Go away Harvey…

212527_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind (1)

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

…TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD…
…TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…29.2N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 060 DEGREES AT 2 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located by Doppler radar near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 97.4
West. Harvey has been drifting east-northeastward for the past few
hours. Little additional motion is anticipated during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. San Marcos Regional Airport recently reported
sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph
(85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over the middle and upper Texas
coast through Thursday. Isolated storm totals may reach around 40
inches in this area. Elsewhere during the same period, Harvey is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches
farther south toward the lower Texas coast, farther west toward the
Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of
this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Sargent…4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.

====================================================================

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 75NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 97.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 97.6

============================================================================

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.
Doppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since
there are no surface observations near the center, this is the
intensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is
anticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the
SHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey’s
circulation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could
weaken at a slower rate than shown here.

Harvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion
is anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain
light, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over
southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees
in which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree
that any motion will be quite slow.

 

Key Messages:

1. While Harvey’s winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards
will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern
Texas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.

2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to
25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through
Thursday. Please heed the advice of local officials and do not
drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of
rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be
found at: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to
recede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of
onshore flow. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.1N 97.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
12H 27/0600Z 29.1N 97.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 28.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 28.3N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 28.7N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND

====================================================================

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC SAT AUG 26 2017

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS…65 MPH…100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

 

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

FORT POLK LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6)

LAKE CHARLES 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)

CAMERON LA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)

JASPER TX 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)

KOUNTZE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)

GALVESTON TX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 2(14)

HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 2(16)

AUSTIN TX 34 11 4(15) 2(17) 2(19) 3(22) 3(25) 1(26)
AUSTIN TX 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 18 13(31) 2(33) 2(35) 2(37) 1(38) 1(39)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

FREEPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11)

MATAGORDA TX 34 12 4(16) 4(20) 4(24) 5(29) 2(31) 1(32)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)

PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 8 10(18) 10(28) 4(32) 4(36) 1(37) 1(38)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15)

MCALLEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)

HARLINGEN TX 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

============================================================

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL092017
758 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017

.TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ234>238-245>247-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220>227-231>233-241>244-270800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
658 PM CDT SAT AUG 26 2017

$$

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

southplains_loop (1)

HGX_loop (1)

EWX_loop

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