gusty winds,
moderate to heavy rainfall and consequently localized flooding
will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed for rainfall and potential flood
reports this morning through early afternoon.

$$



images (20)

Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-101715-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of El Dorado, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston,
Farmerville, Bernice, Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport,
Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro,
Monroe, Many, Zwolle, Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield,
Colfax, Montgomery, Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena,
Midway, Olla, Nacogdoches, Center, Lufkin, San Augustine,
Hemphill, and Pineland
1013 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NOW...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to shift
southeastward at 10 mph across much of northwest and north
central Louisiana. Some embedded storms remain from Pleasant Hill
and Coushatta to near Powhatan with minor flooding. Rainfall
amounts will range widely from around a tenth inch to as much as
another inch over the next two hours with some flooding in low
lying and poor drainage areas. Roads may also experience lingering
water with slow to drain out flooding especially near low water
crossings. Turn around, don`t drown. Elsewhere from Deep East
Texas and North Louisiana and South Arkansas new small showers are
cropping up as daytime heating commences.

$$

24




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
LAC127-101700-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FF.W.0032.170810T1359Z-170810T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
859 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Eastern Winn Parish in north central Louisiana...

* Until noon CDT

* At 856 AM CDT, local law enforcement report continued flooding
  with heavy rain ending across the warned area. Up to two inches of
  rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring with
  many highways inundated.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Winnfield, Dodson, Sikes, Joyce and Hudson.

Additional rainfall amounts of one inch are possible in the
southern portions of the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Rip Current Statement

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...

.HURRICANE FRANKLIN MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANKLIN TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES AND ALLOW STRONGER WAVE RUN-UP WITH WATER REACHING THE
DUNES.

TXZ242-243-245-247-110000-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.Y.0015.170810T1241Z-170811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCRP.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-170811T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-ARANSAS-CALHOUN-
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WAVE RUN UP INTO THE DUNES RESULTING IN LIMITED TO
  IMPOSSIBLE BEACH DRIVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
  AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
  ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND
FLOAT. DON`T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY MEANS THAT SWELL ENERGY FROM
FRANKLIN WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE DUNES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. IT IS ADVISED TO NOT DRIVE ALONG AREA BEACH ROADS TODAY.

&&

$$

HEAVENER



Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1012 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ234-242>247-101700-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Victoria-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-
Calhoun-
Including the cities of Victoria, Kingsville, Corpus Christi,
Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton, Mathis, Rockport,
Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
1012 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.NOW...
Through 12 PM CDT, isolated showers will continue to move to the
northwest across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters and move inland
across the Coastal Bend and into the Victoria Crossroads. Rainfall
will generally be light to moderate at times with accumulations
less than a tenth of an inch.

$$

TJC




Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1007 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

TXZ234-242>247-102200-
Victoria-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
Including the cities of Victoria, Kingsville, Corpus Christi,
Portland, Ingleside, Aransas Pass, Sinton, Mathis, Rockport,
Refugio, Woodsboro, and Port Lavaca
1007 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Tropical funnel clouds possible today...

The atmosphere will be favorable for the development of tropical
funnel clouds today. Most of these funnel clouds will be short
lived. However, you should be prepared to seek shelter in the
event a funnel does reach the ground.

$$

Heavener



Coastal Flood Advisory

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST TODAY...

.HURRICANE FRANKLIN MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANKLIN TRAVERSING
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL HELP TO GENERATE
STRONGER AND MORE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES AND ALLOW STRONGER WAVE RUN-UP WITH WATER REACHING THE
DUNES.

TXZ242-243-245-247-110000-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.Y.0015.170810T1241Z-170811T0000Z/
/O.CON.KCRP.RP.S.0012.000000T0000Z-170811T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-ARANSAS-CALHOUN-
741 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2017

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WAVE RUN UP INTO THE DUNES RESULTING IN LIMITED TO
  IMPOSSIBLE BEACH DRIVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
  AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
  ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT, RELAX AND
FLOAT. DON`T SWIM AGAINST THE CURRENT. IF ABLE, SWIM IN A
DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE
SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE FOR HELP.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY MEANS THAT SWELL ENERGY FROM
FRANKLIN WILL PUSH WATER INTO THE DUNES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
DAY. IT IS ADVISED TO NOT DRIVE ALONG AREA BEACH ROADS TODAY.

&&

$$images (5)

HEAVENER



Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

TXZ229>234-239>247-110000-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Kleberg-Nueces-San Patricio-Aransas-Refugio-Calhoun-
430 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across South
Texas today. Thunderstorms are not expected to become severe at
this time.

There is a high risk of rip currents for Gulf facing beaches
today.

Afternoon heat index values will range from 105 to 109 degrees.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible on Friday over
all but the western quarter of South Texas.

Afternoon heat index values will be between 105 and 113 degrees this
weekend into the middle of next week across much of the area. Heat
advisories may also be needed at times over the Southern Coastal
Bend, Southern Brush Country, and Rio Grande Plains, as heat indices
meet or exceed 110 degrees or more for a few hours each day

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
536 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

CAZ280>282-284-110045-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0027.170810T1900Z-170811T0500Z/
Western Klamath National Forest-
Central Siskiyou County Including Shasta Valley-Shasta-
Trinity National Forest in Siskiyou County-
Siskiyou County from the Cascade Mountains East and South to Mt
Shasta-
536 AM PDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 280...281...282 AND 284...

* Affected area: In Northern CA...all of Siskiyou County in Fire
  Weather Zones 280...281...282 and 284.

