Weather on the Tense

Today’s forecast is trending to cooler and drier with some of that cool air not going to make it to North Carolina.   We will watch for the development of Lows and how they may generate moisture necessary for precipitation and rain.


…FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH 9 AM…

.WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 9 AM.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-261300-
/O.CON.KRAH.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-131026T1300Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROXBORO…OXFORD…HENDERSON…
WARRENTON…ROANOKE RAPIDS…WINSTON-SALEM…GREENSBORO…
HIGH POINT…BURLINGTON…CHAPEL HILL…DURHAM…LOUISBURG…
NASHVILLE…ROCKY MOUNT…LEXINGTON…ASHEBORO…PITTSBORO…
RALEIGH…SMITHFIELD…WILSON…ALBEMARLE…TROY…
SOUTHERN PINES…SANFORD…LILLINGTON…GOLDSBORO…WADESBORO…
ROCKINGHAM…LAURINBURG…RAEFORD…FAYETTEVILLE…CLINTON
336 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013

…FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING…

* LOCATION…ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES…IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* TIMING…TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 9 AM.

* IMPACTS…TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL SEVERELY
DAMAGE OR KILL TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

After the freeze there is expected to be some warming and perhaps reaching close to 70.  A few days ago they were being more hopeful that we would see like 73-75 and like I said,  it doesn’t seem likely.

National Weather Outlook

 

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We knew how to party.

To the far left was the Rowan Brothers on their hit variety show that featured a youthful,  sexy Goldie Hawn.   The SAYS!!!

Finally this guy had a Uke,  and liked to Tip Toe Through The Tulips.      But time can be a cruel master and Richard Dawson could attest to that!    The show  was a smaltzy Hippie Twostep with an All-star cast.    It was the antithesis of Hee Haw which was popular with the W-S-M crowd in Nashville.    (The Grand Ole Opry Home)

This show had it’s controversial and sometimes players.    The Hero of this show was always pranking the Gerries with his clever manipulations.  Hogan had to keep Colonel Klink  (Werner Klemperer) busy while the troops snuck out POWs that were high profile.    The whole premise was to keep the German Klink as commander of the Stalag while at the same time making to look like a hero in the eyes of the troops.

Sgt Schultz was the harmless and lovable BWM who was always saying he didn’t see nothing!!   Kind of like a 300 lb Teenager  who was tricked (most of the time) by the likeable Colonel Hogan.    Colonel Klink in real life was a bigger than life impresario.  He was quite famous and not at all the goofy commander depicted here.

Stranger still is the fact that Colonel Hogan (Bob Crane) was murdered and was involved in the porn industry. Apparently he was not liked the Sopranos type crowd.    I guess you could call him an impresario of another kind.

I know this generation has Justin Bieber and Hannah where’s my clothes Cyrus,   but we had gangstas shown below.

You may have had That 70’s show but were living it and that was like ‘way groovy’.   I am wondering if they were not into organized crime and you would know why if you watched the show.      This was like the Dirty Dozen for the Kindergarten Crowd.    I could imagine them today on Lifetime’s Locked Up.   Eventually Bunny married Mr Moose (don’t ask) while Dancing Bear was put on Ritalin and STP.

Above were some of the games we played and people died when we did.   Good thing we had those old Army Shovels.   Our ladies kept it on the DL because life was hard when the weather went all Wizard of Oz and while you had Kelly Bundy,  we had Valerie ‘Freakin Bertinelli and the trollop Marie Osmond.   When I reached puberty is when I could tell who was Donnie and who was Marie.   Got it now!!!

While you have NCIS,  Criminal Minds and the Mentalist,  we had Charlies Angels,  Kojak,  Mr T and Barnaby (uncle jed) Jones….

 

 

 

Motel 6 – Tom and his guests

  You’ve probably heard the commercial where Tom Beaudette tells us how he would leave the light on.    A comforting appeal when you are tired but the reality can be far different.and me a girlfriend had one of ‘those days’.     Ultimately we settled on a Motel 6 near Greensboro. Not only were the rooms but the must have been from the 70s.

