Out to Sea, as always…

ANZ899-170545-  1115 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017      .SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS…Hurricane Gert was located at  37.4N 65.7W at 11 am this morning and was moving northeast  at 22 kt. Gert is forecast to track NE to near 39.0N 61.3W by 8  pm tonight and continue to move rapidly NE overnight and Thu.  Otherwise, a stationary front will extend over the nrn areas of  the offshore waters today.

A weak cold front will move into the N  waters later this afternoon and merge with the stalled front,  then persist over this region tonight through Thu night, then  slowly lift NE and N of the waters as a warm front Fri and Fri  night.

A high pres ridge will build just N of the area Thu and  Thu night, then shift NE of the area Fri and Fri night. A weak  cold front will push SE into the NW portion Sat night, then  continue slowly SE across the N and central waters Sun into Sun  night as another ridge builds in from the NW.      $$


ANZ910-170545-  East of 69W and south of 39N to 250 nm offshore-  1115 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017    TROPICAL STORM WARNING    TODAY  SE portion…E to NE winds 25 to 35 kt early, then  becoming NW 20 to 30 kt. NW portion…E to NE winds 20 to 30 kt  early, then becoming NW 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft…except NW  portion 10 to 18 ft.

TSTMs and scattered showers early.  TONIGHT  N winds diminishing to 10 to 20 kt, becoming N to NW  5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 7 to 12 ft.  THU  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6  ft.  THU NIGHT  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.  FRI  Variable winds less than 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.  

FRI NIGHT  SE winds less than 10 kt, becoming S to SE. Seas  2 to 3 ft.  SAT  S winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to  5 ft.  SAT NIGHT  S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.  SUN  S to SW winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W to SW. Seas 4 to  6 ft.  SUN NIGHT  NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

A series of Tropical Weather systems off the African coast has a 40% chance of development.  Not big numbers,   and but between 3-5 days,  we will know a bit more.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171630-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Limited Excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Afternoon heat indices will top out in the middle to upper 90s,
mainly across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop from
west to east across the outlook area this afternoon. Additional
thunderstorms can then be expected tonight as a cold front moves
southeast through the region.

A few severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
tonight, mainly to the west and north of a Gainesville to Salem
line. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.

Torrential rainfall can also be expected from these storms due to
high moisture content in the atmosphere. Flash flooding will
therefore be possible in areas where multiple storms move over
the same areas. The highest risk for flash flooding will be across
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms will occur through the
upcoming week and into the weekend.

Heat index values will be the 90s each day into the weekend and
as high as 100 by early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and tonight
mainly to the west and north of a Gainesville to Salem line.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

$$

Schaumann



 

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
KSC021-MOC011-097-170000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.W.0072.170816T1703Z-170817T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Cherokee County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Barton County in southwestern Missouri...
  Northwestern Jasper County in southwestern Missouri...

* Until 700 PM CDT Wednesday

* At 1202 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain has
  already fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Creeks, streams, and low water crossings will be especially
  susceptible to the dangers of flash flooding.
  Locations in the warning include...
  Northern Joplin...                Webb City...
  Carl Junction...                  Lamar...
  Baxter Springs...                 Columbus...
  Galena...                         Oronogo...
  Jasper...                         Golden City...
  Airport Drive...                  Weir...
  Lowell...                         Alba...
  Scammon...                        Purcell...
  Nashville...                      Carytown...
  Asbury...                         Neck City...

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...
Highway 7 at Little Cherry Creek north of Columbus...
Route JJ at Center Creek southeast of Carl Junction...
Highway 126 at The Spring River 3 miles north of Jasper...
Route O at The Spring River just south of Alba...
and Route C at Horse Creek east of Milford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9503 3734 9469 3734 9462 3736 9462
      3755 9432 3760 9420 3762 9408 3741 9408
      3732 9416 3712 9454 3706 9462 3700 9462
      3700 9507 3715 9508

$$

Cramer



 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1054 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Into Tonight...

.Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected across
portions of southeastern Kansas and western Missouri into tonight
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts exceeding 5
inches possible. Given the large amount of moisture in the
atmosphere, intense rainfall rates may quickly lead to flash
flooding.

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093-094-171200-
/O.NEW.KSGF.FF.A.0008.170816T1600Z-170817T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Barton-Cedar-
Polk-Dallas-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Newton-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Fort Scott, Pawnee Station, Chicopee,
Lone Oak, Pittsburg, Baxter Springs, Lowell, Riverton, Columbus,
Neutral, Sherwin, Stippville, NEVADA, Tiffin, Appleton City,
Johnson City, Weaubleau, Hermitage, Quincy, Wheatland,
Cross Timbers, Kenoma, Lamar, Cedar Springs, El Dorado Springs,
Filley, Arnica, Caplinger Mills, Stockton, Bolivar, Buffalo,
Charity, Foose, March, Plad, Windyville, Olive, Joplin, Carthage,
Greenfield, Lockwood, Meinert, Springfield, Marshfield,
Northview, Seymour, Rogersville, Neosho, Aurora, Mount Vernon,
and Marionville
1054 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Kansas and
  Missouri, including the following areas, in southeast Kansas,
  Bourbon, Cherokee, and Crawford. In Missouri, Barton, Cedar,
  Dade, Dallas, Greene, Hickory, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton, Polk,
  St. Clair, Vernon, and Webster.

* Through Thursday morning

* Multiple rounds of torrential rainfall are expected through
  tonight. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with
  localized amounts over 5 inches possible. The rain will fall at
  a very rapid rate and may quickly lead to flash flooding.

* Areas that receive multiple rounds of thunderstorms will see an
  increased risk for flash flooding. Rapid rises along area creeks
  and streams can be expected, along with the potential flooding
  of low water crossings. Motorists and campers should be
  especially alert for flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1009 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

NCZ099-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-171415-
Columbus-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-
Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
1009 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heat index values of 100-104 this afternoon and 102-107 Friday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$




Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

NCZ099-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-162100-
/O.NEW.KILM.HT.Y.0005.170816T1700Z-170816T2100Z/
Columbus-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-
Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Horry-Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-
Coastal Georgetown-
Including the cities of Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn,
Lake Waccamaw, Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte,
Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville, Darlington, North Hartsville,
Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins, Kingstree, Conway, Red Hill,
Myrtle Beach, Socastee, North Myrtle Beach, Garden City,
Little River, Andrews, Georgetown, and Murrells Inlet
1007 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a Heat
Advisory, which is in effect until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* Heat Index Values...Up to 106 due to temperatures in the lower
  90s, and dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s.

* Timing...Early this afternoon into early evening.

* Impacts...High heat and humidity will increase the risk fo


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s