* Thunderstorms...Scattered thunderstorms with lightning
  activity level of 3. Fire crews should be aware that gusty and
  shifting winds are possible in and around thunderstorms.

* Impacts...Lightning and high fire danger will likely result
  in new fire starts. Gusty thunderstorm winds could contribute
  to fire spread. Even with some rainfall, initial attack
  resources could be overwhelmed and holdover fires are
  possible. Areas that received little or no rainfall in the
  past 24 hours are at higher risk for new starts.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  http://weather.gov/medford/hazard

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Scattered
thunderstorms combined with dry fuels create conditions where
many fire starts may occur in a short period of time.

Out of the Yucatan. Next stop Campeche

The timing is what was expected.  The pressure was fairly high at 1002mb.   The winds 35-40kts sustained and movement WNW at 10-12kts.  As it goes over the Bay of Compeche, it will strengthen up to near Hurricane Strength.

And once it make it makes landfall,  its dissipation will be quite soon.  One other variable  is a continued WNW track or NW.  It’s landfall would be later but that really is not going to happen.

Satellite imagery is showing a ragged center with the circulation depicting just that.

GULFWV172201715

southmissvly

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.  HGX_loop

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090845-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall continues to fall across much of the Houston Metro
this morning. A steady moderate to heavy rain is expected to
continue throughout the morning hours and into the daytime today.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Harris, Wharton, Fort Bend,
Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty counties until 8 AM,
but may be extended depending on how the system evolves over the
next several hours. If you are under a Flash Flood Warning and are
in a safe place, do not attempt to leave. If you must be on the
roads, do not drive through flooded roadways and report any
flooding to local law enforcement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible on
Wednesday. Some of these thunderstorms may be capable of brief
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooding to the NWS or local law
enforcement if they can do so safely.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-091300-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170809T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chambers-Harris-Liberty-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-
Including the cities of Anahuac, Cleveland, Coldspring, Conroe,
Corrigan, Dayton, Houston, Humble, Katy, Liberty, Livingston,
Mont Belvieu, Onalaska, Pasadena, Shepherd, The Woodlands,
Tomball, Willis, and Winnie
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Texas...including the following
  counties...Chambers...Harris...Liberty...Montgomery...Polk and
  San Jacinto.

* Through Wednesday morning

* Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
  widespread across the watch area this evening and continue into
  Wednesday. Rainfall over the past few days has led to saturated
  soil conditions. Storms that repeatably move over the same
  locations with rainfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour will
  lead to flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway.  The water depth may be too great to allow your car to
cross safely.  Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned
quickly.  If your vehicle stalls...abandon it and seek higher
ground immediately.  Rapidly rising water may engulf your vehicle
and its occupants and sweep them away.  Move to higher ground.

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$



Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...

  Greens Bayou At U.S. Hwy 59 affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris
  Greens Bayou At Ley Road affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris


For Greens Bayou at U.S. Hwy 59...Ley Road, Minor flooding is occuring, with
Moderate flooding forecasted.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few
days.



Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

TXC201-082156-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0035.170808T1731Z-170809T0142Z/
/GBLT2.1.ER.170808T1731Z.170808T1800Z.170808T1942Z.NO/
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Greens Bayou At Ley Road.
* from this afternoon to this evening...or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0445 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise to
  near 30.4 feet by this afternoon.the river will fall below flood stage by this
  afternoon.
* At 30.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gage.



&&
                     Flood  Observed             Forecast 6 AM
Location             Stage  Stage   Day Time     Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Greens Bayou
  Ley Road             30    11.1   Tue 05 AM     16.1    4.9    3.5

images (18)

Air Quality Alert

WAC005-013-021-037-039-071-077-091800-
Benton-Columbia-Franklin-Kittitas-Klickitat-Walla Walla-Yakima-
Including the cities of Kennewick, Richland, Benton City, Prosser,
West Richland, Hanford, Dayton, Starbuck, Pasco, Connell,
Ellensburg, Cle Elum, Easton, Goldendale, White Salmon, Trout Lake,
Bickleton, Roosevelt, College Place, Walla Walla, Burbank,
Waitsburg, Prescott, Grandview, Sunnyside, Toppenish, Yakima,
Granger, Mabton, Selah, Wapato, White Swan, Zillah, Naches,
and Cliffdell
1030 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY...

The Washington State Department of Ecology has issued an Air Quality
Alert...in effect until noon PDT Saturday for the following counties:

Kittitas
Yakima
Klickitat
Benton
Franklin
Walla Walla
Columbia

A Smoke Air Quality Alert has been issued. Wildfires burning in the
region combined with forecasted conditions will cause air quality to
reach unhealthy levels.

Pollutants in smoke can cause burning eyes, runny nose, aggravate
heart and lung diseases, and aggravate other serious health
problems. Children, the elderly, and individuals with respiratory
illnesses are most at risk of serious health effects. If you
experience respiratory distress, you should speak with your
physician. Limit outdoor activities and keep children indoors if it
is smoky. Please follow medical advice if you have a heart or lung
condition.

Information about air quality is on the Washington Department of
Ecology Web site at http://www.ecy.wa.gov/air.html or call 360-407-
6000.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...Hot temperatures expected for much of the week...

.High pressure will keep hot and dry conditions over much of the
inland Northwest for much of the week.

WAZ026-027-082300-
/O.NEW.KPDT.HT.Y.0003.170808T2000Z-170811T0300Z/
Kittitas Valley-Yakima Valley-
including the cities of Ellensburg, Thorp, Naches, Sunnyside,
Toppenish, and Yakima
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Pendleton has issued a Heat
Advisory...which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM
PDT Thursday.

