Monday – Oct 21st, 2013 6:30am

A pretty interesting interesting set-up weather wise today and through the weekend on the Eastern Seaboard.  The essential feature will be the cold and then whatever water source.   We are discussing a perfect storm scenario where this cold air gets enough moisture to make a winter storm possible.   Of course it is too early to say when or where exactly but you know how these things go.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif

From the Great Lakes into Western Pennsylvania and New York the chance for snow will increase especially at the Low that right now is situated in the area of Great Lakes.   As show below the areas with highest snow probability is listed.

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 06 FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN...            
  

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF
SOUTH DAKOTA.

WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 PM CDT...AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1004 MB...29.65 IN...WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMED TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE AROUND THE STORM...THE COVERAGE OF THE SNOW
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAD BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING.
NEVERTHELESS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINED IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWSTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH
WERE OBSERVED.                                        

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 400 AM CDT THU OCT
03 THROUGH 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 05...

...COLORADO...
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 1.9 E              19.6                    
COALMONT 9.3 SSE                     13.1                    
COLLBRAN 4 S                         12.5                    
YAMPA 5.1 S                          11.4                    
MESA 6 S                             11.0                    
OAK CREEK 5.5 E                       8.9                    
CARBONDALE 7 NNE                      6.0                    
MEEKER 2 WSW                          6.0                    
VAIL 2 W                              6.0                    
RIDGWAY 2 NW                          5.0                    
WOLCOTT 2 N                           4.5                    

...NORTH DAKOTA...
REEDER                                9.0                    
NEW LEIPZIG                           8.0                    
NEW SALEM                             8.0                    
RHAME                                 7.0                    
BOWMAN                                6.0                    
REGENT 4 E                            6.0                    
FLASHER                               3.5                    
BISMARK 2 NNW                         3.0                    

...NEBRASKA...
CRAWFORD                             13.0                    
AGATE 18 SE                          10.0                    
CHADRON                              10.0                    
GORDON                                4.0                    

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
SILVER CITY                          47.0                    
LEAD                                 43.5                    
PIEDMONT 1 NNW                       35.0                    
RAPID CITY DOWNTOWN                  31.0                    
WHITEWOOD 4.2 NNW                    30.4                    
PORCUPINE 5 E                        30.0                    
HERMOSA 5 W                          29.0                    
SPEARFISH                            26.0                    
WHITEWOOD 4 NNW                      25.0                    
BISON 8 SE                           24.0                    
MARTIN                               24.0                    
SUNDANCE                             24.0                    
DOWNTOWN PIEDMONT 1 NNW              20.0                    
RAPID CITY 1 E                       18.3                    
FAITH 36.3 W                         18.0                    
WRIGHT                               15.0                    

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...COLORADO...
LIMON                                 60                    

...NEBRASKA...
HARRISON                              70                    
CHADRON ST PARK 3 NNE                 67                    

...SOUTH DAKOTA...
ELLSWORTH AFB                         71                    
USTA                                  71                    
RAPID CITY DOWNTOWN                   68                    
RAPID CITY 1 E                        67                    
BRIDGER 2 SW                          64                    
WHITLOCKS BAY REC 3 SSW               63                    
PENNINGTON                            59                    
WASTA 3 WNW                           59                    
WIND CAVE VISITORS 1 W                59                    
RAPID CITY AIRPORT                    54                    

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...MONTANA...
PONY 5 SW                            32.0                    
MCALLISTER 10 WNW                    24.0                    
MELVILLE 4 W                         21.3                    
MELVILLE 0.3 W                       18.0                    
RED LODGE 1.9 S                      18.0                    
BIG SKY 21 S                         17.0                    
JACKSON 14 SSW                       16.0                    
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS 18 W           14.0                    
LIVINGSTON 6.6 ESE                   13.3                    
GRANT 18 W                           12.0                    

...WYOMING...
CASPER 22 SSE                        34.0                    
BARNUM 13 W                          27.0                    
BUFFALO 13 WSW                       24.0                    
CASPER 7 S                           24.0                    
LANDER 19 SSW                        20.0                    
MUDDY GAP                            18.0                    
CASPER AIRPORT                       15.0                    
POWDER RIVER SCHOOL                  15.0                    
RAWLINS                              14.1                    
RAWLINS 34 NE                        14.0                    
LANDER 5.7 SW                        13.8                    
BOSLER 12 ENE                        12.0                    
CASPER 2.6 E                         12.0                    


AS THE STORM BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE
STORM CONTINUES TO WARM...THE SNOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN TONIGHT.  A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
BEFORE THE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.             

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STORM SUMMARY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS EVENT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

KONG

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 429 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013 VALID 12Z MON OCT 21 2013 - 12Z THU OCT 24 2013 ...DAY 1... ...WESTERN GREAT LAKES... THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THE FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON IS STILL ON TAP DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AS THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR IS TRANSPORTED SOUTH AND EASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND THE WARM WATER. THAT SUGGESTS WHAT MODEST ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE INLAND. ...DAYS 2 AND 3... THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
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