Emily already

The movement of TD Emily will be influenced by a Southeast moving Cold Front.  And that is the biggest question, where and when?  Emily will follow the front and any slowing will slow down Emily.

The moving parts are a bit complex.    The cold front will pass over the next few hours and then Emily.   But anything slowing the front will complicate the picture.  The 500mb Hgt Falls are not dramatic but after some digging southward the biggest falls are along the Eastern Coast and it would follow those Hgt Falls.

It can only go so far Westward before invariably turning N/E.   There will be some strengthening in the Atlantic but after a while it will becoming a Tropical Depression once again.

500_170731_12300_170731_00

ANZ899-010830-  512 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017      .SYNOPSIS FOR MID ATLC WATERS…A stationary front extending NE  to SW across the outer central and S waters will persist and  weaken tonight into Tue while several weak lows track NE along  the front. High pres will build in from the NW tonight, move  offshore into the N waters Tue and Tue night, then pass E of the  area Wed into Fri while maintaining a weakening ridge back across  the N waters. A cold front will approach from the NW Fri and Fri  night, then push SE into the N and central waters late Sat into  Sat night. Tropical Depression Emily now over Florida will approach  from the S tonight and Tue while strengthening into a tropical  storm. The tropical storm will move NE to near 31.4N 76.3W by 2  am Wed, to near 33.0N 74.0W by 2 pm Wed, to near 35.6N 68.7W by 2  pm Thu, then pass E of the waters later Thu into Fri. See the  latest National Hurricane Center advisory for Emily.    $$

Cape Fear to 31N to 1000 fm-  512 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017    TROPICAL STORM WARNING    TONIGHT  NE winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered  showers and TSTMs. TUE  NE winds 10 to 20 kt, except far SE portion becoming E to  NE 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.  TUE NIGHT  N to NE winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt, except E  portion 30 to 40 kt early. Winds then becoming E to NE 20 to 30  kt late. Seas building to 5 to 9 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.  WED  N to NE winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to  3 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and TSTMs.  WED NIGHT  Winds becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas  subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.  THU  Variable winds less than 10 kt, becoming S. Seas 2 to  3 ft.  THU NIGHT  S to SW winds less than 10 kt, becoming SW. Seas  2 to 3 ft.  FRI  SW winds 5 to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Seas  building to 3 to 5 ft.  FRI NIGHT  SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.  SAT  W to SW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.  SAT NIGHT  SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

download

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
516 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

NMZ501>540-011100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
516 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall is possible nearly anywhere today, but the greatest
concern exists over east central and southeast New Mexico where
widespread heavy rain may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Localized areas of heavy rainfall remain possible on Tuesday, mainly
across western New Mexico. Flash flooding will be possible. Drier
conditions are expected for Wednesday, but a back door front on
Thursday will be a trigger for another round of widespread heavy
rains across eastern New Mexico.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

$$

34


 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

NMZ538-010015-
Chaves County Plains-
544 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

At 544 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Elkins, or 25 miles northeast of Roswell, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime sized hail will be possible with
this storm.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Chaves
County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 10414 3356 10426 3366 10436 3376 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 137DEG 10KT 3366 10425

$$

50


 

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
321 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

NMZ521>526-533>540-010400-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170801T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-
South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Guadalupe County-Quay County-Curry County-
Roosevelt County-De Baca County-Chaves County Plains-
Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
321 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of north and central New Mexico, including the
  following areas: Central Highlands, Chaves County Plains, Curry
  County, De Baca County, Eastern Lincoln County, Estancia Valley,
  Guadalupe County, Quay County, Roosevelt County, Sandia/Manzano
  Mountains, South Central Highlands, South Central Mountains,
  Southwest Chaves County and Upper Tularosa Valley.

* through late tonight

* Abundant moisture and instability will lead to numerous slow-
  moving thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening
  across east central and southeast New Mexico. Thunderstorms may
  repeatedly impact the same area, leading to prolonged heavy rain.
  Some areas received heavy rain on Sunday, and saturated soils in
  these area will lead to increased runoff. Some of the heaviest
  rains may occur during the late afternoon and evening hours.

* Heavy downpours will lead to ponding of water in low lying areas
  and abrupt and excessive water runoff near steeper terrain.
  Normally dry creeks, arroyos, low water crossings, and river beds
  could turn to raging torrents during flash flooding episodes.
  Road closures will be possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash
Flood Warnings be issued.

10286_b1

Special Marine Warning

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ610-010045-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0211.170731T2339Z-170801T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 737 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  WATERSPOUTS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAND CUT
  TO NEAR LIBERTY POINT...MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS.

  HAZARD...WATERSPOUTS AND WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...WATERSPOUTS CAN QUICKLY FORM AND CAPSIZE BOATS...DAMAGE
           VESSELS AND CREATE SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES. MAKE SURE ALL
           ON BOARD ARE IN A SECURE LOCATION AND WEARING LIFE
           JACKETS.  EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34
           KNOTS...SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
           HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MAKE SURE ALL ON BOARD ARE WEARING LIFE
           JACKETS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LIBERTY POINT...CANAL POINT...CLEWISTON...SAND CUT...PAHOKEE...
  BUCKHEAD RIDGE...LAKE HARBOR...CALUSA AND MOORE HAVEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
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