Weather Outlook Thursday Oct 17, 2013

Tropical Weather Outlook

The Hurricane Season is quickly winding down with only a minor disturbance in the Atlantic and this is moving away.  Additionally it is not expected to intensify as generally it’s location is not conducive to formation.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES
NORTH OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART


Thursday expect showers and possible Thunderstorms across North Carolina
by midday to this evening with the strongest chances expected for Friday
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif
This forecast position above is valid til tomorrow morning
Friday 18th, 2013 High Pressure over North Carolina is
weakening as it moves it.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif
The above chart is valid until Saturday 19th, 2013 at 0700L
This system is clearly out by the overnight period into
Saturday Morning.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif
This is valid above until Sunday 20th, 2013 0700L Eastern
A vigorous Low over the Northwestern Gulf will elongate
and spread into Georgia and South Carolina as the sytem moves
East and Northeast

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif
This is a 48HR forecast and shows a potential rain area
extending back to the Central NC as the system continues to work
East and Northeast.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif
This is the 7 day forecast valid until Thursday 22nd, 2013
at 0700L. Indicating there the weather will be unsettled
through around Thursday-Friday.
The Weather Pattern is very complex with a series of lows
spreading across the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes.
Water Vapor Satellite Image

By looking at the Satellite Imagery the rain fall rates are not
that impressive.







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