Out of the Yucatan. Next stop Campeche

The timing is what was expected.  The pressure was fairly high at 1002mb.   The winds 35-40kts sustained and movement WNW at 10-12kts.  As it goes over the Bay of Compeche, it will strengthen up to near Hurricane Strength.

And once it make it makes landfall,  its dissipation will be quite soon.  One other variable  is a continued WNW track or NW.  It’s landfall would be later but that really is not going to happen.

Satellite imagery is showing a ragged center with the circulation depicting just that.

GULFWV172201715

southmissvly

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-057-091945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Jasper-
239 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Wednesday

Periods of rain and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the period. Rainfall amounts of three to five inches are
possible over already saturated soils. These conditions could
easily result in flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ026>052-090415-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-170810T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Grenada,
Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben,
Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville,
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens,
Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville,
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton,
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg,
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, and Meridian
310 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and
  Mississippi, including the following areas in southeast
  Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot. In northeast Louisiana, East
  Carroll, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland and West Carroll. In
  Mississippi, Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Hinds,
  Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Kemper, Lauderdale, Leake,
  Lowndes, Madison MS, Montgomery, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee,
  Oktibbeha, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Warren, Washington,
  Webster, Winston and Yazoo.

* Through Wednesday evening

* Periods of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will continue over
  the watch area through Wednesday. Localized rainfall of three to
  five inches in a short period could lead to flash flooding.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways,
  remember to turn around, don`t drown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

MSC055-125-151-082145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170808T2145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Washington MS-Issaquena MS-Sharkey MS-
303 PM CDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHERN SHARKEY
COUNTIES...

At 257 PM CDT, emergency management reported flash flooding over
some roads in northern Issaquena County. Up to 3 to 4 inches of rain
have already fallen with thunderstorms within the last 2 to 3 hours,
especially over northern Issaquena and northwest Sharkey County.
Nearly 7 to 9 inches of rain has fallen over the last 24 hours.
Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Grace, Panther Burn, Nitta Yuma, Murphy, Glen
Allan, Delta City and Mayersville.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area, especially over northern Sharkey County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.  HGX_loop

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-090845-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
343 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall continues to fall across much of the Houston Metro
this morning. A steady moderate to heavy rain is expected to
continue throughout the morning hours and into the daytime today.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Harris, Wharton, Fort Bend,
Brazoria, Galveston, Chambers, and Liberty counties until 8 AM,
but may be extended depending on how the system evolves over the
next several hours. If you are under a Flash Flood Warning and are
in a safe place, do not attempt to leave. If you must be on the
roads, do not drive through flooded roadways and report any
flooding to local law enforcement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible on
Wednesday. Some of these thunderstorms may be capable of brief
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooding to the NWS or local law
enforcement if they can do so safely.

$$



Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-091300-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170809T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chambers-Harris-Liberty-Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-
Including the cities of Anahuac, Cleveland, Coldspring, Conroe,
Corrigan, Dayton, Houston, Humble, Katy, Liberty, Livingston,
Mont Belvieu, Onalaska, Pasadena, Shepherd, The Woodlands,
Tomball, Willis, and Winnie
225 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Texas...including the following
  counties...Chambers...Harris...Liberty...Montgomery...Polk and
  San Jacinto.

* Through Wednesday morning

* Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to become
  widespread across the watch area this evening and continue into
  Wednesday. Rainfall over the past few days has led to saturated
  soil conditions. Storms that repeatably move over the same
  locations with rainfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour will
  lead to flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway.  The water depth may be too great to allow your car to
cross safely.  Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned
quickly.  If your vehicle stalls...abandon it and seek higher
ground immediately.  Rapidly rising water may engulf your vehicle
and its occupants and sweep them away.  Move to higher ground.

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$



Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...

  Greens Bayou At U.S. Hwy 59 affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris
  Greens Bayou At Ley Road affecting the following counties in Texas...Harris


For Greens Bayou at U.S. Hwy 59...Ley Road, Minor flooding is occuring, with
Moderate flooding forecasted.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few
days.



Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

TXC201-082156-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0035.170808T1731Z-170809T0142Z/
/GBLT2.1.ER.170808T1731Z.170808T1800Z.170808T1942Z.NO/
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2017

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Greens Bayou At Ley Road.
* from this afternoon to this evening...or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0445 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise to
  near 30.4 feet by this afternoon.the river will fall below flood stage by this
  afternoon.
* At 30.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gage.