And there were no cable channels let alone HBO or Showtime.   The remote control did not work and the channels they did,  rolled and came in and out.  They probably had digital channels to save money. You get what you pay for. http://www.youtube.com/watch?=GSiv8hr5HYw

The staff was nothing special either.   There were no beverages like coffee and the room had worn carpets with no toiletry or towels,  we had to go ask. The bottom line is probably most Motels are not this bad but this one,   the light was missing!!

That’s my rating.

 

 

Weather – The final frontier

Thursday – October 24th,  2013,   1300 L

I love to let you all in some fascinating but very basic foundations of weather science.   Our atmosphere has many constituent levels.   And their complexity is the weather of tomorrow and even the term ‘weather’  can mean any condition including clear skies.    In Meteorology it is rain,  snow,  etc.      As well,   it like Catholic v. catholic. 

It is like the same license plate on many cars.   Well today’s weather is but another very distinct day even if the skies are the same as yesterday.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fbw.gif

The most obvious aspect to this chart is the High Pressure over the Western Half of the United States.   The winds at the surface are pushing cold Canadian air into the heart of the country.  

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94qwbg.gif

The above precipitation chart is valid from  Thursday 7am – Friday 7am  

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98qwbg.gif

Above Friday 7am – Saturday 7am

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99qwbg.gif

Saturday 7am – Sunday 7am

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9jh.gif

Saturday’s Surface Map with a very intense Low in the Upper Mississippi Valley and High Pressure over the Carolinas and into Virginia.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif

Sunday Morning 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif

Monday Morning October 28th, 2013  

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

Tuesday,  October 29th,   2013

Storms that approach from the Left Coast,   California-like.   So just how much moisture and what kind of temperatures remain to be seen.  It seems like the cold airmass has been modified and not getting quite as much cold air advection.

SPC Products Overview

Weather Guessing by Numbers

Weather Update –  Wednesday October 23, 2013  2200 L  

Latest daily precip map

The past few days has seen some rain over parts of the state with Greensboro to Raleigh,  North Carolina.    Changes ar coming but mostly cooler to cold as the first freeze of the season comes to the greater Greensboro.

That leads into the football weekend and here in Carolina it will be all good.   But just to make the haters happy and I am one of them,   I  put in a slight chance of showers just to keep with the Einsteins.

Latest daily minimum temperature map

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...PATCHY FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-240900-
/O.CON.KRAH.FR.Y.0004.131024T0900Z-131024T1300Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...
BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...
ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
335 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
  PIEDMONT... MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 33 TO 37 DEGREES TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK OF FROST WILL BE IN
  THE RURAL OUTLYING AREAS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THOSE
  WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT TENDER
  VEGETATION. ALSO...SENSITIVE POTTED PLANTS THAT ARE NORMALLY
  LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE
  COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

SPC Products Overview


VALID 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NCNTRL STATES AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN STATES. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN OCCUR IN THE MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY/DAY 7...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BUT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ATTM...WILL NOT ADD AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT TO THE OUTLOOK. ..BROYLES.. 10/23/2013
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
This is the product of the Rawinsonde (Weather Balloon). It's main
purpose is to determine the atmospheres stability, winds, moisture
and temperature profiles.

Weather Holding Pattern

Long range forecasts for Wednesday of next week call for afternoon highs near 75.  The question is,  are temperatures that far out even to be taken seriously.  I am going to look at that even closer this evening and try to get a sense of where everything will be situated.   Wind direction,  cloud and Jet Stream along with thickness patterns.

It felt a bit nippy out here today in Central North Carolina.   This morning we experienced some light rain and drizzle.   As well the clouds have thinned out and went from 7/10s to about 2/10 this afternoon.    This trend will continue tonight and tomorrow.

https://i0.wp.com/forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

This evening is going to be more of a temperature forecast.  Generally the lowest temperature after a cold front is like 24-48hrs after passage.    And fronts depending on how strong and stacked will vary due to the density of that airmass.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/300_131023_12.gif

The Jetstreams are generally noted as any wind in excess of 50 knots.   Temperatures like frontal boundaries are pushed along by these Jets.   The flags are each equal to 50k,  so two would be 100,  three 150.    The single lines are 10 for a full barb and 5 for a 1/2.

