Harvey 130mph? What?

Even though this storm turned out to be a formidable one.  This system is open-ended with regards to heavy rainfall and perhaps a whole lot more.  Already some event,  namely football have been cancelled and for good reason.

213129

213129WPCQPF_sm

 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

…EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN PORT
ARANSAS AND PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS…
…CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.8N 96.8W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…941 MB…27.79 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
complete.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.8
North, longitude 96.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest
near 8 mph (13 km/h), but its forward speed is expected to decrease
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
make landfall on the middle Texas coast during the next several
hours. Harvey is then likely to meander near or just inland of the
middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength
is likely before landfall. Weakening is then expected over the
weekend while the center moves inland over Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 79 mph (128 km/h)
and a wind gust of 101 mph (163 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Port O’Connor…9 to 13 ft
Elsewhere N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to
12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring along the coast in
the Port Aransas area and should spread over other portions of the
hurricane warning area during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the hurricane
and tropical storm warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwestern Louisiana.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

============================================================================

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD…TEXAS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD…TEXAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF BOCA DE CATAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY
BE COMPLETE.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

============================================================================

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Despite its concentric eyewall structure, Harvey’s winds have
increased during the day. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter planes have measured maximum flight-level winds of 129 kt
and SFMR winds to 102 kt. Based on these data, Harvey’s maximum
surface winds are estimated to be 110 kt. Harvey’s central pressure
has also continued to fall, and the latest estimate based on
dropsonde data is 941 mb.

Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt. Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight. After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours. In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week. This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.

Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength. Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey’s slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast. Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey will make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening
storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas
coast. Tropical-storm-force winds have moved onshore in portions of
the warning areas and conditions will continue to deteriorate as
the eye of Harvey approaches the middle Texas coast tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 27.5N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
24H 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

=====================================================================

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
755 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ237-238-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

NOW LET ME BE PERFECTLY CLEAR.   THIS IS NO TIME TO BE AN EGGHEAD AND DRINK AND ACT A FOOT.    THIS IS A BAD ASS STORM!!!!

LISTEN TO EMT,  LOCAL RADIO AND TV SOURCES, including WX Channel and scanners.   Stay alive and be smart!

Well,  this is a crazy storm!!  It has deepened like a deep crevice opening, or a Caldera.   It WILL be nasty and it is going to ruin a lot of people’s lives.    This wv-animated (3)

Advertisements

Harvey is getting an attitude now!

The Pressure took a precipitous drop and this system is a major Hurricane with winds sustained at 95kts/110mph.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Multiple observing platforms indicate that Harvey’s structure is
evolving this morning. The hurricane has developed concentric
eyewalls, as observed in data from the WSR-88D Doppler radars in
Brownsville and Corpus Christi, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter plane reported double wind maxima with diameters of 12 and
28 n mi. The aircraft data indicate that the central pressure has
continued to fall–now down to 947 mb–but the maximum winds have
not increased further. This discrepancy is not surprising given
hurricane’s current structure.

Intensity forecasts become complicated once a hurricane develops
concentric eyewalls, and fluctuations in intensity become more
likely. If an eyewall replacement occurs, then Harvey’s intensity
could decrease a bit while at the same time the overall wind field
increases in size. However, the hurricane remains in an environment
for intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity
is still possible before the center reaches land. But in the end,
the hurricane’s exact intensity at landfall does not change the
fact that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland
across much of southern and southeastern Texas. Slow weakening is
expected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not
expected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to
maintain tropical storm status through Wednesday.

Harvey has not quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/9 kt. Strong mid-level ridging building over the
western United States is still expected to impede Harvey’s forward
motion in the coming days, and the track guidance continues to show
the hurricane meandering or stalling near or just inland of the
Texas coast in 36-48 hours. Harvey could begin moving slowly
eastward on days 4 and 5 due to the influence of a mid-level
shortwave trough digging southward over the upper Midwest, but at
this time it is too early to say whether the center will definitely
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall
tonight, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations should be
rushed to completion in the warning areas as tropical-storm-force
winds are arriving on the coast, and conditions will continue to
deteriorate through the rest of today and tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 26.7N 96.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 27.6N 96.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 28.4N 97.3W 90 KT 105 MPH…INLAND
36H 27/0000Z 28.8N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 28.3N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 30/1200Z 30.0N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND

============================================================================

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...OUTER RAINBAND FROM HARVEY SWIPING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COASTS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 96.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch south of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of
the Rio Grande has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 96.0 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward
speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the
middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely
to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  A buoy located about 40 miles east of South Padre
Island recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane
is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday.  During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana.  Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances.  For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are likely just beginning in
portions of the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.
Hurricane conditions are likely to begin within the hurricane
warning area later today or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... 
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  96.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  947 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  96.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  95.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.6N  96.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.4N  97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N  97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.9N  97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.3N  96.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N  95.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.0N  94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N  96.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


TCVAT4

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ237-238-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-252300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
252300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ191-206-252300-
/O.EXA.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
952 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?cone#contents

click about and see a vast array of products to keep you busy.