&&
                     Flood  Observed             Forecast 6 AM
Location             Stage  Stage   Day Time     Wed    Thu    Fri    Sat

Greens Bayou
  Ley Road             30    11.1   Tue 05 AM     16.1    4.9    3.5

images (18)

Air Quality Alert

WAC005-013-021-037-039-071-077-091800-
Benton-Columbia-Franklin-Kittitas-Klickitat-Walla Walla-Yakima-
Including the cities of Kennewick, Richland, Benton City, Prosser,
West Richland, Hanford, Dayton, Starbuck, Pasco, Connell,
Ellensburg, Cle Elum, Easton, Goldendale, White Salmon, Trout Lake,
Bickleton, Roosevelt, College Place, Walla Walla, Burbank,
Waitsburg, Prescott, Grandview, Sunnyside, Toppenish, Yakima,
Granger, Mabton, Selah, Wapato, White Swan, Zillah, Naches,
and Cliffdell
1030 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...AIR QUALITY ALERT IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY...

The Washington State Department of Ecology has issued an Air Quality
Alert...in effect until noon PDT Saturday for the following counties:

Kittitas
Yakima
Klickitat
Benton
Franklin
Walla Walla
Columbia

A Smoke Air Quality Alert has been issued. Wildfires burning in the
region combined with forecasted conditions will cause air quality to
reach unhealthy levels.

Pollutants in smoke can cause burning eyes, runny nose, aggravate
heart and lung diseases, and aggravate other serious health
problems. Children, the elderly, and individuals with respiratory
illnesses are most at risk of serious health effects. If you
experience respiratory distress, you should speak with your
physician. Limit outdoor activities and keep children indoors if it
is smoky. Please follow medical advice if you have a heart or lung
condition.

Information about air quality is on the Washington Department of
Ecology Web site at http://www.ecy.wa.gov/air.html or call 360-407-
6000.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...Hot temperatures expected for much of the week...

.High pressure will keep hot and dry conditions over much of the
inland Northwest for much of the week.

WAZ026-027-082300-
/O.NEW.KPDT.HT.Y.0003.170808T2000Z-170811T0300Z/
Kittitas Valley-Yakima Valley-
including the cities of Ellensburg, Thorp, Naches, Sunnyside,
Toppenish, and Yakima
228 AM PDT Tue Aug 8 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Pendleton has issued a Heat
Advisory...which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM
PDT Thursday.

* HIGH TEMPERATURES...101 to 105.

* TIMING...This afternoon through early Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Those working or spending extended periods outdoors
  will be at increased risk of heat illness.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot afternoon temperatures and warm
overnight temperatures will combine to create a situation in
which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids...stay
in an air conditioned room...stay out of the sun...and check up
on relatives and neighbors.
SREF_H5__f081

Hurricane/Tropical Franklin

Well,  that was easy and will remain so.  From Tropical Storm to Hurricane and back to a Tropical Storm.   Are we clear now?  It was pretty easy as far as a prediction is concerned.   As Franklin move towards the Yucatan

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

Visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized
tropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of
the convective cloud tops. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core,
which is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the
visible imagery. The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a
blend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along
with sampling considerations. Franklin has a well-defined,
symmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is
still expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near
hurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against
rapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur
due to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening
over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast.
Although northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat,
Franklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making
landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast.

Based on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary
and microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or
310/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically
unchanged. A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a
west-northwestward to westward course for the next several days.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
96H 11/1800Z…DISSIPATED

As mentioned above there are considerations as upper warming and some sheering.   The possibility of a strong Hurricane is not likely.   Tropical Storm Franklin will hastily dissipate because of it’s interaction with the Yucatan and then mostly a marginal Hurricane.  For the people in Mexico be advised that any Hurricane can be very dangerous no matter the strength and that is even true for Tropical Storms.

Nearing the Mexican Coastline,  the big issue will be winds,  flooding and potential for a few tornadoes in the Southeatern Quadrant of the storm and a few waterspouts.  (Tornadoes over water).    Frequent Lighting and power outages will be widespread.,

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

GULFIR172200045

HTX_loop (1)

Franklin is not the only story, even as these storms over portions of Alabama this evening.  The weather over Alabama are not related to the Tropical Weather.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
217 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-081100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
217 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue into the evening
and overnight hours, as a weak frontal boundary shifts south through
the area. A few of these storms could become strong and produce gusty
winds. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is possible which may
lead to instances of flash flooding in low lying and urban areas,
especially south of the Tennessee River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

A stalled frontal boundary just south of the area will keep isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast most of the
upcoming week.

