Weather Tuesday, October 22, 2013 0130 L

current color enhanced goes east infrared image

In the Central Gulf of Mexico, a vigorous Low is setting up and clearly indicated at Satellite Imagery this morning,  while across parts of Ohio and Indiana,   winter storm warning are in effect.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif

As we roll on towards the middle to later portions of the week we will more correctly figure out where the Lows are and where they may be going.   And more than anything else,  these situations may play into a potential wintry situation across the Southeast United States from the Lower Mississippi Valley to across North and South Carolina.

With the High Pressure area across the Desert Southwest will steer Canadian Winds southward and pushing a series of cold fronts southward and a significant drop in Temperatures as the week goes on.   This could be very interesting and we will keep you posted as this fluid situation gradually evolves.

Latest Min Temp Map

The low temperatures across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes will pose the biggest threat for this region as a cutoff Low aided and abetted by a Cold Frontal Occlusion should create a stable steady snow with some Lake Effect issues actually enhancing precipitation along with the aforementioned Winter Weather Advisory.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-222030-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
427 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

HAZARDS: FROST.

TIMING: 4 AM TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION: A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES
AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FROST TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: FROST AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MOST
NIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS MAY HARM OR KILL ANY
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALSO...RAIN SHOWERS MAY MIX WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO STICK WITH THE GROUND
AND SURFACES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. ANOTHER RAIN AND SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DISCUSSION: A COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE...MORE LIKE A NORMAL
LATE NOVEMBER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

.COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND WIDESPREAD FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INDIANAPOLIS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY FALL BELOW FREEZING.

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-221000-
/O.CON.KIND.FR.Y.0005.131022T0800Z-131022T1300Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
950 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...OVERNIGHT LOWS 31 TO 34 DEGREES

* IMPACTS...SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SENSITIVE
  OUTDOOR PLANTS COULD BE KILLED

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

North Carolina -
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM MONDAY... SPLIT FLOW NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS...FROM THE DESERT SW TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...RESPECTIVELY...WILL MERGE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF PHASING OF A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN EACH STREAM...ONE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND THE OTHER OVER THE RIO GRANDE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE COMBINED HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT/ FORCING FOR ASCENT FOCUSED IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN THE MIXED PHASE CLOUD LAYER. THERE WILL CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE GOOD COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL RADAR ECHOES...BUT MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SUBLIMATE/EVAPORATE AND RESULT IN JUST PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM MIDDAY THROUGH SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO MON - IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT TUE EVENING-NIGHT...HOWEVER...AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TO THE VA CAPES. THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCES OF THIS LIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DEPTH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. LOWS AGAIN 48 TO 54 ON AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 PM MONDAY... AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED AS A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US. A TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A SERIES OF MOSTLY MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL PASSAGES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY A THIRD ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRST...ON THE HEELS OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT... A SECONDARY POLAR FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A COOL NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE 62-70 RANGE WEST TO EAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN..MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG DPVA. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP TO 1310M FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING. THESE VALUES SUGGEST LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TOWARD NC. FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS APPEAR ALMOST CERTAIN SATURDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A FREEZE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE IN THE MODELS BEYOND SATURDAY REGARDING A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND THE TROUGH MAY NOT RELOAD OVER THE EASTERN US. WILL SHOW A SLOW WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE BETTER RESOLVED. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
— Changed Discussion —
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

THICK CIRRUS CANOPY OVERHEAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL PUSH A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT ALONG WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
BEFORE ENSUING DRY AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD:
BREEZY WNW-NW WIND OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY NWLY CONDITIONS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE
CAROLINAS WILL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
— End Changed Discussion —


&&
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One thought on “Weather Tuesday, October 22, 2013 0130 L

  1. There are two factors this morning across the southeast that will inhibit some of that cold air and the first will be the cloud clover and then the rain. Colder air will slide in by the time the third front moves through,

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