Harvey is a complex system,  with a varying profile, along with two centers. They most likely has two areas of rotation.  So with in mind, pay attention closely to this system

153146

Harvey – 85mph Sustained.

I have seen Hurricane Harvey drop from 1007mb down to 979mb.  This deepening is a very big issue as Hurricane Harvey roars northwest.  From the southern most tip of Texas to Louisiana will experience the effects of a powerful (Major Hurricane).

It had stopped and that is never really a good thing.  Stay tuned to your scanners and local Radio and TV weather men and women.  Also consider the commentary as a rule of thumb.  When it does strike land,  and the areas around the circumference will get the worst of the severe weather.  Waterspouts and Tornados and wind damage all around Harvey.

BE CAREFUL —–   Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)

GULFIR172361815

000
WTNT24 KNHC 241804 CCA
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HARVEY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1800 UTC THU AUG 24 2017

CORRECTED FOR EXTENSION OF STORM SURGE WARNING

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEAST OF SAN LUIS
PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS… CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE… IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IN ADDITION… INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.6W AT 24/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.6W AT 24/1800Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT…100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


WTNT34 KNHC 241805 CCB
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Special Advisory Number 17…CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Corrected for extension of Storm Surge Warning

…HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING…
…PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI…525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…979 MB…28.91 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northeast of San Luis
Pass to High Island Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.6
West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and
Harvey’s forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the
middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early
Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to
central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches
extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

====================================================================

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
157 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ235-236-242>247-251-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ238-250200-
/O.UPG.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ234-250200-
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ237-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

======================================================================

 

Harvey II (for now)

 

 

 

 


211729WPCQPF_sm

 



 

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT HARVEY HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 525 MI…845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 460 MI…740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 92.5 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 2 mph (4
km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster
forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast
track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Harvey could become a tropical storm later tonight
and a hurricane on Friday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data and Mexican surface observations is 1003 mb
(29.62 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next
Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning.
Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to
9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the
rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could
cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Mansfield to High Island…4 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
* NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE…IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 92.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT… 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 92.6W

211729_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

High-resolution visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern
of Harvey is a little better organized than it was this morning, but
the system lacks distinct banding features. Surface synoptic
observations, ASCAT data, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and
SAB indicated that the cyclone has not strengthened, so the current
intensity is held at 30 kt. The global models predict that an
upper-level low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will essentially
dissipate in a day or so. Therefore, Harvey is expected to remain
in a relatively low-shear environment up to the Texas coast.
Moreover, ocean analyses show that a warm eddy that broke off from
the Loop Current has drifted westward across the Gulf to a location
near the projected path of Harvey. This would also be conducive to
strengthening, so it is likely that the system will become a
hurricane prior to landfall, although this is not explicitly shown
in the NHC forecast for which landfall is indicated between 48 and
72 hours.

Based on the scatterometer data and geostationary satellite fixes
the center hasn’t moved much this afternoon, although recent imagery
suggests a northwestward drift at about 320/2 kt. A weak mid-level
ridge to the northeast of Harvey should cause the cyclone to move
on a northwestward or north-northwestward track through 48 hours.
Later, steering currents weaken as a ridge builds over the
southwestern United States and a trough drops down from the Plains.
As a result, Harvey should decelerate while making landfall and
move very slowly just inland of the coast. Some of the track
guidance models, such as the HWRF, have shifted southwestward in
comparison to their previous run. The official track forecast is
very close to the previous one through 48 hours and is a little
slower and to the west after that time. This is very close to the
latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. It should be noted that
synoptic surveillance data are currently being collected by the NOAA
G-IV jet aircraft and these data will be assimilated into, and
hopefully improve the forecasts by, the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy
rainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions
of the Texas coast beginning on Friday.