* HIGH TEMPERATURES...101 to 105.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Those working or spending extended periods outdoors
  will be at increased risk of heat illness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot afternoon temperatures and warm
overnight temperatures will combine to create a situation in
which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay
in an air conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check up
on relatives and neighbors.
SREF_H5__f081

Hurricane/Tropical Franklin

Well,  that was easy and will remain so.  From Tropical Storm to Hurricane and back to a Tropical Storm.   Are we clear now?  It was pretty easy as far as a prediction is concerned.   As Franklin move towards the Yucatan

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

Visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized
tropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of
the convective cloud tops. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core,
which is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the
visible imagery. The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a
blend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along
with sampling considerations. Franklin has a well-defined,
symmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is
still expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near
hurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against
rapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur
due to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening
over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast.
Although northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat,
Franklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making
landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast.

Based on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary
and microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or
310/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically
unchanged. A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a
west-northwestward to westward course for the next several days.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
96H 11/1800Z…DISSIPATED

As mentioned above there are considerations as upper warming and some sheering.   The possibility of a strong Hurricane is not likely.   Tropical Storm Franklin will hastily dissipate because of it’s interaction with the Yucatan and then mostly a marginal Hurricane.  For the people in Mexico be advised that any Hurricane can be very dangerous no matter the strength and that is even true for Tropical Storms.

Nearing the Mexican Coastline,  the big issue will be winds,  flooding and potential for a few tornadoes in the Southeatern Quadrant of the storm and a few waterspouts.  (Tornadoes over water).    Frequent Lighting and power outages will be widespread.,

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

GULFIR172200045

HTX_loop (1)

Franklin is not the only story, even as these storms over portions of Alabama this evening.  The weather over Alabama are not related to the Tropical Weather.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
217 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-081100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
217 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue into the evening
and overnight hours, as a weak frontal boundary shifts south through
the area. A few of these storms could become strong and produce gusty
winds. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is possible which may
lead to instances of flash flooding in low lying and urban areas,
especially south of the Tennessee River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

A stalled frontal boundary just south of the area will keep isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast most of the
upcoming week.

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms develops again toward
the end of the week and into the weekend as this boundary moves
north over the area. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
during this timeframe, possibly producing some flash flooding.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

$$


 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
750 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

ALC103-080230-
/O.CON.KHUN.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170808T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morgan AL-
750 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that earlier thunderstorms produced heavy rain over the warned area.
Two to three inches of rain have already fallen, with additional
light rain expected to continue over the next two hours. Flash
flooding may be occurring along low-lying spots and near streams and
creeks.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Decatur, Hartselle, Priceville, Trinity, Somerville and Basham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.                            
  

Emily – Just a mid-latitude Low

Business Card 2FAX

 

Really Emily has been  nothing more than a Low.  Even now it sits off the Coast of Florida,  with Mininum Central Pressure of 1010mb.  The norm is 1013.2.   The other thing, is it did what was expected in terms of relative movement.  The issue now is more a rain event and most likely closer to the Outer Banks and then beating a hasty retreat NE.   You can see on satellite where it is being absorbed along the Cold Frontal Boundary.  The next system should be weaker.    I think that the NHC is being hopeful with their storm forecasts.   (Quite naturally).

The X off the coast of Africa shows some wave effect.  That should be entrained into the frontal boundary and remnants of Emily.  It gets a bit active this year and the system off the coast of Florida is pretty standard stuff.  Being inland the systems have these tiny impulses.  If they get a warm water(hot-spots) regime,  adiabatic processes are enhanced. But there are too many things that can happen between Cape Verde and the shores of the U.S.

Excessive Heat Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
218 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...

ORZ003>008-010>016-WAZ019-020-022-039-040-045-046-022230-
/O.CON.KPQR.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/
Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-
Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Lower Columbia-
Greater Portland Metro Area-Central Willamette Valley-
South Willamette Valley-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-
Northern Oregon Cascades-Cascade Foothills in Lane County-
Cascades in Lane County-Upper Hood River Valley-
Western Columbia River Gorge-Central Columbia River Gorge-
South Washington Cascades-Willapa Hills-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
South Washington Cascade Foothills-
Including the cities of Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit,
Lees Camp, Trask, Grande Ronde, Burnt Woods, Tidewater,
Swisshome, Veneta, St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro, Portland,
Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, McMinnville,
Woodburn, Stayton, Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis,
Albany, Lebanon, Sandy, Estacada, Silver Falls State Park,
Sweet Home, Government Camp, Detroit, Santiam Pass, Vida, Jasper,
Lowell, Cottage Grove, McKenzie Pass, McKenzie Bridge, Oakridge,
Willamette Pass, Parkdale, Odell, Corbett, Rooster Rock,
Multnomah Falls, Cascade Locks, Hood River,
Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center, Mount St. Helens,
Wind River Valley, Willapa, Frances, Ryderwood, Longview, Kelso,
Castle Rock, Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal,
Yacolt, Amboy, Toutle, Ariel, Lake Merwin, Yale Lake, Cougar,
North Bonneville, Stevenson, Carson, and Underwood
218 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT
FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURES...Record high temperatures are expected inland.
  Temperatures will climb to around 100 this afternoon, heating up
  to 104 to 108 on Wednesday and Thursday. The heat will continue
  into Friday, with temperatures near 100 likely. Low temperatures
  are expected to remain warm, dropping only into the mid 60s to
  lower 70s in the valleys. In the foothills and lower Cascades,
  overnight temperatures will remain very warm at night with lows
  only in the mid 70s to low 80s.

