Two Tropical Storms.

Eyes are to the East tonight as forecasters try to make sense of two storms.   Of course it is going to take a few days to ascertain that.   I have witnessed countless times, where forecasters use models and those models being useless.

two_atl_2d0 (13)

    Many times it is a blend of numbers.  If even one value is wrong, so can the whole forecast.   That is assuming that models are any true indice of coherence.   My experience is, that a more pragmatic approach is necessary.  I have seen rain chances of 80%,   being way off.  EIGHT DAYS OFF(only Virga).   Essentially rain that does not make it to the surface.

During the Winter Nationals at East Bay Raceway,  weather during these races are a make or break proposition.  Hundreds of thousands of dollars are at stake.  Even bankruptcy.  Track owners know I have their best interest at heart.  I do!  So I do not necessarily trust models.  We weigh a model’s reliability as time goes on.

In one instance,  Tampa forecasters blew it.  In the fourth of four storms they progged a lot of rain affecting the West Coast of Florida.   I challenged the status quo and we were the only track that raced that evening.   The announcers said that I am much more reliable that the TV and  radio Meteorologists.  Their assessment was and is correct.

The basics are considered first and observation is the very basic component.  In a forecast at Ramstein forecast units were forecasting.  I challenged them on the rain,  postulating that at all basic levels RH was only 5-15%.  How can you have rain without clouds.   Then as forecasts were for rain,  I saw an evolving and fluid situation.    The Benelux had a massive area of severe thunderstorms.

Paris was the key.  From there was a noticeable windshift and that was the catalyst for those storms.  88 MPH winds.  I simply used extrapolation and that was it.  A four-star general said that was the best logic that he had seen, in a very long time.

 During the 410 Sprint Car races, a LEWP (line echo wave pattern) begun to happen and the sponsor said my forecast was critical.  A tornado happened.  That is important, needless to say.  Sure I am wrong at times, but my forecasts are the Gold Standard.  My bro-in-law is a Late Model driver.   

lewp

LEWP11LEWP211apr20_bowecho1_rdr_KILX_01z_from grenci_hires_LABELS_crop

You really have to consider ALL options.  It really matters!!!

Meteorologist Larry Olson

(Mike Scott)

 

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