Harvey has been a tough nut to crack. First: Storm Center has been inconsistent and thunderstorm patterns erratic. So right now the center is anyone’s guess. These sudden flare-ups of Thunderstorm activity are partly due to convection over-land and sea-breezes.
If anything, circulation is closer to Florida, with an elongated center. The system looks to be just off of Florida. The million dollar question is the actual center, sustained winds and pressure. There is a bit of Thunderstorm activity in a cyclonic pattern off the coast of Florida. Some of that is attributed to Thunderstorm Tops. But this picture is NOT set at this time.
So for now, the next pressure recording and sustained winds are very importsnt. Florida two clusters of thunderstorms. Wait, three, my bad. One is superimposed on another.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 210000- /O.CON.KJAN.HT.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-170821T0000Z/ Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes- Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah- Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg, West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove, Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola, Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Maben, Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs, Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia, West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg 259 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... * TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s with peak afternoon heat index values ranging from 103 to 109 degrees. * IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses may be possible for those outdoors in unshaded areas without proper precautions taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1. A Heat Advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. && $$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 LAZ015-023>026-MSZ026>033-035>039-042>046-048>052-054>066-072>074- 212000- Richland-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Grenada-Carroll- Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys- Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba- Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith- Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence- Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday EXCESSIVE HEAT THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon Heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees will remain possible through early this evening Exposure to these conditions will raise the likelihood of heat related illnesses. (www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Saturday. $$ 50 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *EXCESSIVE HEAT* Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107 degrees. Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees. Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air temperatures greater than 103 degrees. Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.
Red Flag Warning
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pocatello ID 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR EAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410 AND 425... IDZ410-425-210300- /O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170821T0300Z/ Upper Snake River Valley/Idaho Falls BLM- Middle Snake River Valley/Twin Falls BLM north of the Snake River- 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR EAST IDAHO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 410 AND 425... * AFFECTED AREA... Arco Desert Region of fire weather zone 410. Fire weather zone 425. * WIND...Southwest to West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. * HUMIDITY...Minimum 9 to 15 percent. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Do not use fireworks. Engine heat from vehicles can spark wildfires, especially in grasses. Do not park on or drive over grassy areas or throw cigarettes out of cars. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. Fires may experience rapid rates of growth. Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the field of the red flag warning for portions of Southeast Idaho.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 356 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211200- Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL- Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL- Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO- Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO- Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO- Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO- Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO- Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO- Madison MO-Reynolds MO- 356 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly for areas north of Interstate 70, where strong gusty winds and hail to the size of quarter dollars will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday night for areas north of Interstate 70, and again on Tuesday for areas south and east of Saint Louis.