Weather – The final frontier

Thursday – October 24th,  2013,   1300 L

I love to let you all in some fascinating but very basic foundations of weather science.   Our atmosphere has many constituent levels.   And their complexity is the weather of tomorrow and even the term ‘weather’  can mean any condition including clear skies.    In Meteorology it is rain,  snow,  etc.      As well,   it like Catholic v. catholic. 

It is like the same license plate on many cars.   Well today’s weather is but another very distinct day even if the skies are the same as yesterday.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fbw.gif

The most obvious aspect to this chart is the High Pressure over the Western Half of the United States.   The winds at the surface are pushing cold Canadian air into the heart of the country.  

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94qwbg.gif

The above precipitation chart is valid from  Thursday 7am – Friday 7am  

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98qwbg.gif

Above Friday 7am – Saturday 7am

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99qwbg.gif

Saturday 7am – Sunday 7am

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9jh.gif

Saturday’s Surface Map with a very intense Low in the Upper Mississippi Valley and High Pressure over the Carolinas and into Virginia.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9kh.gif

Sunday Morning 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif

Monday Morning October 28th, 2013  

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif

Tuesday,  October 29th,   2013

Storms that approach from the Left Coast,   California-like.   So just how much moisture and what kind of temperatures remain to be seen.  It seems like the cold airmass has been modified and not getting quite as much cold air advection.

SPC Products Overview

Weather Guessing by Numbers

Weather Update –  Wednesday October 23, 2013  2200 L  

Latest daily precip map

The past few days has seen some rain over parts of the state with Greensboro to Raleigh,  North Carolina.    Changes ar coming but mostly cooler to cold as the first freeze of the season comes to the greater Greensboro.

That leads into the football weekend and here in Carolina it will be all good.   But just to make the haters happy and I am one of them,   I  put in a slight chance of showers just to keep with the Einsteins.

Latest daily minimum temperature map

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...PATCHY FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-240900-
/O.CON.KRAH.FR.Y.0004.131024T0900Z-131024T1300Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...
BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...
ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
335 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
  PIEDMONT... MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 33 TO 37 DEGREES TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK OF FROST WILL BE IN
  THE RURAL OUTLYING AREAS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THOSE
  WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT TENDER
  VEGETATION. ALSO...SENSITIVE POTTED PLANTS THAT ARE NORMALLY
  LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE
  COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

SPC Products Overview


VALID 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NCNTRL STATES AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN STATES. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN OCCUR IN THE MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY/DAY 7...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BUT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ATTM...WILL NOT ADD AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT TO THE OUTLOOK. ..BROYLES.. 10/23/2013
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
This is the product of the Rawinsonde (Weather Balloon). It's main
purpose is to determine the atmospheres stability, winds, moisture
and temperature profiles.

Weather Holding Pattern

Long range forecasts for Wednesday of next week call for afternoon highs near 75.  The question is,  are temperatures that far out even to be taken seriously.  I am going to look at that even closer this evening and try to get a sense of where everything will be situated.   Wind direction,  cloud and Jet Stream along with thickness patterns.

It felt a bit nippy out here today in Central North Carolina.   This morning we experienced some light rain and drizzle.   As well the clouds have thinned out and went from 7/10s to about 2/10 this afternoon.    This trend will continue tonight and tomorrow.

https://i0.wp.com/forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

This evening is going to be more of a temperature forecast.  Generally the lowest temperature after a cold front is like 24-48hrs after passage.    And fronts depending on how strong and stacked will vary due to the density of that airmass.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/300_131023_12.gif

The Jetstreams are generally noted as any wind in excess of 50 knots.   Temperatures like frontal boundaries are pushed along by these Jets.   The flags are each equal to 50k,  so two would be 100,  three 150.    The single lines are 10 for a full barb and 5 for a 1/2.

Wind Speed & Direction

Wind speed. A combination of long/short barbs and pennants indicate the speed of the wind in station weather plots rounded to the nearest 5 knots. Calm wind is indicated by a large circle drawn around the skycover symbol.