* TIMING...Today through the end of the week. Wednesday and
  Thursday will be the hottest days, with record setting high
  temperatures and poor overnight recovery. Friday could also be
  another record setting day. Above normal temperatures are
  expected to continue through early next week.

* IMPACTS...The elderly, people without access to air
  conditioning, and anyone engaged in prolonged outdoor
  activities will be be particularly vulnerable during this heat
  episode. Local power demand is expected to be at high levels.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. Hot temperatures will
create a dangerous situation in which heat related illnesses are
likely. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances, even for short periods of time.
This is especially true during warm or hot weather when car
interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

&&

$$


 

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
233 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...Multiple Fire Weather Hazards Across Northwest Oregon and
Southwest Washington this Week...

.Very hot temperatures with low humidity will affect the region
this week. There are a couple different impacts regarding fire
weather bringing potential for rapid fire spread. A thermal
trough has set up west of the Cascades and will drift from over
the Willamette Valley at night to over the Cascades during the
day. This will bring breezy winds to the Willamette Valley today
along with humidity below 25%. This thermal trough will also bring
very unstable low level conditions to the area through at least
Thursday, increasing the likelihood of plume dominated fire
activity mainly during the afternoons and evenings.

ORZ604-020600-
/O.CON.KPQR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170804T0600Z/
Willamette Valley-
233 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PLUS FOR SIGNIFICANTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 604...

* Winds...North winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
  primarily across the southern two thirds of Fire Weather Zone
  604 in the Willamette Valley. Dry and locally breezy
  conditions elsewhere.

* Instability...Mid-level Haines 6 and High-level Haines 5 or 6
  conditions will produce an unstable atmosphere conducive for
  rapid fire growth for all of Fire Weather Zone 604.

* Humidity...as low as 10-20%.

* Timing...Tuesday afternoon and evening.

* Affected Area...In Oregon...Fire Weather Zone 604 Willamette
  Valley.

* Impacts...FOR WIND/RH: Conditions may be favorable for rapid
  fire spread which may threaten life and property. Use extra
  caution with potential ignition sources, especially in grassy
  areas. FOR INSTABILITY: Conditions may be favorable for rapid
  spread on any new and existing fires. Extreme fire behavior is
  possible. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Wx Fax Machinekajocape-MMAP-md

Meteorologist Mike Scott (Larry Olson)

Official Meteorologist of the World Outlaws,

World Racing Group

East Bay Raceway, Tampa

I-30 Speedway,  Little Rock, AR.

WRBQ/WXBQ/etc.

Another Atlantic Disturbance

1799images (3)

The depression that is near the coast of Africa is a disturbance (13 degrees North Latitude, 32 degrees West  Longitude) is little  more than a few Thunderstorms. Now let’s say for the sake of argument that this (Tropical Wave) flowers unto a larger, more organized system.  Over the next two days, we are seeing a 20% chance of becoming  more organized.

IMHO, this disturbance will  go the way of the last storm.  A few thunderstorms to the south and winds moving to the West at 10-20mph.  This system has the earmarks of the last one.  A fluff of clouds,  a cup of coffee and another system that is absorbed and forgotten.

Tropical Storm Hilary is off the Western side of Mexico.  I wonder if there is a recount looming.   Tropical Storms Irving and Hilary are feeding upon each other.  These storms will coalesce into a bigger ripple, a few thunderstorms and some wind.

two_pac_2d0

COHIOco101

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
351 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

OHZ003-007-009>012-089-PAZ001-300800-
Lucas-Ottawa-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-
351 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$


 

Beach Hazards Statement

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
332 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2017


OHZ003-007-009>012-089-PAZ001-300345-
/O.EXT.KCLE.BH.S.0014.000000T0000Z-170730T0800Z/
LUCAS-OTTAWA-ERIE-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-
332 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...LAKESHORE FROM LUCAS COUNTY EAST TO ERIE COUNTY
  PENNSYLVANIA.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HIGH SWIMMING RISK FROM WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS ISSUED WHEN SWIMMING RISKS EXIST
FROM A COMBINATION OF WIND AND LARGE WAVES INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS
AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS. THESE SWIMMING RISKS CAN CREATE LIFE-
THREATENING CONDITIONS EVEN FOR GOOD SWIMMERS. FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTION OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES OR STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

gf mt

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
246 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017

MTZ112>114-301300-
/O.UPG.KTFX.FW.A.0008.170730T1700Z-170731T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.FW.W.0009.170730T1700Z-170731T0400Z/
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
246 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Great Falls has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday. the
Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect.

* IMPACTS: Low Humidities...Hot Temperatures...and Strong Gusty
  Winds will create erratic fire behavior and an increased risk
  of new fire starts.

* AFFECTED AREA:
  In North Central Montana, Fire Weather Zones 112, 113 and 114.

* COUNTIES AFFECTED:
 In Central Montana, Lewis and Clark.

 In North Central Montana, Blaine, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill
                            Liberty, Phillips, Pondera, Teton,
                            Toole.

* WIND: West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* HUMIDITY: As low as 12 percent.

* TEMPERATURES: In the mid 90s to around 100 across the lower
  elevations with low to mid 80s across the higher terrain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
either occurring now, or will shortly.  A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in these
areas of this Red Flag Warning.

gfmt1

houston

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

TXZ195>197-210>214-226-227-235>238-302100-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Matagorda-Waller-Washington-Wharton-
348 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

High temperatures between 100 to 103 degrees inland and the mid
90s at the coast can be expected through early evening. Heat
index values should peak between 107 and 112 degrees later today.
Take the necessary precautions to keep people and pets safe from
the heat.