Wind Speed & Direction

Wind speed. A combination of long/short barbs and pennants indicate the speed of the wind in station weather plots rounded to the nearest 5 knots. Calm wind is indicated by a large circle drawn around the skycover symbol.

One long barb is used to indicate each 10 knots with the short barb representing 5 knots. At 50 knots, the barbs changes to a pennant. For wind speeds higher than 50 knots, long and short barbs are used again in combination with the pennant(s). (See examples below.)

Observed
wind
speed
0-2 kts
(0-2 mph)
3-7 kts
(3-8 mph)
8-12 kts
(9-14 mph)
13-17 kts
(15-20 mph)
18-22 kts
(21-25 mph)
23-27 kts
(26-31 mph)
28-32 kts
(32-37 mph)
33-37 kts
(38-43 mph)
48-52 kts
(55-60 mph)
53-57 kts
(61-66 mph)
58-62 kts
(67-71 mph)
63-67 kts
(73-77 mph)
98-102 kts
(113-117 mph)
102-107 kts
(119-123 mph)
Rounded
to the
nearest 5
0 kts 5 kts 10 kts 15 kts 20 kts 25 kts 30 kts 35 kts 50 kts 55 kts 60 kts 65 kts 100 kts 105 kts
Plotted as 0 knot wind plot 5 knot wind plot 10 knot wind plot 15 knot wind plot 20 knot wind plot 25 knots wind plot 30 knots wind plot 35 knots wind plot 50 knots wind plot 55 knots wind plot 60 knots wind plot 65 knots wind plot 100 knots wind plot 105 knots wind plot

 

Wind FROM 340°
(NNW)
Wind FROM 040°
(NE)
Wind FROM 190°
(S)

The wind direction is indicated by the long shaft. The shaft will point to the direction FROM which the wind is blowing. The direction is based upon a 36-point compass.


These parameters are defined internationally and gives the user a simple way of interpreting the symbols (synoptics).      The National Weather Service (NWS) has it’s own weather school which break down what these weather codes infer.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/synoptic/sfc_plot_symbols.htm

High and low pressure indicated by isobars The diagram to the left shows winds circulating around the Low southward and the High to the left does the same thing.    This kind of circulation will bring colder weather.

SPC Products Overview

Wednesday Morning Weather – October 23rd, 2013 0325L Eastern

Still numbed by the loss of my fellow weather forecaster and best friend,  here goes.

Latest daily minimum temperature map

The temperatures are a great place to start and seeing as there is not a lot of specificity to the actual synoptic (weather pattern) we can pretty safely say that colder weather is coming.

Additionally it is hard to get a real bead on just how cold as cold decks,  some winds and other wild cards are yet be discovered.   Temperatures are in the zone where any real Cyclogenesis (Low pressure forming) could through everything out the window and those low precipitation chances could change rapidly.  

With that said and in particular the Eastern part of the US and North Carolina in particular will see temperatures actually bottoming out near freezing and this is all dependent on just how cold it gets.   One forecast near the weekend have lows around 27 in the Greensboro to Raleigh areas.   More on that later.

Satellite weather is rather conclusive  as weak high pressure and a series of disturbances and colder air move through the region.   

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

Areas of green and especially the weather across South Florida and the Florida Keys will see some rain/rainshowers.   You will notice that the rain is somewhat limited but remainder this can change in a few hours.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

Valid above Thursday to Friday 7am respectively.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

Above which is from Friday to Saturday at 7am  is a low off the coast of North Carolina but it appears it is too far eastward but you can see how these things can change.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Above is the two day composite and you can an increase in potential precipitation with the Low over South Florida elongated but not moving much.  That forecast valid from the the 26th to the 28th.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Of note here on the forecast precipitation from the 28th thru the 30th a fairly vigorous Low is moving eastward across the country.   That WILL be a major weather producer.  If thickness values (amount of cold air above) is enough then snow is a definite outcome.

This weather will also arrive somewhere between Wednesday and Thursday of next week for the Carolinas.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...VALID 06Z WED OCT 23 2013 - 12Z THU OCT 24 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
Day 1 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.Day 2 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.Day 3 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.

Forecast for the next three days as far as it pertains to rain and snow with the blue
areas being snow. Will keep you posted through the week.