One long barb is used to indicate each 10 knots with the short barb representing 5 knots. At 50 knots, the barbs changes to a pennant. For wind speeds higher than 50 knots, long and short barbs are used again in combination with the pennant(s). (See examples below.)

Observed
wind
speed
0-2 kts
(0-2 mph)
3-7 kts
(3-8 mph)
8-12 kts
(9-14 mph)
13-17 kts
(15-20 mph)
18-22 kts
(21-25 mph)
23-27 kts
(26-31 mph)
28-32 kts
(32-37 mph)
33-37 kts
(38-43 mph)
48-52 kts
(55-60 mph)
53-57 kts
(61-66 mph)
58-62 kts
(67-71 mph)
63-67 kts
(73-77 mph)
98-102 kts
(113-117 mph)
102-107 kts
(119-123 mph)
Rounded
to the
nearest 5
0 kts 5 kts 10 kts 15 kts 20 kts 25 kts 30 kts 35 kts 50 kts 55 kts 60 kts 65 kts 100 kts 105 kts
Plotted as 0 knot wind plot 5 knot wind plot 10 knot wind plot 15 knot wind plot 20 knot wind plot 25 knots wind plot 30 knots wind plot 35 knots wind plot 50 knots wind plot 55 knots wind plot 60 knots wind plot 65 knots wind plot 100 knots wind plot 105 knots wind plot

 

Wind FROM 340°
(NNW)
Wind FROM 040°
(NE)
Wind FROM 190°
(S)

The wind direction is indicated by the long shaft. The shaft will point to the direction FROM which the wind is blowing. The direction is based upon a 36-point compass.


These parameters are defined internationally and gives the user a simple way of interpreting the symbols (synoptics).      The National Weather Service (NWS) has it’s own weather school which break down what these weather codes infer.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/jetstream/synoptic/sfc_plot_symbols.htm

High and low pressure indicated by isobars The diagram to the left shows winds circulating around the Low southward and the High to the left does the same thing.    This kind of circulation will bring colder weather.

SPC Products Overview

Wednesday Morning Weather – October 23rd, 2013 0325L Eastern

Still numbed by the loss of my fellow weather forecaster and best friend,  here goes.

Latest daily minimum temperature map

The temperatures are a great place to start and seeing as there is not a lot of specificity to the actual synoptic (weather pattern) we can pretty safely say that colder weather is coming.

Additionally it is hard to get a real bead on just how cold as cold decks,  some winds and other wild cards are yet be discovered.   Temperatures are in the zone where any real Cyclogenesis (Low pressure forming) could through everything out the window and those low precipitation chances could change rapidly.  

With that said and in particular the Eastern part of the US and North Carolina in particular will see temperatures actually bottoming out near freezing and this is all dependent on just how cold it gets.   One forecast near the weekend have lows around 27 in the Greensboro to Raleigh areas.   More on that later.

Satellite weather is rather conclusive  as weak high pressure and a series of disturbances and colder air move through the region.   

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

Areas of green and especially the weather across South Florida and the Florida Keys will see some rain/rainshowers.   You will notice that the rain is somewhat limited but remainder this can change in a few hours.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

Valid above Thursday to Friday 7am respectively.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

Above which is from Friday to Saturday at 7am  is a low off the coast of North Carolina but it appears it is too far eastward but you can see how these things can change.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Above is the two day composite and you can an increase in potential precipitation with the Low over South Florida elongated but not moving much.  That forecast valid from the the 26th to the 28th.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Of note here on the forecast precipitation from the 28th thru the 30th a fairly vigorous Low is moving eastward across the country.   That WILL be a major weather producer.  If thickness values (amount of cold air above) is enough then snow is a definite outcome.

This weather will also arrive somewhere between Wednesday and Thursday of next week for the Carolinas.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...VALID 06Z WED OCT 23 2013 - 12Z THU OCT 24 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
Day 1 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.Day 2 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.Day 3 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.

Forecast for the next three days as far as it pertains to rain and snow with the blue
areas being snow. Will keep you posted through the week.