2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern
Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday
through early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High
Island, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the
next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario –
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is
based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best
represents the flooding potential in those locations within the
watch area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 21.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND211729_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211729.shtml?gm_track#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211729.shtml?wsurge#contents

 

The top-2 links are very informative and for people along those areas, these links might be very useful to you.

GMZ001-240845-  Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico  434 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017      .SYNOPSIS…Tropical Depression Harvey is centered near 21.6N  92.6W at 5 PM EDT, moving NW, or 312 degrees at 2 kt. Maximum  sustained winds are 30 kt gusting to 40 kt. Harvey is forecast  to intensify to tropical storm strength this evening, moving  inland over southern Texas Friday night.    $$


GMZ011-240845-  NW Gulf including Stetson Bank-  434 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

 TROPICAL STORM WARNING    TONIGHT  E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.  THU  NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, building to 11 ft  in the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

 THU NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E winds 25 to  30 kt,increasing to 35 to 40 kt late. Seas 17 ft, building to 24  ft late. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. FRI   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SE winds 45 to 55  kt. Seas 22 to 27 ft. Scattered showers and isolated  thunderstorms.

 FRI NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SE to S winds  45 to 55 kt. Seas 18 ft, subsiding to 13 ft late.  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

 SAT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  

SAT NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

 SUN  S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

 SUN NIGHT   TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

 MON NIGHT  SW to W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.

 

More fun With Harvey

Ole Harvery is a stubborn and vexing system.   I like the caveat “In any case, it will cause heavy rain”.   Captain Obious has that right. lol.    The heavy rain-maker is a given anyhow.    Oddly enough there has been some Anti-Cyclonic in the Central Gulf of Mexico.

With some of that cloudiness disappearing and convection being to fire up, it is something to be mindful of. Harvey will experience some drag over the Yucatan Peninsula.   It’s strength and trajectory in the next 1-2 days will affect this sys

I am still leaning towards a strong Tropical Wave or System (depression)  Maybe  it needs an SSRI. Smh.

Disturbance two will form over Florida and most of that will veer away causing only winds, rains and high surf.

two_atl_2d0 (23)

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula
and adjacent water areas are associated with the remnants of Harvey.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development when the system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight,
and a tropical depression is expected to form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread
westward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day
or so. Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends from 24N87W to 13N88W moving W-NW at 
10-15 kt. The remnant circulation of Harvey continues to be 
analyzed as a 1011 mb low pressure along the wave axis near 
18N88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 
18N-23N between 79W-89W. Satellite images and surface 
observations indicates the low is along the coast of N Belize. 
Tropical cyclone development is expected when the system moves 
over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread 
westward across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 
day or so. There is a high chance for this system to become a 
tropical cyclone within 48 hours. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 24N29W to 10N32W moving W at 15-20 
kt. A 1011 mb low pressure precedes the wave centered near 
12N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-14N between 
25W-33W. This wave in a moist area based on TPW imagery and has a
well pronounced 700 mb trough.

A tropical wave extends from Puerto Rico near 19N67W to Venezuela
near 10N68W, moving W at 20-25 kt. Isolated showers are within 120
nm of the wave axis. Subtle troughing is noted on 700 mb streamline
analysis. Some moisture is observed on either side of the wave 
axis based on the SSMI TPW animation. This wave will cross the 
central Caribbean through mid-week.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 18N27W to 12N38W to 
07N42W to 07N46W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis 
continues from 07N46W to 06N58W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 08N-14N 
between 12W-17W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N 
between 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
30N. 10-15 kt easterly surface flow is over the N Gulf. The
northern extent of a tropical wave is producing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection over the SE Gulf of Mexico, Yucatan
Channel, and the N Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are also advecting over S Florida from the 
Atlantic. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the W Gulf near 27N91W enhancing showers. Expect over the next 24
hours for the upper level low to remain quasi-stationary and 
continue to produce showers. Looking ahead, the remnant low of 
Harvey and tropical wave, will traverse the Yucatan Peninsula 
today, and then move into the Bay of Campeche Wednesday, where 
redevelopment to a tropical cyclone appears likely.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnant low of Harvey currently located over N Belize continues
to be the primary area of concern across the basin. Please, see 
Special Features section for more details. A tropical wave is over
the eastern Caribbean. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for
details. Patches of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow are noted over parts of the east and central Caribbean. 
Fresh SE winds are observed per scatterometer data across the 
central Caribbean, but mainly N of 13N. These winds are the result
of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the 
remnant low of Harvey. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently, showers are over SW Haiti. However,daytime heating, 
local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will combined with 
available moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours today. The next tropical 
wave is forecast to pass just south of the island tonight into 
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough of low pressure continues to move westward across the
Bahamas and now extends from 29N77W across the N Bahamas to
central Cuba near 22N79W. This system continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with fresh to strong winds
mainly on its NW side based on scatterometer data. Only slow 
development of this system is anticipated today while it moves 
west-northwestward towards Florida. Farther east, there is 
another surface trough that extends 24N55W to 16N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 23N-25N between 51W-54W. An upper- 
level low is also centered near 27N59W. A 1022 mb high is centered
W of Bermuda near 32N72W. Another 1022 mb high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 32N48W. The tail end of a cold front is
over the E Atlantic from 31N32W to 28N40W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the front.  

