Harvey – 85mph Sustained.

I have seen Hurricane Harvey drop from 1007mb down to 979mb.  This deepening is a very big issue as Hurricane Harvey roars northwest.  From the southern most tip of Texas to Louisiana will experience the effects of a powerful (Major Hurricane).

It had stopped and that is never really a good thing.  Stay tuned to your scanners and local Radio and TV weather men and women.  Also consider the commentary as a rule of thumb.  When it does strike land,  and the areas around the circumference will get the worst of the severe weather.  Waterspouts and Tornados and wind damage all around Harvey.

BE CAREFUL —–   Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)

GULFIR172361815

000
WTNT24 KNHC 241804 CCA
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HARVEY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1800 UTC THU AUG 24 2017

CORRECTED FOR EXTENSION OF STORM SURGE WARNING

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEAST OF SAN LUIS
PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PORT MANSFIELD TO MATAGORDA TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* NORTH OF MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE…
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK… PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC… AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS… CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION… FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE… IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IN ADDITION… INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.6W AT 24/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT……. 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT……. 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.6W AT 24/1800Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 93.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT…100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT…GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT…150NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W…INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


WTNT34 KNHC 241805 CCB
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Special Advisory Number 17…CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Corrected for extension of Storm Surge Warning

…HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING…
…PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY…

 

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI…540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI…525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…979 MB…28.91 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northeast of San Luis
Pass to High Island Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.6
West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and
Harvey’s forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the
middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early
Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to
central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches
extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent…6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach…5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore…5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island…2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield…2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City…1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

====================================================================

 

HARVEY WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
157 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2017

.HURRICANE HARVEY

CAUTION…THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST…AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

TXZ235-236-242>247-251-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ238-250200-
/O.UPG.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ234-250200-
/O.EXA.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ237-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ222-224-231>233-241-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ256-257-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ213-214-250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

TXZ193-200-205-207>212-220-221-223-225>227-230-240-250-254-255-
250200-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2017

$$

ATTN…WFO…BRO…CRP…EWX…HGX…

======================================================================

 

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