 

Good bye SMSgt Floyd Parton – Krakatoa Forever

I remember our time as team members in Little Rock,  and the many discussions we had between forecasts and observations and other associated duties.     It was a fun time and a few adventures but like a bottle of good wine,  it’s contents empty.   The only difference is the memories will be etched in my mind and though I still don’t understand the loss I am feeling,   my heart goes out to you and Kim and your beautiful daughter Wendy.

We used to talk about Bob Dylan and those were the days we lived in.   The War in Vietnam was all but over but our experiences both in the weather field and out of it I will always cherish.   We were on a team together and we were ‘Krakatoa’.   I was in demand because I was the top observer there and our team won a lot of awards.

More than that,  Floyd was a kind man.    Gentle in spirit and a very intelligent person and a fine NCO.   We had often talked about this day and the days in between.  That matter how long we were in different places,   we would always be friends.

Talking to Kim tonight,  I feel the pain though she is strong and not sure if she is going back to Thailand.    Her daughter Wendy was always a sweetheart and she is comforting Mom while dealing with the loss.

Weather Tuesday, October 22, 2013 0130 L

current color enhanced goes east infrared image

In the Central Gulf of Mexico, a vigorous Low is setting up and clearly indicated at Satellite Imagery this morning,  while across parts of Ohio and Indiana,   winter storm warning are in effect.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

As we roll on towards the middle to later portions of the week we will more correctly figure out where the Lows are and where they may be going.   And more than anything else,  these situations may play into a potential wintry situation across the Southeast United States from the Lower Mississippi Valley to across North and South Carolina.

With the High Pressure area across the Desert Southwest will steer Canadian Winds southward and pushing a series of cold fronts southward and a significant drop in Temperatures as the week goes on.   This could be very interesting and we will keep you posted as this fluid situation gradually evolves.

Latest Min Temp Map

The low temperatures across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes will pose the biggest threat for this region as a cutoff Low aided and abetted by a Cold Frontal Occlusion should create a stable steady snow with some Lake Effect issues actually enhancing precipitation along with the aforementioned Winter Weather Advisory.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-222030-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
427 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

HAZARDS: FROST.

TIMING: 4 AM TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION: A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES
AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: FROST AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MOST
NIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS MAY HARM OR KILL ANY
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALSO...RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO STICK WITH THE GROUND
AND SURFACES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE...MORE LIKE A NORMAL
LATE NOVEMBER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

.COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INDIANAPOLIS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-221000-
/O.CON.KIND.FR.Y.0005.131022T0800Z-131022T1300Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
950 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...OVERNIGHT LOWS 31 TO 34 DEGREES

* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SENSITIVE
  OUTDOOR PLANTS COULD BE KILLED

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

North Carolina -
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM MONDAY... SPLIT FLOW NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS...FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RESPECTIVELY...WILL MERGE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF PHASING OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN EACH STREAM...ONE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND THE OTHER OVER THE RIO GRANDE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE COMBINED HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT/ FORCING FOR ASCENT FOCUSED IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN THE MIXED PHASE CLOUD LAYER. THERE WILL CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE GOOD COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL RADAR ECHOES...BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SUBLIMATE/EVAPORATE AND RESULT IN JUST PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM MIDDAY THROUGH SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO MON - IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT TUE EVENING-NIGHT...HOWEVER...AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO THE VA CAPES. THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCES OF THIS LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEPTH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. LOWS AGAIN 48 TO 54 ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 PM MONDAY... AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED AS A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SERIES OF MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY A THIRD ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRST...ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT... A SECONDARY POLAR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COOL NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE 62-70 RANGE WEST TO EAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN..MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG DPVA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP TO 1310M FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING. THESE VALUES SUGGEST LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARD NC. FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS APPEAR ALMOST CERTAIN SATURDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FREEZE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE IN THE MODELS BEYOND SATURDAY REGARDING A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND THE TROUGH MAY NOT RELOAD OVER THE EASTERN US. WILL SHOW A SLOW WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE BETTER RESOLVED. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
— Changed Discussion —
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

THICK CIRRUS CANOPY OVERHEAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL PUSH A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT ALONG WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE ENSUING DRY AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD:
BREEZY WNW-NW WIND OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY NWLY CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
— End Changed Discussion —


&&

NFL – NFL and Drastic Increase in Injruies

The National Football League often depicted as the No Fun League is at it again.   This time a nearly 50% increase in serious injuries seems to poke holes in player safety making the NFL look more like a M.A.S.H.  unit than a contact sport.    Did anyone get that part…  Roger Goodell?   Your silly butt is more worried about Dez Bryant’s endzone antics and what color socks they wear that the real issues go either unaddressed or making new rules like someone ‘pushing.’   THERE’S NO PUSHING IN THE NFL!!!

