More onEmily! TS once again.

little

Look at that train.  It looks like the Little Engine that could,  finally got over.    But too late.  A closer call with more time to sensationalize is a bit better,  but for the gainsaying Media-hypes,  they meant it all along.   And so goes Tropical Emily.   Earlier there were signs of a pretty well-defined system.  However during the last hour or three,  the west side is showing a bit of lag and losing it’s well-defined concentric circle.

The next chapter will be the heavy rains and tides that will be the biggest problem as Tropical Storm Emily tracks to to the East and Northeast.  Eventually this storm will fade and then become extra-tropical.

Portions of Florida have had a lot of rain,  wind and isolated severe weather.  The SE Quadrant typically experiences the tornados and most severe Weather.   Some shearing is being experienced as the storm is over land is hampering storm intensification.  That won’t last and as the night wears on,  re-intensification.

More on this through the evening and overnight.

gain

No gainsayer here, but will leave the night on.   Motel 6 should–  Just saying.

ir4-animated (1)

000
WTNT21 KNHC 010242
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062017
0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 81.0W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 81.0W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 81.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.7N 79.2W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.1N 74.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.7N 71.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.6N 65.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.5N 58.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z…DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 81.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

 

Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Mesonet observations from the area north and northwest of Lake
Okeechobee indicate that Emily has an elongated surface
circulation. Although some deep convection has redeveloped near
and to the east of the center, Doppler velocity data from the Tampa
and Melbourne WSR-88D radars only show winds of 30-35 kt at an
elevation of about 5000 ft. Therefore, Emily’s maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated to be 25 kt, primarily within the
thunderstorm activity east and southeast of the center.

Emily’s center, as seen on radar, has been moving east-southeastward
for much of the evening. However, it seems to have recently turned
eastward, and the initial motion estimate is 095/8 kt. Emily is
embedded within the base of a mid-level trough that lies off the
southeastern coast of the United States, and the subtropical ridge
to the east should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward soon,
move off the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday, and then
accelerate over the western Atlantic during the next several days.
Although all of the track models agree on this scenario, the GFS is
a notable outlier compared to the other models, showing a slower
solution that leans more to the left. Because the other models are
so tightly clustered, the updated NHC track forecast leans closer
to them and is a little bit faster than the previous forecast.

There is low confidence in how strong Emily will get, or what
exactly it will be, during the next few days. The global models
keep Emily embedded within or near a weak frontal zone while it
moves across the western Atlantic, suggesting that the cyclone’s
center may not move continuously but rather jump and reform from
time to time along the boundary. These models also do not show
Emily restrengthening much, even over the warm ocean, and
phase-space diagrams suggest that the cyclone may become more cold
core during the next few days. On the other hand, the more tropical
models, like SHIPS and HWRF, show a little bit more
re-intensification. Given that vertical shear is forecast to
increase, and that Emily likely isn’t purely tropical to begin
with, the new NHC intensity forecast sides with the global models
just a little bit more than SHIPS and HWRF. Based on this, Emily
is forecast to intensify just a bit and become extratropical in
about 48 hours. The extratropical low is expected to dissipate by
day 5.

The primary threat with Emily continues to be locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida
Keys overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 27.5N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND OVER FLORIDA
12H 01/1200Z 28.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…OVER WATER
24H 02/0000Z 30.4N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 32.1N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 33.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z 36.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z 38.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/0000Z…DISSIPATED

 

 

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