Weather Guessing by Numbers

Weather Update –  Wednesday October 23, 2013  2200 L  

Latest daily precip map

The past few days has seen some rain over parts of the state with Greensboro to Raleigh,  North Carolina.    Changes ar coming but mostly cooler to cold as the first freeze of the season comes to the greater Greensboro.

That leads into the football weekend and here in Carolina it will be all good.   But just to make the haters happy and I am one of them,   I  put in a slight chance of showers just to keep with the Einsteins.

Latest daily minimum temperature map

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...PATCHY FROST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-240900-
/O.CON.KRAH.FR.Y.0004.131024T0900Z-131024T1300Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...
BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...
ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
335 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
  PIEDMONT... MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 33 TO 37 DEGREES TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK OF FROST WILL BE IN
  THE RURAL OUTLYING AREAS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THOSE
  WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT TENDER
  VEGETATION. ALSO...SENSITIVE POTTED PLANTS THAT ARE NORMALLY
  LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM THE
  COLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

SPC Products Overview


VALID 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NCNTRL STATES AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN STATES. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN OCCUR IN THE MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY/DAY 7...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME CONCERNING THE POSITION OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BUT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. ATTM...WILL NOT ADD AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT TO THE OUTLOOK. ..BROYLES.. 10/23/2013
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
This is the product of the Rawinsonde (Weather Balloon). It's main
purpose is to determine the atmospheres stability, winds, moisture
and temperature profiles.

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