Pushing?  Maybe they should have charging fouls or better no hitting below the belt.  You know like in boxing.   Maybe we need including Nuns wanting to take a crack?  At this rate we will be having players stay in college or join the Synchronized Swimming team where contact is more common.      Now starting on defense at all 11 positions is the kicker.   I volunteer Martin Automatica.

Oooops..  I did it again!!!1

Mr Goodell you are that guy.   The guy who avoided the draft because the rigors of sports doesn’t apply.   I guess you are too busy fining Suh so you won’t be sued?  Talk of irony but you are a probably a lawyer anyway.  

Momma drama

Now we have players unsure if this is flag or touch football and suing over the height of astro-turf.   I think your idea on kick off returns and making them more rare is a good start.  Pretty there will be more hitting in a lingerie team and a lot less fun to watch.

Pretty soon teams will need 100 players just to get to Bye Week,  I guess the upside is that more regulars will be home for Thanksgiving and Christmas.   This can’t be good.

The other issue that I see is the scores in the NFL are roughly equivalent to that of the Arena Football League.    And why is that?   Defenses can only tackle every other Sunday! I bet Ray Lewis got out at the right time.  

Can you say,  ‘roid rage’?  

 

Maybe this is Suh should go to the NHL where his skills at cross-checking will be better utilitized.    I bet that even Tonya Harding hits harder than NFL Lineman and not by choice.    Maybe we can get Skip Bayless as a replacement player or having half-time shows featuring Jim Everett and Jim ‘ I got my butt beat on ESPN’  Rome for the rubber match of their epic battle.

Pretty soon players will opt for offense and somehow that will drive up scores even more.     I can imagine scores surpassing that of the NBA sans Michael Jordan,   Larry,  Curly and Mo.  By the way,  the fourth stooge has hired expert refs to break the inane while more guys go off on backboards and shopping carts.

All this has me looking for equipment malfunctions on the cheerleaders!  I wonder if excessive celebrations pertain to the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders as well,

What is the ‘bottom-line’  here?   You got it.

 

Monday – Oct 21st, 2013 6:30am

A pretty interesting interesting set-up weather wise today and through the weekend on the Eastern Seaboard.  The essential feature will be the cold and then whatever water source.   We are discussing a perfect storm scenario where this cold air gets enough moisture to make a winter storm possible.   Of course it is too early to say when or where exactly but you know how these things go.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

From the Great Lakes into Western Pennsylvania and New York the chance for snow will increase especially at the Low that right now is situated in the area of Great Lakes.   As show below the areas with highest snow probability is listed.

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 06 FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN...            
  

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF
SOUTH DAKOTA.

WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 PM CDT...AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1004 MB...29.65 IN...WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMED TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE AROUND THE STORM...THE COVERAGE OF THE SNOW
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAD BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING.
NEVERTHELESS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINED IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWSTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH
WERE OBSERVED.                                        

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 400 AM CDT THU OCT
03 THROUGH 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 05...