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms develops again toward
the end of the week and into the weekend as this boundary moves
north over the area. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
during this timeframe, possibly producing some flash flooding.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

$$


 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
750 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

ALC103-080230-
/O.CON.KHUN.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170808T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morgan AL-
750 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that earlier thunderstorms produced heavy rain over the warned area.
Two to three inches of rain have already fallen, with additional
light rain expected to continue over the next two hours. Flash
flooding may be occurring along low-lying spots and near streams and
creeks.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Decatur, Hartselle, Priceville, Trinity, Somerville and Basham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.                            
  

Tropical Storm Franklin 08/07/2017

144055

Right now, it appears as if Franklin is at its strongest. Its core is winding up but it’s center will be torn a little as it moves into the Yucatan Peninsula and then reforming for awhile in the Southern Bay of Campeche.  After that, it is Mexico-bound.  It should not have any discernable effect on the Lower 48 states (CONUS).

There is the possibility that high winds and rough seas will be near the Southern portions of the state of Texas.  There is nothing contradicting this,  at this time.

Flooding near BWI and adjacent areas.   A few warnings possible this afternoon with severe thunderstorms and flooding.    A wide area of coverage in the Baltimore, Washington DC, and Dover areas.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-080900-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
355 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Areas of patchy fog or possible Monday morning, though should
 steadily dissipate after sunrise. An isolated thunderstorm or two
 is possible across northern Missouri this afternoon. No severe
 weather is expected with this activity.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Widespread thunderstorms will make a return by Wednesday into
 Thursday. Additional storm chances are then possible heading into
 the weekend. At this time, no severe weather or hydrological
 concerns are expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
157 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Big Creek at Blairstown affecting Cass...Henry and Johnson Counties.

  South Grand River at Urich affecting Bates...Cass and Henry
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-081857-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0165.000000T0000Z-170809T1326Z/
/BLRM7.2.ER.170806T0541Z.170806T2300Z.170808T1326Z.UU/
157 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Creek at Blairstown.
* until Wednesday morning.
* At  1:00 PM Monday the stage was 24.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Tuesday morning.
* At 23.0 feet...Flooding occurs at the west approach to the N
  Highway bridge located 0.2 miles west of Blairstown. Flooding also
  occurs across B Highway near Big Creek which is several miles
  northwest of Blairstown.
* At 20.0 feet...The west bank of the creek begins to flood.

&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Big Creek
  Blairstown      20   24.6   Mon 01 PM   23.9 this evening

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9422 3875 9416 3857 9394 3840 9384 3840 9391



$$


 

Flood Warning

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
117 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

MOC083-101-159-081845-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FA.W.0026.000000T0000Z-170808T1845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Henry MO-Pettis MO-Johnson MO-
117 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Henry County in west central Missouri...
  Pettis County in central Missouri...
  Johnson County in west central Missouri...

* Until 145 PM CDT Tuesday

* At 115 PM CDT, Numerous roads in the warned area remain closed due
  to the torrential rain that fell Saturday night. Check local
  department of transportation websites for more information on road
  closures, and drive carefully, especially at night.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Sedalia, Warrensburg, Clinton, Windsor, Knob Noster, Holden,
  Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, Leeton, Urich, Green Ridge,
  Calhoun, Deepwater, Montrose, Creighton, Chilhowee, Kingsville,
  Houstonia, Whiteman Afb and Coal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9407 3857 9407 3857 9412 3866 9413
      3892 9411 3891 9384 3894 9383 3894 9336
      3885 9315 3853 9316 3854 9328 3852 9330
      3851 9352 3821 9353

$$

Leighton


 

Flood Warning

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
850 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Lamine River near Otterville affecting Cooper County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Missouri...

  Blackwater River at Valley City affecting Johnson and Pettis
  Counties.

  Blackwater River near Blue Lick affecting Cooper and Saline
  Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC101-159-081350-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0166.000000T0000Z-170810T0138Z/
/VLYM7.3.ER.170806T0334Z.170807T0630Z.170809T0138Z.NR/
850 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Blackwater River at Valley City.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 32.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
  Tuesday evening.
* At 31.0 feet...Extensive flooding of rural property and many roads
  occurs.
* At 25.0 feet...County Highway E near Valley City and Highway 23
  near the Perry State Wildlife Area are under water.
* At 22.0 feet...Woodlands and farm fields along the river begin to
  flood.


