Eyes are to the East tonight as forecasters try to make sense of two storms. Of course it is going to take a few days to ascertain that. I have witnessed countless times, where forecasters use models and those models being useless.
Many times it is a blend of numbers. If even one value is wrong, so can the whole forecast. That is assuming that models are any true indice of coherence. My experience is, that a more pragmatic approach is necessary. I have seen rain chances of 80%, being way off. EIGHT DAYS OFF(only Virga). Essentially rain that does not make it to the surface.
During the Winter Nationals at East Bay Raceway, weather during these races are a make or break proposition. Hundreds of thousands of dollars are at stake. Even bankruptcy. Track owners know I have their best interest at heart. I do! So I do not necessarily trust models. We weigh a model’s reliability as time goes on.
In one instance, Tampa forecasters blew it. In the fourth of four storms they progged a lot of rain affecting the West Coast of Florida. I challenged the status quo and we were the only track that raced that evening. The announcers said that I am much more reliable that the TV and radio Meteorologists. Their assessment was and is correct.
The basics are considered first and observation is the very basic component. In a forecast at Ramstein forecast units were forecasting. I challenged them on the rain, postulating that at all basic levels RH was only 5-15%. How can you have rain without clouds. Then as forecasts were for rain, I saw an evolving and fluid situation. The Benelux had a massive area of severe thunderstorms.
Paris was the key. From there was a noticeable windshift and that was the catalyst for those storms. 88 MPH winds. I simply used extrapolation and that was it. A four-star general said that was the best logic that he had seen, in a very long time.
During the 410 Sprint Car races, a LEWP (line echo wave pattern) begun to happen and the sponsor said my forecast was critical. A tornado happened. That is important, needless to say. Sure I am wrong at times, but my forecasts are the Gold Standard. My bro-in-law is a Late Model driver.
You really have to consider ALL options. It really matters!!!
Meteorologist Larry Olson