A few thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and
overnight. Some may be capable of gusty winds or locally heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$


 

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1013 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...Heat Advisory Remains in Effect...

.The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will
create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible if
precautions are not taken.

TXZ195>197-210>214-226-227-235>238-300000-
/O.CON.KHGX.HT.Y.0002.170729T1800Z-170730T0000Z/
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Matagorda-Waller-Washington-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Bellville, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan, Caldwell, College Station,
Columbus, Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo, Freeport, Friendswood,
Galveston, Hempstead, Houston, Humble, Katy, Lake Jackson,
Lake Somerville, League City, Missouri City, Mont Belvieu,
Palacios, Pasadena, Pearland, Pierce, Prairie View, Richmond,
Rosenberg, Sealy, Sugar Land, Texas City, Tomball, Weimar,
Wharton, and Winnie
1013 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...High temperatures near 103 degrees in the Brazos
  Valley. Heat index values 107 to 110 degrees across the all of
  the advisory area.

* TIMING...This afternoon into early evening.

* IMPACT...Prolonged exposure to the heat and/or exertion
  outdoors without proper hydration and other precautionary
  actions may result in heat exhaustion or heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

Each year...a number of fatalities occur nationwide due to
children accidentally being left in vehicles during the summer
months. In the past dozen years...500 children have died due to
hyperthermia after being left in or gaining access to cars. Never
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle not even for a
minute. Remember...beat the heat...check the backseat.

cospafa

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1218 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-301830-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike`s Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1218 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the mountains this afternoon then spread eastward across the
southeast plains late this afternoon through this evening. A few
storms across the southeast plains could become severe producing
hail around 1 inch in diameter or larger, and wind gust over 60 mph.
Thunderstorms will congeal into a large cluster across the
southeast plains this evening which will move slowly eastward into
KS during the overnight hours. The primary thunderstorm risk across
much of southern CO through tonight will be heavy rainfall and flash
flooding, particularly where ground conditions are already saturated
by recent heavy rains. Burn scars will also be susceptible to
flash flooding through this evening, and heavy rainfall in steep
terrain could cause rock slides and rapid flooding of streams and
creeks.

Cloud to ground lightning will also be a risk with thunderstorms
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered to numerous afternoon into evening showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated into Monday. The primary
thunderstorm threats during this time-frame will be heavy rainfall
capable of producing localized flash flooding, hazardous
lightning, hail generally under the size of dimes and wind gusts
around 50 mph at times.

Then, generally isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms,
favoring higher terrain locations, should be noted from Tuesday
into Friday. The more intense storms during this time frame will
be capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding,
hazardous lightning, small hail and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely this afternoon through tonight across much of south
central and southeast Colorado.

$$

13/13


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1149 AM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...Monsoon moisture will bring threat for Flash Flooding for
portions of Southern Colorado through tonight...

.Monsoon moisture and lift overtop of a cold front will result in
another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms across
southern Colorado this afternoon and evening. The ground in this
region is already saturated from recent heavy rains, and any
additional heavy rain could result in flash flooding. Burn scars
in the mountains will also be vulnerable to flash flooding.

COZ058>063-072>089-093>099-300200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0007.170729T1800Z-170730T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike`s Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
Including the cities of Climax, Leadville, Bonanza, Alpine,
Granite, St Elmo, Salida, Buena Vista, La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass,
Blanca Peak, Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale,
Cotopaxi, Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff,
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Pikes Peak, Canon City, Penrose,
Black Forest, Colorado Springs, Peterson AFB, Pueblo, Walsenburg,
Trinidad, Ordway, Olney Springs, La Junta, Rocky Ford, Branson,
Kim, Eads, Sheridan Lake, Las Animas, Lamar, Springfield,
and Walsh
1149 AM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Colorado, east central Colorado, and
  southeast Colorado, including the following areas, in central
  Colorado, Eastern Sawatch Range, Fremont County, Mosquito
  Range, Teller County and the Rampart Range, and Upper Arkansas
  River Valley. In east central Colorado, El Paso County. In
  southeast Colorado, Baca County, Bent County, Crowley County,
  Eastern Kiowa County, Eastern Las Animas County, Huerfano
  County, Northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains, Otero County,
  Prowers County, Pueblo County, Southern Sangre De Cristo
  Mountains, Western Kiowa County, Western Las Animas County,
  Wet Mountain Valley, and Wet Mountains.

* Through late tonight

* Monsoon moisture and an upper level disturbance will result in
  another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms capable of
  producing heavy rain across and near the mountains.
  Thunderstorms will spread eastward and persist into the
  overnight hours across the southeast plains, particularly to the
  north of highway 50.

* Mud and ash flows will be possible in and near burn scars
  should heavy rainfall impact these areas. Quick runoff from
  heavy rains which may occur across urban areas or areas with
  saturated soil conditions may quickly result in flooded
  roadways, creeks and drainages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.                                 

Nothing to see here!!

The tropical system that braved Africa and the Atlantic Basin is now awash with a few thunderstorms and not much else.  This was a no-brainer.  At the outset you had barely a disturbance and the 20% was a stretch.   I do like the more expansive descriptions and degrees of separation.  It is very impotant to understand that and an inter-active discussion yields a more informed public.

 

As forecasted here,  I saw very little justification.  Out!

The Valley,  Elmira area of NY State.  The area has not seen this kind od flooding, some 40 years ago.   Route 17 (Highway)  has been closed.   Bridges and other structures will need major repairs.

A drier regime will inch it’s way into the Valley and all the way to near Buffalo.  This drie air will continue to punch its way into most of NY/PA.