&&
                       Latest
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Blackwater River
  Valley City     22   32.5   Mon 08 AM   31.2 this afternoon

&&

LAT...LON 3894 9342 3882 9361 3882 9368 3891 9361 3899 9348 -x              

One Weak, the other Mexico-bound

These tropical storm systems are a lot of nothing, or at the very least no major threat to the United States (CONUS).     Its a good thing also,  after the Southern Tier of New York suffered a lot of damage.

two_atl_2d0 (14)

Rte 17 being shut down in places with the worst flooding since Hurricane/Tropical Sorm Agnes had its own periods of torrential rain,  flooding and thousands of disposessed people.

I remember helping out in Mansfield, PA and while prophylactic measures were undertaken, Mother Nature is respector of human intervention.  Agnes was potent because the storm stalled off the coast of NYC.

Pictures shocked the public and creeks turned into rivers and rivers into ersatz lakes.  No need for the Finger Lakes,  that’s for sure.

haggt

images (14)images (15)

images (16)images (17)

Fortunately we can begin to lower probabilities but not altogether.   And as for  the tropicals storms near the Yucatan and Cape Verde Islands, we can breathe a sigh of relief.   Major news sees a gone chance of flooding and their crocodile tears.  No per diem this time around.

I do not remember power going out for very long.  Hospital was not far away.  My uncle who worked the Corning Glass works had a heart attack after carrying my aunt for a couple of miles.

AgnesRFC10

 

 

Just when you were safe. 8/6/17.

The tropics are coming to life.   We have two tropcial systems in our sights.  The first will makes its mark, moving to the  Yucatan Peninsula,   Bay of Compeche and towards Honduras.

Some strengthening may be possible.   This an expansive system and will probably be some kind of  named storm,  by the middle of the week..

This interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula may weaken it. But not for long.  The Bay of Compeche is favorable as it glides WNW.

The next system is near the Cape Verde Islands.   It is elongated,  disorganized and potentially favorable for development, in the next severable days.

hurricane-clipart-hurricane.03hurricane-clipart-red-hurricane-clipart-1

hurricane-clipart-hurricane-shelter-clipart-1

Be smart,  do not stand in the storm.  One reporter (Independence Day) was standing in the wind and was hit by a steel partition.  People were cheering,  sick of the stupid weather individual.

download (2)yyy

yyyudfdf

Two Tropical Storms.

Eyes are to the East tonight as forecasters try to make sense of two storms.   Of course it is going to take a few days to ascertain that.   I have witnessed countless times, where forecasters use models and those models being useless.

two_atl_2d0 (13)

    Many times it is a blend of numbers.  If even one value is wrong, so can the whole forecast.   That is assuming that models are any true indice of coherence.   My experience is, that a more pragmatic approach is necessary.  I have seen rain chances of 80%,   being way off.  EIGHT DAYS OFF(only Virga).   Essentially rain that does not make it to the surface.

During the Winter Nationals at East Bay Raceway,  weather during these races are a make or break proposition.  Hundreds of thousands of dollars are at stake.  Even bankruptcy.  Track owners know I have their best interest at heart.  I do!  So I do not necessarily trust models.  We weigh a model’s reliability as time goes on.

In one instance,  Tampa forecasters blew it.  In the fourth of four storms they progged a lot of rain affecting the West Coast of Florida.   I challenged the status quo and we were the only track that raced that evening.   The announcers said that I am much more reliable that the TV and  radio Meteorologists.  Their assessment was and is correct.

The basics are considered first and observation is the very basic component.  In a forecast at Ramstein forecast units were forecasting.  I challenged them on the rain,  postulating that at all basic levels RH was only 5-15%.  How can you have rain without clouds.   Then as forecasts were for rain,  I saw an evolving and fluid situation.    The Benelux had a massive area of severe thunderstorms.

Paris was the key.  From there was a noticeable windshift and that was the catalyst for those storms.  88 MPH winds.  I simply used extrapolation and that was it.  A four-star general said that was the best logic that he had seen, in a very long time.

 During the 410 Sprint Car races, a LEWP (line echo wave pattern) begun to happen and the sponsor said my forecast was critical.  A tornado happened.  That is important, needless to say.  Sure I am wrong at times, but my forecasts are the Gold Standard.  My bro-in-law is a Late Model driver.   

lewp

LEWP11LEWP211apr20_bowecho1_rdr_KILX_01z_from grenci_hires_LABELS_crop

You really have to consider ALL options.  It really matters!!!

Meteorologist Larry Olson

(Mike Scott)