The art of Forecasting is a sort existential nihilism, in the minds of stage scientists. They can’t expound on the tropics, because many don’t know where the tropics are. And even if they do, it is a dog and pony show.
Secretly they pine for the drama. Standing in the middle of a windy, flooding town, they declare what some weather computer model might suggest. With over 70 different nodes of information, it is like finding needle in a haystack.
The strength and movement of a storm is so important because FEMA needs to be on the alert and Home Depot is readying for the onset of bad weather.
Catastrophic events that will last a lifetime. The tears of families and the heartbreak of where they can go now. But let’s forget about stagecraft. Right now there is circulation over and near Ft Myers and up to Tampa. The circulation means nothing by itself. And should this system gather steam and move into the Gulf of Mexico, then that might be that big story. Like Clark Kent and Lois Lane, the first to take notice gets the big lead.
At this time, there is not much to take note of. Careful scrutiny and the imagination that is required in forecasting. Not some Bill Nye the Science Guy, opining on what he thinks can add. Anyhow, keep abreast of what comes next…
The land is a very hard environment for storms to begin not alone becoming a Hurricane. We’ll see…
Floyd, Times Are Changin 