Really Emily has been nothing more than a Low. Even now it sits off the Coast of Florida, with Mininum Central Pressure of 1010mb. The norm is 1013.2. The other thing, is it did what was expected in terms of relative movement. The issue now is more a rain event and most likely closer to the Outer Banks and then beating a hasty retreat NE. You can see on satellite where it is being absorbed along the Cold Frontal Boundary. The next system should be weaker. I think that the NHC is being hopeful with their storm forecasts. (Quite naturally).
The X off the coast of Africa shows some wave effect. That should be entrained into the frontal boundary and remnants of Emily. It gets a bit active this year and the system off the coast of Florida is pretty standard stuff. Being inland the systems have these tiny impulses. If they get a warm water(hot-spots) regime, adiabatic processes are enhanced. But there are too many things that can happen between Cape Verde and the shores of the U.S.
Excessive Heat Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Portland OR 218 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 ...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... ORZ003>008-010>016-WAZ019-020-022-039-040-045-046-022230- /O.CON.KPQR.EH.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170805T0600Z/ Coast Range of Northwest Oregon- Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Lower Columbia- Greater Portland Metro Area-Central Willamette Valley- South Willamette Valley-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills- Northern Oregon Cascades-Cascade Foothills in Lane County- Cascades in Lane County-Upper Hood River Valley- Western Columbia River Gorge-Central Columbia River Gorge- South Washington Cascades-Willapa Hills-I- 5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area- South Washington Cascade Foothills- Including the cities of Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit, Lees Camp, Trask, Grande Ronde, Burnt Woods, Tidewater, Swisshome, Veneta, St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon, Sandy, Estacada, Silver Falls State Park, Sweet Home, Government Camp, Detroit, Santiam Pass, Vida, Jasper, Lowell, Cottage Grove, McKenzie Pass, McKenzie Bridge, Oakridge, Willamette Pass, Parkdale, Odell, Corbett, Rooster Rock, Multnomah Falls, Cascade Locks, Hood River, Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center, Mount St. Helens, Wind River Valley, Willapa, Frances, Ryderwood, Longview, Kelso, Castle Rock, Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, Amboy, Toutle, Ariel, Lake Merwin, Yale Lake, Cougar, North Bonneville, Stevenson, Carson, and Underwood 218 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY... * TEMPERATURES...Record high temperatures are expected inland. Temperatures will climb to around 100 this afternoon, heating up to 104 to 108 on Wednesday and Thursday. The heat will continue into Friday, with temperatures near 100 likely. Low temperatures are expected to remain warm, dropping only into the mid 60s to lower 70s in the valleys. In the foothills and lower Cascades, overnight temperatures will remain very warm at night with lows only in the mid 70s to low 80s. * TIMING...Today through the end of the week. Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days, with record setting high temperatures and poor overnight recovery. Friday could also be another record setting day. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through early next week. * IMPACTS...The elderly, people without access to air conditioning, and anyone engaged in prolonged outdoor activities will be be particularly vulnerable during this heat episode. Local power demand is expected to be at high levels. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... An Excessive Heat Warning means that a prolonged period of dangerously hot temperatures will occur. Hot temperatures will create a dangerous situation in which heat related illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions, if you work or spend time outside. When possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency, call 9 1 1. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances, even for short periods of time. This is especially true during warm or hot weather when car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes. && $$
Red Flag Warning
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Portland OR 233 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 ...Multiple Fire Weather Hazards Across Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington this Week... .Very hot temperatures with low humidity will affect the region this week. There are a couple different impacts regarding fire weather bringing potential for rapid fire spread. A thermal trough has set up west of the Cascades and will drift from over the Willamette Valley at night to over the Cascades during the day. This will bring breezy winds to the Willamette Valley today along with humidity below 25%. This thermal trough will also bring very unstable low level conditions to the area through at least Thursday, increasing the likelihood of plume dominated fire activity mainly during the afternoons and evenings. ORZ604-020600- /O.CON.KPQR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170804T0600Z/ Willamette Valley- 233 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PLUS FOR SIGNIFICANTLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 604... * Winds...North winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph primarily across the southern two thirds of Fire Weather Zone 604 in the Willamette Valley. Dry and locally breezy conditions elsewhere. * Instability...Mid-level Haines 6 and High-level Haines 5 or 6 conditions will produce an unstable atmosphere conducive for rapid fire growth for all of Fire Weather Zone 604. * Humidity...as low as 10-20%. * Timing...Tuesday afternoon and evening. * Affected Area...In Oregon...Fire Weather Zone 604 Willamette Valley. * Impacts...FOR WIND/RH: Conditions may be favorable for rapid fire spread which may threaten life and property. Use extra caution with potential ignition sources, especially in grassy areas. FOR INSTABILITY: Conditions may be favorable for rapid spread on any new and existing fires. Extreme fire behavior is possible. Outdoor burning is not recommended. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Meteorologist Mike Scott (Larry Olson)
Official Meteorologist of the World Outlaws,
World Racing Group
East Bay Raceway, Tampa
I-30 Speedway, Little Rock, AR.