Harvey – Go away now

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

…CENTER OF HARVEY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA…
…FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA…

 

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

151152WPCQPF_sm (1)
———————————————–
LOCATION…30.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI…45 KM NNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM SW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.33 INCHES

=======================================================================

151152

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch is discontinued west of Sabine Pass, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Holly Beach Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sabine Pass Texas to west of Holly Beach Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

151152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

 

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.3 West. Harvey is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn
toward the northeast is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey should move through
southwestern and central Louisiana today and tonight, then move
through northeastern Louisiana and northwestern Mississippi Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours as Harvey moves
farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the south of the center. During the past few hours,
there have been reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in
southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas near Lake Charles,
Cameron, and Sabine Pass.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is
993 mb (29.33 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the
adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Tennessee and Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 10
inches. The threat of heavy rains has ended in the Houston/
Galveston area. However catastrophic and life threatening flooding
will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward
into southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week. The expected
heavy rains spreading northeastward from Louisiana into western
Kentucky may also lead to flash flooding and increased river, small
stream flooding. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF
YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please
see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather
Service office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

Elsewhere, the outer bands of Harvey are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf States and 2 to 4 inches farther north into
parts of the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic
through Saturday. These rains may lead to flooding concerns across
these areas.

A list of preliminary rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Holly Beach to Morgan City…2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach incl. Galveston Bay…1 to 3 ft
Morgan City to Grand Isle…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through
this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast
Arkansas.

151152_current_wind_sm

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

============================================================================

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS… TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SABINE PASS TEXAS TO WEST OF HOLLY BEACH LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES IN SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. PLEASE SEE WARNINGS
AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION…FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK…PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.3W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT……. 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.3W AT 30/1500Z…INLAND
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 93.5W…INLAND

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT…GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 93.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

151152_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

============================================================================

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has changed little in organization since landfall, with
satellite and radar data showing continued convective banding, most
notably in the northwestern quadrant. Winds gusts of 35-45 kt have
been reported over the coastal regions south of the center, and the
central pressure has risen only slightly to 993 mb. Based on these
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. It should be noted that
a large area of winds just below tropical-storm-force is occurring
over the Gulf of Mexico south of the coasts of south-central and
southeastern Louisiana.

Radar and surface observations indicate that the center of Harvey
moved northward for a period of several hours near landfall, but now
is resuming a north-northeastward motion of roughly 020/7. The
cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric
high, which should steer it north-northeastward and then
northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
during the next few days until the system dissipates.

Harvey should gradually weaken as it moves farther inland, with the
intensity expected to drop below tropical-storm strength shortly
after the 12 h point. Subsequently, the system should decay to a
remnant low by 72 h and dissipate completely by 96 h. The forecast
weakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall
and flooding along Harvey’s path, although the system’s faster
motion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what
occurred over southeastern Texas.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston,
Beaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by
the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 30.5N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 31.4N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
36H 01/0000Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.8N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
72H 02/1200Z 38.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/1200Z…DISSIPATED

============================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC WED AUG 30 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS…45 MPH…75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

JACKSON MS 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FORT POLK LA 34 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)

LAKE CHARLES 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)

CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

JASPER TX 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)

KOUNTZE TX 34 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

===============================================================

151152_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1059 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

LAZ052>054-073-074-302300-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

TXZ215-302300-
/O.CAN.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

LAZ041-042-055-056-059-065>068-TXZ216-302300-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
959 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…LCH…LIX…

=========================================================================

http://www.weather.gov/lix/satellite

activity_loop (6)

mcd1600

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Areas affected…Parts of east central and southeast Louisiana
through southern Mississippi

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 301451Z – 301645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…At least some risk for mainly isolated, relatively
short-lived tornadoes is already evident. The extent of this threat
remains a bit unclear, but it seems likely to increase into and
through early afternoon, particularly within a corridor across east
central and southeast Louisiana through much of southern
Mississippi, perhaps as far north as the I-20 corridor.

DISCUSSION…Beneath the lower/mid tropospheric dry slot to the east
of the remnant circulation center of Harvey, breaks in low-level
cloud cover are likely already allowing for an increase in boundary
layer instability in response to insolation. This should continue
into and through the midday hours, particularly within a narrow
plume of tropical boundary layer moisture (with surface dew points
of 75F+) wrapping across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal
areas, into the vicinity of the surface cyclone center which
continues to slowly track north northeast of Lake Charles.

Within/across this corridor of richer boundary layer moisture
content, a southeasterly component to the near surface flow beneath
southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 40 kt is already contributing
to favorable hodographs for the development of substantive low-level
mesocyclones. As cells embedded within ongoing and developing bands
of convection pivoting around Harvey occasionally strengthen, the
risk for mainly isolated, brief tornadoes will probably increase as
the boundary layer undergoes further destabilization into and
through early afternoon.

..Kerr/Grams.. 08/30/2017

…Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…MOB…JAN…LIX…LCH…SHV…

LAT…LON 32139187 32329116 32128998 31468851 30308856 29918954
30649045 30989167 31589237 32139187

mcd1600

   Mesoscale Discussion 1600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of east central and southeast Louisiana
   through southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 301451Z - 301645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...At least some risk for mainly isolated, relatively
   short-lived tornadoes is already evident.  The extent of this threat
   remains a bit unclear, but it seems likely to increase into and
   through early afternoon, particularly within a corridor across east
   central and southeast Louisiana through much of southern
   Mississippi, perhaps as far north as the I-20 corridor.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath the lower/mid tropospheric dry slot to the east
   of the remnant circulation center of Harvey, breaks in low-level
   cloud cover are likely already allowing for an increase in boundary
   layer instability in response to insolation.  This should continue
   into and through the midday hours, particularly within a narrow
   plume of tropical boundary layer moisture (with surface dew points
   of 75F+) wrapping across southeast Louisiana and Mississippi coastal
   areas, into the vicinity of the surface cyclone center which
   continues to slowly track north northeast of Lake Charles.

   Within/across this corridor of richer boundary layer moisture
   content, a southeasterly component to the near surface flow beneath
   southerly 850 mb flow on the order of 40 kt is already contributing
   to favorable hodographs for the development of substantive low-level
   mesocyclones.  As cells embedded within ongoing and developing bands
   of convection pivoting around Harvey occasionally strengthen, the
   risk for mainly isolated, brief tornadoes will probably increase as
   the boundary layer undergoes further destabilization into and
   through early afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/30/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32139187 32329116 32128998 31468851 30308856 29918954
               30649045 30989167 31589237 32139187 

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