...COLORADO...
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 1.9 E              19.6                    
COALMONT 9.3 SSE                     13.1                    
COLLBRAN 4 S                         12.5                    
YAMPA 5.1 S                          11.4                    
MESA 6 S                             11.0                    
OAK CREEK 5.5 E                       8.9                    
CARBONDALE 7 NNE                      6.0                    
MEEKER 2 WSW                          6.0                    
VAIL 2 W                              6.0                    
RIDGWAY 2 NW                          5.0                    
WOLCOTT 2 N                           4.5                    

...NORTH DAKOTA...
REEDER                                9.0                    
NEW LEIPZIG                           8.0                    
NEW SALEM                             8.0                    
RHAME                                 7.0                    
BOWMAN                                6.0                    
REGENT 4 E                            6.0                    
FLASHER                               3.5                    
BISMARK 2 NNW                         3.0                    

...NEBRASKA...
CRAWFORD                             13.0                    
AGATE 18 SE                          10.0                    
CHADRON                              10.0                    
GORDON                                4.0                    

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SILVER CITY                          47.0                    
LEAD                                 43.5                    
PIEDMONT 1 NNW                       35.0                    
RAPID CITY DOWNTOWN                  31.0                    
WHITEWOOD 4.2 NNW                    30.4                    
PORCUPINE 5 E                        30.0                    
HERMOSA 5 W                          29.0                    
SPEARFISH                            26.0                    
WHITEWOOD 4 NNW                      25.0                    
BISON 8 SE                           24.0                    
MARTIN                               24.0                    
SUNDANCE                             24.0                    
DOWNTOWN PIEDMONT 1 NNW              20.0                    
RAPID CITY 1 E                       18.3                    
FAITH 36.3 W                         18.0                    
WRIGHT                               15.0                    

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...COLORADO...
LIMON                                 60                    

...NEBRASKA...
HARRISON                              70                    
CHADRON ST PARK 3 NNE                 67                    

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
ELLSWORTH AFB                         71                    
USTA                                  71                    
RAPID CITY DOWNTOWN                   68                    
RAPID CITY 1 E                        67                    
BRIDGER 2 SW                          64                    
WHITLOCKS BAY REC 3 SSW               63                    
PENNINGTON                            59                    
WASTA 3 WNW                           59                    
WIND CAVE VISITORS 1 W                59                    
RAPID CITY AIRPORT                    54                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...MONTANA...
PONY 5 SW                            32.0                    
MCALLISTER 10 WNW                    24.0                    
MELVILLE 4 W                         21.3                    
MELVILLE 0.3 W                       18.0                    
RED LODGE 1.9 S                      18.0                    
BIG SKY 21 S                         17.0                    
JACKSON 14 SSW                       16.0                    
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS 18 W           14.0                    
LIVINGSTON 6.6 ESE                   13.3                    
GRANT 18 W                           12.0                    

...WYOMING...
CASPER 22 SSE                        34.0                    
BARNUM 13 W                          27.0                    
BUFFALO 13 WSW                       24.0                    
CASPER 7 S                           24.0                    
LANDER 19 SSW                        20.0                    
MUDDY GAP                            18.0                    
CASPER AIRPORT                       15.0                    
POWDER RIVER SCHOOL                  15.0                    
RAWLINS                              14.1                    
RAWLINS 34 NE                        14.0                    
LANDER 5.7 SW                        13.8                    
BOSLER 12 ENE                        12.0                    
CASPER 2.6 E                         12.0                    


AS THE STORM BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE
STORM CONTINUES TO WARM...THE SNOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN TONIGHT.  A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE THE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.             

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STORM SUMMARY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS EVENT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

KONG

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 429 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 VALID 12Z MON OCT 21 2013 - 12Z THU OCT 24 2013 ...DAY 1... ...WESTERN GREAT LAKES... THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THE FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON IS STILL ON TAP DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AS THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR IS TRANSPORTED SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND THE WARM WATER. THAT SUGGESTS WHAT MODEST ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE INLAND. ...DAYS 2 AND 3... THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

Weather Forecaster – Sunday 20th, 2013 130AM L

Forecast highs will incrementally decrease and a more winter like pattern is more evident now.   High Pressure will manifest itself over  the Eastern Seaboard.      Frost advisories and dense for tonight and tomorrow morning. 

 

current color enhanced goes east infrared image

 

A winter weaher advisory for tonight and tomorrow across parts of Montana and North Dakota.   An early winter perhaps a tease of warming temperatures before the next major system produces steady snow.   A very strong fetch of cold air will pack in around the Upper and Lower Mississippi.       

Valid WW Image