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service State College PA
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017


PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-291000-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-170729T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford,
McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the following
  areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cumberland, Dauphin,
  Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon,
  Mifflin, Perry, Somerset, and York.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* Heavy rainfall of two to three inches with local amounts of over
  four inches is possible, especially in higher terrain. Areas
  that received the heavy rainfall last weekend are most
  susceptible to flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Review flood safety and preparedness information at
weather.gov/flood.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE…Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

Flash Flood Watch.

Some storms could contain gusty winds and small hail this afternoon
and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

asa

web1_DP-06052016-heroes-banners-2

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
327 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
327 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
 A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas east and south of a
line from Killeen to Denton to Sulphur Springs through 8 pm this
evening.

There is a small chance of thunderstorms late today and tonight,
mainly northeast of a Breckenridge to Dallas to Canton line. Gusty
downburst winds, brief heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be
the primary hazards. Most locations will remain rain-free through
tonight, however.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
A weak cold front will move across the region Saturday. However, it
will remain hot, especially across Central Texas where temperatures
will reach or exceed 100 degrees, and some areas will experience heat
index values in excess of 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory will be in
effect for much of Central Texas on Saturday afternoon.

Low thunderstorm chances will linger across the region Saturday and
for areas mainly west of I-35 Saturday night through Tuesday. All of
North and Central Texas will see increasing thunderstorm chances by
the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$


 

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
232 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...Heat Advisory remains in effect late today east and south of a
Killeen to Denton to Sulphur Springs line through 8 pm, then
continues Saturday afternoon east and south of a Killeen to Glen
Rose to Terrell/Canton line on Saturday afternoon...

TXZ103>105-107-117>120-123-131-133-134-290100-
/O.CON.KFWD.HT.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170729T0100Z/
Denton-Collin-Hunt-Hopkins-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Rains-
Hood-Johnson-Ellis-
Including the cities of Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville,
Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville,
Commerce, Sulphur Springs, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth,
Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point,
Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie,
Ennis, and Midlothian
232 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures from 95 to 102 degrees.

* HEAT INDEX...105 to 110 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Individuals and pets outdoors during peak heating
  without adequate shade and/or water may succumb to heat
  exhaustion or heat stroke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be sure to check on persons with health problems and the
elderly...as they are the most susceptible to heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Never leave young children or pets in an enclosed
vehicle...even for a short time...as temperatures can quickly
rise to life threatening levels.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside.  When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency - call 911.

uau11

alledgenix

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
556 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-291200-
Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Northern Wasatch Front-
Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys-Southern Wasatch Front-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Wasatch Mountain Valleys-
Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-
Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-
Western Uinta Basin-Castle Country-San Rafael Swell-
Sanpete/Sevier Valleys-West Central Utah-Southwest Utah-
Utahs Dixie and Zion National Park-South Central Utah-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Central Mountains-
Southern Mountains-Southwest Wyoming-
556 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of
Utah and southwest Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Moisture will maintain a threat for showers and thunderstorms
across the outlook area. These storms will be most numerous over
the higher terrain, as well as across southern and eastern Utah.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A gradual drying trend is expected across the north over the
weekend into early next week, while moisture remains in place
across the south, maintaining a threat for showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall through at least
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

$$

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential road travel impacts visit...
http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
443 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

UTC017-025-037-290100-
/O.CON.KSLC.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-170729T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Garfield UT-San Juan UT-Kane UT-
443 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUAN AND EASTERN KANE
COUNTIES...

At 438 PM MDT, Rainfall continues across the southern border of the
flash flood warning. However, the majority of the precipitation has
moved out of the area.  Radar rainfall estimates across the majority
of this are includes around an inch, with selected areas of 2+
inches of precipitation.

This area is highly flash flood prone, and is traveled by hikers,
canyoneers, and campers in the Coyote Gulch area and other slot
canyons along the Hole In The Rock Road.

Flash flooding is expected to continue until the evening hours.
Depending on further thunderstorm development, flooding may continue
into the night time hours.

Please use prudent judgement when traveling through this area until
the morning hours of Saturday.

kajogp11

Excessive Heat Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Medford OR
227 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

CAZ080>083-ORZ023>028-290930-
/O.NEW.KMFR.EH.A.0001.170731T1800Z-170804T0300Z/
Western Siskiyou County-Central Siskiyou County-
South Central Siskiyou County-
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County-
Central Douglas County-Eastern Curry County and Josephine County-
Eastern Douglas County Foothills-Jackson County-
South Central Oregon Cascades-
Siskiyou Mountains and Southern Oregon Cascades-
Including the cities of Etna, Fort Jones, Yreka, Weed,
Mount Shasta, Dunsmuir, Mccloud, Roseburg, Sutherlin, Green,
Myrtle Creek, Canyonville, Glendale, Grants Pass, Cave Junction,
Steamboat, Toketee Falls, Medford, Ashland, Union Creek,
Howard Prairie, and Siskiyou Summit
227 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Medford has issued an Excessive
Heat Watch...which is in effect from Monday morning through
Thursday evening.

* Valley Temperatures: Daily high temperatures of 100 to 110
  degrees, with overnight lows of 65 to 75 degrees.

* Mountain Temperatures: Daily high temperatures of 95 to 100
  degrees, with overnight lows of 70 to 75 degrees.

* Locations include: Most of Douglas, Jackson, Josephine, and
  Siskiyou counties, including Medford, Roseburg, Grants Pass,
  Montague, Mount Shasta City, and the Cascades.

