As a member of the fraternity of forecasters I have my own take on all things weather. First is the Gore Zombies who meticulously support his hyperbole and say that we Meteorologists are not defacto Climatologists. I know that I am addressing ‘talking points’ when they say forecaster/meteorologists are not experts on climatology.
There is a lot of unwarranted attacks and most have no bearing or relevance on the topic at hand. Weather is not political and it should never be.
Today we have an ersatz Hurricane sitting in Northern Gulf of Mexico trying to figure out where to go and forecasters trying to figure out where it is moving. In 2004, we had a Hurricane do a pirouette and hit the state three different times. I also spent two weeks without electricity at home because one of those four storms decided to make it personal.
So if you say we don’t know what we are doing, you may be right but then again these systems are not prone to reason. Winds are steering currents but what if you do not have any winds to give you a clue? Normally you have a motion that goes north, northeast and east and away from land. And that is okay except Height Falls (lower pressure a loft) and even cold fronts that hold their own kind of sway.
You also have the Bermuda High which you cannot overcome and the systems largely just go around it. El Nino (ENSO) and La Nina. Twins with a propensity for throwing all theories into virtual chaos. The forecaster battles a ton of information to and must decide whether that formation is relevant or not. Sometimes we go with our instincts and sometimes those are miscalculated.
All these different airmasses, long and short wave patterns, vorticity, Coriolis Polar Jet, Subtropical Jet and a myriad of other variables so convoluted and ambiguous that it is any wonder who we can digest it all. Climatology is the basis for every single forecast, bare none.
So if Karen is doing the Salsa or the Horizontal Mamba, you know why or least have a clue to these mysteries;