two_atl_5d0 (14)

activity_loop (5)

Some of this energy above will result in more thunderstorms and some WILL be severe.

pwtr

300mb

mxth

The bottom-most map over the Southwest shows mixing. The biggest of which will naturally occur near the coastline, where land and sea (mix). When this mixing happens in tandem with forcing,  you have more available moisture and lift.

sfnt (1)

sfnt (1)

Harvey ?

Harvey has been a tough nut to crack.  First:  Storm Center has been inconsistent and thunderstorm patterns erratic.   So right now the center is anyone’s guess.   These sudden flare-ups of Thunderstorm activity are partly due to convection over-land and sea-breezes.

If anything, circulation is closer to Florida,  with an elongated center.   The system  looks to be just off of  Florida.  The million dollar question is the actual center,  sustained winds and pressure.  There is a bit of Thunderstorm activity  in a cyclonic pattern off the coast of Florida.  Some of that is attributed to Thunderstorm Tops.   But this picture is NOT set at this time.

So for now, the next pressure recording and sustained winds are very importsnt. Florida two clusters of thunderstorms.  Wait, three, my bad.  One is superimposed on another.

GULFWV172321615

GULFVS172321945

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210000-
/O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro,
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof,
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola,
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point,
Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko,
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage,
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson,
Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur,
Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst,
Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude,
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss,
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia,
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak
  afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those
  outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

&&

$$



 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

LAZ015-023>026-MSZ026>033-035>039-042>046-048>052-054>066-072>074-
212000-
Richland-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-
Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
258 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees will remain
possible through early this evening  Exposure to these conditions
will raise the likelihood of heat related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

$$

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.

download (8)

Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR EAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410
AND 425...

IDZ410-425-210300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170821T0300Z/
Upper Snake River Valley/Idaho Falls BLM-
Middle Snake River Valley/Twin Falls BLM north of the Snake River-
203 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR EAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 410 AND 425...

* AFFECTED AREA... Arco Desert Region of fire weather zone 410.
  Fire weather zone 425.

* WIND...Southwest to West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30
  mph.

* HUMIDITY...Minimum 9 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. Do not use fireworks.
  Engine heat from vehicles can spark wildfires, especially in
  grasses. Do not park on or drive over grassy areas or throw
  cigarettes out of cars.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. Fires may experience
rapid rates of growth. Please advise the appropriate officials or
fire crews in the field of the red flag warning for portions of
Southeast Idaho.

images (23)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
356 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
356 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening,
mainly for areas north of Interstate 70, where strong gusty winds
and hail to the size of quarter dollars will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night for areas north of Interstate 70, and again on Tuesday for
areas south and east of Saint Louis.

 

Where is Harvey?

two_atl_5d0 (12)

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

...UPDATED TO PLACE TROPICAL WAVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave extends across the central Caribbean with axis 
extending from 19N72W to a 1008 mb surface low near 14N72W to 
11N73W. This system was previously T.S Harvey. Scattered moderate
convection has developed during the past few hours near the low 
center mainly from 12N-17N between 73W-77W. A fast westward 
motion is expected to continue with this system for the next 
couple of days as the wave moves along the southern periphery of 
the subtropical ridge.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N45W to 10N46W, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a large area of 
cloudiness but convection is limited in association with this 
wave due to Saharan dust intrusion. This system coincides with a 
well defined 700 mb trough, and a high amplitude northward bulge 
of moisture is noted on the TPW product.

A tropical wave was introduced to this map over the eastern 
Caribbean, after analyzing upper-air soundings across the islands
and model guidance. The wave's axis extends from 19N65W to 10N64W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the
northern portion of the wave mainly north of 16N between 62W-66W
affecting the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. 