* Impacts: Very high temperatures and limited relief overnight
  will increase chances for heat related illness, especially for
  sensitive groups and people without access to air conditioning.
  Heat stress is possible for livestock and outdoor pets. Also,
  area rivers still run cold and fast, increasing the risk for
  hypothermia and water rescues.

* View the hazard area in detail at
  https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mfr/HAZARD

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

* An Excessive Heat Watch means that a prolonged period of hot
  temperatures is expected.

* These hot temperatures are likely to create a DANGEROUS
  SITUATION in which heat illnesses are possible.

* Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, and
  stay out of the sun.

123456mlbe

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-290500-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
900 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop across the
area into the afternoon. Greatest coverage of this activity is
expected toward Brevard County and the Treasure Coast into mid to
late afternoon, where sea and lake breeze boundary collisions are
favored. A few stronger storms will be possible, producing
frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph
and locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. Storm motion will be
toward the east around 10 to 15 mph.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Hot temperatures with highs in the mid 90s and high humidity
today will again create a dangerous situation in which heat
illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-
conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives
and neighbors.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered storms will develop this afternoon, moving
eastward around 10 to 15 knots across inland lakes and offshore,
especially from the Cape southward from mid to late afternoon. Any
storms that develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts
in excess of 34 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
Drier air and lack of an east coast sea breeze will keep
thunderstorm coverage below normal Saturday. Increasing moisture
ahead of an approaching frontal trough will then lead to
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms Sunday
afternoon into early next week. The main threats from storms will
be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

$$

usaaveterans

Another Dud Thank God

A disturbance off the coast of AFRICA near the Cabo Verde Islands.   The system will roll along and right now and is, not much to look at.   After five days, that changes. A bit better environment happens.

It is my feeling that this storm it will disappear and end up as a moisture regime or not even that.  Time will tell.  Hopefully it stays away from New York. (Flooding,  Road Closures.)

cape-MMAP-md.png

Harta Capul Verde.jpg

two_atl_2d0 (7).png

PA/NY – No rest for the weary as this latest of band of RAIN occurs.

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service State College PA
146 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017


PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-280200-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FF.A.0009.170728T1800Z-170729T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford,
McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey,
Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
146 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in State College has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central Pennsylvania,
  including the following areas, Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria,
  Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata,
  Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Perry, Somerset, and York.

* From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon

* Heavy rainfall of two to three inches with local amounts of
  over four inches is possible, especially in higher terrains.
  Areas that received the heavy rainfall last weekend are most
  susceptible to flooding.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
345 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

ARZ074-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ037>059-282045-
Ashley-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Tensas-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-
345 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Friday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Friday

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Friday

Heat stress concerns will be possible again on Friday as
temperatures will reach the mid-upper 90s. Heat index values will
peak near to above 105 degrees mainly south of the cold front
over southern and western areas.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of a
cold front moving into the area. Some thunderstorms are possible
early Friday morning before more redevelopment of likely stronger
storms are possible in the late afternoon into the evening hours.
Most storms will remain along & north of the I-20 corridor. Damaging
winds up to 60mph will be the main threat with any stronger
storms but can`t rule out some small hail.

In addition, heavy rainfall due to very high moisture feeding in
ahead of the cold front will lead to localized heavy rainfall &
potential for flash flooding. This will linger Friday afternoon &
into the overnight hours. This will mainly be confined along &
north of the I-20 corridor.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of a
cold front moving through the area on Saturday. Some thunderstorms
are possible early Saturday morning before more stronger storms
are expected through Saturday afternoon. Damaging winds up to
60mph will be the main threat with any stronger storms but can`t
rule out some small hail. The main threat will be along and south
of the I-20 corridor.

In addition, heavy rainfall due to very high moisture feeding in
ahead of the cold front will lead to localized heavy rainfall &
potential for flash flooding. This will linger Friday afternoon &
into the overnight hours. This will mainly be confined along &
north of the I-20 corridor.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
through Saturday.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
253 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
282000-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake Illinois-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-
DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-
Iroquois-Ford-Lake Indiana-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
253 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 /353 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk far south this afternoon.
  High Swim Risk.

DISCUSSION:
There is a chance of thunderstorms today mainly south,
but no severe weather is expected. High waves
along the Illinois and Indiana shore will lead to dangerous
swimming conditions. These will continue through at least midday
Saturday.

In addition...flooding continues on several area rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Wednesday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Moving south-southeast at 15 mph.

&&

$$



Beach Hazards Statement

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
353 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2017

ILZ006-014-INZ001-002-280500-
/O.EXT.KLOT.BH.S.0010.000000T0000Z-170730T0000Z/
LAKE IL-COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
353 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* TIMING...DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
  THROUGH SATURDAY.

* FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND STRUCTURAL CURRENTS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.
PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE, WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN
SANDBARS. RIP CURRENTS CAN SWEEP YOU INTO DEEPER WATER.

STRUCTURAL CURRENTS FORM ALONG PIERS WHERE LONGSHORE CURRENTS AND
WAVE ACTION FLOW INTO THE STRUCTURE. STRUCTURAL CURRENTS CAN
SWEEP YOU INTO DEEPER WATER ALONG THE PIER STRUCTURE.

EXPOSED BEACHES ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE AND CURRENT IMPACTS. IMPACTS AT BEACHES WITH
PROTECTIVE BREAKWALLS OR JETTIES WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
253 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
282000-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake Illinois-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-
DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston-
Iroquois-Ford-Lake Indiana-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
253 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 /353 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk far south this afternoon.
  High Swim Risk.

