Well, that was easy and will remain so. From Tropical Storm to Hurricane and back to a Tropical Storm. Are we clear now? It was pretty easy as far as a prediction is concerned. As Franklin move towards the Yucatan
Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017
Visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized
tropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of
the convective cloud tops. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core,
which is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the
visible imagery. The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a
blend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along
with sampling considerations. Franklin has a well-defined,
symmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is
still expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near
hurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against
rapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur
due to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening
over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast.
Although northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat,
Franklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making
landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast.
Based on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary
and microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or
310/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically
unchanged. A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a
west-northwestward to westward course for the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH…OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
As mentioned above there are considerations as upper warming and some sheering. The possibility of a strong Hurricane is not likely. Tropical Storm Franklin will hastily dissipate because of it’s interaction with the Yucatan and then mostly a marginal Hurricane. For the people in Mexico be advised that any Hurricane can be very dangerous no matter the strength and that is even true for Tropical Storms.
Nearing the Mexican Coastline, the big issue will be winds, flooding and potential for a few tornadoes in the Southeatern Quadrant of the storm and a few waterspouts. (Tornadoes over water). Frequent Lighting and power outages will be widespread.,
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072017
2100 UTC MON AUG 07 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CAMPECHE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CAMPECHE TO SABANCUY
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA… IN THIS CASE WITHIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT……. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…….120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 85.3W
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W…INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W…INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W…INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z…DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 85.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
Franklin is not the only story, even as these storms over portions of Alabama this evening. The weather over Alabama are not related to the Tropical Weather.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Huntsville AL 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-081100- Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan- Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN- 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 7 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Tonight... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue into the evening and overnight hours, as a weak frontal boundary shifts south through the area. A few of these storms could become strong and produce gusty winds. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is possible which may lead to instances of flash flooding in low lying and urban areas, especially south of the Tennessee River. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday... A stalled frontal boundary just south of the area will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast most of the upcoming week. A better chance of showers and thunderstorms develops again toward the end of the week and into the weekend as this boundary moves north over the area. Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible during this timeframe, possibly producing some flash flooding. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is not anticipated at this time. $$
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Huntsville AL 750 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017 ALC103-080230- /O.CON.KHUN.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170808T0230Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Morgan AL- 750 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2017 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY... At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated that earlier thunderstorms produced heavy rain over the warned area. Two to three inches of rain have already fallen, with additional light rain expected to continue over the next two hours. Flash flooding may be occurring along low-lying spots and near streams and creeks. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Decatur, Hartselle, Priceville, Trinity, Somerville and Basham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately. Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate precautions to protect life and property.