Harvey 130mph? What?

Even though this storm turned out to be a formidable one.  This system is open-ended with regards to heavy rainfall and perhaps a whole lot more.  Already some event,  namely football have been cancelled and for good reason.

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

…EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN PORT
ARANSAS AND PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS…
…CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE…

 

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.8N 96.8W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…941 MB…27.79 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
complete.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.8
North, longitude 96.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest
near 8 mph (13 km/h), but its forward speed is expected to decrease
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
make landfall on the middle Texas coast during the next several
hours. Harvey is then likely to meander near or just inland of the
middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength
is likely before landfall. Weakening is then expected over the
weekend while the center moves inland over Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 79 mph (128 km/h)
and a wind gust of 101 mph (163 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port Aransas to Port O’Connor…9 to 13 ft
Elsewhere N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to
12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring along the coast in
the Port Aransas area and should spread over other portions of the
hurricane warning area during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the hurricane
and tropical storm warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwestern Louisiana.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

============================================================================

HURRICANE HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD…TEXAS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD…TEXAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF BOCA DE CATAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF SARGENT TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE
INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC…
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY
BE COMPLETE.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT……. 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT……. 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…….120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 96.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W…INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

============================================================================

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

Despite its concentric eyewall structure, Harvey’s winds have
increased during the day. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter planes have measured maximum flight-level winds of 129 kt
and SFMR winds to 102 kt. Based on these data, Harvey’s maximum
surface winds are estimated to be 110 kt. Harvey’s central pressure
has also continued to fall, and the latest estimate based on
dropsonde data is 941 mb.

Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt. Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight. After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours. In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week. This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.

Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength. Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey’s slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast. Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey will make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening
storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas
coast. Tropical-storm-force winds have moved onshore in portions of
the warning areas and conditions will continue to deteriorate as
the eye of Harvey approaches the middle Texas coast tonight.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 27.5N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 28.2N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
24H 26/1800Z 28.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
36H 27/0600Z 28.9N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 28.6N 97.8W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
72H 28/1800Z 28.1N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 30/1800Z 29.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

=====================================================================

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
755 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ237-238-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ234>236-242>247-251-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

TXZ191-193-200-205>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-260800-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
655 PM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

NOW LET ME BE PERFECTLY CLEAR.   THIS IS NO TIME TO BE AN EGGHEAD AND DRINK AND ACT A FOOT.    THIS IS A BAD ASS STORM!!!!

LISTEN TO EMT,  LOCAL RADIO AND TV SOURCES, including WX Channel and scanners.   Stay alive and be smart!

Well,  this is a crazy storm!!  It has deepened like a deep crevice opening, or a Caldera.   It WILL be nasty and it is going to ruin a lot of people’s lives.    This wv-animated (3)

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