DISCUSSION:
There is a chance of thunderstorms today mainly south,
but no severe weather is expected. High waves
along the Illinois and Indiana shore will lead to dangerous
swimming conditions. These will continue through at least midday
Saturday.

In addition...flooding continues on several area rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Wednesday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Moving south-southeast at 15 mph.

&&

$$



Beach Hazards Statement

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
353 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2017

ILZ006-014-INZ001-002-280500-
/O.EXT.KLOT.BH.S.0010.000000T0000Z-170730T0000Z/
LAKE IL-COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-
353 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* TIMING...DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
  THROUGH SATURDAY.

* FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND STRUCTURAL CURRENTS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.
PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE, WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN
SANDBARS. RIP CURRENTS CAN SWEEP YOU INTO DEEPER WATER.

STRUCTURAL CURRENTS FORM ALONG PIERS WHERE LONGSHORE CURRENTS AND
WAVE ACTION FLOW INTO THE STRUCTURE. STRUCTURAL CURRENTS CAN
SWEEP YOU INTO DEEPER WATER ALONG THE PIsouthrockies_loop (1).gifER STRUCTURE.

A Little Bit of Heat.. Wednesday 7/26, 2017

18953924_BG2_t755_hd62628463bdcc7ad041cbed806bea3d5f0c2f862.jpg

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
135 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain this afternoon
and evening. These storms could produce gusty wind and occasional
lighting.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 

 

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
434 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2017

…THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM PDT FOR
CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY…

At 430 PM PDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms were producing over one inch of rain per hour across
parts of the area between Rachel and the North Pahroc Range in
central Lincoln County. The thunderstorms were moving to the
northeast around 10 mph.

Some locations that will experience flooding include…
State Route 375 just west of Crystal Springs toward Hancock Summit,
State Route 318 north of Hiko.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

595a8c04cbe82.image.jpg

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
146 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

ARZ016-021-022-025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-270400-
/O.CON.KLZK.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-170728T0100Z/
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-
Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-
Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-
Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-
Drew-
Including the cities of Batesville, Clarksville, Russellville,
Newport, Booneville, Paris, Morrilton, Conway, Searcy, Beebe,
Augusta, McCrory, Cotton Plant, Waldron, Dardanelle, Danville,
Ola, Perryville, Mena, Mount Ida, Norman, Hot Springs, Benton,
Bryant, Little Rock, North Little Rock, Cabot, Lonoke, Des Arc,
Hazen, Brinkley, Clarendon, Glenwood, Murfreesboro, Arkadelphia,
Malvern, Sheridan, Pine Bluff, Stuttgart, De Witt, Fordyce,
Kingsland, Rison, Star City, Gould, Dumas, Mcgehee, Camden,
Hampton, Thornton, Warren, and Monticello
146 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY...

* EVENT: Heat index values will rise to around or just over 105
  degrees.

* AREAS AFFECTED: The Arkansas River Valley and the northeastern
  delta counties...including metropolitan Little Rock.

* TIMING: Expect the heat index values to reach around 105, this
  afternoon, as well as Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS: Oppressive conditions may lead to heat stroke and
  dehydration for people outdoors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

Take extra precautions...if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency...call 9 1 1.

&&

$$


 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271145-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
642 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions continue today, with highs in the upper
90s and heat index values of around 105 degrees expected for much
of Arkansas. Heat advisories have been issued to account for this.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Thursday will also be hot and humid, with highs once again
reaching into the upper 90s for many locations and afternoon heat
index values of around 105 degrees for several hours.

Thursday night into Friday, a cold front and accompanying showers
and thunderstorms will move into the state. While widespread
severe storms are not expected, a few strong storms with strong
winds could occur.
images (13).jpg

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
146 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

ARZ016-021-022-025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-270400-
/O.CON.KLZK.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-170728T0100Z/
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-
Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-
Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-
Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-
Drew-
Including the cities of Batesville, Clarksville, Russellville,
Newport, Booneville, Paris, Morrilton, Conway, Searcy, Beebe,
Augusta, McCrory, Cotton Plant, Waldron, Dardanelle, Danville,
Ola, Perryville, Mena, Mount Ida, Norman, Hot Springs, Benton,
Bryant, Little Rock, North Little Rock, Cabot, Lonoke, Des Arc,
Hazen, Brinkley, Clarendon, Glenwood, Murfreesboro, Arkadelphia,
Malvern, Sheridan, Pine Bluff, Stuttgart, De Witt, Fordyce,
Kingsland, Rison, Star City, Gould, Dumas, Mcgehee, Camden,
Hampton, Thornton, Warren, and Monticello
146 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY...

* EVENT: Heat index values will rise to around or just over 105
  degrees.

* AREAS AFFECTED: The Arkansas River Valley and the northeastern
  delta counties...including metropolitan Little Rock.

* TIMING: Expect the heat index values to reach around 105, this
  afternoon, as well as Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS: Oppressive conditions may lead to heat stroke and
  dehydration for people outdoors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay in an air-conditioned
room...stay out of the sun...and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

Take extra precautions...if you work or spend time outside. When
possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work...the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency...call 9 1 1.

&&

$$


 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
642 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271145-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-
Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
642 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot and humid conditions continue today, with highs in the upper
90s and heat index values of around 105 degrees expected for much
of Arkansas. Heat advisories have been issued to account for this.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday Through Tuesday

Thursday will also be hot and humid, with highs once again
reaching into the upper 90s for many locations and afternoon heat
index values of around 105 degrees for several hours.

Thursday night into Friday, a cold front and accompanying showers
and thunderstorms will move into the state. While widespread
severe storms are not expected, a few strong storms with strong
winds could occur.