Wednesday Morning Weather – October 23rd, 2013 0325L Eastern

Still numbed by the loss of my fellow weather forecaster and best friend,  here goes.

Latest daily minimum temperature map

The temperatures are a great place to start and seeing as there is not a lot of specificity to the actual synoptic (weather pattern) we can pretty safely say that colder weather is coming.

Additionally it is hard to get a real bead on just how cold as cold decks,  some winds and other wild cards are yet be discovered.   Temperatures are in the zone where any real Cyclogenesis (Low pressure forming) could through everything out the window and those low precipitation chances could change rapidly.  

With that said and in particular the Eastern part of the US and North Carolina in particular will see temperatures actually bottoming out near freezing and this is all dependent on just how cold it gets.   One forecast near the weekend have lows around 27 in the Greensboro to Raleigh areas.   More on that later.

Satellite weather is rather conclusive  as weak high pressure and a series of disturbances and colder air move through the region.   

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

Areas of green and especially the weather across South Florida and the Florida Keys will see some rain/rainshowers.   You will notice that the rain is somewhat limited but remainder this can change in a few hours.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif

Valid above Thursday to Friday 7am respectively.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

Above which is from Friday to Saturday at 7am  is a low off the coast of North Carolina but it appears it is too far eastward but you can see how these things can change.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Above is the two day composite and you can an increase in potential precipitation with the Low over South Florida elongated but not moving much.  That forecast valid from the the 26th to the 28th.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

Of note here on the forecast precipitation from the 28th thru the 30th a fairly vigorous Low is moving eastward across the country.   That WILL be a major weather producer.  If thickness values (amount of cold air above) is enough then snow is a definite outcome.

This weather will also arrive somewhere between Wednesday and Thursday of next week for the Carolinas.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

...VALID 06Z WED OCT 23 2013 - 12Z THU OCT 24 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
Day 1 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.Day 2 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.Day 3 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.

Forecast for the next three days as far as it pertains to rain and snow with the blue
areas being snow. Will keep you posted through the week.

 

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