Yet again, with Harvey

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This is actually fun.  We see Oceanic  and Gulf of Mexico issues.  We have systems engourging each other.  It seems just as one system gains some validity, it falls apart.

The system has some obvious and important problems.   In 2-5 days an increase (80%) of potentiality is based upon assumption.  Assuming the path is going one place or another really matters.  Interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and how much of that crossing hits the Yucatan.   Earlier we have projections being a bit more westward,  thus the WSW component is really a best guess.   The Geometry really is hard to pin down.  Like with many projections you can go from 80%-20% and then disappearing altogether.

Looking again at this remnant of Harvey,   we see another interaction with the Yucatan.  We have a presumption of movement and if this system moves as they forecast this  movement could be problematic.  If it goes more westerly then it would basically scratch Belize as it departs the Yucatan.

If it swings more NW and WNW then where would it go? A more southerly turn would make this storm go to Depression heaven.   If this storm faces enough land mass, then the land will make a weak storm weaker.   If it goes between the Yucatan and Mexico then we have to re-work estimates as it crosses un-impeded in the Gulf of Mexico.

Is the environment more favorable in the Gulf?  And where does it end up?  A strong forward track inhibits a turn.  That is good (for us).  This is indeed the trickier proposition.   You see, Emergency Management has a hat in this rodeo and so does Home Depot and Lowes.  We would see a run on Home Depot and Lowes.

Against most important  is life and limb.  EM has a very tight juxtoposition here.  To man shelters and provide as much leeway as they can.  Hurricane or Tropical Force parties are ignorant. You could get holed up in Hotels without electricity.  After the Beer runs out, then the party just begins.   Don’t do that!   Now this is contingent upon path and strength and so it is vitally important that people listen to local TV and Emergency Management.

These are some of the EM difficulties and their’s is a difficult matter.  Only weather men or gals do this (for the most part) but I suggest that you don’t do that.  Even a stronger Tropical Storm can make a   big difference.  The center is really not the issue as much as the Storm’s periphery.


STAY TUNED TO LOCAL ADVISORIES!  Do drive through flooding and avoid the chance of other kinds of problems.


EM is doing you a favor.  Be mindful of that fact.


800 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission earlier
this afternoon indicated that the remnants of Harvey, located over
the central Caribbean Sea, do not have a well-defined center of
circulation. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity remains disorganized and has decreased in coverage and
intensity since earlier in the day. Gradual development of this
system is still possible through Monday night while it moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the coast of Honduras, and
it could become a tropical cyclone again before it reaches the coast
of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The remnants are
expected to move into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, where
redevelopment appears more likely due to more favorable upper-level
winds. Interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles
north-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing an
elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that
extends southeastward toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern
Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little
more conducive for development later in the week when the system is
near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

3. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Upper-level winds are
not conducive for development of this system while it moves
northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent.

Meteorologist Larry Olson (Mike Scott)atl_00_sfc_analysis

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