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending 
from western Cuba along 84W to near 10N84W, moving west at 10-15 
kt. The wave shows up very well on the TPW animation and 700 mb 
streamline analysis. Energy from the wave has fractured to the 
northeast and is analyzed as a surface trough currently located
over the Florida Peninsula. The wave is enhancing showers near
Honduras, Belize and adjacent waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to a
1008 mb low near 13N20W to 11N41W. The Intertropical Convergence 
Zone extends from 11N51W to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A large and well defined upper-level low centered over the
southeast Gulf near 25N85W continues to generate scattered 
showers over the Florida Straits. The western half of the Gulf is
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1016 mb 
high pressure centered near 29N90W. Isolated showers and light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail west of 90W. The upper-low will
drift westward reaching the central Gulf by Monday. This system 
will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf
waters today.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. Moisture associated with these tropical
waves will continue to affect the area increasing the likelihood 
of showers and thunderstorms today. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate trades across the basin, with the strongest winds
remaining east of 70W. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating, local sea breezes, and mountain upslope lifting 
will combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the island mainly during the afternoon 
and evening hours through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As previously mentioned, the northern part of the tropical wave 
currently moving across the western Caribbean is analyzed as a 
trough currently extending across southeast Florida. This trough 
is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 76W, and
will continue to move westward through the day. Another surface 
trough is analyzed northeast of the Leeward Islands extending from
25N65W to 20N65W. This trough continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms from 19N-25N between 61W-66W. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of 
this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of fresh to strong winds is
noted per scatterometer data on the northern side of this trough.
The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a surface
ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 32N39W. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds are also noted between the coast of Africa 
and the Madeira/Canary Islands. These winds are the result of the 
pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures 
over west Africa.


GULFIR172320915
The Central Pressure USA_06Z
Jackson-real-estate-investing-1024x683

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
210915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
403 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected to combine with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. This will result in
heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees from 11AM til 7PM.
Exposure to these conditions will raise the likelihood of heat
related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Maximum heat index values near 105 degrees are possible in the
Delta region on Monday. Prolonged exposure to these temperatures
or strenuous outdoor activities could be dangerous.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

$$

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.


...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss




Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
202215-
/O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg,
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro,
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof,
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola,
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton,
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point,
Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko,
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork,
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage,
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson,
Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur,
Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst,
Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude,
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss,
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia,
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
914 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak
  afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those
  outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and
health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks
in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by
heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke
is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

images (25)

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-211100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
609 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Daytime temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees will
combine with high humidity values today to produce heat index
values of 105 to 110 degrees. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in
effect until early this evening. In addition, a couple of isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially south of Interstate 20. No
severe weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Thunderstorms will remain possible each day through much of the
next week. Thunderstorms are expected areawide on Wednesday.

Heat index values will continue to range between 105 and 109
degrees across portions of the area through Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures and lower heat index values are expected after a cold
front moves across the area on Wednesday. Precautions should be
taken to prevent heat related injuries.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, skywarn networks, and amateur
radio operators is not anticipated through tonight.

$$



Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Heat Advisory Remains in Effect Today for Southeast Oklahoma,
Northwest and North Central Louisiana, Southwest and South Central
Arkansas, and parts of East and Northeast Texas...

.The combination of high temperatures in the middle and upper
nineties along with high humidity will result in heat indices of
105 to 109 degrees from this afternoon through early this
evening.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167-210000-
/O.CON.KSHV.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Cass-Marion-Gregg-
Harrison-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
Including the cities of De Queen, Nashville, Mineral Springs,
Dierks, Ashdown, Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps, Lewisville,
Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport, Bossier City, Minden,
Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston, Farmerville, Bernice,
Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia,
Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Monroe, Many, Zwolle,
Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield, Colfax, Montgomery,
Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena, Midway, Olla, Idabel,
Broken Bow, Atlanta, Linden, Hughes Springs, Queen City,
Jefferson, Longview, Marshall, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches,
Center, Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
353 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...High pressure aloft across the area will allow for
  temperatures to climb into the middle to upper nineties. These
  temperatures along with low level moisture will produce heat
  indices of 105 to 109 degrees.

* TIMING...Heat indices will be near 105 to 109 in the afternoon
  and early evening before lowering.

* IMPACT...Precautions should be taken to prevent heat related
  illnesses, including limiting outdoor work activities to the
  morning before temperatures rise and early evening after the
  readings lower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Take frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned
environments. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when
possible and drink plenty of water.

Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned
room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.